A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; important rate cuts, QV slowing, dairy prices up, peak car, Barfoot volumes dive, commodity prices up, swap rates up, NZD slips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Both SBS Bank and The Co-operative Bank cut fixed rate offers today. More details here.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank trimmed rate offers for terms of 18 months and longer.

QV DIMINISHING
Latest QV figures show housing values are falling in Auckland while the rate of growth is slowing in the rest of the country.

CURRENCY BOOST
Today's dairy auction brought marginally higher prices than the one two weeks ago, but the results were boosted by a lower NZD. Overall prices are an impressive +22% higher than where we were at the start of 2019, but only +4.5% higher than the same time last year.

PEAK CAR HAS PASSED
New car sales are no longer growing. In fact, we have now had four consecutive months where the annual volumes are lower than the same period a year ago, even if the change is small. But the SUV share is growing and for the first time ever, more than twice as many SUVs were sold in March than traditional sedans/wagons. But even SUV sales levels seem to have peaked with March volumes -1% lower than for March 2018.

LOWEST MARCH SINCE 2010
Dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson's sales were down in March but prices held up reasonably well. Their managing director says it's a market 'requiring vendors to have realistic expectations'.

MOVING BACK UP
For the third month in a row, New Zealand's commodity prices have risen, somewhat defying expectations and clawing back earlier declines. Both dairy and meat are driving the upturn.

THE NEW TOP FIVE
Australia, the United States, Canada, China and Singapore were the most significant investors in New Zealand over the period 2013 to June 2018, accounting for 55% of investment, according to KPMG’s latest Foreign Direct Investment into New Zealand report. Canada? Who knew? The absence of the UK in that top five says a lot about our shift away from an old traditional (and tired) investor.

TOE STUB
Having talked up the NZX this morning and how it is outperforming other larger markets, today the NZX50 is down about -0.8% and much more than other markets who all seem to be gaining.

A BIG TRADE WINNER
Against expectations, Australia has posted another excellent trade performance in February, with a surplus of +AU$4.8 bln. That is on top of a similar surplus in February. This data is for goods and services and is a record high. It caps a 28 month period where they have only had two which were in deficit. In the previous 28 month period, they didn't have any surpluses. The last twelve months posted a +AU$30 bln surplus compared with an +AU$8 bln in the preceding year.

NOT BEARISH
Also surprising (and impressing) are the Aussie retail sales data for February which came in mich better than expected. And remember January was better than expected as well but dismissed as an aberration. That conclusion will need to be updated. Total retail sales are up +3.2% year-on-year in February driven by much better gains for both the clothing and food sectors. (But Gerry Harvey is probably not smiling because his sector is flat-lining.) It is a positive result that wasn't expected. The RBA is right to be cautious about listening to the bears.

THE KIWI PROPORTION
Of the 25 million people living in Australia, 29% of them were born overseas. 4% were born in the UK, 2.6% were born in China, 2.4% in India and 2.3% were born in New Zealand. That's 568,000 people according to data released by the ABS today.

LOCAL SWAP RATES RISE
Local swap rates have risen about +3 bps across the board, except for the 1 year term. The UST 10yr rate is marginally higher at 2.50%, a rise of +2 bps since this time yesterday. Their 2-10 curve is out to +18 bps while their 1-5 curve has narrowed somewhat, down to negative -9 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 1.84% (unchanged today), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.19% and up +3 bps, while the New Zealand Govt 10yr is at 1.92% and up +5 bps so far today. The 90 day bank bill rate fell sharply today to 1.81%, an unusual -4 bps movement

NZ DOLLAR SLIPS AGAIN
The NZ dollar has been softer, then firmer and is back to about where it was this time yesterday at 67.7 USc. Yesterday's QSBO-inspired trimming has held. Against the Aussie we are softer at 95.4 AUc, and also softer at 60.3 euro cents. The TWI-5 is lower at 72.3.

BITCOIN LEAPS
Bitcoin is still zooming higher and now at US$4,940 and a eye-popping +19% gain from this time yesterday. Haven't been able to find a fact-based reason for the sudden move however. If you know, please add it in the Comment section below.

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