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Westpac expects household debt levels to keep increasing but falling interest rates will keep repayments affordable for the time being

Westpac expects household debt levels to keep increasing but falling interest rates will keep repayments affordable for the time being

Westpac Bank's economists expect house prices to rise by 8% next year and mortgage debt levels to increase with further interest rate cuts.

In the bank's latest Economic Bulletin, Westpac Senior Economist Satish Ranchhod said households' financial liabilities rose by just 0.4% in the lockdown-affected second quarter of this year, compared to quarterly rises of about 1.6% previously.

Household debt is still at a record high, equivalent to 164% of household income.

However, low interest rates mean households' ability to service that debt is the most manageable it's been in decades.

"Reductions in interest rates mean the proportion of households' incomes spent on debt servicing has fallen to just 6.9%," the report said.

"That's down from 7.1% at the start of the year and the lowest level in at least two decades.

"We expect the RBNZ will cut the Official Cash Rate to -0.50% in April 2021 and that the cash rate will stay low for an extended period.

"That will help to keep households' debt servicing requirements at low levels."

Ranchhod said even lower interest rates were likely to push up house prices and debt levels further.

"The housing market has cooled in the wake of COVID-19.

"However, with mortgage rates at low levels, the current softness is likely to give way to a period of increased turnover, with house prices set to rise by 8% in 2021, and a strengthening housing market usually means more debt.

"For owner-occupiers, low mortgage rates mean debt servicing is now more affordable.

"Similarly, for investors the combination of low interest rates and the removal of loan-to-valuation restrictions means that the purchase of rental properties is looking much more attractive than leaving money in the bank," he said.

However Ranchhod also sounded a warning about the high debt levels.

"Over a longer timeframe, New Zealanders high debt levels could prove problematic," he said.

"Although we expect interest rates to remain low for an extended period, in the future we expect in interest rates will rise again.

"When they do, many borrowers will find their debt servicing requirements ratcheting up and for highly indebted borrowers, such increases could be marked."

You can read Westpac's full Economic Bulletin here.

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133 Comments

21
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This year we have seen bank economists predictions go from plus 7% to flat, then negitive 7% and now back up to an 8% increase.
Ozzy house prices predicted to drop by upto 40% and their economy seems to be in better shape than ours (export wise).
I'm still calling a drop of at least 25%.

Westpac's prediction above is for 2021, not this year.
By when do you see your prediction of "at least 25% drop in value" happen Kezza?

15
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Over the next three years.
I don't see how we can take such a major hit export wise and come out of this smiling. The pain will start after the US election.
The only way we get an increase in house prices is by inflation. We'll be paying $8 for a two liter of milk.
Perhaps what they are saying in a round about way is we are going to get some hefty inflation.

Agree. Perfect case for Bitcoin.

And or PM's.

"over the next 3 years" that's too vague to be helpful to anyone Kezza

19
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I'll jump on the blower and give Powell shout to see if he'll give me a heads up on how much longer he can keep the US economy shambles going and get back to you.

12
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Powell is asleep, Orr is at lunch and Jacinda said don't stress I've got this.

I think that's an appropriate timeframe with so much uncertainty.
I always said that the s$%% will hit the fan in 2021 or 2022, and I stand by that.
I said that it will be caused by a financial crisis. Covid is not a financial crisis, but could contribute strongly to one.

Inflation has been helping to drive house prices... Monetary inflation.
To get a 25% price drop we might need some monetary deflation. ... Eg bad loans, mortgagee sales etc.
Hard to see that happening any time soon.
Deficit govt spending has become the new fashion ( who would have thought ? ).. and govts are becoming far more involved in supporting economies.
As far as I can see.. they will continue.
The FIRE economy has become disconnected , somewhat, from the beating heart, that is the productive economy.. in my view

Bank predictions sure are all over the place. Aussie lead NZ on the way up b about 6-12 months. Will be interesting to see if that trend occurs in reverse.

You're right, I can't see how NZ are going to pull off a big house price rise when most of our banks are under Ozzy and Chinese control. We're not that far off Ozzy rates at the moment and we'll probably be down in the <1% mortgage rate bracket in another few months. So what happens then?
We can't keep relying on falling mortgage rates to prop up mid to lower range house prices.

Check out the parabolic price moves in the likes of tesla.
Check out some of the big bubble manias in history.
Mkts can move to truly insane levels.

Doesn't even need debt.. if enuf investors lose confidence in money as a store of value they can easily rotate money out of financial assets ( savings) and into harder assets.
Isn't there $10 trillion out there earning -ve interest rates.?
If u had a $million on term deposit , what interest rate would make u decide to pull it out and buy an investment property??
World is awash in money and debt has never been cheaper ??
Just my view ..

Check out the parabolic price moves in the likes of tesla.
Check out some of the big bubble manias in history.
Mkts can move to truly insane levels.

Doesn't even need debt.. if enuf investors lose confidence in money as a store of value they can easily rotate money out of financial assets ( savings) and into harder assets.
Isn't there $10 trillion out there earning -ve interest rates.?
If u had a $million on term deposit , what interest rate would make u decide to pull it out and buy an investment property??
World is awash in money and debt has never been cheaper ??
Just my view ..

Check out the parabolic price moves in the likes of tesla.......

And?

Don't expect the NZ housing market to be the next big thing after Tesla, Amazon, Google, and Apple.

Doesn't matter how much money can be printed.

And... Nz housing mkt could become the bubble u think it already is.

Point I was making about tesla, google etc al , is that prices can reach beyond what seem like ridiculous levels.

Of course it matters how much money is printed. Very loose monetary conditions ,plus irrational exuberance, drives mkt booms into bubbles that crash.

NZ house prices could easily go up 20% BUT it would be accompanied with the NZ$ falling the equivalent. That is how you inflate your way out of debt, it doesn't mean an Auckland house is all of a sudden worth 20% more than the equivalent in Sydney.

Yes there's no honour in being a Zimbabwe millionaire. But the property spruikers don't care for exchange rates. Just interest rates.

NZ is not Zimbabwe.

10
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Once upon a time Zimbabwe wasn't Zimbabwe

Ahhh, the "whiter, brighter Rhodesia"

Noooo, the wealth from productivity/trade not from central banking printing Zimbabwe. Don't be racist.

NZ house prices could easily go up 20% BUT it would be accompanied with the NZ$ falling the equivalent. That is how you inflate your way out of debt, it doesn't mean an Auckland house is all of a sudden worth 20% more than the equivalent in Sydney.

Meh. Most inflation (money creation) in NZ has been driven by retail banks. Show me all the specu-punters lining up to buy slum housing for $1 mio a piece. It's deluded.

JC.. what's deluded ? A bubble ? Irrational exuberance ?
Maybe slum houses will end up selling for $ million .
I'd say it's possible.

even my kids have given up on meh

I agree

Very interesting conversations about TESLA on the Grant Williams podcast. All is not as it seems!

The wealth transfers will be perpetuated as long as the reserve bank can push them, perhaps.

The wealth transfers will be perpetuated as long as the reserve bank can push them, perhaps.

The reserve bank is not interested at that at the moment. At the moment, the transfer of wealth is on pause. The money tree mechanism is on the blink despite what you may think. The money printing and QE is barely paying for the weekly groceries.

Kezza
Who is predicting Australian house prices by 40%????
If you are referring to the RBA then that your claim is utter rubbish. The RBA did stress tests - i.e. using a range of different scenarios - to see the effects of these on Australia banks.
The 40% was simply an extreme case test scenario and was quoted in a misleading newspaper article. For you to quote that gives you no credibility.
As a matter of interest RBNZ when estimating a 7% fall, did similar testings including a 40% worse case scenario, and Orr stated to suggest in anyway that it was likely would be irresponsible.

Settle down mate.
It's my guess. I don't see the economy locally / globally going well at all and that has consequences.
Jump in and have a crack if you want but I'm staying out.
There are more than a few put there who have a lack of faith in Labour or Nationals ability to handle what is coming.

kezza
Yes - simply a guess. No supporting rationale, and no criticism of Westpac team, their range of data or modelling.
Lets face it, your "guess" has as much rationale and as much credibility as to my guess that it is going to snow in Queen Street.

P8, did you even read the comment? The very next sentence after 'it's a guess' is the supporting rationale. If you disagree, that's fine - but it's silly to pretend there are no reasons being given when it is clear that there are.

al123
Wot? You call that a really deep and considered rationale.

No. But it's a forum comment. And there is a big difference between not giving any reasons at all (which was your accusation) and not giving a deep and considered rationale that you find convincing.

11
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Unlike the Westpac economist, I didn't have my boss ring me up and tell me to promote higher house prices.
You're getting a a bit carried away mate. I'm guessing you want the prices to keep on trucking, while I'm sitting back waiting for them to drop. I certinally won't be jumping in to support your agenda with my bucks until the water is less muddy. And I am more than certain that people who loose their jobs / have a reduced income won't be buying houses anytime soon.

kezza
You deserve to be criticised.
When you post comments like "Ozzy house prices predicted to drop by up to 40%" when there is neither a reliable forecast supporting that nor consensus on it - expect to be criticised. The article you posted in support didn't even seriously suggest that 40% was likely- it was just a passing comment as an extreme case.
Then there is the conspiracy theory "Unlike the Westpac economist, I didn't have my boss ring me up and tell me to promote higher house prices." I recall last year when Westpac was predicting 7% for the start of this year, and prior to Covid that was the case.
As for getting carried away - your wild comments indicate it ain't me.
Cheers

13
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Someones in a manic phase today.

Today?

Banks in Aussie are already asking for 30% deposits for more affluent suburbs...you think they know something we don’t?

Correct P8, it was a stress test and do you know why they don't bother running the +40% house price scenario? because it is not an event that leads to financial distress (unless you are looking to buy I guess). It's the equivalent of saying a car is unsafe because it crashed in a crash test simulation.

Anyone who picked up that number immediately identified themselves as having little understanding of banking.

With the current global issues, anything is possible.
The only country that seems to be doing well is China but how are they useing less power, bringing in less imports but exporting more????
We can put as much faith in the global economy figures as we put in CV19 infection statistics reporting.

Martin North has suggested in his modelling that house prices could fall by up To 35% should The unemployment rate increase over 10%. The RBA stated that their modelling based on a 40% drop in house prices was plausible. Aussie is seeing massive falls in property prices and corelogic are doing their best to hide this bad news data by simply not reporting accurate sales data. They are being reported and called out for their false and misleading data every week. Having said that there are some areas that are holding up very well as you would expect.

Kezza
"I'm still calling a drop of at least 25%."
In May you were predicting - sorry "guessing" as you put it - "30 to 50%".

21
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Westpac allowed to change their call several times but I'm not. Loud and clear.

In other words: "my predictions (maybe rather opinions) are worthless because I will change them any time I like"

16
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So the options are: make a prediction, but you are not allowed to update it if/when circumstances change; or any predictions made are worthless, because they may need to be updated if/when circumstances change?

I don't think you have a good grasp on what predictions are Yvil.

I love you too Al X

Predictions or forecasts should always be able to be updated depending on changing circumstances.
Tony Alexander originally said house price falls of 5-10%. He now seems to be saying minimal if any drops.

Who do you reckon has a better gauge on where the economy is going, you or Tony Alexander?

10
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In conventional terms, Tony of course. But I am not convinced that conventional economics has much value anymore. Or whether it really had any.

They don't call it the "dismal science" for nothing.

11
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Tony Alexander originally said house price falls of 5-10%. He now seems to be saying minimal if any drops.

The guy is a clown. Challenged him in public on the veracity of his research. He had to backtrack quickly in the face of public humiliation.

All hail J.C. for he knows more on economics than Tony Alexander

Yvil, if you prepared to sign a binding agreement that you will compensate me if I buy a house and it dosent up in value by at least 8% next year, I'll do it.

Why would anyone give you such a free option? If you want the opportunity to make an 8% return, you are going to have to pony-up and take some risk Kezza. Otherwise you can earn 1% in the bank, soon to be 0%, I will guarantee that for you.

The point is that I don't think house prices will go up so I will not be entering into the market. Yvil is calling it as a hundred percent chance they will.

I doubt he believes that.

Te Kooti has the best burns. Extra kudos if he admits to being a Brony ;-)

I'll take that as a compliment, what is a brony though?

You used the phrase "pony up". 0_o it comes from the cartoon My Little Pony, Friendship is Magic and male adult fans of that show are called Bronies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brony_(disambiguation)

Kezza: "Yvil is calling it as a hundred percent chance they will"

Why do you makeup such rubbish? I have even sold my house because I think there's a real chance house prices could go down

You could always just have lived in it?

Hi Yvil - I enjoy your posts, I to considered selling some property to buy back in hopefully getting a bargain. It would seem this falling market has become a non event. I think you follow TA his latest survey out yesterday shows a growing confident market with alot of upside, a difficult time to set on cash. Happy investing

Bank's prediction went from -7% to plus 7%.
Anybody's guess is good as any. My guess is it will slightly increase this year for Wellington and other small cities while Auckland, Christchurch, Queenstown will see a slight decline due to decreased investment from the Chinese population.
There will be a certainly sharp drop next year but it will not be 25%, but around -5% range.

Jay Lim
"Anybody's guess is good as any" is a ridiculous comment. For me I put far more weight on RBNZ use of data, consideration of the variable factors and their modelling (and having considerable sway in the market) rather than some anonymous dreamer at best using a Ouija board.
There is a big difference between "guessing" and making informed and considered forecasts. And yes, over time as the data changes so do the forecasts.
Always found that those that guessed at the races tended to have far, far less success than those who made informed decisions. In fact we used to call those who simply guessed "bunnies".
Cheers :)

But the RBNZ use Ouija boards... Actually it's a more elaborate ceremony but that's for a different discussion

This is oligopoly signaling of one bank to the others, it is the call that they should all collectively loosen their lending standards. When that happens we should believe the banks' forecasts, because their credit issuance is the key driver for house prices.

My understanding was in RBA bank stress tests they used housing declines of up to 40% and said that these were 'extreme but plausible'. This is not the same as predicting a 40% decline, I believe they estimated a 7% decline.

Laminar you are correct.

So much for the calls that house prices would fall 40%

I think it's a shame that no one looks at both forces at play: financial stimulus and economic pain. There's the camp that says the sky will fall, citing only the economic outcome of locking down and then there's the camp that states that house prices will rise to infinity and beyond because of fiscal stimulus.
It would be great having a neutral, educated, detailed analysis, taking into account both, the upcoming economic pain and the financial stimulus

25
up

I think there's one thing we can all agree on - all we are doing is masking the pain, not treating the source of it.

Not masking the pain, transferring the pain. Lots of people win, lots of other people lose. No such thing as a free lunch!

I think part of the issue for the wildly divergent views is that there's still not been any clear signals of doom and gloom in the economy - well the latest lockdown knocked Auckland back a bit but that's still not very visible yet. What data there is is a little contradictory too - lots of people on mortgage deferrals of some sort, but that's not necessarily indicative of the sky about to fall, and the 2nd and 3rd tranches of the wage subsidy were taken up substantially less than the first tranche was. Not all that many people ended up going onto jobseeker benefit or the special COVID one, and many have already come off. Retail spending (before last lockdown) was something like 3-4% ahead of the same time last year.

I think if we had more clear signals of problems affecting the economy the optimistic scenarios wouldn't exist, but the expected evidence showing the economy is going to hell in a handbasket continues to be elusive.

Good points Lanthanide

I think most would have thought the economic pain would be sudden and acute, but rather I see it being a gradual decline over many months and/or years, like the great depression.

11
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Agreed. It feels like we're in a weird interregnum, waiting for the other shoe to drop, and now starting to doubt the existence of the shoe.

It makes sense as every bank, govt, corporation etc is doing there darndest to halt the inevitable, but the cows will come home as they always do.

I agree YDB "the cows will come home" lol but for me the big question is "WHEN?". It's no good being out of the RE market for fear of a house price drop if the drop doesn't happen for another 10 years

. It's no good being out of the RE market for fear of a house price drop if the drop doesn't happen for another 10 years

People 'can't get out' of the housing market for fear of a house price drop. It would only take a small proportion of home owners to consider getting out for the whole shebang to crash. For ex, if 10% of homeowners tried to "cash out", there wouldn't be enough buyers to meet their price expectations.

Welcome to bubble economics 101.

And pray tell, where will those 177,000 family units live when they all sell their dwellings?

177k dwellings times $597k = $106b. 25% deposit = $26b, the Super Fund together with a few real money funds could put up the deposit and service the debt with the rents those families will have to pay. Throw them all into an SPV, securitise it and fund it at 0.5% with average rent of 4%.

In uncertain times, you want liquidity. RE is very illiquid and those 10 years don't count for much if you can't cash out. A diverse mix of investments is the best strategy. Personally, I don't think 10 years of 8%+ rises are even remotely possible

RE is very illiquid and those 10 years don't count for much if you can't cash out.

The RE market can be very liquid.....at the right price. But you'd likely to be looking at prices up to 70-80% off the seller's expectations.

Yea sorry I meant illiquid when looking to dump stock into the market to avoid imminent losses

I understand, but also my point is quite relevant: People are trapped in their homes because of loss aversion.

"In uncertain times, you want liquidity" - generally true.
But the only certainty we do have is continuing money-printing ; with that in mind you do not want cash .. which changes the equation considerably.

Govt support has been structured to provide a pillow till the election, as you do I guess. There is either a mass inflation/debt forgiveness in our future...OR...the pain of actually paying it back has to begin.

It's a lot more complicated than that. There's no sane fundamentals that to support long term house price growth but if market sentiment remains and the world keeps making it easier to get credit house prices will continue to climb. How do we predict future market sentiment (it's not rational or educated)? and to work out ease of credit we have to model the rest of the world's economy and politics as well. This is not feasible.
You have to simplify this by making massive assumptions which is what everyone is doing. The Westpac economist does not know, he has a model that makes assumptions (probably including that there will be no more disruptive events before the end of next year) that outputs a number that allows him to produce a press release. Watch his number change if we go back to level 4 or have a (G)SIB bank fail.

Westpac economist crystal ball gazing again. The executive team take no notice of him so why should we!

Tim52, it *is* a lot more complicated. Indeed more complicated than 99% of comments made here seem to conceive. Markets are far more complicated than anyone alive has ever been able to fathom or accurately predict.

However, in terms of property price fundamentals, actually we can drill down into those values and get some semblance of "fundamentals".

There are some very decent calculators that help estimate the replacement cost of a house according to region (house insurance calcs). A potential home buyer can look at what it would cost to buy the land in the area they would like to live, they can work out the replacement cost to build a house in that area. The price of land, labour and maybe even materials could come down somewhat in a severe recession. So if someone wished to, they could play around with those variables, see what the value is, if you reduce the price of the land by say 25% etc.

Then we look at the cost of rent. The long term inflation rate of rent over the same length of time you would expect to pay a mortgage. You can choose a very low inflation rate if you want to be ultra conservative.

Calculate the cost of the purchase plus the interest over the same time frame and try a few different interest rate variables (although obviously you'd hope that anyone being sensible enough to look at the fundamentals of house values, would be sensible enough to pay their mortgage off early or have an offset account in case of interest rate hikes but we are probably looking at some low interest rates in the short to medium term).

In a really severe house price crash, house prices can fall below the range of "fundamental value" for a time. But that would require a full psychological herd panic towards extreme fear and generally, that is short lived, eventually, values will bottom out around the lower bound range of replacement value and/or in balance with the rental price yield a landlord can achieve.

Anything outside of that would require some serious geopolitical or world ending craziness, in which case, money would be meaningless and who knows whether owning a home would matter or not.

Great comment Ginja, which is unfortunately far, far beyond the comprehension of most commenters on this site

r/iamverysmart

10
up

"Household debt is still at a record high, equivalent to 164% of household income" + "lower interest rates were likely to push up.... debt levels further" + "house prices set to rise by 8% in 2021"
Looks like a recipe for disaster if you ask me. But at least the author has some sense, "However Ranchhod also sounded a warning about the high debt levels....high debt levels could prove problematic"
But let's ignore that last bit and keep borrowing! It's all free, after all...

(NB: The only question to be answered is "What kind of disaster are we going to get?". Because one way or another; prices up or prices down, either direction is going to create financial and social havoc)

11
up

Assuming banks are still applying a 7-8% interest rate for assessing repayment ability, people taking out mortgages now at these low interest rates should be able to afford an increase in rates.

The problem is while they might 'afford' it, the rest of the economy won't. Putting up rates just a little will suck out a lot of 'discretionary' money very quickly and likely in itself cause a recession, which political parties certainly don't want and probably the RBNZ doesn't either, despite our economic system practically relying on recessions to break up the 'business cycle' and clear out unproductive dead wood.

They aren't, servicability test rates are in the 5s now for at least two of the big 5 and I would bet the others will be there soon if not already.

It's close to 5% now, and that's what is driving prices

I think there's another crucial question bw, "WHEN will disaster strike?" the answer to this question, I suspect, is much further away than most (probably including you?) suspect.

That will become clear after the US election.

Which result do you think would be economically problematic?

The Dem winning would be the worst case. Higher taxes and they are disorganized.
BAU print more money if Trump gets in and then bring in the gold standard.

Hmmm not sure about that.
I think social and economic stability will continue to worsen under Trump.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think Biden is good.
I think it's a 'line call's.

The lesser of two evils then. Currently I've seen nothing that makes me think Biden would be bad for the US. As I've mentioned before it is not the leader that matters - it's the team they bring with them.

So when?

21
up

Three economists go out on a deer hunt. They are wandering through the bush when they spot a beautiful stag. The first economist lines up a shot, fires - and the shot flies 5 meters to the left of the stag. The second economist lines up his shot, fires - and the shot flies 5 meters to the right of the stag. The third economist leaps up and shouts, "we got him!", as the stag bounds off into the distance.

The economist is aiming where his boss tells him to.

16
up

Adrian Orr's trickle down economics has the distinct scent of urine.

14
up

Don't know their arse from their elbow.
World will be in deep shit Feb-October and house prices will fall 10-15% minimum due t over supply and credit problems.

confidence is important, growth in money is from mortgages, without new debt how do we pay the bills/

Develop a Profitable business delivering something customers cant be without, and little to no debt.

Confidence is massively important. Westpac is applying it thick and fast above to protect their bucks.

Let's look at this prediction purely as a function of rates on an interest only mortgage.

1. Currently one year fixed is at circa 2.5% so 1mm borrowed is a cost of 25,000 p.a.

2. If prices rise by 8% then you'd need to borrow 1.08m to buy the same house so your interest bill goes up to 27,000 p.a.

3. The mortgage rate needs a reduction by 19bps to 2.31% for a borrower to still pay 25,000 on the loan with an increased principal amount of 1.08mm.

So what Westpac are really saying is that expect roughly a 20bp reduction in mortgage rates in the next year.

Hardly a revelation given OCR is expected to be negative within 6 months.

It's a bit odd tho that Westpac dont seem to be factoring in any effect of increased Ue or wage reductions or inflationary pressures (eroding real income) which now seem to be working their way thru the economy.

Bank economists' predictions? Lump them together with soothsayers, fortune-tellers, tarot card readers ..... They can predict anything....EXCEPT when the next sucker will come along to pay for their lunch.

They make astrologers look good.

They make *my predictions* look good! At least I stick to one prediction per year.

Difficult to lend that free money if nobody is willing to risk borrowing from you to buy a depreciating asset...thing we can safely call Westpac's prediction exactly what it is ...spruiking

Like most listed companies, Westpac's performance is based on proportionate annual increases in profits for shareholders. Therefore, the only way they can do that is through credit growth. And if the cost of debt is lower, they need to lend greater amounts of moolah to meet their targets. Considering that up to 70% of their revenue comes from mortgages, they need to convince the great unwashed that it's 'business as usual' (even if the business environment points to the opposite). So that's why these media releases need to be taken with a grain of salt.

2/12 Markham Place unit went for 1016000 with a CV of 860000

Vendor was expecting mid 800s to early 900s so is already up by 10% to 15% and this not cherry picking.

So if this goes in 2021 for 1.1million will be a rise of not 8% but 20%.

Westpac experts are talking about 2021 :

So may be that 8% rise is from end December as market may change soon from here on to low before rising.

This experts will keep changing the goal post so may be if the market changes in future after end of wage subsidy and stimulus -The Experts may again change in future so take it with a pinch........they too have to run their kitchen.

Wow.
One of two ATTACHED units with little land.

Yes. Plenty of people, including bank economists, seem to be underestimating the carnage to come...

They do not, they just choose to wear a blindfold.

Hopefully Westpac are right, without any productivity growth we could use the asset price inflation to fill the gap left in our economy, however temporary relief may be.

Hopefully they are not, as a first necessity asset house prices need to be affordable to avoid social issues such as homelessness and inequality.

That crystal ball used by Westpac is made in ...

I love the yo yo predictions. As famous share investors say be fearful when others are bold and be bold when others are fearful. I wonder how many times these experts have been right or wrong. Sure I have made bad calls and some investments have not performed as well as others. But at least I do something and people get to live in the homes I have purchased. How many good things have the bank people done in their lives.

There's a pretty good chance people would live in those houses regardless of whether or not you purchased them. Unless you're actually building houses, or catering to a specific market like students, it's more likely than not that you are just preventing someone else from accessing home ownership.

Wespac economists live in a parallel world where the economy is made of candy.

If this is the case, then why have dividends been suspecnded in NZand not restarted? Also the share price dived during lockdown, and bank shares appear to be one of the few shares that haven't recovered.?

They are out to create FOMO to build their stock price back up.

Lyndon B. Johnson Quotes. Making a speech on economics is a lot like pissing down your leg. It seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else.

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