A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; Co-op Bank trims rates, trade data very positive, personal bankruptcies low, Aussie confidence high, wholesale rates stable, NZD little changed

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No more rate changes to report today. Update: Housing NZ has today raised their 1 and 2 year fixed rates by a few basis points.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank reduced its 9 month and 1 year term deposit rates down by -10 bps to 3.40% and 3.50% respectively.

POSITIVE SURPRISE
Trade data out today brought an unexpected surprise, on the positive site. The monthly merchandise trade balance December 2017 was a +$640 mln surplus (or +12% of exports). The market was expecting a -$125 mln deficit. The surplus is the largest in any December month, and the largest in any month since March 2015 when it was +$661 mln. Export growth to China was strong, but there was also strong growth to Japan and Singapore. Exports of meat, logs and machinery all rose strongly in addition to dairy products. Exports were up +25.7% from the same month a year ago but imports on the other hand were only up +11.2%. Some of the strong December result may have come because some imports fell earlier into November. Full year 2017 exports rose +10.7% over 2016 and the goods trade deficit fewll -9.5%. And remember, New Zealand runs a services surplus offsetting a good portion of the deficit in goods.

POSITIVE TREND
Over the past ten years personal bankruptcy levels in Australia have been trending down. In 2009 they hit 28,277 but fell to 21,862 in 2012 and in 2017 fell sharply to 16,378. This data is not a sign of rising credit stress. In New Zealand the data shows a fall from 6,199 in 2009 to just 3,032 in 2017 (including Net Asset Procedures).

AUSSIE BUSINESS POSITIVE
And staying in Australia, the NAB business confidence survey for December was all positive. It rose 4 points to +11 index points to its highest level since July 2017, and missing market expectations of +12 index points by a narrow margin. NAB is "hopeful" that Australia will see above-trend economic growth in coming quarters, thanks to support from improving business investment and elevated levels of infrastructure construction. They still expect the first RBA hike to come in the second half of this year, "but only if the labor market and wages improve further and the property market holds steady".

BENCHMARK RATES STABLE
The UST 10 year is holding its new higher level of 2.71%. The Aussie 10 yr is at 2.86% (+2 bps), the Chinese 10yr is at 3.96% (+1 bp), and the New Zealand 10 yr is now at 2.94 (-1 bp). There is also little movement on wholesale swap rates; if they have changed it is +1 bp for the longer terms. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.88%.

NZ DOLLAR LITTLE CHANGED
The NZ dollar is largely unchanged from this time yesterday at 73.2 USc. The Aussie dollar is now at 90.5 AUc and 59.2 euro cents. This puts the TWI-5 unchanged at 73.9.

BITCOIN UNCHANGED
Bitcoin is now at US$11,136, just -$200 lower (-1.2%) than this time yesterday. (In Asian markets, gold is lower again and now at US$1,339.)