Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes here.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
HSBC has raised some term deposit rates for terms of 9 months and less. Aotearoa Credit Union has cut all its TD rates for terms of 6 months and longer.
HANGING IN THERE
While the ANZ Truckometer readings of heavy and light freight traffic softened a bit in July, they are still clearly on an upward trend. This data is a good forward indicator of GDP growth and it is still pointing to a ~3% rate.
OFF ITS LOWS
The ANZ inflation gauge is suggesting a little firmness in terms of price rises. It is pointing to a +2.5% rate and now suggesting the lower exchange rate is forcing some inflation back into the economy. (Actually, their index is +2.7% higher in July than the same month a year ago.) ANZ's monitoring is monthly and independently constructed to the Stats NZ quarterly series.
MOVING UP AGAIN
The RBNZ commissioned survey of inflation expectations that is carried out for them by Nielsen has seen a small firming to +2.04% pa. That is higher than the +2% recorded on average in 2017, and well above the +1.65% they recorded in 2016. Consumers see rising prices even if they don't see much of a gain. Today's data may have reported a tiny gain, but the currency markets sure noticed (see below). Oddly, they seemed to ignore the drop in economic growth expectations.
PULLING BACK
In Australia, financing of housing is slowing. Although it is up in the full twelve months to June from the same year a year ago, the gains are evoprating for both the purchase of new dwellings (-2.7% June-on-June) and the purchase of existing dwellings (-3.2%). The tide has certainly turned.
POSITIVE, EXCEPT ...
The patriotic positives of yesterday on the Shanghai stock exchange have given way today to a solid -0.5% fall. The only other equities exchange falling today has been the Argentina one which slumped -3.8% as strikes grip the country.
HOUSEKEEPING
If you are a supplier to interest.co.nz you should note that we no longer have a post office box. It has been closed after lack of use. Our postal address is now 206 Jervois Road, level 1, Herne Bay, Auckland 1011.
SWAP RATES FIRM
Local swap rates are up +1 bp across the whole curve. The UST 10yr is firmer at 2.97%, up +2 bps from where it was this time yesterday. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.68% (unchanged), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.49% down -1 bp, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.78%, unchanged. The 90 day bank bill rate is also unchanged at 1.89%.
BITCOIN DOWN
The bitcoin price is now at US$6,594, down -5.0% from where it was this time yesterday. Delays in the US SEC approving a bitcoin ETF are likely to be behind the chunky fall.
NZD BOUNCES
The NZD jumped +20 bps when the inflation expectations data was released and is now at 67.5 USc. We are also higher on the cross rates at 90.9 AUc, and the euro at 58.1 euro cents. That leaves the TWI-5 up just under 71.1.
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Daily exchange rates
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11 Comments
The govt has stuck a spanner in the residency scam that is the “international education sector”. RNZ said this morning that Chinese enrolments were down 20%. Good riddance. Apparently our international education sector isn’t so attractive unless it has residency preferences attached to it. Why we don’t just sell the residency rights on eBay and not bother with the “education”, I’ll never know. That the govt of the day acquiesced in this obvious immigration rort is a national scandal.
One NZ universities falls somewhere in the top 200 global rankings for diversity and a few of its faculties but most of the programmes on offer in NZ (including at UofA) rank nowhere in top global rankings.
Lawmakers, although often uses the term “world-class” to describe the education we export, know well enough how many people will show up on our shores if we cut the obvious pathway to residency.
I guess it is this sense of self-awareness and complete disregard for the average New Zealander’s well-being makes these politicians dangle permanent visas in the faces of international students.
Our universities aren't what they used to be anyway. Today they are significantly government funded - and so indirectly government controlled - and have become partisan tools for social engineering, brainwashing, political correctness, the promotion of popular "science" dogmas and the supression of informed debate. The recent Massey University debacle was no surprise to me. I consider the CoLs funding for first year free to be less about education and more about how to expose more young NZers to their brainwashing. I wouldn't my kids to have to suffer any universities here.
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