A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; no rate changes, fewer incoming workers, tourism still thriving, swap rates unchanged, NZD firmer, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Again, no changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

FEWER INCOMING WORKERS
Permanent immigration growth is continuing to decline but remained above 60,000 in the year to October. 6,668 net new migrants arrived in October, which interestingly is the same number as the average over the previous five years. Of the 6,668 in October, 1070 came from the UK, 655 from China, 532 from South Africa, 473 from France, 454 from Germany. Net migrant arrivals from India, the USA, the Philippines, etc were lesser again.The biggest turn is from Australia, a -304 change; in October 2017 256 arrived but in 2018 -48 more left for the West Island than arrived. Traditionally, we leak citizens to Australia when opportunity here is perceived to be inferior to that in Australia. Infometrics says one consequence is that employers will find it "even harder to obtain new labour".

SMALL MARKET GAINS DRIVE TOURISM
Broad growth from smaller tourism markets is helping push up tourist arrival numbers even when growth from Australia and China is slowing. And Kiwis travelling overseas remains strongly 'positive'. This is because our population is still increasing, the economy is running smoothly, and international travel prices have been at their lowest levels since 2009.

EQUITY MARKETS QUIET
The S&P500 was virtually unchanged today. Shanghai is down -0.3% in early trading. The ASX 200 is up +0.6%, while the NZX50 is up +0.4%.

PRICE TURN?
After a tough dairy auction on Wednesday, the dairy derivative market has turned up noticeably. Today's prices suggest WMP could be up +3.8%, while SMP could be up as much as +7.0%.

LAPPED UP
The Christchurch City Holdings bond offer has closed fully subscribed, including the provision for $50 mln oversubscriptions. That means $150 mln will be allocated. The interest rate has been set at 3.58% pa. This reflects a margin of 0.90% pa over the underlying swap rate. This issue comes with an S&P rating of A+.

30 MLN IN A DECADE
Based on current trends, Australia's population is projected to reach 30 million people between 2029 and 2033, according to the latest figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. By 2066 these same projections suggest Australia might have a population as high as 60 mln (or as 'low' as 37 mln). (New Zealand is projecting a population of 6 mln max. by 2030, and will reach 5 mln next year - all in a country of a similar area to Japan and Britain.)

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are essentially unchanged today. The UST 10yr is still at 3.07%. The 2-10 curve has held at just under +25 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.67%, down -4 bps today, the China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp at 3.42%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.73% and that is down -2 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is back up to 2.00%.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$4,556 and that is a +US$271 or +6.3% gain in the past 24 hours.

NZD FIRMER
The NZD is higher today at 68.2 USc. On the cross rates we at 94 AUc and at 59.8 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 up at 72.47

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