A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; no rate changes, record high exports, consumer confidence up, charges for deceptive claims, swaps firm, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

EXPORT SURPRISE
Exports hit a new high in March, driven by higher exports of dairy, meat, and forestry products, coming in at NZ$5.7 bln for the month, almost +20% higher than in the same month last year. This was a new record for any month – the previous high for monthly exports was in December 2017. That strong result mean't that the March trade balance hit +NZ$922 mln, the second highest ever. Analysts had expected a March merchandise trade surplus of just +$131 mln, so the actual result was a positive surprise. These results helped pare back the previous trend of a worsening trade performance. In the year to March, the annual merchandise trade deficit is running at -NZ$5.6 bln.

POLITICAL MISSTEP
New Zealand First put out a press release today claiming the new Government has been responsible for a sizable runup in exports. In the 17 months since the coalition government was formed, exports have risen +16% compared to the same 17 months previously. But leaving aside that it takes years of effort and preparation to move the export results higher (something they had zero to do with), they overlooked mentioning that in the same time our trade deficit has risen from -$6.6 bln under Nationals last 17 months to just under $7 bln in the 17 months of the new coalition government. Shallow claims don't reflect well on government parties; they just breed cynicism.

'GOOD TIME TO BUY'
Consumer confidence also improved, although only marginally. The ANZ-Roy Morgan monthly survey rose +1 point in April and to sit near average levels. Their 'perceptions of current conditions' index rose +5 points, while the 'future conditions' index fell -1 point. The proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item rose a solid and somewhat surprising +8 points.

DECEPTIVE?
New Zealand smallgoods producer Farmland Foods is facing charges under the Fair Trading Act for allegedly misleading consumers about the place of origin of some of its ham products. The charges follow a Commerce Commission investigation and relate to the labeling on packaging of three sizes of its ‘Heritage Cooked on the Bone’ ham products. The Commission alleges the packaging gave consumers the false or misleading impression that the products were made from New Zealand reared pork, when the majority of the pork was imported. The ham products were sold between 1 October 2015 and 1 September 2018.

EQUITY MARKETS UPDATE
As we reported earlier, Shanghai equity markets fell sharply yesterday, down an eye-catching -2.4%. Today this market has opened down further, currently another -0.5% in early trade. Hong Kong has opened up +0.3% while Tokyo is down -0.7% in early trade. Across the Tasman in light trade, the ASX200 is down -0.1% while the NZX50 is down -0.4% so far.

MIXED, BUT MOSTLY POSITIVE
There has been some minor data out of Japan this afternoon, mixed, but quite interesting. Industrial production levels for March were lower than expected, but retail sales actually rose more than expected - in fact there was a gain of +0.6% for large retailers when a -1% decline was anticipated. Supporting this is data on the Tokyo CPI which was up much more than expected at +1.4% pa.

LOCAL SWAP RATES RISE
Local swap rates have risen by about +2 bps across the whole curve today. The UST 10yr rate has dipped another -1 bp from this morning to 2.53%. Their 2-10 curve is little-changed at +21 bps and their negative 1-5 curve now wider at -10 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down again today to 1.79% (down -1 bp from Wednesday), the China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp at 3.43%, while the New Zealand Govt 10yr is now at 1.93% and down -1 bp. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.78%.

NZ DOLLAR FIRMS
The NZ dollar is marginally firmer from this this morning at 66.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are also firmer at 94.5 AUc. We are also firm at 59.6 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 71.5.

BITCOIN STUMBLES
Bitcoin has taken a bit of a tumble today, down another -5% on top of the -1.6% we reported this morning, and is now at US$5,198. Bitcoin is tracked in the chart below.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.