BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander says Auckland's rising house price cycle is over, sees a risk of property oversupply in some regions

BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander thinks the Auckland housing market has reached the end of of its upward price cycle and is advising real estate agents to look for new jobs.

"That is that as far as this cycle goes for Auckland," Alexander said in his latest BNZ Weekly Overview newsletter.

It might be another four to six years before we see the next cycle of rapid price gains, "just not for a while," he said.

And Alexander is also suggesting many real estate agents should consider a change of careers, possibly looking for work on building sites or in classrooms.

"Which means, as we have pointed out for some time now, many real estate agents need to find alternative work," he said.

"Try construction where demand for labour is very high. Same for teaching."

Alexander's comments come after Auckland's biggest real estate agent Barfoot & Thompson this week said it sold 658 residential properties in September, down 393, or 37%, from 1051 in September last year, and the lowest volume of properties it has sold in the month of September since 2008.

Alexander also warned that a recent upturn of residential building activity outside Auckland could lead to an oversupply in some regions.

"In the regions there has been a very quick supply response to prices rising in part-catch-up response to Auckland," he said.

"This brings the risk of regional oversupplies, especially in areas of projected population decline or minimal population growth."

Here's Alexander's full Weekly Overview.

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140 Comments

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2008 all over again but with 40% more debt and massive unaffordability and the real risk of the overseas investors that started this mess exiting the market in mass when there investment widdles away. Scary. I don’t feel sorry for them tho because they only brought it on themselves

Q4 you are being a little generous with the debt percentages.

Sorry 40% more debt than the highs of 2007

Perhaps The Economist can provide help
http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock?page=8
Click on 2007 & 2008 for comparison debt levels etc
US Sharemarket at historic highs Confidence high What does that tell you ?
Certainly not to invest at historic market peak that’s for sure
No we are just waiting for a catalyst now
Maybe a war maybe something else and then watch out

Wow. A must read and an invaluable link.

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I do feel extremely sorry for the first home buyers who have struggled for a deposit and bought in at these ridiculous prices.
If we had an honest open and freely competitive market there would be no more booms in the future.
Let's hope that the next government sorts out the many contrived problems that have lead to the mess that we now face. I hope that the banks get their fingers badly burnt in any future correction because earlier in the piece they were going out of their way to stoke the fire. (perhaps the Aussie bank owners might lose their equity.)

I doubt it Chris, but if they do, watch how credit evaporates for home buyers and businesses for any years - I wouldn’t wish for it if I was you.

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Love the clickbait title. The agents will just find some other industry to ruin. Leeches.

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What are ex real estate agents that couldn't hold onto their jobs in a tightening market going to teach today's children??

i imagine just tests based on "rich dad poor dad" as the new curriculum

But if they have any sense they will substitute the dad without huge debt funded property holdings as the rich dad!

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You need a degree to be a teacher. That would exclude the majority of REA`s.

Wow! you guys are really hating on agents, you don't have to use them or you can always try to negotiate your commission.
I was very happy with an agent I hired last year.
I have sold privately and had repercussions. Having the agent negotiate separates the two parties who are emotionally involved and lowers the stress big time.

I have also considered purchasing from a private sale and the vendors expect you to sort out the contract so your spending your money on a solicitor before you even have a contract in place.
If the vendor is too tight to use an agent I insist their solicitor draws the contract up.
That way if the contract gets gazumped or falls over it is the vendor who is out of pocket.

If an agent misrepresents the property you can send them for a large fine skate.
If the vendor misrepresents the property at a private sale you are buggered.

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This doesn't bode well since Tony Alexander is perpetually wrong.

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Tony Alexander is a troll par excellence. All his advise is missing, is his suggestion that RE Agents should cut back on their smashed avocado consumption to help them budget better.

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He really is a master of click bait

Particularly as he has listed twice.

Hey Ranga,

TA is our pet resident NZ raised property soothsayer - I like his commentary - so layoff you import

Nearly all RE agents are landlords.

RE being landlords is that a good thing or bad in a downturn?.

If many are forced to sell it will be a good thing for future FHB's.

The maths behind owning rental property is that the losses are tax deductible on your legitimately earned day job income. If your legitimately earned day job income goes very low,: not so good!

..for now maybe. In future...maybe not...Will be interesting to see if the new Labour Govt sticks with this pledge in a falling market..

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1705/S00500/labour-to-ring-fence-proper...

REAs should be required to disclose their interests at the very outset of the marketing process not at the time of providing information after they have "hooked" potential purchasers or in the final stages of the Sale and Purchase Agreement. This would provide transparency in terms of REAs inflating the market for their or their family and friend's benefit.

REA's are working for the vendor who hired them.
It is their job to get the best price they can.

Don't be so naive! They represent both parties!
Their sole purpose in life is to get the sole listing!!
To drive the vendors bottom line down to get a sale
no matter what the price!!!

I'd tell Tony Alexander to get a new job cleaning meth contaminated houses but I don't think he'd be any good at it.

Most Rea's are good at talking the talk, but wouldn't last 1 week in the construction industry.
Door to door sales person perhaps..

The battered Ford Ranger driving builder might accidentally bump into the new Audi of his apprentice.

REA's tend to be mums re-entering the workforce or blokes to old and damaged to do their trade or losers who have failed at everything else.
I try to hire the bloke too damaged to do his trade.

One way to improve NZ is to ask if a prospective agent has investment properties. If so, choose another agent or agency. If the agent declines to answer, choose another agent anyway.

More to the point did they rip someone off getting there rentals

You anti 'real estate agents' people have some strange ideas.
If I'm buying a rental I want an agent who has rentals. Why would you hire a clown who doesn't know the subject?

Alexander's comments may be a hint that the real movers and shakers behind our economy are starting to move against specuvestor minnows. I will watch events with interest as the sharks attack.

Has TA considered a different profession???

gigolo

Only if he offers a heavy discount and scrubs the bathroom afterwards.

The names Bigelow... Douche Bigelow

I will pay him to smear me in smashed avocados, as long as he wears a french maids outfit.

I'll pay him not to.

Uber driver
If I am not wrong TA has an apartment in the Gold Coast (as previously mentioned in his newsletter). He could become a professional budgie smuggler at GC's Main Beach!

This is actually a good idea. Put their Audis and BMWs to good use. This will boost Uber's presence in NZ.

Probably most of them are used import from Japan or Singapore with "fixed up" mileage!

Village idiot?

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That'd be a sideways move.

Here's Barfoot Thompson's list of Top Sales Agents for 2015 - can't find 2016
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/news/2015/may/top-salespeople-2015

Found 2016 here
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/news/2016/may/award-winning-real-estate-agents

Looks like May didn't happen this year at B&T

There is something different between the two years, I just can't put my finger on it.

"Cutting, calcitrant and concise" - Paddy Gower probably

Have a family friend whos a barfoot agent. Havent sold one property since June.

Why do so many on here hate Real Estate Agents.
Most people use them to buy or sell property so they must be necessary.
Now when the market quietens you think it is funny that they aren't going to be making as much as before, so flippen hilarious.
Instead of showing your envy for people who try to get ahead, you would be far better off trying to improve your own lot rather than worrying about others.

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Because they are generally unqualified people who cannot do anything else or they failed in what they qualified in. People hand them a key, they talk sh-t about the property and often tell fibs or fail to disclose then hand the key back after the fibs work. For that they charge more than a surgeon who is trying to save ones life. Go figure.

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The truth be told, it is worse than that. Even when REAs are informed that their marketing material is deficient and plainly false they turn a blind eye and claim insufficient knowledge and expertise, this is against the law. However the REAA does nothing except slap their hands with a wet bus ticket.

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It has nothing to do with envy.

People hate real estate agents the world over, in good financial times and bad. The main reason repeated in my experience is because they lie, manipulate and pressurise. A house is the biggest purchase you will ever make, so having some shifty twat in a cheap suit and too much after shave, trying to manipulate your views during this process is definitely a causal factor in the dislike, rather than envy.
When I come to buy a house in NZ, I would be genuinely delighted to see more private sales and cut out the RE agent.
What would be amazing is if they ban RE agents from using subjective language at all. And ban them from speaking unless they are spoken too. Imagine the delight of a RE agent that just quietly shows you around and objectively answers any questions when asked but otherwise shuts the fuck up?

Ha i like it, RE agents on salaries from the government would do the trick.

Agree. They base their tactics on universal human reactions to pressure. Grind the seller down and get the buyer scared that they will miss out.

I believe roughly half the commission goes to the agency and half to the agent, plus various payments e.g to reward the listing agent. Agents with a high profile must get increased percentages otherwise why change agencies.

What they do well is save us from ourselves. I don't want to have to filter out the bottom feeders, serial nosey bodies who just go to open homes for something to do, listen to critiques of my belongings and décor or negotiate with tight ar$es. It does seem a very expensive service though when they have nothing at risk but time spent.

Try the Chrome extension Shitemove

https://shitemove.angryflatcap.com/

It replaces those phrases with less flattering ones. Built for the UK but you can add your favourite NZRE sites.

The same reason we hate landlords. Because by and large they are bottom feeding parasites.

DICK comment of the day

Who you want be believe ???

Nick Goodall, Senior Research Analyst, CoreLogic NZ
So where are things headed? My pick is that values will start to increase again in 2018. Probably early 2018 if we get a National led Government, due to fewer policies addressing the strong demand for property. But even with Jacinda Ardern as our next Prime Minister, it’s likely that prices will lift in 2018 (albeit later than if Bill English is in charge), due to strong underlying fundamentals (low interest rates, constrained construction) making up for any tightening in migration policy or other tweaks designed to reduce investor demand.

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Get the foreigners out and keep the foot on the throat of investors in the existing market and hopefully prices will settle to a level that locals can afford.

Colin... Moody's, IMF and Goldman Sachs have all recently warned that NZ housing market bubble could explode. Let's not pretend like it's Tony vs Nick Goodall.

And let's not forget that it has it's very own Wiki page;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_property_bubble

Logic suggests Moody's etc are right I am not supporting Goodall at all the market in my view the house market is crazy and very vulnerable. Goodall highlights the prevailing view that it can only go up perhaps he's right there may well be another short blow off. The very scary part is wide spread believe the market wont ever crash.

It looks like Nick Goodall completely ignored the restriction of Chinese capital, one of the biggest factors of house price increases. Sure you can have lots of pent up demand but it still has to be affordable to the local Kiwis. So unless Nick knows something everyone else doesn't (is Winston Peters gonna give everyone $500k?) then I don't see prices rising back to $1M in the foreseeable future.

Wouldn't pay much attention to them, just another party with a finger in the ponzi pie

That's funny, this is the second article in a similar vein from perm-ed one. Where is the mention of the overseas buyer in this Version II. Version I made specific mention in the very last line of them https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/96864107/tony-alexander-warns-real-esta...
And all things going to plan what has happened over the last few years will never, ever happen again, if common sense prevails and foreigners are kept out of the market.

I hear Xerox need some photocopier salespeople? I mean they're both careers of last resort.

I have met many who move between the 2 depending on circumstances - and ethical they ain't.....slime

we are very good at this, arent we. we pick housing. then we pick the players. first we bashed the chineese buyers because there were too many of them at auctions (inspite of them probably being 3rd or 4th generation Kiwis). then it was john key for his policies. then came the national party. a few more were bashed along the way. finally we could not stop bashing the rea's. i wonder what these bashers get into. its not housing/investments, just wondering is "it" anything worth while?

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i am not a nimby... yup, you've listed most of the causes of the housing crisis and ever increasing wealth inequality in NZ. Are you suggesting that politicians should not be blamed for the policies that exacerbated the housing crisis? Or denying that there is a housing crisis that we should examine for causal factors (like foreign buyers from richer countries)?
NB the issue of foreign buyers is not a phenomenon unique to NZ or indeed denied by most other countries where it is also a problem. In NZ there isn't even available or accurate data on the issue.
NB Real Estate agents are hated the world over, for the same reasons. This is discussed above. People don't tend to like being lied to and manipulated.

As for whether what I do is worthwhile. I am specialised in Child and Adolescent Mental Health and also support my husbands IT company, writing online content. He has just been nominated for Freelancer of the Year in the UK, so I assume people also think his work is worthwhile. Am I allowed to continue bashing politicians for failing to address the housing crisis now?

It's alright. A lot of Labour voters here and the tall poppy syndrome is really rampant. The problem is there are just too many poor people here in NZ with their hand out and don't want to get off their bottoms and do something about their situation. Personal responsibility is all but gone and it'll only get worse. eg. Like in the recent article talking about a Nelson mother who has 6 kids without a home. You are only getting a small taste of what's to come. The government is getting larger and larger with more people voting them to intervene more and more into our lives. The goal of socialism is communism, and Jacinda is going to lead us to becoming a state of China.

LOL

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So when you refer to people with their 'hand out' - are you referring to landlords who are supported by National? (i.e. subsidies to tenants that go right into the hands of landlords?)

And talking about China - hasn't National just been selling our country out to China? So what's worse - sell yourself off to a country, or become more like them?

You are deluded mate. Even the highest paid professionals are totally priced out. Lose the victim blaming mentality.

Better the "hand out" as a problem, at least you know what their issues are. It's the hands and fingers of more wealthy individuals that you can't see, that do the real damage, eroding the tax base, distorting markets and clipping numerous tickets. Invisible you don't know you're being bled.

Scary thought - Real Estate Agents turning up on building sites. Some might argue that in some situations it would help improve the quality (or lack of) of workmanship!

Wow, the hate is strong today

We're a country full of haters. I feel sorry for the RE agents.

Why? because they are your colleagues?

Not at all. I have nothing to do with RE agents apart from having a few of them as my neighbours. I work in IT in the CBD and my work is mainly 9-5 Mon-Fri apart from a few after hour call-outs due to P1 escalations.

Nahh.. Nice try Zachary/DGZ. Be we don't believe you. Remember we caught you out last time when your alter ego Zachary claimed he worked in IT and started waffling on about type witters, which was hilarious by the way. :)

I thought all your neighbours were foreign (cough, Chinese money launderers). What IT in the CBD? Realestate website puffery in Mandarin.

Indeed, but my fave job re-assignment for REA's and Plannerz is, of course, the Housing Factories of the near future.

The factories will have lotsa robots, CNC, clevver software and automation. Plus dogs and the aforesaid Humans.

The humans are there to feed the Dogs.

The Dogs are there to keep the Humans away from the Machines...

Yes indeed Yvil... but that is the attitude of some who hate to see anyone doing well - just venting out some anger and jealousy, that's all .... but actually , it is in thread like this where you get to have a feel of amount and bitterness of the venom that some people are prepared to lash out on SM ....

gingerninja- you appear very angry. but why kill the poor re agent. he or she has a family to feed as well. if you think they are lying, and you seem to think they are, then make your own decisions rather than let them make the decision- if it works out, hurray and if it does not, bash him-- cant see the justification of your bashing. recently i bought a property--guess what--i did not like what i had to pay--why ? because the RE helped his vendor client to get the maximum possible price- thats what he was contracted to do for his client. Hate never got anyone too far. so stop bashing. as for politicians--we had our say a week or so ago. happy bashing.

It all stems from self interest. She is waiting to buy a house here in NZ and ideally she wants the government to "fix" the issues so she can grab a bargain. All the other so-called "issues" are secondary. This is the case with most people who are praying for the market to crash.

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If self interest is also aligned to nationwide interest is there anything wrong with that? I own property in the UK, where there is also an affordability problem (although nowhere near as bad as in NZ), I fully anticipate that my house will devalue there, but unlike the many asset rich in NZ... I want property to devalue there, so that people under 40 can afford homes. I will take a hit, but I am not so self interested to think that my personal wealth is more important that an entire generation forced into wage slavery or debt bondage. I acknowledge the grievous harm wrought on society by such rapid wealth inequality and I don't want that to be the future for my kids.

Well said Gingerninja. I hope your post gets the large number of likes it deserves.

Gingerninja. Don’t forget bud this stupid game of fast lifting house prices over many many years has only really been from 2002 to 2008 . 6 years . And now in Auckland from 2012 to 2016 . 4 years . And outside Auckland the boom was late 2013 to now . 4 years . My point is this stupid behaviour has only happened for 10 years in total 2 separate times . The first simply because the economy was doing ok and the second government made because the economy wasn’t doing that great so they opened up the country to overseas investors to kick things of but refused to nip it in the butt with higher interest rates, DTI , or LVR , lucky the Chinese government put a stop to there part in all this. Even stupider we weren’t the only country to try this. My point after the people, government, RB , witness the size of this correction and I’m thinking massive, no one in there right mind would try this rubbish again. What’s the point , the proof that housing needs to rise with incomes will be fact and how many countries after the GFC said never again and in a way we’ve push it again. Na if this correction goes badly people will remember alright . Specially a ton of burned 30 to 40 year olds who’ll never forget it

I don't really understand why emotions are so readily inferred from comments. Whether I am angry or not, why is that relevant? As it is, i've had a lovely day off with my 9 and 5 year olds. The sun has been shining, they've had friends over, we've played hide and seek, lego, tramp. I'm not remotely angry. I'm expressing an opinion. But even if I was angry, that wouldn't make my opinion less valid if the sentiment was informed and well reasoned.
Your statement is to imply that there is something wrong with bashing RE agents, or politicians. I am very happy bashing politicians when they make mistake, as is my right. I have never liked RE agents. They always annoy the hell out of me, both as a buyer and a seller.
As for hate? Again, you are making uninformed assumptions. Some people just enjoy venting on the internet and winding up boomers.

I have no sympathy for RE Agents. Remember their the ones who very much help to facilitate money laundering that has helped to send Auckland's house prices sky high. And of course they don't give a rats ass about pricing out First Time Buyers from ever owning their own home.

It's about time that they significantly drop their rates if they want to keep selling and actually help property to become more affordable.

CJ099, that is a misinformed comment. RE agents are hired by the vendor with the expectation that the agent will get the best price possible for the vendors property.
When you sell your property one day are you going to have that expectation or are you going to give your property away?
As for RE agents facilitating money laundering what planet are you on? They aren't the tax dept, they don't check you bank accounts and ask you to qualify where you got your money from. They don't know if you worked hard or inherited or sold p. Its non of their business!

According to CJ099 all the RE agents are somehow involved in money laundering and they are all resided in Remuera DGZ LOL!!

@DGZ; Hey that's not just my opinion, that's the opinion NZ Justice Board! So there's no doubt about it every time you celebrating a sale of a multi million dollar home in place like Remuera, it is extremely likely that your just celebrating a Money Launder. See the attached link from the Justice Department:-

https://www.justice.govt.nz/justice-sector-policy/key-initiatives/aml-cf...

Quote: How big is this problem in NZ? It’s estimated about $1.35 billion from fraud and illegal drugs is laundered through legitimate businesses in New Zealand each year.

Quote: "Money laundering is the process criminals use to ‘clean’ the money they make from crimes such as fraud, dealing in illegal drugs and tax evasion. By making the money look like it comes from a legitimate source, they can cover their tracks and avoid detection.

They do this by buying, selling and channelling funds through things such as 'property', expensive goods and financial services. They then spend the money or use it to fund criminal activities".

@Northland Hippy: We guess what, turns out that you are the ignorant one! What your talking about is just phase one of the Anti Money Laundering measures which has proved to be rather useless, hence the reason why they need to introduce phase 2 which has a bit more stringent measures.

How about doing just a bit of research next time before you attempt to criticize others! See the attached link for the NZ Justice: https://www.justice.govt.nz/justice-sector-policy/key-initiatives/aml-cft/

Quote: "Real Estate Agents: From 1 January 2019, they’ll have to comply with the AML/CFT Act when representing someone who’s either selling or buying real estate".

So as you there won't be much in the way of significant checks in place for over another year. But even though our current Government is completely ineffective at tacking this very large issue, at least countries like China are willing to do something about it to stop money launders. Hence why the Auckland property market is starting to go in to significant decline.

Here's another article for you: China’s PBoC Announces An Army of Over 400,000 To Prevent Money Laundering
https://betterdwelling.com/chinas-pboc-announces-an-army-of-over-400000-...

The following research results came out today ... contains up to date info on markets and it makes a good read ....You can draw your own conclusions, the numbers are clear ...Enjoy.
https://www.crockers.co.nz/research-hub/auckland-property-market-researc...

Nice to read old data we pretty much no about. You could probably fine similar backward looking data at the time of the GFC 2008. It’s the mirror ball of the future you need. The main thing to remember is the housing market was going up around $10 to $20000 per month. Now it’s not. For whatever reason why not wait and see what happens next

Hallelujah
New Zealand's most expensive streets are paved with capital gains
Auckland
Cremorne St, Herne Bay: $6.554m
Minnehaha Ave, Takapuna: $5.308m
Audrey Rd, Takapuna: $4.861m
Westbury Cres, Remuera: $4.837m
Nick Johnstone Dr, Waiheke Island: $4.739m
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97548849/new-zealands-most-expensive-st...

Oh ok, so quality houses do appreciate after all ...even in a falling market , Strange!!
I have a strange feeling that this Stuff article is just to stir negative sentiments up ?

Auckland market has bottomed in July/August 2017 .... watch more reports and commentators going forward ....

Several months ago (and several years ago...), people laughed at commentators calling a top to the market...

It is clear that the bottom callers should now be laughed at.

I'd wait until the data shows a bottom first, just as many people counseled the top callers.

He he, I wouldn't celebrate too quickly DGZ. I've just taken a look at Homes.co.nz and guess what, property prices even in the expensive areas like yours are starting to slip. So looks like Tony Alexander is correct and the AKL market is most certainly in decline. Go check it out for yourself!

2007 was wall-street, 2017 is North Korea. Perhaps world civilisation is planned to be doomed in every decade.

At last, a positive, uplifting comment!

This is new! a major bank economist with negative comments about the Akld property market....

That cant be good!

You can tell which commenters here are Real Estate Agents by their comments. Very telling.

What comes through loud and clear is entitlement, self-importance, and thin-skinned special snowflakiness.

From the baby boomers? Yeah totally agree

"This is new! a major bank economist with negative comments about the Akld property market." Yes, theglc. It raises important questions. I am surprised that so few here have commented. Alexander is indirectly talking down the real estate market, something that may be a serious risk to banks. One wonders why.

Perhaps he's done his bit talking up the pump, and now it's time for the dump.

tony wasn't giving a negative outlook on Auckland property, he doesn't say prices will go down, just says prices wont go up, I can tell you there are some smart properties in AKL available for the savvy investor, run down villas with a lick of paint / kitchen upgrade and rented back out for flatting situations will still get semi respectable returns to at least cover interest. owning in a flat market is not necessarily bad as means you are on the first step to wealth generation vs. those sitting on the fence who will stay sitting there in perpetuity

TA has said repeatedly that house prices will only continue to increase because, in his view, the underlying factors haven't changed.
"But it also pays to remember that the Auckland cycle grew tired a year ago..." This is absolutely NOT what he was touting last year;
"I’ll only seriously start changing view on the Auckland housing market and its continuing potential for further price rises if something comes along to radically boost supplies of materials, cut material prices, boost builder numbers, and rein in credit supply much more than has already happened." TA Weekly Overview from 13th Oct 2016 (post-introduction of new LVR speed limits)

My opinion for what it is worth is that there is a growing realization that continued talking up of our real estate market is totally irresponsible. Why, because continued increases must eventually cause a major crash of our entire economy thus creating enormous social upheavals. Indeed, spruiking is now counterproductive because it will bring more derision from ever more of the better informed sections of our populace. I also suspect that in Auckland especially, high housing costs are impacting the profitability of many businesses. This will be generating more forces of change than that of the minnows that are property investors.

I very much agree with you Didge. And it's not just us here in Auckland but all the main gateway cities, that had experienced major overseas investment from non resident Investors over the last few years.

And yes I can confirm for you, that the dramatically increased cost of living is very much have a huge negative effect on legitimate business who can't afford to be globally competitive due to having to provide high salaries that generate high running costs for their staff to be able to live and work in Auckland.

This is what caused an International IT company that I was working for a few years ago in Auckland to go under leaving 150 people unemployed (Thankfully now I'm working for a smaller Kiwi IT company).

Though I've recently seen friends of mine who lost their jobs a month ago who also worked in the AKL district in IT. Their company closed it's door for the same reasons and their are several other companies that I know of who are also at risk.

But like I said, it's not just us who are feeling the same pain of the negative impact of a high cost of living.

Better Dwelling article: It’s Official, Vancouver Household Incomes Make No Sense
https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/its-official-vancouver-househo...

Don't have the links to hand, but remember seeing a couple of reports that businesses in Vancouver were suffering because all the money that could have supported the real economy was being sucked into the black hole of the bubble. No customers in empty 'investment' apartments, and the people still managing to hang on and live and do jobs haven't the money to spare for retail or anything else.

Yes totally agree with you Kakapo. Once property prices become decoupled from actual wages then that economy becomes a false economy and will ultimately collapse or at least go in to a server recession. That's why I'm glad that China threw on the breaks and hugely reduced their capital outflows.

Better Dwelling article: Vancouver’s Tech Scene Shows Just How F**ked Up The City’s Real Estate Is
https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouver-tech-scene-shows-jus...

Many of you on here as I have said should be more worried about improving your own lot
Rather than telling us what lowlife all landlords and real estate agents are!
Basically because they are financially better off than you means that they are lowlife!
If you think it is that easy being a landlord or real estate and they earn too much money then why don't you lower yourselves and become one?
Look, there will always be inequality financially in that some will do very well, the average do ok and survive, and then there are the ones who do bugger all and expect the country to provide them with everything and there seems to be a hell of a lot the last group that are on here!
Maybe you should have been living in Russia years ago, but now there is massive inequality over there since communism disappeared.

So many moronic assumptions ...

Hint for the stoopid: that bit about them being better off came entirely from your imagination.

Funny how all the agents on this site including The Boy jump in and protect their ilk. I wish I had a dollar for every time I heard the words " I will get your clients that home for that price" during my 30 years of practice. Not a very ethical approach when the vendor is paying their commission. In the end whether the vendor gets an extra $10 to $20k extra makes very little difference to the commission the agent gets. I

Sleazy used car salesmen with hilarious pretensions. At least used car salesmen don't put up ridiculous billboards like they're celebrities.

The Man 2. You are making silly claims because you have no idea what the incomes and backgrounds of the persons that post here are. For example "improving my own lot" would make me very greedy because I am very comfortably retired and my grandchildren being highly qualified already own their own homes. Thus I have little skin in this game. My motivation is that I hate rampant exploitation such as we now have in our housing market.
I suggest also that your choice of acronym is far more revealing about your character than the spurious claims you are making about those that do not share your opinions. Incidentally, there will be morally good and bad real estate agents so I treat them as individuals. However, I suspect the more moral ones earn less.

THE MAN 2. I don't hate, but do generally dislike RE agents because of my direct experience of them.
I don't hate landlords in general at all, and am an accidental landlord myself (NOT a professional landlord, in the sense that I only own one property, one I used to live in, and rent the property I currently live in).
Most of us are tenants and need a decent property to rent at some point in our lives, so I fully acknowledge the necessity for landlords. However, because of the current tax treatment/advantage of property investment and becoming a landlord, in addition to other factors post GFC, the property market in NZ has become toxic to NZ society. Landlords have crowded out young people who (had investors not pushed up prices) would otherwise have been able to buy. Instead they have been forced to rent for years and years longer than previous generations have had to, and watched prices inflate way above what they can save towards a deposit because wages have not kept pace with property inflation.
So in this particular context and climate, IMO, there is something deeply immoral about flaunting property prices and gloating about property portfolios on this site, and others. Property prices need to realign with wages, so that NZ can be the country that boasts a high standard of living and wealth equality again. I think it is supremely cruel to taunt those who have not been able to buy a home and rub your own wealth in their faces. It shows a lack of compassion, humanity and lack of awareness of socio-economic factors.

Ditto. Indeed, it was the flaunting herein that motivated me to be extremely against the National party.

I'm sure that when the tide turns those who have done well can confidently expect to receive as much sympathy and understanding as they gave, if things go badly for them. Too bad if they were gloating arses who failed to think ahead.

Gingerninja.
No one is flaunting wealth or property portfolios at all.
The fact is that many on here that don't own property blame investors or people that own multiple property for the lack of being able to,own.
If you are talking about Auckland then you have to appreciate that a large number of landlords up there need to cough up money out of other income each week to enable tenants to,have a roof,over their heads.
Personally don't need to do this or wouldn't want to do this, as I don't rely on capital gain for income.
There has always been people that haven't owned a home and into the future it will remain that way.
It is not a god given right living in NZ that you should,own a home and I can tell you that it is still extremely possible to be able to do this, but not doing anything but moaning about prices and putting down Real Estate agents is a sign that you will not get ahead in life. End of storey.

THE MAN 2 translation;

"i'm all right Jack, pull up the ladder" & "I got mine, society can go to shit for all I care"

Increasingly understood as "blind Boomer privilege".

There are plenty of non boomers doing this as well, it is now a rot, well and truly set in

They run losses deliberately to avoid paying tax on earned wages. That will end with a Labour government.

Fair enough The Boy. People shouldn't be so mean about your two occupations. Funny how you always say you don't rely on capital gain. You cannot do that in Christchurch anyway as your prices and rents continually retreat. Even worse when you factor in inflation. You must regret having all your as is where is "homes" in a cold quake ridden city.

Gordon, we have bought very well and each property is worth well,over what we paid for it.
However, don't care as we don't sell and with positive returns on everyone, why would I need to.
Finally, the Chch market is not heading south at all. Sales numbers are down but average price is skewed by as is property

"No one is flaunting wealth or property portfolios at all."
In a word, wrong.
"The fact is that many on here that don't own property blame investors or people that own multiple property for the lack of being able to,own."
Again, you do not know how many contributors here own properties. You are definitely a slow learner.
"If you are talking about Auckland then you have to appreciate that a large number of landlords up there need to cough up money out of other income each week to enable tenants to,have a roof,over their heads.
Personally don't need to do this or wouldn't want to do this, as I don't rely on capital gain for income."
It follows that investors by pushing up house prices faster than incomes are major instigators of this situation.
"There has always been people that haven't owned a home and into the future it will remain that way."
But your types are the ones making it worse.
"It is not a god given right living in NZ that you should,own a home and I can tell you that it is still extremely possible to be able to do this, but not doing anything but moaning about prices and putting down Real Estate agents is a sign that you will not get ahead in life. End of storey."
Yes there will always be winners and losers but now entire generations have a larger chance of becoming losers purely because of the year they were born allied with the usurious attitudes of your section of our population that primarily had the good luck to be born earlier. These pages are replete with the evidence that this is so, but there are none so blind as those that will not see!

Dodge, which part of investors don't push up prices do you not understand?

Govt change is coming. All the tax, ownership, immigration changes that brings will happen as well. Throw in an empty house tax for good measure as well. Cash will be king soon just as lots of debt will be a cancerous millstone as the stupidly leveraged watch any paper equity fade.

Headwinds have been building for over a year. It can only be greed that has anyone hoisting more sail/debt in the last 18 months. Storms about to hit.

Averageman, this is the negativity that prevails in many people on here, and that is why they have missed the boat with their investing.
Opportunities are around at all times, but if you are not looking for them they will not come your way.

Respectfully disagree tm2. Have com and res investments and been involved around prop sector all my adult life. The market is as poked as big daddy said because of the factors regularly discussed here. I am more concerned for my staff and my childrens hopes of having the benefits and rewards home ownership brings, vs the Im ok so screw everyone else.

Three terms of Helegrad went to far one way. Three terms of Mr Key has has done the same. Selling NZ tax payers out to overseas money and record speculator bank debt needs to change.

PS professional investors will have seen changes and made preperations (reduce debt). Most however are not.

When I went out and bought my first home, I did not have much, borrowed high. What happened, I lost my dear purchase to a mortgagee sale. Gave me a good lesson- buy only when you are ready. Look at what happened in usa prior to GFC. What did the govt. do to remain popular. They formed fredie mac and fannie may to facilitate loans to anybody who wanted a house--the govt told them its the citizens right to own- again to remain popular with all who held that view including the NINJA borrowers. The GFC Tsunami came and.........................

Averageman, ok I was not referring to you.
I would love everyone to own their own home in Nz as it would help the country long term financially.
The reality is that there are so many financially illiterate people in Nz and leave school with no real knowledge that makes them able to cope once they leave home.
I know this from what my kids have been taught at uni, but I have helped them with this, but many parents don't have the necessary knowledge or skills.
As I have stated many times, the Auckland market is not the Nz market, and I still beleive it is possible to build a profitable property portfolio away from Auckland providing you get advice from the right people, be prepared to work hard and buy right.

Property in New Lynn, GV 560 k, sold in auction on Friday for 930k. Land around 600 sm, house abt 100 sm. no garage, just an improvised car port, one toilet. The market is alive and kicking well.

The Block Northcote 1.2 Mill. Not that expensive across the bridge from Auckland.

These bank economists get their paychecks from Australian employers. The oz banks exposure to the Akl market is a small fraction of the oz market, the banks are worried about the Melbourne & Brisbane markets, Sydney holding up but may not continue.
Heard one guy in Brisbane last week comment that it's on a cliff edge. Tony may be using some spin to get his employers message out. This is telling:
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-21/how-interest-rate-rises-could-a...