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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; UDC rate change, real estate agent commission update, improvements to Key Bank Metrics tool, swaps up, NZD firms

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; UDC rate change, real estate agent commission update, improvements to Key Bank Metrics tool, swaps up, NZD firms

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
We had missed a rate cut across the board from UDC earlier last week. It involves small reductions for terms 4 moths through 5 years, involving either a -5 or -10 bps cut.

UPDATE
We have updated our Key Bank Metrics tool to add an explainer to each of the categories. These are the official RBNZ definitions, the ones used in their Dashboard tool. We will be converting some of the more technical ones to plainer language over the next few weeks. These improvements come after our addition of tax, leverage and management details.

RBNZ APPROVES INSURANCE DEAL
Provident Insurance CEO Steve Owens says the Reserve Bank has advised that it approves the transfer from Co-op Money of the non-life insurance business from Co-op Insurance, the trading name of Credit Union Insurance Ltd, to Provident. Owens says details of the deal and its price are commercially sensitive. Approval of the sale will be welcomed by Co-op Money, the industry association for the sector, and its members.

SEVEN PERCENT MORE
The real estate industry is estimated to have earned just over $400 mln in residential sales commissions in the second quarter of this year as sales volumes bounced off their lows.

WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX and ASX are both sharply lower today, each down about -0.8%. That is in contracts with Hong Kong and Shanghai which are both pretty much unchanged. Tokyo however down a whopping -1.2%.

AGEING UPDATE
All countries are aging. But in some the trend will be faster than others. And China is in that fast group. Currently China's over 60s account for just 17% of a 1.4 bln population. That's 240 mln older folks. In one generation (30 years) that number will grow to almost 500 mln people over 60, a doubling, while its population will only grow in those 30 years by +70 mln (not a typo). For comparison, New Zealand's over 60s now account for 21% of our population. In the US they account for 22%. In neither of these two countries will the over 60s grow as fast proportionately. China may also have special twist to deal with given the preference for boys.

COAL LOSES AN ADVANTAGE
In 'Stralia there is a reservoir of affection for coal as the backbone of their electricity generation and for industrial use. Thermal coal still ticks the boxes of policy makers for 'base load'. But the businessman who bought the bankrupt Whyalla steelworks has told then that coal is no longer the low cost alternative, that renewables are now the preferred low cost option and the advantage is likely to grow as quickly as it came upon his commercial decision. If true, that will be an earthquake in Australian policy making around energy.

SWAP RATES TURN UP
Local swap rates are rising today. The two year is up +1 bps, the five year up +2 bps, and the ten year is up +3 bps. However, the UST 10yr is down to 2.89%, a -1 bps slip but essentially holding Wall Street's Friday climb. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.67, up +4 bps, the China Govt 10yr is at 3.51% also up +4 bps, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.89%, up +6 bps and recovering all it lost on Friday. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.92%.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$7,623 and iup strongly from this morning even though seven hours ago there was a sharp bump down in these markets.

NZD FIRMER
The NZD is up to 68.2 USc. And it is holding on the cross rates at 91.8 AUc, and ate euro at 58.2 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 slightly lower at 71.4.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.

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9 Comments

Those demographics on China are pretty scary if they are even close to being accurate. It would suggest that they don't have too long to make use of the army of young men that the one child policy has brought about, all currently under the age of 39 but within 10 years they will have pretty much two generations worth of cannon fodder. Or, 30-40 years from now they have a massive oversupply of grumpy geriatrics fighting each other in the nursing homes.

'The one-child policy, a part of the family planning policy, was a population planning policy of China. It was introduced in 1979 and began to be formally phased out near the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016. The policy allowed exceptions for many groups, including ethnic minorities.'

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To me, it is the scale of China that is the scary thing of which the features of demographics such as the aged is only one aspect.
In New Zealand we can consider a pretty consistent standard of education and the ability to implement things such as curriculum change and IT.
On latest counts; China has over 550,000 schools and well over 15 million teachers.
Try and ensure a consistent quality and innovation among both that number of schools and teachers. How would one go about trying to negotiate a national collective employment contract as expected in New Zealand.
Try implementing and ensuring a nationally consistent high quality building code which we struggle to do in New Zealand!
It is not only the scale, but throw the mix of languages into the melting pot as well to provide a challenge.
I guess that bane of New Zealand - inclusive consultation - would be one thing that isn't going to wash in either education or any other industrial sector.

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Construction activity slowdown was inevitable with the rapidly reducing uptake of apartments in Australian capital cities, unless they want Chinese-style ghost cities sprouting up around the country.

Remember, at one point in 2016 there were more construction cranes operating along the east coast of Australia than in all of North America.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-23/construction-set-for-biggest-fall…

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Australia’s version of the sub-prime crisis that ushered in the global financial crisis could be looming, with a significant number of the 1.5 million households with interest-only loans likely to struggle with higher repayments, experts warn.

Martin North, the principal at consultancy Digital Finance Analytics, said interest-only loans account for about $700 billion of the $1.7 trillion in Australian mortgage lending and it was “our version of the GFC”.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-22/its-our-version-gfc-aussies-f…

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Thanks Andrewj, as always.

So, Average Aussie mortgage is now AU$400,000. (Similar to NZ $ average amount here)
Assuming 30 year term at 4.75%
Interest only = $1583 per month but will revert to capital and interest over next three years raising payment to $2086 per month. That's going to put a squeeze on household spending. Dominoes comes to mind

I see they are now letting Martin North onto the telly in Australia now.

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One for Wellington property owners. Are your median prices set to continue rising. As most tend to agree that Auckland house prices tend to lead New Zealand regions,Wellington medians are now some 30 percent lower than their Auckland cousins,rapidly closing the extraordinary 45 percent gap that peaked two years ago as credit flowed.For most of the early part of the century and the latter part of the last millennia the medians fluctuated around a 20 point difference before dropping gradually to the low teens as credit tightened. Or could Auckland prices fall?

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Below is a lesson from the property world about leverage and making acquisitions with debt when the market was already high or at the wrong time in the debt cycle. Countrywide is the largest estate agency in the UK who were successful and out buying other companies in 2014 - 2016 (with a bit of debt) - Share price has been hammered - it's worth a read.

UK average property price £227,000 in May 2018.. or around $450,000 NZ dollars.... that's including several million London homes. Enjoy the read

www.propertyindustryeye.com/battling-countrywide-could-make-100m-cash-c…

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Am I alone in thinking real estate agents add no value, and are grossly overpaid?

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Probably not alone in that thinking, however, when the shit hits the fan (and its on the horizon) you'll want a proper agent rather than a part time Nana/Agent from the bowls club.

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