ASB pushes up a key fixed mortgage rate to a 15 year high

Personal Finance / analysis

July kicks off with a sharp hike by ASB to its one year fixed mortgage rate, taking it to its highest since late 2008. Will rivals follow?

[updated]

3rd Jul 23, 10:25am by David Chaston

Image sourced from Shutterstock.com

For home loan borrowers hoping weak demand and ultra-competitiveness among banks would see banks cutting rates to win market share, Monday's rate hike by ASB will be disappointing.

ASB is following wholesale rates up and raising its fixed rate card for all rates from six months to two years. These increases take them to the highest in the market.

ASB's new one year rate is now 7.25%, up 20 basis points and still the only bank with a one year rate above 7%.

You have to go back to December 2008 to find a higher one year rate from any main bank. Back then rates were falling fast but they weren't inverted like they are today.

ASB's new two year rate is now 6.79% and also up 20 basis points.

ASB is often the first mover higher, signaling to other banks that it is time to raise home loan rates. In this environment, raising rates comes with added market share risks, but they have moved up anyway. Don't be surprised if others follow over the next week.

Wholesale rates have been moving up as the swap rate charts below show. But a 20 basis points hike does seem outsized for the one year term.

ASB's new one year rate is now 36 basis points higher than Kiwibank, 26 basis points higher than its Aussie bank rivals, and 85 basis points higher than Heartland Bank's market-leading rate. (The one to five year inversion is now a substantial 96 basis points).

ASB's new two year rate is now 30 basis points higher than ANZ, 20 basis points higher than BNZ, Kiwibank and Westpac, and 59 basis points higher than Heartland's market-leading rate. (The one to two year inversion is also unusual at 46 basis points, but that isn't dissimilar to the 40/50 basis points at some other banks).

Update I: ASB has increased its term deposit rates at the same time, basically to levels of their main rivals.

Update II: Kiwibank has also raised some rates now too, which are set out in the table below.

Obviously you should negotiate and shop around. Most banks will discount their carded rates if you have strong financials. You shouldn't need them but if you are uncomfortable negotiating, a broker can often be helpful. But be aware some brokers won't offer you the best over the whole market, only the banks they have approved connections to in their "lending panel." And clearly bank mobile managers are there to pitch their company's ownn product.

One useful way to make sense of the changed home loan rates is to use our full-function mortgage calculator which is also below. (Term deposit rates can be assessed using this calculator).

And if you already have a fixed term mortgage that is not up for renewal at this time, our break fee calculator may help you assess your options. But break fees should be minimal in a rising market.

Here is the updated snapshot of the lowest advertised fixed-term mortgage rates on offer from the key retail banks at the moment.

Fixed, below 80% LVR	6 mths	1 yr	18 mth	2 yrs	3 yrs	4 yrs	5 yrs
as at July 3, 2023	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

ANZ	6.99	6.99	6.75	6.49	6.29	7.19	7.09
	7.25 +0.16	7.25 +0.20	6.95 +0.20	6.79 +0.20	6.49	6.39	6.29
	7.09	6.99	6.75	6.59	6.29	6.29	6.29
	7.15 +0.16	6.89		6.59 +0.10	6.29	6.15	6.29 +0.30
	7.09	6.99	6.75	6.59	6.29	6.19	5.99

Bank of China		6.79	6.59	6.39	6.09	6.09	6.09
China Construction Bank	6.76	6.70	6.59	6.55	6.40	6.40	6.40
Co-operative Bank [*FHB special]	6.79	6.55*	6.59	6.45	6.29	6.29	6.29
Heartland Bank		6.40	6.45	6.20	5.95
HSBC	7.09
ICBC	6.75	6.59	6.49	6.29	6.09	6.09	6.09
	6.99	6.99	6.84	6.59	6.29	6.59	6.69
	6.99	6.99	6.75	6.49	6.39	6.29	6.29

Fixed mortgage rates

Select chart tabs

Source: interest.co.nz

Source:

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA

Comprehensive Mortgage Calculator

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101 Comments

by Anon_82 | 3rd Jul 23, 10:42am 1688337754

*Insert gleeful smugness from over active commenter here*

by Justa comment | 3rd Jul 23, 10:43am 1688337834

And chunky TD rises at the long end too, following news the US intends to raise 2 more times this year, and the recent strong rises to the 5 and 10 yr swaps.

by fortunr | 3rd Jul 23, 10:51am 1688338319

Yes, very nice chunky TD rises by ASB, especially on the 2 years to 5 years terms. Nice rises of the 5 years swaps too, which means that the markets now predict that rates will stay higher for longer. Good news for the savers indeed, with rates getting closer to the current inflation level. It is just question of a couple of weeks before the other banks will follow suit.

by Zwifter | 3rd Jul 23, 11:21am 1688340095

Great news for savers, finally paying some decent returns. What a huge difference going from 0.5% to 6%.

by Eschaton | 3rd Jul 23, 12:16pm 1688343380

Still lower than inflation.

by HGWR | 3rd Jul 23, 12:46pm 1688345201

And it's taxed, so if you have a job you are probably only making 4%, I.e. barely half inflation.

by interesting1234 | 3rd Jul 23, 2:21pm 1688350908

True, but it is literally money for nothing

by Zwifter | 3rd Jul 23, 5:59pm 1688363990

Yep and that's what people here cannot see.

by Escander | 4th Jul 23, 5:19pm 1688447999

Technically not nothing, it is an unsecured loan you are making to the bank.

Though unlikely, they could make some really bad investments (mortgage lending in a downward spiraling market? :-) ) and give you balance a haircut

by Mystery | 3rd Jul 23, 1:40pm 1688348443

'Still lower than inflation.'

For those who are saving for a deposit on a house it doesn't matter if interest rates on savings are lower than inflation. All that matters is that they are saving MUCH faster than house values can keep up with. The proverbial "turtle" is finally beating the "Hare" in this race (or at least, has been for about a year now)

by Zwifter | 3rd Jul 23, 2:11pm 1688350305

Doesn't matter in my financial situation, inflation is just not impacting me the way its hitting most people.

by interesting1234 | 3rd Jul 23, 2:22pm 1688350930

Is humble your middle name?

by Zwifter | 4th Jul 23, 8:33am 1688416414

No its Richard but you can just call me "Rich"

by tulips | 3rd Jul 23, 10:42am 1688337756

I thought Tony promised interest rates had already peaked?

by Justa comment | 3rd Jul 23, 10:45am 1688337923

Yes, TA & AC & Squirrel wrong yet again.

by Hawkes Bay | 3rd Jul 23, 11:37am 1688341028

But The Prophet remains perfectly on track.

Check out the standard rates for standard people from Kiwibank.

https://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing

10% Interest Rates This Year, Guaranteed !

by HouseMouse | 3rd Jul 23, 11:38am 1688341092

Developing quite a track record of wrongness aren’t they

by JimboJones | 3rd Jul 23, 11:40am 1688341236

After 14 years of rightness (when almost all of us were wrong).

by HouseMouse | 3rd Jul 23, 12:13pm 1688343213

Speak for yourself

by printer8 | 3rd Jul 23, 12:27pm 1688344073

Not quite as bad as you HouseMouse:

by HouseMouse | 16th Feb 22, 6:19pm

Wouldn't touch the 3 year with a barge pole. Mortgage rates will be back in the 2-3% range within 2 years.

Ouch, that was a bad call on your big mortgage.

Cheers.

by HouseMouse | 3rd Jul 23, 1:13pm 1688346815

I may be wrong sometimes but at least I don’t tell blatant lies like your recent fib, lol 😂😂😂😂

Absolute Shocker!

by Zwifter | 3rd Jul 23, 1:57pm 1688349473

That was an epically bad call HM, My partner went 3 years and I told her to go 5 years. Unfortunately that decision is going to cost her thousands. If anyone went 1 to 2 years with a big mortgage they are now in very serious trouble.

by printer8 | 3rd Jul 23, 2:38pm 1688351930

"I may be wrong some times." What????

Housemouse, you would rock up to the Ballinger Belt (the NZRA national rifle target shooting championships) with a shotgun, slag-off all the experts ad nauseam, and loudmouth when by chance one of your pellets actually got anywhere near the target.

Cheers

by Nzdan | 3rd Jul 23, 2:57pm 1688353064

😂

by Macawsley | 3rd Jul 23, 11:46am 1688341561

yep, but it won't stop Nz's largest Newspaper and commercial radio network from amplifying their BS

NZME is very generous with Ashley Church's 'wisdom'

by Hahashishi | 6th Jul 23, 9:46am 1688593600

I recently listened to a Squirrel podcast to give it a try. Rather underwhelming given their positions. Felt like I was at the pub with some guys who knew a bit about the property market. And didn't know how to construct a concise and directed conversation...

by Dgm | 3rd Jul 23, 11:25am 1688340319

As I said.. spruikers should be classified as criminals, for consistently lying....

by Hummy | 3rd Jul 23, 9:40pm 1688377203

I lost it with Tony when he was forecasting a 2,5$ milk solid payout and we ended with a 5$. Wayback. Weather forecasting got much better, but economist's looking in future are to tight to where their money is coming from.

by Contrarian | 4th Jul 23, 8:44pm 1688460284

T&C apply.

by thebookkeeper | 3rd Jul 23, 10:42am 1688337776

I spy someone will come on and say:

"10% interest rates this year. Guaranteed!"

by Hawkes Bay | 3rd Jul 23, 11:38am 1688341127

I Agree !

by Zwifter | 3rd Jul 23, 2:14pm 1688350467

Not 10% but certainly 8% is a high possibility.

by Hawkes Bay | 3rd Jul 23, 4:12pm 1688357542

I see Kiwibank standard rates are already there. Not to mention all the floating rates from the mainstreamers.

https://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing

A bit late to the game Zwifter.

by Hawkes Bay | 3rd Jul 23, 5:44pm 1688363074

It's a sad day when you have to go to the MSM for an article that says what the standard rate is .

"Kiwibank’s six-month standard rate is 8.15% compared to its 7.15% special rate."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132468635/asb-and-kiwibank-lift-key-fi…

10% Interest Rates This Year, Guaranteed !

by starrider | 4th Jul 23, 10:12am 1688422349

Any more scrolls knocking about?

by SND | 3rd Jul 23, 11:07am 1688339266

One should always ask themself why such a rise? Maintain profits? Expected OCR rise? Or just pushing customers to go longer when fixing/refixing?

by SND | 3rd Jul 23, 11:14am 1688339679

I should add, by pushing customers to fix for longer, making long term more appealing compared to 1 or 2 years, that would signal they expect the OCR to be cut within that time frame (restoring comfortable margins in 2/3 year time).

by huttman | 3rd Jul 23, 11:18am 1688339898

Interesting.

my prediction is as early as March before OCR starts dropping.

by Zwifter | 3rd Jul 23, 12:09pm 1688342970

What year ? will not be 2024, this is going to last 12 months at least, still no signs of inflation dropping significantly.

by huttman | 3rd Jul 23, 2:55pm 1688352936

even if it lasts 12 months, which is likely, it'll be May 2024.

by DrGrump | 3rd Jul 23, 1:36pm 1688348176

Why would they cut so soon? And even if they do it would be small, no? Covid era rate cuts and accommodative policy are extremely unlikely to happen again. So is the resulting property pump.

by bw | 3rd Jul 23, 11:34am 1688340874

So not only are those who fix-short taking the gamble that lower longer rates will occur in 2/3 years time, but it will become a financial calculation for them, along the lines of "Where is my Break-Even point if I pay more for 2/3 years than I could have?". What don't financial markets like? Uncertainty. So why would retail customers like it by not fixing-long, especially if it's cheaper at face value to do so, by removing it?

None of us know 'what's going to happen' but a quick watch of the TV shows that the risk is a lot higher that something nasty is going to happen, than not.

by JimboJones | 3rd Jul 23, 11:35am 1688340942

"the risk look a lot higher that something nasty is going to happen" - depends which nasty happens. Many nasty scenarios will result in much lower interest rates.

by M0ralHazard | 3rd Jul 23, 12:51pm 1688345479

That's what I'm picking. All these "highest since 2008" mentions seem ominous to me. I feel like the only question is "when?" something goes wrong. It could be later this year. or it could be in another two, but these higher interest rates are going to break something and then they are going to pull out the old playbook again and drop the interest rates back down.

by Macawsley | 3rd Jul 23, 1:01pm 1688346061

The OCR's rapid rise has given RBNZ room to move in the other direction - if / when required .

by interesting1234 | 3rd Jul 23, 2:27pm 1688351274

Remember these sorts of catastrophe headlines weigh on the countries psyche and will have at least some influence, especially when repeated over a period of time. This in turn will cause people to be more risk averse and save more which in turn will prevent further increases in inflation or start the decline if significant enough.

For those I know who were head in the sand late last year, all have buckled the purse strings down now after doing some simple math around costs. Most aren't talking the doom and gloom, it is now turning to how can we live a good life n the cheap. Pot lucks, hikes, camping trips planning for summer, and more and more people asking me how to homebrew to save paying IRD any more tax than they already are.

by K.W. | 3rd Jul 23, 1:01pm 1688346087

The modelling is similar to how big telcos operate. There is a point where raising prices on existing customers is more profitable than maintaining or cutting prices to attract new customers. This is because of the inertia effect (customers simply dont move providers). With the banks, customers are now locked in to their current bank because they no longer meet the new servicing requirements to refinance elsewhere, and now have a lower LVR to boot. So it makes sense for banks to exploit their current customer base with higher prices, than to try and attract a small number of new customers. Forcing them into longer terms as well is good for business, so they cant refinance later should interest rates drop.

by MisterB | 3rd Jul 23, 3:27pm 1688354868

Fixed rates are largely driven by swap rates, which the banks use to hedge these transactions. Swap rates relative to retail rates have shot up at a much faster rate.

by UnconventionalView | 3rd Jul 23, 11:04am 1688339075

I hope the bottom is near for experts who have dug themselves a hole in the ground by being consistently incorrect so many times.

by huttman | 3rd Jul 23, 11:09am 1688339391

Terrain! Terrain! Pulls up!

by Zwifter | 3rd Jul 23, 11:18am 1688339931

Inching towards the predicted 6% by Christmas, ASB 12 month TD now at 5.85%, basically its already there.

by Dgm | 3rd Jul 23, 11:23am 1688340199

I have sounding the alarms...rates will keep rising

by NZGecko | 3rd Jul 23, 11:47am 1688341649

ANOTHER punch in the Gnuts for Tone the Comb. His calls have been total RUBBISH!!

His (+ AC and the entire Onespoof Cabal) incessant talk OF "BOTTOM is in", Buy now, Beee quick.

BAD, bad, bad, advice. Where is the FMA,?? Regulators ????

This "bottom is in" talk actually means a massive mesh sized sieve, where everything falls through and your Gnuts get smashed.

When is Tony hanging up his "independent economist" gig/books and calling it quits. I hear they need bus drivers Tony!

by JimboJones | 3rd Jul 23, 11:33am 1688340796

Although if your logic goes "Housing is always a great investment" you have been much more correct over the last 15 years than "Housing is overvalued and going to crash soon". I doubt anyone has predicted the housing market correctly using actual logic.

by Zwifter | 3rd Jul 23, 11:42am 1688341338

Exactly anyone who have been in the market now for 15 years has 100% made the right decision, housing has been a great investment. As it terns out his outlook has been right 90% of the time and has only finally fallen over in the last 2 years.

by Chaosinflesh | 3rd Jul 23, 12:06pm 1688342783

Hindsight has shown the vested were very keen on their interventions to keep it going for as long as they could. I mean, who in their right mind would've predicted the OCR would be dropped all the way down to 0.25? Or LVR removed during the same period? Those with the authority to make said decisions have shown a terrible disdain for the future, and have revealed whatever modelling they used deficient - (from a control theory perspective) having pushed us well into unstable territory, from which we can expect sharp over-correction.

All this could've been avoided by simply keeping house prices inc. land in the CPI.

Interestingly, I found an article from the RBNZ 1988 arguing that because housing was rising so fast in 1987, it should be removed just like the US under Reagan. Oddly, money supply from expanding market caps wasn't examined in the paper - where housing was probably affected by the availability of cash from the expanding cap caused by the share-market bubble and not the other way around like it is now. All in all, was a fairly myopic view from the economists involved. The end result was the recommendation to move to equivalent rent, and classify land as an investment, so that it wouldn't be measured in the control variable!

by Zwifter | 3rd Jul 23, 11:37am 1688341074

Not sure why you keep banging on about Tony, I don't even read his stuff and if I really thought it was rubbish I just wouldn't read it. The guys entitled to his opinions and predictions just like everyone else is, ultimately you are responsible for your own financial moves. Personally I think we are pretty much at market bottom as well, depends on what area you live in of course, you only tend to focus only what you can see driving around in terms of sold signs.

by HouseMouse | 3rd Jul 23, 11:41am 1688341299

Personally my string dislike of the guy stems from his mocking attitude to FHBs when he was at BNZ. A disgrace

by tomjones_04 | 3rd Jul 23, 12:47pm 1688345260

And to label yourself independent??! He knows who butters his bread and is prepared to make himself a laughing stock for said buttering. It's all as suspicious as those transparent locks.

by HughJorgan | 3rd Jul 23, 1:32pm 1688347931

FYI - TA has 37,000 followers on LinkedIn. More than any of us here! Crazy given what he preachers.

by Averageman | 3rd Jul 23, 1:41pm 1688348504

Indeed. I used to like his data driven comment was the bubble boomed, but as it deflates, he has lost all credibility. Sampling ticket clippers (agents and brokers) and investors is cleary a group squed by their own bias...."it always goes up young man"...they ain't making anymore" etc.

As such that sample set is hardly "independent".

by NZGecko | 3rd Jul 23, 2:08pm 1688350137

Yes TA is always sampling the REA toads /Taleb Turkeys and they all tell him: " this guy feeds us every day and we get fatter and happier, he will never stop this gravy train of more more food every day"

Tones and all similar travelers/bank economists are pitifull at their proclamations. Awful at the jobs.

by Justa comment | 3rd Jul 23, 2:08pm 1688350113

They follow because he says what they want to hear (like many so called journalists these days, and to satisfy his employer.

by Chaosinflesh | 3rd Jul 23, 11:31am 1688340707

Looking at the 2year charts, have to go back to 2004 to see the last time floating rates raised to this level - and prior to the GFC, the fixed rate only dipped below current level once (in the 20-year time-frame visible on interest's charts).

by Toye | 3rd Jul 23, 11:59am 1688342381

Everything is fine.

by Chairman Moa | 3rd Jul 23, 12:08pm 1688342896

Ran into an old work colleague on the weekend. He promised his wife their major wedding anniversary with a 6-week holiday in south of France and Spain. With the mortgage bite, they have to settle for a 2-week sun of Gold Coast… Reality is biting hard! We had a nice lunch anyway !

by JimboJones | 3rd Jul 23, 12:28pm 1688344138

I never understood how people can throw money away like that when they have debt. It must be a fair amount of debt if the interest rates increases have bitten.

by Averageman | 3rd Jul 23, 12:43pm 1688345016

Or a stack of non performing rentals.

by Chairman Moa | 3rd Jul 23, 12:47pm 1688345252

Don't know how much mortgage they got but was told it's now $1800 more in a month! must be a bloody big house in Kelburn!

by Pa1nter | 3rd Jul 23, 12:49pm 1688345362

Yeah it also ignores the reality that international travel in 2023 is significantly more expensive than in 2019 and earlier.

by Chairman Moa | 3rd Jul 23, 2:18pm 1688350738

Did a few trips this year and prices have almost back to normal. Syd-London is now $1600 returns

by interesting1234 | 3rd Jul 23, 2:30pm 1688351433

Booked Auckland to London for just over $900 the other week, pretty good considering the cheapest I've seen pre covid was just over $800

by Albert2020 | 3rd Jul 23, 2:50pm 1688352613

How you gonna get back?

by interesting1234 | 4th Jul 23, 8:27am 1688416021

Via SE Asia $500 from Cambodia to AKL, too easy.

by dumbthoughts | 3rd Jul 23, 1:25pm 1688347517

To be fair, I'd pick the GC over France at the moment (until these protests quieten down) ... and that's coming from an ardent Francophile who has been there numerous times and loves the place. Every cloud, and all that.

by Eschaton | 3rd Jul 23, 12:16pm 1688343414

Padding those collosal profits.

by Averageman | 3rd Jul 23, 12:50pm 1688345418

Rates higher for longer. Asset prices......not.

by kwbrn | 3rd Jul 23, 1:00pm 1688346049

Getting back to their historic norm. 8%.

by Yvil | 3rd Jul 23, 1:39pm 1688348364

Finally a rate over 7%, although anyone can get a rates starting with a 6 with a bit of negotiation. Who remembers the clown 🤡 who "guaranteed" 7% by the end of last year. I think he used to say 10% guaranteed in 2023 😂. It just goes to show how some people have no clue!

by Hawkes Bay | 3rd Jul 23, 4:29pm 1688358593

So Yvil how does this comment of yours from last year fit into your comment today ??????????????????????????

by Yvil | 15th Nov 22, 4:43pm

Well you did very well predicting 7% interest rates by December 2022, when most of us, me included, didn't believe it, so well done on this prediction!

I have noticed how unstable and rattled you have become. But this continual manipulation to control the narrative is unacceptable .

The Prophet said 7% Interest Rates This Year, Guaranteed ! (2022) - Prophecy Confirmed.

10% Interest Rates This Year, Guaranteed ! (2023) To Be Confirmed.

It is important for us to watch the Vile meter. Or should I say the Yvil meter ?

by Chairman Moa | 3rd Jul 23, 4:48pm 1688359713

Booommmmm.. well done HB.

by Hawkes Bay | 3rd Jul 23, 5:05pm 1688360729

Yes I have been watching a lot of lies from Yvil lately .

But as The Prophet would always say - What the Vested Interest Brigade say, Believe The Opposite !

The Yvile meter is our new Measurement Device. And it seems to be getting more Vile by the week.

by Yvil | 3rd Jul 23, 1:28pm 1688347682

Some who have been hoping for/counting on a reduction in interest rates by the second half of 2023, may have to rethink what to do with properties. This is going to put more downward pressure on house prices…

by Averageman | 3rd Jul 23, 1:35pm 1688348113

Agreed. Those hanging for brightline flipper tax avoidance will likely find themselves wishing they had bailed earlier and paid some tax. How many sales does it take to lower the algorithms in a location...?

by huttman | 3rd Jul 23, 1:52pm 1688349163

and good luck to the new builds. you are going to find it's much cheaper to buy existing properties than building new, and well, house shortage yet again.

by ikimpaul | 3rd Jul 23, 1:44pm 1688348678

Noticing a number of contradictory statements by economists out there

On one hand a number are saying there are green shoots in the housing market as we are in a recession and this will force interest rates down and when that happens housing will bounce back

Then other economists stating that the recession is already over and life will return to normal before we know it - obviously of this is the case then there will be no reduction in interest rates and no housing bounce back.

I'm not going to make any predictions myself, other than to say

1. Interest rates will only fall when inflation enters or gets close to the 1-3% band, anything over 4% and there will be no interest rate reduction.

2. In 2008 interest rates fell from 8.25% to 2.5% - housing prices fell 10% and it took until 2012 for house prices to see any growth - almost 4 years

3. The increase in house prices in 2012 - co-incided with unemployment falling from 6.75% following the GFC to under 6.00%. People only felt certain to buy houses when they felt secure in their employment. Hence any uncertainty in employment across NZ is likely to result in house prices being low for longer.

by Averageman | 3rd Jul 23, 2:09pm 1688350194

Is anyone seeing any sign of inflation slowing...?

by Justa comment | 3rd Jul 23, 7:30pm 1688369447

Not me

by Juzz | 3rd Jul 23, 10:35pm 1688380538

Historic pay equity for nurses, surely that will be inflationary

https://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/article/undoctored/government-makes-historic…

by Nifty1 | 3rd Jul 23, 2:20pm 1688350846

You don't like the 1 or 2 year rate, fix for 3,4 & 5 year rates... People acting like this increase is putting the nail coffin for borrowers when longer term rates haven't moved. There's options and as mentioned in the article often advertised rates is much higher than the discount you can get if you ask or are upfront offered...

by Hummy | 3rd Jul 23, 10:02pm 1688378550

Some are not in position to bargain anymore.

by Hummy | 3rd Jul 23, 10:07pm 1688378844

Kindness disappeared just after summer holidays.

by MisterB | 3rd Jul 23, 4:46pm 1688359614

"You have to go back to December 2008 to find a higher one year rate from any main bank. Back then rates were falling fast but they weren't inverted like they are today."

If I am reading your swap rates chart right, you have to go back to November 2008 to see them this high - at a time when one year rates were north of 8%. That tells me we have some room to still move upwards? (on TD and Home Loans)

by Yvil | 3rd Jul 23, 3:55pm 1688356542

I think you're confusing swap rates with interest rates. Also neither has been over or close to 8% in November last year!

by Hawkes Bay | 3rd Jul 23, 4:42pm 1688359372

You really do need to stop lying to everyone Yvil.

article from November last year.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/118562/anz-first-bank-raise…

by MisterB | 3rd Jul 23, 4:46pm 1688359585

I meant November 2008. In reference to his comment. Will edit for clarity. The fact is, interest rates can still move up a lot, all thing equal (priced to swaps as they always have been).

by Hummy | 3rd Jul 23, 10:09pm 1688378970

Farm loans are past that 8%.

by No Pants | 3rd Jul 23, 5:04pm 1688360640

Oligopolies in action.

ASB has just gone through financial year end and is looking at a hard to achieve plan for 2024. It needs to try and manage its historically high NII margin and the risk is falling wholesale rates. All banks took big margins on savings accounts on the way that they have to give up on the way down.

To hit the profit numbers the game now shifts back to trying to milk borrower margins. Of course in a market with low volumes everyone will follow them.

The challenge is in calling it out and with a commerce commission study underway does the industry really need to be showing oligopoly behaviour in action!

This is not about the long-end rates. That's a useful distraction. Inflation will be volatile for a while up and down at the long-end untli we are clearly in full recession mode.

by bw | 3rd Jul 23, 6:21pm 1688365307

What do you reckon the Cost of Funds will be to all lenders refinancing their liabilities books if New Zealand has a Credit Rating downgrade?

Let's be honest, our national accounts are nothing to get too excited about. In fact, given all the unexpected natural calamity that we have witnessed, just the opposite - and getting worse.

by hotwired | 3rd Jul 23, 8:36pm 1688373381

70000 visiting Queenstown and half million flights during the July school holidays. NZ is a country of 2 halves.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 4th Jul 23, 1:08pm 1688432892

About time someone told the RBNZ this!