Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here either.
STILL ON HOLD
In Wellington today, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr shocked no one with his decision to keep the OCR at 1.75%, but he is again leaving the door open for a cut, as well as a hike. No one is expecting any New Zealand change until 2019.
HOOKED ON A TAX DRUG
Australian homebuyers paid out over AU$21 bln in stamp duty to state governments during the 2017/18 financial year – and the total cost of the tax is expected to get even bigger over the next few years. The recent set of state Budgets envisage stamp duty revenues increasing by another +11% over the next four years. Data is from the Australian Housing Industry Association economist unit.
RURAL PAY ON THE MOVE UP
Pay in the rural sector is rising. A Fed Farmers survey of 940 employers across the dairy, sheep & beef, and arable sectors shows rises especially in skilled positions such as Assistant Herd Manager (+6.6%), Herd Manager (+5.5%) and Farm manager (+5.5%). There was also a more modest increase for the entry level farm assistant position (+2.8%). In the same period CPI inflation was +1.1%.
MORE VISITORS SPENDING MORE
The May data for tourism spending was released today by MBIE. Gains were strong. They highlighted UK and Chinese tourism spending which showed strong year-on-year growth in the three largest regions for tourism spend. UK spend was up +28% in Auckland, +25% in Canterbury and +28% in Otago, while Chinese spending was up +16% in Auckland, +19% in Canterbury and +14% in Otago.
NOT GROWING QUITE AS FAST
Growth in online retail is slowing, although in the year to May, it was up +10% year-on-year and broadly in line with what we have seen recently. But that is down from the +14% rate usual in 2017. Domestic online retail sales growth is +11%; international online sales growth is now +8% pa. Buying clothing from offshore sites is now lagging. Data according to BNZ/Marketview survey.
RISING TIDE RECOGNISED
Stats NZ has revised its calculation of household assets in the period 2008 to 2016, but resetting the value of residential houses over the period with updated data. That has added $184 bln to household assets taking them to $1.3 tln.
WEALTH EFFECT EVAPORATES IN OZ
In Australia, household net worth fell in the March quarter, the first fall in two years. The value of land & buildings fell by -AU$33.4 bln nationally (down -0.5%), and the value of financial assets fell by -AU$42.9 blb (-0.8%). In the past such reductions have been rare and fleeting, except during the GFC of course.
NERVES ON DISPLAY
Wall Street closed down almost -1% today, weakening faster at the close. Markets in our time zone are also weaker, except the ASX and NZX which are both showing small gains. Although Hong Kong is slipping slightly, larger losses are being posted in both Tokyo and Shanghai.
BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES DOWN SHARPLY
Local swap rates are sharply lower again today. The two year is down -2 bps, the five year is down -4 bps, and the 10 year is down -5 bps. The UST 10yr is now at 2.84%, down -4 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.63, down -1 bp, the China Govt 10yr is at 3.58% (down -3 bps), and the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.88%, down -4 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps and now at 2.00%.
BITCOIN DOWN
The bitcoin price is now at US$6,101 which +1% higher than at this time yesterday.
NZD LOWER
The NZD is still falling and now at 67.8 USc. On the cross rate we are lower too at 92.2 AUc and 58.6 euro cents. That has dragged the TWI-5 down to 71.3.
This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
13 Comments
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/91515/year-ahead-year-big-changes-calam…
six months in - how are we all going?
Mine
1. The drought will hit hard, depressing the regions
2. The actual tax take won’t come anywhere near Labour’s forecasts. Rather than trim their spending, they will borrow.
3. NZ First will find its billion dollar pork barrel fund isn’t enough, yet Robertson will be eyeing it up to cut the deficit.
4. The PM will announce her pregnancy. Peters will salivate at being interim PM, but then realise he has to front the media. NZ First support will go to 4%, making him resort to captains calls while in the power seat.
5. The affordable houses won’t eventuate. Twyford will blame the greedy boomers for not dying as quickly as projected and will propose a Rose and Lawn tax. Faux plant gardens will flourish. Palmers and Kings plant barn will close down in Auckland.
6. Wellington will have a major earthquake and the All Blacks will lose to England. Labour will get the blame.
7. We will find out what really happened in that car park before the 2014 election ;)
8. Trump will give NK a surprise tickle up.
9. Interest rates will stay down and house prices will remain firm, especially in 1071
10. The end of year report on government performance will say “could do better”.
Ah, but they have a solution for Meths.....and Prison Populations......at least they are having a shot at it...
A real eye opener....Kiddies please take note.....Xi will lead with lead.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12079…
Maybe this is why we have a growth market here...avoiding the obvious....is not surprising.
I had to laugh at Phil Twyford ( wearing his bus-driver hat not the Bob-the- builder-hat ) saying wealthier families would pay more for fuel and be worse off , as a result of the new fuel tax......... than poorer families.
He was citing a "Ministry of Transport " document , and apparently this is Gospel ....as true and Paul's epistle to the Phillipians, if you like .
This man must think we are all a bunch of embeciles .
Has Twyford not heard of the term " Proportion of Income " or its ugly bedfellow "Price Elasticity of Demand" widely used by Economists?
If not , he should have
Is he honestly suggesting that the cost of the fuel tax is going to impact my household with an income circa 5 times the median wage per annum and 2 highly efficient German diesel cars, ( 900-1200 kms on a tank ) the same as the South Auckland road worker, working the night shift ( he cant use a bus at 3 am ) with just one household median wage , 4 kids to feed , with a 1980-something Holden V8 already costing $150 every three days to fill up ?
And whatsmore , one of those diesel vehicles is run and paid for by my practice , so the cost to me is almost zero other than some FBT , and thats a luxury that many of Mr Twyfords "lower decile families" ( his words not mine ) , dont have
Twyford is , for a man on the left side of politics who should be punting to help the poor , either delusional or he is just a liar.
Donald Trumps sabre rattling as a pre-curser to a Trade War has had some unintended consequences .
This week, reports emerged that the US treasury is set to impose limits on Chinese technology investments — sending US stocks into their steepest slide since early April.
Global risk appetite also plunged, forcing investors out of riskier assets into the safety of US government debt. This has strengthened the US dollar and hurt emerging-market currencies.
The result :- A stronger US $ , ............. now that is not something Trump needs right now if he wants to help American exporters ( or protect American producers from low -cost imports )
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.