A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; F&P Finance cancelled, Westpac's low-ball offer, PSI slips, very low bankruptcies, economic forecasts, swaps up, NZD down

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes here today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

NON-BANK DEPOSIT TAKER LICENCE CANCELLED
Fisher & Paykel Finance has requested that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cancel its licence to be a non-bank deposit taker (NBDT) granted under the Non-Bank Deposit Takers Act 2013. This licence was cancelled on March 16, 2018.

NOT TOO ATTRACTIVE
Westpac has launched a five-year bond offer for $100 mln (plus unlimited oversubscriptions) that's likely to pay investors about 3.73% pa. That is less than their current retail 5 year term deposit offer of 4.10%. Perhaps professional fixed income investors don't realise, or perhaps their advisers aren't telling them. After all, this new Westpac bond will only be sold through advisers who will get their clip.

TAILING OFF
This is how BNZ's Craig Ebert summarised today's report of the February PSI: "The Performance of Services Index (PSI) remains encouragingly expansive. However, at the same time, it has slowed to about average, compared to its roaring rate of advance about this time last year. February’s PSI reading was a seasonally adjusted 55.0. This was a fraction below January’s result, of 55.7, but still above its long-term average of 54.4. More to the point, a year ago, in February 2017, the PSI was riding relatively high, at 58.5 (after a near record score, of 59.2, in January 2017). Relative to norms, the PSI index for new orders/business has kept a little ahead but for activity/sales and employment has slipped a bit below par. "

DOUBLE WHAMMY?
All eyes are on Fonterra's financials this Wednesday and the fallout from their flagging Beingmate investment. It is likely to be rocky. But we also have another dairy auction this week, also on Wednesday, and the signals from the derivatives market are also not looking too flash. At this time they suggest a -4.2% fall in the WMP price which, if it occurs, will be the largest slip since the -5.4% drop on November 7, 2017 and would unwind all the 2018 gains for WMP.

PERSONAL FINANCIAL STRESS VERY LOW
The latest update on personal bankruptcies shows the annual rate back to levels we last saw 13 years ago. On a population-adjusted basis, we now have this at record-low levels (our records start in 2004).

GOTCHA
Here's an oddity of corporate pricing. Regular readers will know that we track a healthy grocery shopping list each week. This week's buy cost is $164.81. The cost for the same week in 2017 was $163.67. So that is a +0.7% rise in a year (that is, nothing). But it is a +3.9% rise since the start of the year. Supermarket pricing is typically reduced in January and February but jumps for unexplained reasons in March.

CRYSTAL-BALL GAZING
The NZIER has updated its 'consensus forecasts'. Forecasts for household and Government spending have been revised up. Consumer confidence has rebounded in recent months, and this is expected to flow through to solid growth in household spending. Meanwhile, the Government has indicated more expansionary fiscal policy over its term as it undertakes new areas of spending. The outlook for business investment is more mixed, with some downward revisions for the coming year but a stronger outlook in the subsequent years. With the labour market showing continued strength, employment growth forecasts have been revised up, while forecasts for the unemployment rate have been revised down. Despite expectations of further tightening in the labour market, expectations of wage growth have been revised slightly lower beyond 2018. Inflation is still expected to remain contained through to 2021, with some slight downward revisions over the projection period.

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are up today. For durations of two years they are up +1 bp, for three to five years up +2 bps and for longer up +3 bps. This follows the UST 10yr which rose to 2.85% on Friday in New York (+3 bps) and is at 2.86% now. The Aussie Govt 10 yr is up +1 bp to 2.71%. The China 10 yr is down -4 bps at 3.83% and the NZ Govt 10 yr is down -2 bps to 2.89%. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.93%.

BITCOIN INCHES UP
The bitcoin price is holding its generally lower level but is up +1.3% from this time on Friday at US$8,190. However, over the weekend it did fall to as low as US$7,370.

NZ DOLLAR LOWER
The NZD has traded lower today by ½c since this time on Friday and is now at 72.1 USc. On the cross rates we are holding at 93.7 AUc and at 58.8 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 73.4.

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