A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; NZCU Baywide trims an online saver rate, consumer confidence average, terms of trade strong, rents firm, a thank you from us, swaps and NZD firm

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today. Enjoy your long weekend.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
NZCU Baywide has trimmed their online saver rate by -10 bps. The new $1,000 min level rate is now 2.40%. For deposits of 20K and more, it is now 2.55%. Heartland

FOUR MONTHS WORTH ON OFFER
Since February, when the level of housing for sale represented 15 weeks of sales, it has now risen to 17 weeks as at the end of May. Over the same period in 2017, the shift was from 16 weeks to 18 weeks, so this year is a little less stressed. However, the story is quite different regionally. In Auckland, the move has been from 18 to 21 weeks, similar to last year. In Waikato it is 14 to 17. in Hawkes Bay from 7 to 10 weeks, Wellington from a low 7 to now 8 weeks, Canterbury has shifted from 18 to 21 weeks of inventory and near its highest point since 2012.

NOT GUNG HO
Even though business confidence fell in yesterday's review, consumer confidence held steady at its much lower level (even though this level is near its historical average). In May the ANZ-Roy Morgan index is 121, down from 128 in March. ANZ said "Households are feeling pretty good due to a strong labour market and still low interest rates, but are not gung ho. In our view the household saving rate needs to lift from here, so middle-of-the-road confidence is not a bad thing."

A SLIP OFF AN ALL-TIME HIGH
In the March quarter, New Zealand's terms of trade slipped following dairy prices lower. Both export and import prices fell, down -2.2% and -0.3% respectively. The overall -1.9% fall in the terms of trade in March follows five quarters of rises, with an all-time high in the December 2017 quarter. The overall track from 2002 has been an impressive rise. It is not often a commodity-based economy can put together a 15+ year rising track record like this. If you step back, it is something we should be proud of (at least if you are a data geek like me). The improvement belies the screeching narrative "we are getting taken advantage of because of low value commodities". That is clearly wrong (but it still plays well enough to help get a minor political party into power - it doesn't have to be true to have that effect.)

RENTS FIRM
Median rents in May are back at $450/week for a 3 br house, nationally. That is $23,400 over a year and is paid out of after tax income. This is their all-time high, levels first reached in February. In Auckland, the median rent is holding at $650/week ($33,800 per year), in Wellington it has slipped from $622 to $600/week, while in Christchurch it is at $425/week (and still well below the $450/week level first reached in 2014). National median rents for a 2 br flat have now reached a record high of $360/week.

HOLDING PAYDAY LENDERS TO ACCOUNT
The Commerce Commission has commenced High Court proceedings against payday lender Ferratum New Zealand under the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act 2003 over alleged breaches of the lender responsibility principles. We highlighted the very high payday lending cost-of-credit in our November 2017 story here. Yesterday the Commission launched a lender website review, which looked at the websites of 215 lenders to determine if they were likely to be complying with their responsibilities under the CCCFA. We also launched a simple calculator so you can check the effectoive cost of credit of any loan arrangement, here. It is an eye-opener for everyone who uses it.

SECURITISING LOANS BACKED BY HOUSING
Avanti Finance has contracted with Westpac to arrange a series of investor meetings. A New Zealand RMBS transaction may follow subject to market conditions. Avanti Finance is essentially a personal loans financier although it has recently branched out into business lending and takes residential property as security. It is a company ultimately controlled by Glenn Hawkins.

HOUSING NZ TAKES ON $0.5 BLN IN MORE DEBT
Housing New Zealand has raised $500 mln in two tranches today. The five year Notes cost them 2.97% while the seven year notes will cost them 3.36% in interest. Over the five and seven year terms, HNZ will need to repay $596 mln in total.

BIGGER PAYOUTS
Both Synlait Milk and Westland Milk announced changes to their 2017/18 milk payout rate and gave early forecasts for their 2018/19 season. Synlait says for the 2017/18 season payout will now likely be $6.65/kgMS, up from $6.50/kgMS. Those suppliers on the Premium plan will get another $0.13. Next season, Synlait Milk is targeting $7.00/kgMS, the same as Fonterra. Westland Milk says 2017/18's payout will come in with the range of $6.10-$6.30/kgMS which actually is lower than the previous indication of $6.10-$6.40/kgMS. For the new season Westland is forecasting $6.75-$7.20/kgMS. Westland, who are New Zealand's second largest dairy co-op, has been though a very rough patch, but now claims they are seeing much improved sales for premium products and their enhanced ITN and UHT capacity. The updated situation can be seen here.

NOT AT WORK
A reminder for readers outside New Zealand: it is a public holiday here on Monday - Queen's Birthday. We will be publishing normally as though it is a weekend day.

ALMOST A RECORD, AGAIN
And a thank you to all our loyal readers. You are a growing community. We delivered our stories and data content to 235,779 unique readers in May, the second highest in a month ever (and only eclipsed by September 2017 which was an election month). And that is a +15% gain over the same month a year ago. (In the last 12 months, 1,951,592 readers came to the site at least once in the year. It's support that still astounds us all here.) On a weekday basis, about 17,000 unique readers pile in to the stories we publish. They access stories and content about 55,000 times each day. (Just for perspective, about 90 to 100 people make comments on an average day, or about ½% of our readers.) And you might be surprised to know that more than 58% of our readers are 45 yrs and younger - 27% are 25-34 (the largest single cohort), while 26% are 35-44 yrs.

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES RISE
Local swap rates are up by +2 bps across the board today. The UST 10yr yield has risen again, also up +2 bps to 2.87%. The Aussie Govt 10 yr is now at 2.69% (up +4 bps). The China 10 yr is at 3.65%, up +1 bp. And the NZ Govt 10 yr is also up +1 bp to 2.77%. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp to 2.01%.

BITCOIN FIRM
The bitcoin price is now at US$7,485 which is up +2.0%% from this time yesterday.

NZ DOLLAR UP
The NZD is up to 70.1 USc. And we are slightly higher against the Aussie at 92.7 AUc, and the euro at 60 euro cents. That has the TWI-5 now at 73.1, ending the week with a +100 bps gain or +1.4% higher than this time last week.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.