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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; Narev's replacement found, RBNZ leaves NZD to it, more interest/fewer repayments, swaps up, steeper, NZD holds but slips against the Aussie

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; Narev's replacement found, RBNZ leaves NZD to it, more interest/fewer repayments, swaps up, steeper, NZD holds but slips against the Aussie

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No more rate changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ASB has tweaked three term deposit rates, one up, two down. Details here.

THE INTERNAL CANDIDATE WINS
The internal appointment of Matt Comyn to the chief executive role at Aussie banking giant CBA is something of a surprise to outsiders who thought a new broom would arrive to clean up their culture issues. Comyn will replace Kiwi Ian Narev. But their board obviously rank the risks to the strong financial performance of the company is of key importance, and Comyn has had a big hand in making the retail arm of CBA a real powerhouse - and the issues the bank has in the public mind were in other divisions (Comminsure, BankWest, risk management). And CBA has a long history of making this appointment from executives inside the bank. CBA is the parent of New Zealand bank, ASB.

HANDS OFF
The latest data release (F5) from the RBNZ shows that the central bank made no forays into the currency markets in December to try and influence the NZD. In fact, they haven't intervened since the July-September 2015 when they spend about NZ$400 mln in an ineffective effort. (They also spent $0.5 bln in August 2014 in a failed effort.) But you have to wonder if the RBNZ has been fielding calls from the interventionist deputy Prime Minister, one who will be Prime Minister for six weeks in 2017. Maybe he will relish playing Robert Muldoon again.

MORE INTEREST, FEWER REPAYMENTS
In 2017, Kiwi mortgage payers spent $11.0 bln in interest on their housing loans. That was +5.5% more than they spent in 2016. This was mainly because we borrowed +5.8% more. However, there was a benchmark breached in the October to December quarter; for the first time ever, the total mortgage interest bill exceeded $3 bln in a 90 day period. In 2017 we drew down $65.8 bln in new loans, and that was far less than the $75.5 bln draw down in 2016. However we paid of fewer loans in full, and made (slightly) fewer repayments over and the above the scheduled repayments.

STILL $1 BLN PER MONTH
New lending to residential housing investors, which reached it peak at $2.5 bln in May 2016, was back down to under $1.1 bln in December 2017. Actually, what is surprising is that it hasn't sunk below $1 bln per month for the last six months of 2016. The screws weren't on as tight as many imagined. And lending to first home buyers is even lower, at just over $750 mln per month.

IN FASHION
Just as the Sydney public transport unions start to take strike action, the Auckland union is looking at doing the same in support of their "health and safety" (read pay) claims. Give someone an ability to choke a core public service, and they will. Bold new claims on the public purse are just starting.

WHOLESALE RATES HOLD
Swap rates were up +1 bp for the two year term, +2 bps for the five year term, and +3 bps for the ten year term. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.88%. The UST 10yr is up +7 bps at 2.69% and most of that rise is in the past two hours. In China, their sovereign 10yr yield is down -1 bp today to 3.97%. The NZ Govt 10yr yield is now at 2.94% (up +1 bp). And the Aussie 10yr is also +2 bps higher at 2.84%. Local market activity is very low today given the upper North Island's public holiday.

NZ DOLLAR LITTLE CHANGED
The NZ dollar is largely unchanged from this time on Friday at 73.3 USc. But the Aussie dollar has firmed by +½c and we are now at 90.6 AUc and 59.1 euro cents. This puts the TWI-5 at 73.9.

BITCOIN UNCHANGED
Bitcoin is now at US$11,365, virtually unchanged from this time on Friday. (In Asian markets, gold is lower.)

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ
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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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6 Comments

Those RBNZ figures might be a bit misleading. Is that how much they used to sway the currency? If so, wouldn’t it be more balanced to report the profit/loss on the transaction. Because that reflects the cost of the action. The amount invested is somewhat meaningless.

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Ok, which one of you commenters here wrote or contributed to this anti-Labour pro-National Forbes story?!
Woe is us, NZ is doomed, and NZ is no longer an open economy willing to be ‘farmed’ by global corporates and ‘investors’.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jareddillian/2017/11/20/new-zealand-an-eco…

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Kiwis ahead of international speculation and laundering.....surely not?

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So what are the implications of rising US Treasury yields?
Rising NZ interest rates?

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So what are the implications of rising US Treasury yields?
Rising NZ interest rates? – Umm, yes.
So what are the implications of rising US Treasury yields?
Rising International rates? – Umm, yes.
So what are the implications of rising US Treasury yields?
Unraveling of all manner of financial dislocations – possibly yes.
So please return to your seats and buckle up – it could get a little bumpy.

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Intervention isn’t necessarily a bad thing bad – one way or another every country does so.
It is the methodology and rational of the intervention that could cause question, but not intervention per se.
Free market ideology is just that, ideology, and flawed.

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