Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank reduced most of its fixed rates. Kiwibank reduced one key rate (ditto AMP Home Loans). China Construction Bank advised us of changes too, all down.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ hiked their eight month rate to 3.45%, a +25 bps rise. We have current reviewed the state of the term deposit market here.
MOMENTUM
The TPP (or more formally, the CPTPP) has yet to be ratified by all its eleven signatories, but Mexico and Japan have done that, and New Zealand Canada and Australia are all in the process of doing it. The deal comes into effect after six of the 11 members ratify, and that is expected by the end of 2018. This momentum is growing as Thailand, Indonesia and even the UK have expressed interest in joining. A TPP meeting mid-month in Japan will address the next expansion. Further, the RCEP, a bigger group including China, India and the ASEAN nations (and also including New Zealand and Australia) are going to try and get that multilateral agreement out of the starting block by the end of 2018, although that may me a bit ambitious. The TPP has high quality labour and IP elements that most of the signatories don't want to compromise on; the RCEP is much more loose on quality standards.
TUMULT AHEAD
Indians feel free. They feel confident. Their economy is booming. Yet, only 3% of India's population is "thriving." Life satisfaction is evaporating in the subcontinent, and the pollster who discovered the trend notes that it is the same trend identified in Egypt before the Arab Uprising, and in England before Brexit. India could be in for a tumultuous time.
NINE MONTH SLIPPAGE
Australian housing prices have slipped for many Australian capital cities in the past quarter, as tighter lending conditions and falling investment levels continue to affect the market. Home prices fell -0.2% in June on a national basis, which marks the ninth consecutive month-on-month drop, according to the latest report from CoreLogic. National property prices peaked in September last year and have since fallen -1.3 per cent to a median of $556,384.
PARTISAN PALE-STALE-MALE NEWS AS UNTRUSTED AS SOCIAL MEDIA
And staying in Australia, and in a black eye for their version of Fox News (News Corp), a recent poll there shows most people regard the ABC as their most trusted source of news, with social media the least trusted, and News Corp sources as net negative too (that is, it has a negative Net Trust Score). News Corp has been running a long-run attack on the ABC, which seems have backfired due to their perceived partisan bias.
BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES STABLE
Local swap rates were slightly firmer today for terms of three years and longer, all up +1 bp. But no changes to the key one and two year terms. In advance of the opening on Wall Street, the UST 10yr is now at 2.86%, up +1 bp. Don't forget it will be a stunted trading week there with their national July 4 holiday on Thursday (Wednesday their time). The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.62, down -3 bps, the China Govt 10yr is at 3.51% (down -3 bps), and the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.88%, down -1 bp. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp to 1.99%. That's near an 11 week low.
BITCOIN RECOVERS
The bitcoin price is now at US$6,330 after getting down as low as US$5,851 over the weekend, so we are now +8.1% higher than that recent low.
NZD HOLDING ON
The NZD is virtually changed today and still at 67.7 USc. On the cross rate we are lower at 91.6 AUc and 58.1 euro cents. That has the TWI-5 at 71.1.
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3 Comments
What's going on in the command economy - the Shanghai down 2.5% - somewhat significant given the already dramatic decline.
May well be wrong - but from memory this isn't an easy market for large sellers to get out of quickly,
Again - odd that the authorities aren't putting some artificial floor under this.
@custard, you are quite correct , there is negative sentiment in the Chinese markets right now, and unlike other markets, China has a lot of individual punters, and relatively fewer big players like the Mutual Funds and Pensions and retirement fund managers that we see in the West .
So a "large seller " cannot often get out easily or quickly in the absence of a "large buyer" coupled to this is negative sentiment AND I would suggest that a lot of punters are using debt to speculate, which means they would want a quick exit if losses mount ........... and this is problematic .
Like I have said for years, China is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma , covered with a layer of secrecy, run by cheats ( who dont regard themselves as cheats) and protected by a pack of lies , and is all recorded in symbols you and I cant make head or tail of .
China is a real threat to global markets blowing up and Trump is the bloke spraying gasoline all over the place - it just takes a spark to send markets reeling .
Boatman you suggest
'China is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma , covered with a layer of secrecy, run by cheats'
What would be your take on that quote and its influence/con-sequence and impact on the relatively leveraged, prospectively influenced, Chinese gambling within the Auckland property market of late?
(addendum 10.59pm 02/07/2018)) - I should add for fairness, a don't disagree with your original quote.
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