A review of things you need to know before you go home Tuesday; cautious investors, more credit card use, fewer farm sales, far fewer lifestyle block sales, no uptick for dairy, swaps rise, NZD stable, new bitcoin record

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today.

DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.

INVESTORS MORE CAUTIOUS, STILL UNAWARE
New Zealand's household investors are growing more cautious, according to the ASB Investor Confidence Report. The quarterly report reveals net investor confidence (the difference between those who feel their return on investment will get better in the year ahead, and those who feel it will get worse) has fallen to +19% net positive in the three months to September (Q3) from +23 the previous quarter (Q2) and from the two-year high of +25 in the first quarter of the year (Q1). Despite the dent in confidence, the level is still relatively high and remains well above the low of +3% seen at the start of 2016. Worryingly, this 'wisdom of the crowd' survey shows opinions fairly uninformed about recent events and trends.

TICKET-CLIPPERS WINNING
We are using our credit cards more frequently. Billings by non-tourists are up +7.3%, billings on tourist cards are up +16.9% over the same month a year ago. That has pushed up the total balances outstanding by +5.5% to $6.965 bln. At that rate of growth we will owe more more than $7 bln when the November data is released. It took six years to go from $5 to $6 bln outstanding balances, but only four years to go from $6 to $7 bln. But 'only' $4 bln of that bears interest, growing a more modest +3.9% year-on-year. This data shows we are using our cards more for tap-and-go transactions, helping Visa and MasterCard clip the ticket more at the expense of the cheaper eftpos systems. Users don't notice but merchants feel the cost significantly. Visa and MasterCard advertising works.

A FIVE YEAR LOW
There were only 85 farms sold in October in the whole country, the same number as in September. The October 2017 is -19% lower than the same month a year ago, and the lowest October since 2012. REINZ reported only five dairy farm sales, one in Northland and the Waikato, three in Southland. There is a large number of farms on the market in Waikato and Southland in particular, and zero sales in the other main dairy areas of Taranaki, Manawatu and Canterbury. In contrast, arable and horticulture farms are selling well.

DOWN BY A QUARTER
At 538, the sales of lifestyle blocks were at a six year low for an October. Overall, -25% fewer lifestyle blocks were sold in October 2017 than the same month a year ago. They were particularly weak in Auckland and Otago.

GOING THE WRONG WAY
The head of APRA has made the point today that the trend in non-performing housing loans is upward, despite a relatively benign environment for lenders. With historically low interest rates and an unemployment rate that for the past few years has drifted lower, "an a priori expectation might have been for non performing housing loans to return to lower levels".

DAIRY UPDATE
There is another dairy auction tomorrow, and fingers are crossed for a better result. That seems unlikely but the derivatives platform suggests a 0.0% change. Fonterra also released its November Dairy Market update and that shows their October results were better than the GDT overall results. It also showed strong growth in dairy imports continues by China and in Asia. They reported further declines in dairy exports from New Zealand and Australia, but the EU has been having strong export growth. Milk production in New Zealand improved in October. European milk production increased for the fourth consecutive month. In October, Fonterra New Zealand milk collection increased +2% to 209 million kgMS and Fonterra Australia milk collection increased +31% to 18 million kgMS.

WHOLESALE RATES FIRM
Swap rates rose by +2 bps today acroos the board from 2 - 10 years. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.92%.

NZ DOLLAR DOWN, BITCOIN AT ANOTHER RECORD
The NZ dollar has held at it lower level and is still at 68.1 USc. On the cross rates we are at 90.3 AUc and at 58 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 71.2. But the bitcoin price is back in record territory today, up to US$8,246 a +1.8% gain. (NZ$12,110)

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