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With Auckland's lockdown reaching day 62, Gareth Vaughan argues it's time for more carrot and less stick, at least for vaccinated rule followers

With Auckland's lockdown reaching day 62, Gareth Vaughan argues it's time for more carrot and less stick, at least for vaccinated rule followers
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Like the film Groundhog Day, when the main character relives the same day again and again, we in Tāmaki Makaurau have now been in either Covid-19 alert level 3 or 4 for 62 consecutive days.

The only reason I know this is because interest.co.nz contributor Terry Baucher sends out an upbeat tweet every morning and Monday's one says it's day 62.

That means it has been two months since a Devonport man tested positive for the Covid-19 Delta variant way back in mid-August. You know the rest...

Early on in this lockdown I wrote an article, which among other things, criticised people demanding certainty in such an uncertain world. I went so far as questioning whether we ought to ask the virus what its plans were.

That was at a point when the lockdown was young and there was some hope we might just be able to knock this outbreak on the head relatively quickly, buy ourselves more vaccination time, and return to alert level 2 or even 1. 

However, as we now know we didn't get there. It felt like we got close, but once Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield started talking about cases among people living in transitional housing, and it was clear Covid was spreading due to rule breaking, I knew the game was up.

Thus the hope of a relatively short lockdown was over and we moved into this current muddle through period which much of the rest of the world knows so well. This is where a somewhat looser lockdown goes on and on and daily Covid case numbers continuously bubble away.

In recent times the addition of picnics, or small outdoor gatherings with friends and family, has been welcome. And it was heartening that 130,000 people got vaccinated on Saturday in the Vaxathon.

Bloomfield says Auckland's poised to reach the 90% first vaccine mark for those aged 12 and over this week.  Additionally the outbreak in the Waikato appears to be under control (touch wood), and the Northland scare will hopefully amount to only that, a scare.

Across the country 85% of eligible New Zealanders have now had their first dose, with 65% fully vaccinated.

Thus the time has come for more carrot and less stick for us vaccinated and compliant Aucklanders, and yes, some certainty as lockdown drags on. We need to see some light at the end of the tunnel that's not an oncoming train. 

The fourth school term started today with Auckland's school kids and their teachers still working from home. Paediatrician Jin Russell has set out here what could be done to make it as safe as possible for Auckland schools to reopen. So when will schools be able to go back? Will it be this year? Will it be when a certain vaccination level is reached? It'd be great to get a pointer on this.

Elsewhere the hospitality and retail sectors deserve to know how and when they might be able to open beyond click and collect and online sales. Will al fresco dining and outdoor coffee meetings be a first step?

What are the full details of how and where the digital vaccination certificates, or vaccine passports, will fit in?

And under what circumstances will the Auckland border be removed? Could a first step be that vaccinated Aucklanders who've had a negative Covid test are allowed to leave the city from a certain date or when the national vaccination rate reaches a specific level?

There are moves to allow people with Covid-19 to isolate at home, rather than in a managed quarantine facility, and questions about what this might mean for New Zealanders wanting to return from overseas struggling to get places in managed isolation (MIQ). There's also the home isolation pilot for business travelers going overseas and returning getting underway. 

Against this backdrop calls continue for some sort of "circuit breaker" level 4 lockdown in Auckland. I don't believe this would work at this point. And I can't help noticing most of the people calling for it don't live in Auckland. I wonder why, if some people aren't following the rules at level 3, we'd suddenly expect them to do so at level 4?

And imagine how tired and stressed some of Auckland's police must be with ongoing efforts to enforce lockdown rules and keep the border secure.

While the health authorities continue to do their best to suppress the Auckland outbreak, Covid-19 appears to be here to stay in the City of Sales for some time. Meanwhile the rest of the country remains in elimination mode.

Something will have to give at some point. My bet is more of the rest of you will be getting Covid in your communities before we in Auckland get rid of it. And this means that all of us will be living with some ongoing restrictions for some time yet, especially if you want one or both of Auckland and overseas tourists back.

Of course we want to keep Covid case numbers as low as possible. We know our health system and intensive care unit (ICU) capacity could struggle if we don't. And no one wants to catch the virus. 

Bloomfield said last week that of the 158 people hospitalised since the start of the outbreak, only three were fully vaccinated. So encourage those who aren't vaccinated to get vaccinated. Meanwhile, it may not be long before children aged between five and 11 become eligible for the Pfizer vaccination.

In my August article I noted one thing I've kept in mind throughout the pandemic is that for the policy makers and politicians there are no good options when Covid-19 gets into the community. It becomes a choice of what they think the least bad option is. And then they have to cross their fingers and hope their plan survives contact with a fast moving, mutating and invisible enemy. 

Frankly I'm glad I don't have to make these calls. They're still difficult. But our vaccination levels and understanding of the virus have improved significantly. Therefore it'd be good to know now just what it'll take for Aucklanders' lives to normalise more. Hopefully we'll get some details from the Prime Minister at her post-Cabinet press conference from 4pm.

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120 Comments

"Just one more week whanau...honestly 😉"

Anyone noticed that that Bloomfield & co are now directly talking about 90% rate being second jab, for the whole country before easing restrictions.

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Since we are all going to catch COVID-19 in the end, and probably repeatedly, here is some help from a lovely Auckland doctor https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZoBb-ngk5k

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NO! I am sorry but the Government's and Police's "soft" approach isn't and hasn't worked. I agree that the majority of those in Auckland probably followed the rules, but it is those who didn't, to any degree, who put everyone at risk. What is needed is a very hard lock down with significant penalties for ANYONE breaching the rules. We heard for over a week about the two sex workers (prostitutes) who went north, and I understand others went south, and that none are cooperating with the Police as to their movements. Well, make their identities public and then the communities will tell them where they went! Privacy must be predicated on cooperation, not the other way around. The public angst against the party goers should send a message to anyone who chooses to break the rules, that their communities will not stand for it. 

A report released last week, which I heard being discussed on RNZ on Friday identified that upwards of 30% of those who catch COVID are left with long lasting (more than 6 months) of debilitating effects. For everyone to be protected we need to lockdown hard, and be very hard on the rule breakers. Anything less just puts everyone at risk!

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It has gone on too long. Lockdown is too anti the natural freedom NZrs expect to have as a right. Imposing unnatural conditions will invariably result in unnatural behaviour, even the most law abiding are prone to misbehave if pressured beyond a point. It is a natural instinct to resist oppression, much history down the ages, tells us that doesn’t it. And on  top of that there are sufficient elements in NZ’s underworld, and associate underclass, whose life style and business has always been running contrary to the law. That carry on  was never going to change, be eliminated. For reasons not necessary to explain, New Zealand is neither equipped nor experienced in imposing martial law as can be found in dictatorships and similar regimes. God defend New Zealand if it should ever be.

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Foxglove

Re: "natural freedom NZrs expect to have as a right"

Get over it.

I don't expect to have the right to walk down Queen waving a rifle about. 

Nor do I have the freedom to get p*ssed and jump in and drive a car. 

I see little difference; like Covid asserting I expect to have rights to do is putting people's safety and life at risk.  

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Interesting. The law enforced, to stop such as Stanley Graham, or preventing drunken mayhem on our highways are there precisely to protect the right of individuals to pursue life as freely and safely as possible. Obviously times, such as world war rationing, or response to catastrophes such as earth quakes will intervene. Most normal people understand that easily enough but that doesn’t mean that patience and durability will not eventually where thin where there is no direction or substance being offered as to an end. Whether  you like it or not people, especially in protracted “bad times’”  are inevitably going to react, and in many different manners and methods.

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What people all over the city are feeling is helplessness, confined and suffocation from being penned in at home. And of course, a sense of disconnect because we're not (thankfully) seeing a truly apocalyptic-style scenario playing out. There aren't apocalypse-level piles of dead bodies, mayhem or breakdown of law and order.

While Covid is unpleasant, it hasn't produced those scenes (not yet anyway because we have yet to experience the breakdown of supply chains and subsequent high food and goods prices), so more and more people feel a growing subconscious disbelief in the severity of it. (If there'd been no lockdown the last couple of months and Delta had spread like wildfire with higher number of cases and deaths, the sentiment would be a whole lot different...) What we cannot see, we find harder to believe for long.

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Do you believe in the UN universal declaration of human rights? 

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murray86 - Many would have agreed in the past but it's way too late for such punitive actions.

Auckland is 110% over lockdowns with no targets to meet to end this !

I live in the Auckland area, do you ? and I assure you, you and Arden can stick your Lev4, it wouldn't work and I would not follow it !

Done my bit, been a good wee boy, been double jabbed, if this drags on myself and almost every one I know would be at arranged protests !

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What about the rest of us who have a right not to be infected by you? What about our right to have a healthy life because we weren't infected by you?

Get over it, If you don't comply with lockdown rules and you catch it and give it to someone else, then you should be charged with a serious charge akin to GBH. If someone dies because you gave it to them, you should be charged with manslaughter. Self entitled posers should not be able to put others at risk just because life is a little hard, or unfair. To quote my Grandfather from about 40 years ago; "Who told you life would be easy or fair boy? It isn't! Get over it! Harden up and do what you have to!" He tossed an expletive or two in there for emphasis as well.

A report I heard being discussed last week that studied 100,000 + who had caught COVID in the UK, US and Europe identified that 30%+ were suffering ongoing negative impacts more than 6 months later. COVID is serious, not just a 'little' flu. So stay home. If you see someone breaking the rules call the Police. Don't claim it is not your problem or job, because it is both of those, because if you don't you or your family may catch it, and one or some may just die from it! And even if they don't die, they may suffer from a less than healthy, abbreviated life from it. How can that be 'not your problem'?

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Then it becomes a personal responsibility doesn’t it. NZ has offered two types of protection. Elimination and vaccination. The former has failed. The government was complacent and irresponsibly, foolishly rested on that for far too long. Delta is in, and out and about, up and running. The government now admits covid could reach any one of us. It is now only a matter of time. For some,  sooner might in fact  be better, with the vaccine’s effectiveness still being stronger. That is the new reality, it doesn’t matter who brings it and when, it is a highly probable eventuality.You  are either protected by some degree  by way of vaccine, or wide open to the vagaries of covid itself. The option is up to the individual, to decide for themselves,  if the former is more dangerous than the latter.

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murray86 - Good grief mate, you're talking like everyone in Auckland has Covid 19 ???

Maybe the sooner it is right through the country the better then we can all be at the same level and travel around ??

You clearly have been indoctrinated by "The Tooth Fairy's Fear Machine " !

And NO I'm not going to be an ' Informant ' - Grow up ! enough is enough We've done enough !

If you can't face the new reality that we have to live with Covid then isolate - Forever

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What’s happening is, those of you here who believed the lies of the government and health authorities, that once vaccinated we all can go back to normal, are finally waking up to reality! This stupid coercion to be vaccinated is not going to help a lot to getting back to normal. Far from it. Because vaccination does not really protect you very well. Does it? If it would, why would everyone be so totally freaked out about catching the virus after being vaccinated? You fools!

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Utter rubbish! Vaccination was only ever a step in the process towards elimination not because it stopped you getting it, but because it's virulity was less if you did, and therefore the spread was less. This meant it would be easier to contain, and then eliminate. So there is still the need to be vaccinated. 

But there is the problem of 'special interest groups'. My view of most of these is that they are racist. Maori don't want to get vaccinated because the person giving it to them is not brown like them - racism. Maori don't believe the Government or the health advice because they are not being given it by someone who is Maori - racism. We are bending over backwards pandering to people who don't want to help themselves. 

As to getting freaked out about catching the virus; are you happy to catch it? What will you do, who will you blame if it kills you or leaves you with some long lasting legacy that denies you full quality of life? I am not a worrier, nor a scaremongerer who frets on the little things, but the research, the readily available information is that COVID is a threat to EVERYONE, not just the elderly and vulnerable. And if I catch it because some self entitled poser who thought his rights to socialise or move around when he was infected, over rides mine to being virus free, then I will be extremely pissed off!

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Would you be “pissed off differently” if you caught the virus from a vaccinated person?

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I'd be pissed off period. One of the most important messages coming from COVID is that there is no such thing as a 'little cold' or 'just the flu', so we need to stay home when we are coming down with something and actively try no to share it with others. But if a person is vaccinated, the evidence is that the virulity is reduced, so the chance of spreading or catching it is less. Plus I am fully vaccinated too, but I still don't want to catch it. It is a gift that just keeps on giving.

This is hard I know. A month or two back I came down with a cold (I was tested, it wasn't COVID) and it was very hard to make the decision to stay home and not work through it. But I did it. fortunately i have never abused my sick leave provisions, so my boss was very accommodating, and i needed three days. But this was also a lesson I learnt when running teams in the Air Force, that i should have remembered. It is a lot easier to be told to stay home, than it is to make the decision for yourself. 

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Sorry but you are going to catch covid no matter who you hang out with.  87% of adults in the UK who caught covid in the last 4 weeks were vaccinated. So not only are you going to get it, but you are probably going to give it to others, and thus be one of those people you claim to abhor.  The reason being is that transmission is usually accomplished before you ever get symptoms, so there will be a lot of infected vaccinated people wandering around spreading it everywhere.

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Let's get some perspective.

Opening up doesn't mean you automatically get it. You still need to catch it first. So be clear what the risk is when discussing less restrictions. 

And Yes I'm happy to risk catching it, if this means international travel and my kids being able to socialise properly and get an actual school education.

Happy to accept 500-800 deaths annually.

Also, Happy for you to stay at home and wear ppe for the next 5 years if you are risk adverse. Everyone should get choice at this point. 

Our current response is totally out of proportion to both the cost and international standards. Be in no two minds here, our approach is unique in the developed world. 

The reality is that Jacinda Ardern, beneath the fluffy media control, is a hard core socialist. Money grows on trees, strong central control. State knows best.

Over the last 6 years she has promised everyone everything, but not delivered diddly squat, aside from increasing govt control and locking us all down.

A pandemic is every socialists wet dream. Any excuses to take over control, for your own good. 

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What if one of those 500 - 800 deaths was you, one of your kids or some other member of your family? Still happy to accept it?

The really annoying thing is the level of stupidity in this debate. People who blissfully blunder through life believing that bad shit only ever happens to other people. Your comment suggests that you are happy to sacrifice other people to your enjoyment of life, but ignore the possibility that that sacrifice may actually be yourself or one of your kids.

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Vaccination - 95%+ reduction in likelihood of severe case of covid/hospitalisation

Vaccination - 70%+ reduction in likelihood of contracting covid

C_T_20 - 100% likelihood of fact free reckons

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Whatever… For those people here that are interested in some better qualified opinions from scientists with likely a little more knowledge than yours, here is a lengthy, but very informative video with 3 epidemiologists from India, South Africa and the US (originally from Germany I think):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RLHYvc9JJ8

It should be said before you watch it, if you don’t see it in its entirety, you likely miss some interesting point each of them makes. They are also seemingly presenting their data and knowledge in a very neutral fashion and uncoloured by politics. very rare and what ‘follow the science’ really should be like!

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Get vaccinated you idiot.

If you dont want to get infected, get vaccintaed. 

We cant make it more simpler than that.

I give you until 1/12/21 to get Vaccinated then I am opening up the country.

Dec 1 2021 OPEN UP DAY !!

You heard it here first.

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Get vaccinated you idiot.

If you dont want to get infected, get vaccintaed. 

You are the idiot here if you don’t know that vaccinated people also spread the virus… the only debate is how much or little less or more than unvaccinated people! Just how many times do people have to point it out to you lot that blindly repeat lies and propaganda! 

And while we are at the educational part of this post, here is a link that raises lots more questions about the abject failure of leaders in both, health care field and government are letting all of New Zealand down… Please read to the end and think for a while before replying to this post!

https://new.voicesforfreedom.co.nz/blog/post/new-study-shows-potential-…

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And as for schools: Nov 1 2021 OPEN UP DAY!! 

If we admitted all the people who had become stressed/made mentally unwell by the lockdown restrictions to hospital - then you'd really know what a crisis looks like.  But we don't 'count' mental wellbeing - and the ill-effects of this - in the statistics.

I've had a university class of 80 students this semester.  I reckon roughly a third of them have had negative mental health effects from this lockdown.  All kinds of different stresses, but nonetheless all very personally distressing. 

For our collective mental wellbeing, we need to open up. We need to get back to relative normality and accept the virus will be active in our communities. Protection for all adults is free and has been for long enough now. People have made their choices.  Anyone who wants the vaccination but cannot travel for whatever reason, should be afforded a home visit vaccination - no questions asked. 

Let's just do it, Jacinda.  

 

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I lecture part time Kate and I'm seeing higher rates of mental stress and depression than this in students. I do this at the Uni of Auckland, is that where you do yours?  

It's the 'silent illness' out there, and frankly the government's lack of acknowledgment of this is a disgrace. 

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Thanks for commenting as well.

I'm at Massey but teaching in distance mode, so have students of all ages and walks of life from everywhere - with a majority in the AKL region (pretty much my split sort of matches population distribution nationwide).

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Get a grip man. 

Look around the globe. There is no fairy tale world where this does not spread.

If you are so concerned with catching the virus, no one is stopping you from locking yourself up at home for the next 4 years.

I want my kids to get an actual school education. 

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Are you sure that vaccination stops all transmission?

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He doesn't live in Auckland, and like many who don't he doesn't 'get' the mental anguish that MANY (and trust me it's many) are going through.

 

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Yep, I agree Shoreman, our family with 2 teenagers, 2 homestays, Tongans and all, are all double vaccinated.

The so called "Lockdown Regime" Grand Poohba Michael Baker, only got his second jab a few days ago.

The religeous lockdown zealots arent even following their own advice.

Open Up NZ

NOW !!!!!!!!!!!

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to be honest I think they've done us a favour or we'd be still muddling along eliminated and vaccinated and still patting ourselves on the back throughout summer and then having to face it further down the track, possibly during winter. The vaccine is now available to all - time to move on and stop fooling ourselves that community spread is avoidable. Do we wait another 6-12 mths for an antiviral, boosters and vaccine v2 in the vain hope we can still avoid it? No thanks - take the shots (or not) and open up.

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OPEN UP NOW

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Nah, I don't believe in naming and shaming. BUT there should be strong penalties and they MUST be enforced.

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The soft approach has been tried HM. It is clearly not working. Time to get past that. Naming and shaming is still less than formal charges and will get peoples attention.

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The only thing naming and shaming will do is guarantee that sick people won't even go to get tested.  If you don't get tested, you don't get caught.

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Your strong penalties wouldn't work anymore than the current lvl3 restrictions. 

Its going to spread. Get over it.

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Lockdowns kill by holding people in place, when the virus reaches each new section of the country there is maximum vulnerability in that community. 

If we open up there are fewer deaths, because the number of recovered people quickly spread and these slow the transmission of the virus even more than the vax.

Now we are passed elimination, lockdown is the worst Covid strategy. 

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Not sure how Labour expect this to end, keeping the people that obey the rules locked up, that aren't spreading it anyway, while effectively turning a blind eye to the continuous rule breakers, it's not hard to get the impression that they don't want to police gangs and other sections of NZ anymore.

It doesn't matter what level you are in if you don't go after the rule breakers that are spreading it.

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Seriously time to move on ! Perspective has been lost in this.

Only "2" deaths in this outbreak out of 1700 odd cases ??

Whilst serious illness can occur from Covid 19 - Delta, the FEAR FACTOR has been way over stated !

Vaccinations, indoor mask wearing, social distancing, No reason not to have a DATE for our freedom day !

We could eliminate the yearly FLU too, but choose to live with it and 600 deaths/annum !

We could try to eliminate suicides, but choose to live with 600/annum.

Time to get over the fear of Covid, all do our bit and start living again.

28 deaths, 18 months and $60 billion, get vaccinated or take the personal risk 

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1. Two deaths but this was DURING lockdown - can you guarantee it'd be 2 if there HADN'T been lockdown?

2. Funny you should mention flu but worldwide, the number of cases of regular flu has dropped dramatically, that's a silver lining...?

3. Yeah, suicides may actually go up... although maybe not as we approach summer?

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It would need to be about 60 deaths to be comparable to the road toll. Yes without lockdown it could have been bad, but lockdown has done its part, we are largely vaccinated, the case numbers are still low, and if they put us in level 2.5 today as they should have, by the time cases and deaths got to any serious levels, we would be at 90% or so double vaxed in Auckland. We don’t even know if we are getting more freedom in 2 weeks when we will be 10% more vaccinated than Melbourne who are stopping their lockdown. 

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Don't be scared by the worst case scenarios. These are deliberately played out in media to push compliance and acceptance of rules. 

And yes we are completely out of proportion in our response. JA has lost the plot "in for a Dollar..." etc. it's now a complete social crusade. Completly out of touch with what the Auckland public want. 

When we actually see people dying daily. That's when we get worried. We are not even close to the numbers you say above. 

No one wants people to die, but how many millions of dollars are we borrowing, inflation through the roof (that's a pay cut for the whole country), small businesses under huge pressure. Thousands of kids missing out on basic school education. 

Its not worth the cost. This is not even close to rational. 

Fo what? To save (largely) a few people whos lives are already limited. It not like these people are going to be the ones paying all this money back. Just you wait, after the virus the new buzz word will be "austerity" 

If your worried about the virus, isolate yourself. Do your ppe equipment hand sanitiser bubble bs. Let those of us (vast majority) who are healthy, vaccinated get on with life.

 

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Singapore is highly vaccinated and with a similar population size to NZ.  They are seeing 3000 new cases and 10 deaths a day from Covid.  If you think you've seen panic now, let me tell you you aint seen nothing yet.

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Yup what next? Ban people driving cars to eliminate car crash deaths? Ban people from swimming in both ocean, pools and bathtubs to eliminate drownings. Might have to ban boats also. What about aeroplanes? What about sex? Don't want to get HIV do you?

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Have friends and family in Auckland. It is beyond alarming to hear features  of heavy drinking amongst those previously modest at best. And worse, the negativity and dire impact on children and infants who simply are not equipped to either understand or cope with the pressures and restrictions that are now surrounding them. There is huge  psychological, economical and social consequences impacting and compounding. Enough is now more than enough by any standards.

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My drinking and weight is way up, and that's common from what I am seeing. 

It's fucken atrocious how little attention the govt seems to be giving to the mental impacts of this lockdown. 

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Hope Jacinda pays for this pain she's inflicting at the next election. 

 

Fish and chips not good PM training ground. 

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5 people have drowned in the Manukau Harbour over the last 8 days. Lets Ban boating on the harbour.

 

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No lifejackets for 3, you cant legislate against stupidity.

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Ahah! But We can lock them in thier homes whilst we come up with a plan.

A new plan. Not like the old plan. This plan has stages, not levels. 

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You could create lifejacket passports though

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Yep, 1 death out of current 1,700 cases, approx.

They say 400,000 are not first vaccinated, well it was at one stage.

So max 400 deaths total.

Not the BS 7,000 per year that rubbish model showed.

Plus they will have the pill for seriously sick people.

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I'm in favour of level 4... but only for unvaccinated people. Everyone else to go level 2 plus masks.

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Wait, what stick was there? In some countries, you'd get fined 1,000s of dollars if you were caught not wearing a mask...

Plenty of carrots now, but none for the ones who did their duty and cared for their community to get vaccinated as early as possible...

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Masks are basically pointless. They hardly lower the R value at all. Maybe 10% max.

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Yeah, but you know those people around you who have bad breath (BB) and you'd liked to tell them about it but never got the guts to do so?

Now you don't have to worry about that because they can smell their own BB and be aware without you having to go through the awkwardness of telling them or hinting to them, like offering them gum frequently...

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Good point Tigadee. You have won me over to the masking cause.

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oh donny can you please share the source of your infinite wisdom?

 

I doubt that mask wearing is pointless and would like to see some proof for your baseless claims.

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https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02457-y

Enjoy. Glad you appreciate my infinite wisdom not many people do.

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Yes, we all know that the type of mask they allow is more of a Pavlov's dog whistle, keeps us busy, helps identify non-compliers in general, and is good training for us, so when they ask us to do the next step, we will be more willing.

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10% is pretty good for a minor inconvenience. We could be at 54 cases a day instead of 60, perhaps the difference between moving down a level. Sure I don’t want it long term, but at the moment it’s not that hard really. 

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Bloomfield talking of a 'circuit breaker" level 4 lockdown in Auckland. Could mean one of two things.

1) The govt is considering it

2) The rats are starting to jump ship. Bloomfield knows that the govt is going to push with reopening and he wants to distance himself that decision. That way when the ICU's full up he can be the guy that "told us we should have gone for the level 4 circuit breaker".

 

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The government has come to realise that any amount  of  “percentage of vaccination” does not mean that hospitals will not be overloaded, by pockets in communities, from Northland to Southland, of those unvaccinated by reason or wish. This question has literally been ignored right up until now by the disingenuous distraction , panic if you like, on vaccination numbers day by day. Now that the numbers are nearing their likely peak, the truth of the matter is thus being revealed by the inability, despite that,  to make any adjustment to the present levels. Yes the government had over 18 months to keep this problem at bay via successfully eliminating Covid, but until now it hadn’t dawned on them, to have any back up plan as to hospital service abilities should elimination one day fail.

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Level 4 circuit breaker seems like a terrible idea.

Government should be returning liberties not taking them away.

Establish a clear timetable, one with actual dates, for when things will get to level 2 or some reasonable version of it.  Most people have had enough time to get the vaccine. We can give the stragglers a few more weeks, but not more. People need to live their lives.

Similarly we should be relaxing rules at the border. Start immediately by reducing the time in MIQ down to 7 days which would double capacity. Publish a clear plan for further opening of the border.

 

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Starting to feel we are a lock for L4, for a clear period of two weeks, with Level 2 to follow if we can get the jabs up to 90%. It's crap on all fronts but at least there'd be a target and a carrot. 

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I'd say it's time for some light at the end of the tunnel for the whole of the country. 

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Well we didn’t get it today, things just got more confusing! I have been defending labour until now, but they really do keep on changing their minds. What happened to the gradual increase in freedom, retail opening up? Just seems to have disappeared, it was only two weeks ago they promised it. 

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It's becoming increasingly difficult to defend the indefensible.

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What we know so far:

- Maori make up a large proportion of gangs. This is a publically known and acknowledged statistic. Gangs have been one of the prime spreaders of Covid.

- Maori have the lowest vaccination stats of any ethnicity. Although this is concentrated amongst young people.

- we are being locked down until Maori vaccination rates increase. This has been publically flagged by Ardern and Bloomfield who are demanding 90% rates across every ethnic group, not just the public as a whole.

So the rest of us are being asked to twiddle our thumbs inside while Maori, who are the ones who both won't obey lockdowns and won't get vaccinated, finally decide to get around to it? The average NZ won't stomach this much longer.

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Hehehe. Covid needs to stick around or we will start focussing on other social metrics, like ICU capacity. 

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I'm feeling inspired to use all this lockdown time to write a browser plugin that automatically decodes Maorglish into actual English.

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That would be helpful. I forgot the worst part, which is that after all that, we're being accused of genocide!!!

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Just waiting now for the fully open date from Labour. Be it "Labour Weekend" or the 1st November latest, there is now no point in dragging this on any further. Plenty of time for everyone who intends getting vaccinated to get at least 1 jab. Lets do this.

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Okay so we have lockdown rules for the vaccinated who follow them.

And we have the unvaccinated, not following any rules and doing what they want.

How does that make sense ???

Open up the country and the percentage vaccinated will rise as the unvaccinated vaccinate themselves or die.

Do we have to make it any harder than it already is ?

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Since everyone else is isolating it's the safest time for the under 30's to party as everyone else will be isolating from them so they can't pass it on, it's not like they are at risk.  They won't get this opportunity once restrictions are lifted. </s>

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/briefing/covid-age-risk-infection-va…

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Ban the Unvaccinated from going to hospital and see the true color of their non vaccination beliefs.

 

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Jawohl Herr Fuhrer!

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The Unvaccinated with Covid will be begging to get inside the hospital door.

Charge them 100k to get in to start recouping the cost that the vaccinated are suffering weekly.

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And pray tell, how much will you charge those that dare to be vaccinated and also need hospital resources because they still get seriously ill? And if you say nothing, then let me ask you, what will you di if you face times like in Israel where the vast majority of hospitalistion recently has been by vaccinated people and still it strains their world class health system to its limits…?

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Do you have a humane response?

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If my maths is correct the death rate in Auckland in this outbreak of 2 people ( both had underlying heath issues and one aged 90 ! ) is .00001 % scary stuff !! 

Probably more deaths from choking !!

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Exactly.

Overkill (pun unintended)

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Your maths is not correct. It's 0.1% 

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Which, by the way, seems to be in line with other countries. Pre-vaccines with the original variant IFR was around 0.6% globally, possibly more like 1% for NZ with our older and more obese population. Small numbers but if you multiply them by a million cases you get 1000 dead for 0.1% IFR. But the issue is far less about deaths than hospital capacity. Did you see that UN person just left hospital after 76 days? And the most recent person who died was in hospital 60+ days. And when hospitals are full of covid patients they start cancelling non-emergency surgeries. Full hospitals have knock-on effects for everybody. Which is why we can't just "let 'er rip" no matter how fed up we all are with these restrictions. 

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There is though no guarantee that any level of vaccination, as a broad percentage, is going to prevent covid infections overloading hospital services. I would suggest that, that reality has finally dawned on the government, otherwise by now they would.have committed to a level of vaccination that they would confirm as getting the infection rate under control. There are two issues. Firstly there are going to be a good number of individuals that either can’t or won’t be vaccinated plus some with underlying conditions that the vaccine will not sufficiently protect. Secondly the hospital system remains inadequate, it can barely cope with normal day to day admissions. Therefore  that minority percentage could well be thought to remain sufficient to imperil hospital services. This was proven by the White Island tragedy, it has not been improved subsequently, not at all. The government has painted themselves into a corner.  In the next two weeks detected case numbers in Auckland, by their own admission, will continue to rise meaning the present status, on their strategy,  must remain. And importantly that doesn’t even include the undetected cases. It s more than likely that rise will continue on and on which is why there was a panicky reference to resuming level 4. If that transpires, then based on current government strategy Auckland remains locked up forever doesn’t it.

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That's all true but you don't really offer a path forward. Also, the higher the vax rate the better off our hospitals will be. NSW gives me great hope given how their case numbers have been dropping - which must be vaccine related. Having the 5-12s eligible will also help a lot keeping spread down. 

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Yes you are correct,I cannot  offer a path forward, because frankly,  I cannot see one. And yes agree the higher the vaccination rate, the more it will mitigate pressure on hospitals but, given the current quandary in Auckland, it is still apparent that hospital services will not be able to absorb the potential  load that will remain. Not exactly a pathway but surely hospitalisations could be reduced too by the early introductions of booster shots especially for the vulnerable, elderly and/or underlying respiratory conditions. And as well saliva testing, especially self testing,  freely available as per the entire UK, providing early detection and intervention if necessary. But unbelievably the government is dawdling along haphazardly on these with exactly the same laxity that saw vaccines arrive in NZ far too late.

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Foxy could the Government be in re-election strategy? The dawdling they are doing is because of the squeals of anguish coming from those in Auckland. and they don't want to be seen as too draconian so they will get re-elected. But if they had gone hard earlier, much firmer, this may well have been well over and done by now. Their vacillation  will doom them to failure and shoot them in the foot.

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Blimey are they capable of such machiavellian machinations? Hope not!  Think the story is approaching the final chapter, but it could have been much shorter. Elimination was necessary and it worked. It was though relied on for far too long. Delta was getting into full  stride in India as NZ opened up with Australia. Delta soon defeated elimination and ever since NZ has been fighting little more than a rearguard action. That stark reality is evidenced in such as the UK, Spain, Italy, Norway an on, and their “freedom day” scenarios. Like it or lump the same inevitability is arriving in NZ.  But where NZ differs is that it is becoming clear the government does not think, unlike those overseas comparisons, NZ’s hospitals can cope with even the residue of those that are unvaccinated. Thus the rolling over stalemate in Auckland as new infections continue to  arrive  faster than vaccination can reduce them. I therefore can only take them at their word,  that is, it is highly likely that covid could eventually reach any one of us, therefore I can only hope Mr Pfizer one day, provides the protection I will need. 

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Everyone knows, they should give a date to which they will open up, and to be vaccinated by that time. If you choose not to, than thats on you. If your vaccinated, there is no need to be afraid of an unvaccinated person. It is propoganda and fear mongering. This is not about your health, but control, they are buying time to impliment a monitoring system on the population.

Notice, the goal posts keep shifting to a target that will not be aquired. The more vaccinated we get, the more cases we get. There will never be a level 1 again

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bpmhopper - Well I have to say I have felt very uneasy with this lockdown.

Perhaps another agenda going on.

Put in 'arden comrade' into Youtube to put the heeby geebies up anyone !

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bpmhopper - Guess they already have a monitoring system with the Covid app on everyone's phone and bluetooth tracer !

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After all the talk of 'we can't do this week by week.... we get two more weeks at our current level. 

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GV 27

She explained perfectly why you got off LEVEL 4 and should be happy with the status Quo ! SCARRRY STUFF !!!!

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The level 4 threat was nothing but a clumsy straw man attempt, presented by a bunch of propaganda merchants. From overseas examples it should be obvious that even with very high percentage rates of full vaccination, there are still numbers of hospitalisations caused by Covid. Most nations, Norway, Spain, Denmark, Italy even the UK and their  much maligned NHS are coping. It is clear now that our government does not think NZ’s hospitals can cope. There can be no other explanation. By now modelling has had more than enough time to produce the requisite curve and if it was otherwise a specific timetable for opening up would have been detailed. The way it is going, on information given, or more importantly not given, there is nothing to say Auckland for instance, won’t need to stay as is even if vaccination hits 95%.

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And why is nobody in mainstream media, nor even here at interest asking the questions about prevention generally, or treatment to prevent hospitalisations? Come on David Chaston, Gareth Vaughan and team, are you really so biased as to just leaving it to a few commenters here to point to the obvious?

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Exactly, where are the boosters and where is the saliva testing. Both urgent and effective measures to reduce the likelihood of hospitalisation? Nothing happening! Working on the work! Another dropped ball. Replay of failure to implement vaccinations in time. Nincompoops, hardly, not even up to that standard.

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2 more weeks minimum at step 1...Ardern and co can f#$% off

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Now I'm really scared !

This has a bad feeling about it 

Never ending moving targets

Bet the SI island real happy !

Civil disorder ??

 

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A decent chunk of Auckland's economy will be a disaster zone within a month

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Just un installed my Covid tracer App or should I say Covid - tracker App

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We are , or even past the point of "please guys get 2x vaccinated so we dont over whelm  our lack of hospital staff and resources.. "

We have spend millions on adverts, propaganda, incentives,cultural intervention, list goes on, and now down to the hard cord stuck in the mud  'freedom' New Zealanders and religious zealots

It no longer has a race or cultural issue, its about the hard core New Zealanders holding back the economy, both household, businesses  and Country.

We are now or even a little past the point where a government hast to make one of those hard calls in the interests of the majority. There has been more than enough time, incentives, etc to have the whole of NZ double vacced. Time to make the call..

We are putting ICU and hospital beds  priority back to normal operations, treating those with heart lung, cancers etc and accidents etc

If you are not 2x vaccinated in the next 3 weeks, if get covid and need hospital assistance, then a hospital assistance will only be avaliable so long as doesnt take away staff, beds, icu etc of normal procedures. Not much different to casualties on a battlefeild .. keep in mind we have been told we are fighting a war.

"You can take a horse to water but cant make it drink"

Down side, we have yet to see if this government or leadership has the gumption to make a  hard call on any thing to date, especially where country and majority comes above a small minority of the population.

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Steptoe - Well said thankyou !

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Another thing that hasn't been talked about much is we are mid Spring, we don't have the same risks as mid winter. As one example, flu is not prevalent now and through the next 7 months.

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Great point Housemouse, what a perfect time to open up.

Well, open up to the Vaccinated.

Let Vaccinated go to the pictures, bars, clubs, KFC, McDonalds, as the "NEW LOCKDOWN" RULES.

As the current rules only affect the vaccinated rule abiders.

No point with Lockdown L3 when the people not vaccinated are ingnoring the rules anyway.

Welcome to the new communist socialist state.

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Steptoe, have you had a very close look at Israel in the last 1-2 weeks? Please do take the time and carefully look at what awaits you all with your 2 shots vaccinated and good to go blinkers! Until you all start asking yourself the question, what comes after booster 3 & 4… you will not begin to get closer to a real way forward.

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Too young to rem the hong kong flu..I got hit before we got the vaccine. And ever since then we have had free flu vaccines for nurses teachers over 60s and many others. A vaccine that now covers several updated strains. So what the difference between covid boosters , teninous , flu boosters?

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Sorry to disappoint you CT, but they've given a booster to the vulnerable in Israel with excellent success and the outbreak is over

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-virologist-says-delta-defeated-predic…

And in case you aren't aware, most vaccines need 3 shots and quite a few need boosters on top.

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Will the Freedom protests grow strongly in number now? 

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Yep, add 1 

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The 90% target rate is a furphy. The real number is what percentage of Maori and Pacific Islanders being left unvaccinated is acceptable?  Currently the Maori vaccination rate is 44% and not looking to hit 90% any time soon, if ever.  So Jacinda has to decide how many Maori deaths she wants on her hands when she unleashes covid on the country.  So whatever that politically acceptable number is, is what will determine when and how the rest of us get back to living a normal life.

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NO, you have fallen for the trap, sorry.

It is the Maori vaccination rate for over 45,

COVID does not kill under 45's except in very rare situations.

Its not a health issue, as you say, its a political issue, and achieving the highest percentage vaccinated as one more tick for the United Nations.

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In August and September Covid was the leading cause of death for the age group 35 - 44 in the USA.

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/covid19-and-other-leading-cau…

 

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Yes thanks, have been following Israel on that too. But for the life of me, I cannot understand why our government is dilly dallying around about getting boosters on board and available. This is a replay of the failure to procure vaccines sufficiently early. Are they then incapable of learning anything from their own mistakes? Must be.

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Italy leads the way on vaccine mandates.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-vaccination-mandate-w…

Main points: 

Need to be vaccinated and you get a passport (Green Pass) to work, and attend restaurants, bars etc.

BUT a Green Pass can also be obtained with a negative coronavirus test, workers who go that route would need to be retested every 48 hours which the article says is a daunting impracticality but the Italian government believes the system can cope. 

The system is only until the end of the year but could be extended.

AND THE IRONY IS:

Italy, a once Fascist country, offers more alternatives ie Vaccinate or continual testing than what we are doing in NZ ie Vaccinate or lose your job.

 

 

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So here are the Italians, who had had far more experience living, or should I say dying, with Covid leading the way, yet in NZ we are a one-trick pony, and can't learn anything from others.

A Pass could be given for:

1) The fully Vaccinated, or

2) Having caught Covid and have natural immunity, or

3) Those that are neither but can show a current negative covid test.

And has a review date, and once enough are either vaccinated or have natural immunity, then no pass should be required. That of course is assuming that the vaccinated are truly protected at least enough to reduce effects especially hospitalization, and cannot reinfect others enough to negate the benefit.

 

 

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Yes and no talk about that today either. 2 weeks ago they were going to gradually increase freedoms and gets kids back to school for the new term, then the week after it was no more freedoms this week and no school wait for next week, and now it is no more freedoms for at least two weeks and we still haven’t decided about school, but if you wait until Wednesday and Friday we will give you some more disappointing news, but consider yourself lucky you didn’t go to level 4 (which was a ridiculous possibility just to defend no actions). 

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Are the vaccinated not going to catch COVID?

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Auckland Auckland Auckland Auckland Auckland Auckland Auckland Auckland Auckland ditto ditto ditto....everyone does know this includes most of the Waikato and down through the King Country?

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My kids are really struggling with this now. It is taking a huge toll on our young people. We must open up fully in a maximum of 5 weeks. 3 weeks for second doses, 2 weeks for these to give immunity. I would rather risk covid than live life like this.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/oct/18/psychosis-cases-soar-in-england-as-pandemic-hits-mental-health

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