Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Again, no changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.
FEWER INCOMING WORKERS
Permanent immigration growth is continuing to decline but remained above 60,000 in the year to October. 6,668 net new migrants arrived in October, which interestingly is the same number as the average over the previous five years. Of the 6,668 in October, 1070 came from the UK, 655 from China, 532 from South Africa, 473 from France, 454 from Germany. Net migrant arrivals from India, the USA, the Philippines, etc were lesser again.The biggest turn is from Australia, a -304 change; in October 2017 256 arrived but in 2018 -48 more left for the West Island than arrived. Traditionally, we leak citizens to Australia when opportunity here is perceived to be inferior to that in Australia. Infometrics says one consequence is that employers will find it "even harder to obtain new labour".
SMALL MARKET GAINS DRIVE TOURISM
Broad growth from smaller tourism markets is helping push up tourist arrival numbers even when growth from Australia and China is slowing. And Kiwis travelling overseas remains strongly 'positive'. This is because our population is still increasing, the economy is running smoothly, and international travel prices have been at their lowest levels since 2009.
EQUITY MARKETS QUIET
The S&P500 was virtually unchanged today. Shanghai is down -0.3% in early trading. The ASX 200 is up +0.6%, while the NZX50 is up +0.4%.
PRICE TURN?
After a tough dairy auction on Wednesday, the dairy derivative market has turned up noticeably. Today's prices suggest WMP could be up +3.8%, while SMP could be up as much as +7.0%.
LAPPED UP
The Christchurch City Holdings bond offer has closed fully subscribed, including the provision for $50 mln oversubscriptions. That means $150 mln will be allocated. The interest rate has been set at 3.58% pa. This reflects a margin of 0.90% pa over the underlying swap rate. This issue comes with an S&P rating of A+.
30 MLN IN A DECADE
Based on current trends, Australia's population is projected to reach 30 million people between 2029 and 2033, according to the latest figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. By 2066 these same projections suggest Australia might have a population as high as 60 mln (or as 'low' as 37 mln). (New Zealand is projecting a population of 6 mln max. by 2030, and will reach 5 mln next year - all in a country of a similar area to Japan and Britain.)
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are essentially unchanged today. The UST 10yr is still at 3.07%. The 2-10 curve has held at just under +25 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.67%, down -4 bps today, the China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp at 3.42%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.73% and that is down -2 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is back up to 2.00%.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$4,556 and that is a +US$271 or +6.3% gain in the past 24 hours.
NZD FIRMER
The NZD is higher today at 68.2 USc. On the cross rates we at 94 AUc and at 59.8 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 up at 72.47
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16 Comments
China's Golden Age is OVER! ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J35AxY1pLE&feature=youtu.be
Is Fletchers our RCR Tomlinson?
"The collapse of the company, which employs more than 3,400 people and was founded by the Tomlinson brothers in 1898, comes just three months after it raised $100 million in equity from shareholders to pay for write-downs .....and strengthen its balance sheet....the collapse of RCR, which had almost $2 billion in revenues in 2017-18, was "staggering.. It is impossible to envisage a situation where this outcome is not the result of gross negligence, incompetence.... on the part of the board, management and/or its bankers...
This after having raised $100 million from shareholders only three months ago and representations that the business was in good shape but for one .... contract."
https://www.afr.com/business/rcr-tomlinson-files-for-administration-aft…
Hi all. sorry for the delay in providing this, had a busy week so far.
National unsold housing stock has risen to 38,565 from 38,208 on 16th November (realestate.co.nz) - a further 0.9% rise.
Auckland Unsold housing stock has risen to 14,392 from 14,321 on 16th November (realestate.co.nz) - a rise of 1% in 6 days.
Auckland Rentals have risen from 4517 on 16th (trademe) to stand at 4627 today- a rise of 2.4% in 6 days
Aussie banks and media throw the mortgage brokers under the bus. Appalling stuff.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/mortgage-brokers-earning-millions-20…
Thanks Nic.. Stats are so helpful, ...but I get the picture.
I would like to put in an offer for the Lot.
Will give you feedback, when discussed which Bank will "Dream Up The Money" Fed Reserve or maybe ours...or Maybe Aussie Foursome....depends on the rate of decline...or moving average, or a Fraction or two of what we is missing.
China African Swine Fever Scattered Far and Wide
China has had 57 confirmed cases of African Swine Fever (ASF) in 100 days. New cases are being confirmed at a rate of nearly 1 per day, and they are widely scattered across the country with no discernible pattern
https://dimsums.blogspot.com/2018/11/china-african-swine-fever-scattere…
What we're seeing so far is just the tip of the iceberg," Juan Lubroth, the chief veterinary officer at UN's Food and Agriculture Organization, said in September. The latest announcement may presage an epidemic that has a 100% fatality for infected pigs. Already there are reports of spreading to the EU. This latest announcement in China has the potential for threatening the entire Chinese population of half a billion pigs -- almost half the world's supply.
The implications are immense for world meat supplies. In the U.S. where no strains of the virus have been found, lean hog futures jumped the permissible limit on Friday. U.S. pork might benefit from sharply improved demand and summer 2019 lean hog futures were in the mid 80s while current prices are in the low 60s.
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - A Chinese livestock company squeezed for cash has proposed to bondholders a plan to pay them some of the interest owed with ham and gift boxes of meat, according to an exchange filing, sending its stock soaring.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-debt-ham/investors-chew-over-c…
all they need is a virus in the chicken population and they will be starving like the famine of 1958-62
https://globalriskinsights.com/2018/11/pandemic-health-pathogen/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-21/china-s-debt-pain…
Small beer. ........Pop.
5 million NZ population by 2030? Well the NZ Initiative will be happy. They were longtime espousers of the need to get the NZ population up to 5 mill so the country couod posess what was in their eyes a descent internal economy. However the means by which that has been arrived at, and the collateral damage to NZ society is not acceptable to this reader.
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