Auckland's median house price now $1 million, up by $45,000 in a month

Auckland's median house price now $1 million, up by $45,000 in a month
Image: Claudia Raphael

House prices rocketed up to new records in October on the back of cheap mortgage money courtesy of the Reserve Bank.

According to the Real Estate Institute of NZ, the national median selling price hit a record high of $725,000 in October, an increase of $36,000 (+5.2%) in a month and up by $120,000 (+19.8%) since October last year.

In Auckland the median selling price increased by $45,000 in the month of October, rising from $955,000 in September to $1 million in October.

That was a 4.7% increase for the month and a 16.3% increase for the year.

For the rest of the country excluding Auckland, the median price increased from $585,000 in September to to $600,000 in October (+2.6%), putting it ahead by 15.4% compared to October last year.

Record median prices were set in Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Manawatu/Whanganui, Wellington, Marlborough, Canterbury and Otago (see the interactive chart below for the full regional price trends).

The strength of the market was underscored by strong sales volumes, with 8830 residential properties sold in October.

That was the highest number of properties sold in any month of the year since May 2016 and the highest in the month of October since 2006.

In Auckland 3140 properties were sold, up 50.9% compared to October last year.

That was the most properties sold in any month of the year since March 2015 and the highest for the month of October since 2003 (see the second interactive chart below for the full regional sales volume trends).

Properties were also selling more quickly, with the median days to sell dropping from 34 days in October last year to 29 in October this year.

However REINZ chief executive Bindi Norwell raised concerns about the effect the surge in prices was having on affordability in Auckland.

"While this is a significant milestone, it raises serious questions around future affordability for Auckland residents wanting to get a foot on the property ladder," she said.

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Median price - REINZ

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NZ total
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Northland
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Auckland
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Bay of Plenty
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Gisborne
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Hawke's Bay
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Taranaki
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Volumes sold - REINZ

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NZ total
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Northland
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Auckland
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Waikato
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Bay of Plenty
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Gisborne
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Hawke's Bay
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Manawatu
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Taranaki
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Wellington
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Tasman
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Nelson
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Marlborough
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West Coast
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Canterbury
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Otago
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Southland
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210 Comments

40
up

This is crazy

17
up

I think the boomers will start to see angry young faces on the streets very soon, and unfortunately maybe even some hate. Do not be surprised , and do not blame them.

Predictable response same as before house prices increased 4.7 /16.3 percent... you people don't change your thinking but the ones that did are happier

andreas
A ridiculous brainless comment.
What do boomers have to do with it?
Anybody who have bought a house over the past decade have seen their house increase considerably in value along with their their mortgage rates falling by as much as 50%. These are not boomers; boomers generally have not bought houses in the past decade - they bought houses over thirty to forty years ago.
A baseless scapegoating comment; get over your prejudices.

12
up

What do boomers have to do with it?

Well, the architects of the destruction of the value of money (the fuel for the bubble) are boomers. Boomer plebs usually side with the ruling elite. It's not any wonder there would be animosity.

JC... It was Nixons generation that did away with the Bretton Woods Monetary system...
Started after WW2.. (A political version of Keynesianism which unleashed Money supply growth. )
Everyone seems to love to blame the so-called 'Boomers"...... I'd suggest that the boomer generation were raised to be savers BUT quickly learnt the realities of monetary inflation, and became borrowers , buying assets that were/are a store of value.

I see the whole "debt based Money supply growth" paradigm as an exponential function..
Back in the day..... when inflation was discussed, it was in the context of Monetary inflation and included asset prices.
The false paridgmn has been/is the fixation on CPI inflation.
Adam Grimes alludes to it here. https://www.interest.co.nz/news/107712/former-rbnz-chairman-arthur-grime...

"When Grimes helped draft the Act (which has since been updated) in 1989, he said the phrase “general level of prices” was deliberately used to include asset price inflation as well as consumer price inflation, should this be necessary."

Ha Ha Ha . My comment is actually brainFULL !! I did not state what you thought I did , I rather expressed my expectation of intergenerational hate in the society , I did not state I am happy with that and this is right thing. So this is your prejudices, not my

Agreed, printer8.

Andreas_od - aren't you too busy living your best life to be out on the streets??

Andreas_od - aren't you too busy living your best life to be out on the streets??

No need for trolling. This is an important issue.

I would expect there is going to be a lot of uncomfortable family chats over lunch this Christmas. Parents/Grandparents "Sally when are you going to buy a house, why are you only renting? Rates are so low. In my day rates were..."

"Sally when are you going to buy a house, why are you only renting? Rates are so low. In my day rates were..

Ask the grey hairs how much Bitcoin they own.

J.C.
Yes it is important issue; however nothing can be achieved through prejudice based slagging-off posts such as both the initial and your earlier comments.
How about some constructive comments if you wish to address the issue?

How about some constructive comments if you wish to address the issue?

Asking people not to troll is constructive.

Ha ha ha , typical kiwi logic detected!! If someone raises an issue , that someone becomes responsible for the issue . Lol , this is exactly why noone from any goverments raises housing crisis as an issue , because society will start to blame them , even though they will try to fix it

Lame comment

As a 70 year old Boomer I telling you you are a dick. Pull your socks up and do real hard work to get on the property ladder.

I appreciate your feedback, read my other comments as well please before responding. I personally have nothing against any older or younger generations, I am just stating that the issue of intergenerational hate may arise on the grounds of haves vs have-nots . I reiterate !!! Get rid of this logic - if someone raises an issue he is not automatically becoming the supporter of the issue , but most likely wants to resolve it. And I do work hard , the problem is that the prices rise way to fast . In Auckland if you are not aware just in last month prices rose by almost one average annual salary . I does not matter what you roll up, your sleeves, socks or anything else you could roll up . Do the math

Another buzz word detected "property ladder" - used by the industry, assuming you can't live all your life in the same property, you supposedly have to step from one property to another and feed the industry parasites (e.g. bankers and RE agencies) . And don't forget to raise rents soon telling your tenants you can't keep up with council rates.

39
up

Why the f*ck did I move back from the UK?

20
up

Not too late to head back there.

21
up

mate, move back , UK probably has worse weather , but at least you will have a bit broader conversation with people than just about the property, mortgage rates and property and mortgage rates, and property and mortgage rates .... And you 'll probably own the actual house , not the 1mil debt

Don't forget the rugby as well.

Not only worse weather - but worse Covid as well.

Take your pick - UK or NZ.

15
up

Same mistake eh.

NZ is a nice place to visit, but screw living here.

Interest Commenter: "We need to stop immigration"

Also Interest Commenter: "I'm emigrating"

25
up

I think most commenters are OK with immigration in general, but don't agree with the current pace of it. I'm an immigrant myself, and I think NZ is really f***ing up its present and future by importing 50k+ people per year, most of whom are unskilled, low wage workers.
There's a huge difference between having 5-10k highly skilled immigrants vs having those plus an extra 40-50k low skilled ones.

yep, but big corporates want cheap labour

I'm pro immigration but tend to agree with you on the lower skilled, I'm not a fan either. My comments now just highlight the hypocrisy of what I read. Many posters here are anti-immigration then promptly announce they are off to Oz (they have a jobs shortage and do not want Kiwi's)

IMO many here are anti-mass immigration and proclaimed "value" of this policy by politicians and vested interests.

Reminds me of the property owners in suburban Auckland who want affordable housing for their children, just not in their neighborhood.

Many are opposed to high volume low-skilled immigration rather than select and high-skilled immigrants. I.e. the supermarket workers, hospitability, bottle-stores workers, petrol station workers, dubious 'managers' of dairies / stores, fast-food workers etc.

Which bracket you standing mate? Lol

Take a guess. My annual salary is roughly 3 months' worth of Auckland house prices increases. Clearly I just need to work harder.

15
up

Have you thought about just becoming a house?

Exactly the point I've been talking about for months. Keep immigration to max 10k per year for the next 10 years and the builders will then catch up with demand. Big business may need to look at their business model if it only works with low wage immigrant workers.

Multiple citizenships too difficult for Te Klowni to grasp?

You're still here?

Actually said to my wife earlier, we should look at heading back if Covid can get controlled. There's a painful correction coming. It's not going to be a sharp one, its going to be a slow twist for two decades or so.

I wouldn't be so confident. I think the future is highly uncertain and there are several realistic scenarios.

32
up

Life in Adern's NZ.

14
up

That’s a cheap but unusually accurate shot. I can’t see how my vote for homes for all has been so wrong. Isn’t this wonderful government worried?

10
up

I suppose if they are worried, and dwell on it and allow the press to quote them on the worry, then it would admit to the voters that they are overseeing a big slow moving disaster of inequality.
By ignoring it and redirecting attention, it helps voters also ignore the mess. And hey only 1.5% of voters were interested in TOP and an aggressive dream of controlling house price rises, so 98.5% of us are willing to carry on feeling good about high house prices.

7.9% of people also voted for the Greens, who aside from TOP are the only other party to clearly state that house prices need to fall.

Would you like to provide a link to their web page that 'clearly state that house prices need to fall.'

They all talk about affordability, Greens by saying other people's money by way of subsidy are going to make houses more affordable, and TOP saying they would hold prices still while incomes catch up.

In a politician's perfect world house prices can increase at 10% per annum and at the same time can become more affordable, while wages don't increase.

I just googled it and the first thing that popped up contained:

The average house price in Auckland has risen to nearly $1 million, or 10 times the median household income.

Ms Turei said the only way to reverse that was to slowly bring prices back down to three or four times the median household income.

She told Morning Report the Green Party was considering what timeframe would work without crashing the market and hurting people who already owned homes.

"The only way to prevent a bust, and to protect families in the short and long term is to lay out a comprehensive plan, which means using every comprehensive tool that we've got so that we can slowly bring down house prices so that they're reasonable."

The Auckland Council's chief economist had suggested bringing prices down to five times the median household income by 2030, she said.

Labour leader Andrew Little said Ms Turei's declaration that Auckland house prices should be deliberately reduced was irresponsible.

That was from 2016 so it's obviously been on their radar a while. Now it's going to be exponentially harder to unwind.

If you had gone to their present website it doesn't say that at all, and bringing down to a lower median multiple is not the same as lowering absolute prices.

What they meant then is the same as TOP is saying now, hold prices still until incomes increases over time to lower the median multiple.

This is not the Greens policy now, they want to subsidize affordability, which is not true affordability.

Ms Turei's statement then was a more honest assessment of what needed to be done, than Andrew Little's efforts since then which have seen prices increase to truly irresponsible levels.

And yes it is almost impossible to unwind now without crashing the market.

If only we could pay our mortgages with snark :(

10
up

And hugs.

High Fivve ...Very Niiiice Country

Of course Jacinda isnt worried. The more people who cant afford homes, and are thus dependent on the Govt for housing, the better for her. 20,000 on the public housing list, and that's just August numbers. All these investment properties being sold to new investors, you can pretty much guarantee they go back on the market at much higher rents. So rents will head higher as well, as if the 25% rental increase in places like Porirua over the last year wasnt enough!

I was worried they were going to cave into the demands of the salvation army who demanded rises to welfare rates - when that money will likely just fall into the hands of landlords and banks as they raise rents in response. The system is kaput.

I thought COVID was going to crash the market.

29
up

It likely would have if it weren’t for the extraordinary government/central bank intervention/s

23
up

I think even Stevie Wonder could see this was going to happen with the fiscal policies the RBNZ have implemented. Orr has got to go.

RBNZ implements monetary policies, Govt implements fiscal policies.

Apologies. Incompetent either way

10
up

Yes and both not permitted or contemplated, to impact the process whereby wealth continues to be sucked up by 20% of folk who own most of the housing and share equity.

There's nothing to stop anyone from owning shares. You can start with $1.

Apart from not having money.

Wow, what a privilledged life you must live. Perhaps you need to spend some time in poor areas in NZ, understand peoples predicaments and their position in life before reconsidering your comment.

I stand by that statement. There are definite impediments to owning property, but anyone can own shares. The barrier to entry is very low.

According to election data, people in poor areas really want to spend their money on legal marijuana, whereas people in rich areas would prefer to spend their money on other things. Good insight into people's priorities. Funnily enough, the same places that want legal dope are also the same places where the Govt has to feed their kids at school.

Government sets the guidelines by which monetary policies are to be implemented, and also the tools that it allows the RBNZ to use to implement those policies (National refused to give them a debt-to-income ratio for housing loans).

18
up

stability of the financial system

(translated: the wealthy get wealthier)

36
up

So the median NZ house price has almost doubled in 5 years but our wages are stagnant or average take home pay this year down. This is the collective path to economic hell, while those who are benefiting will tell you it’s heaven.

20
up

David Seymour (once again), taking the lead and pointing out the obvious. Well done, sir.

Seymour is just feeding off public sentiment. Pretend libertarian.

26
up

20% up in 1 year nationally! That reflects poorly on the Government which is ultimately responsible for giving the RBNZ its brief. Also Labour got elected (with Winston's help) on the promise of building 100'000 affordable homes… The government haven't introduced any meaning full legislation to stop house price rises.

Well said.

20
up

NZ will have 3 more years of Jacinda looking concerned and sending her condolences, while her Government achieves nothing.

Empathy is her trump card

It's disheartening that having empathy would be considered a trump card for any politician

You can only pull that for so long though. Eventually people will see through the bullshit. Especially when you're the one who has the power to change the situation.

50% of you clowns out their just voted in Labour again so I'm guessing 50% of you out there are more than happy to have house prices going up and up ? seems a lot of very unhappy people on here. The outcome of the election doesn't seem very representative of the sentiment here thats all I'm saying.

Labour are more likely to do something than National or Act, this is why they got my vote. It doesn't mean I expect them to do much.
National wanted to remove foreign buyer restrictions and reduce the bright line test to 2 years, both change only serve to increase property prices. National aren't the party for business, they are the party for rich people.

It’s more than just the Govt as RBNZ are independent. Same thing happened under John Key in the fallout of the GFC. My view is the economic model/control system is broken as house price (and stock) inflation is not captured as part of CPI. There’s clearly a disconnect between main st/real economy and asset prices, and this is a global problem not just NZ

Yeah, it's important to maintain some perspective on this. Same thing is happening across the world -- low interest rates driving asset prices up in a Mexican wave, all the margin being stripped out of a sector before the horde descends on the next. At some point the local housing market will reach a high (maybe when there's 0% rental yield even on meth-houses in Kawerau) and then the vampires will descend on the next sector.
I think this gov't is very unlikely to achieve their goals, because this dynamic is beyond their power to control unless they were to enact truly creative and drastic measures. Which is not going to happen, because they are timid, consensus-driven politicians who are psychologically still in the 1990s.

12
up

Agreed. That’s why I like TOP. They set out to actually do something about it. Unfortunately most of NZ isn’t onboard. I guess the enjoy their money/equity for nothing gains by lowering interest rates trick. After all, who doesn’t like free money?

Yes they are independent but their mandate can be changed by the government with legislative change.

Cunliffe tried with the CGT, look at how that went down with the voting public. I can’t see either major party changing the status quo in a meaningful way. They know it will be political suicide

So the only way this likely ends is civil unrest or the bubble imploding and taking down our economy.

Historically, yes but I'd hope we would have learned a lesson by now

This is just the start too, I am now expecting another 20-40% increase by March as the RBNZ decides to act more idiotically than I thought was possible.

At the same time the government will act like a lame duck claiming there's nothing they can do.

Watch for the resignation of Orr and co, it will happen just before the bubble pops.

Where is your God now Mike Kirk and associates????

God is not going to help
He gave us free will you may recall.
printing largesse is what we do with it.
You may recall from bible "to him that hath"
Which is pretty much what abdication of politics to neo-liberal finance gives you.

Does that translate into: "I admit I was wrong predicting house price drops ever since I joined Interest" ?

14
up

There has been massive financial intervention to soften the fallout from an unprecedented event which without, may have caused things to have gone in a very different direction - the direction that all major bank economists were predicting until very recently (forecasts they've now reversed). What Mike has provided throughout his involvement is data and reasonable, logical forecasts and right or wrong, it's him who offers more value than you do. Why are you so insistent on having someone admit they were wrong or beating them? Grow up.

Thanks Johnny. Yvil is a little one club in the bag, without much else analysis.
As you say, I look at what I can find and report it.

Actually, I find him to be the most honest and open contributors here. He has offered up far more on himself personally than the rest of us, which I think takes some courage, and I'm always interested in what he has to say.

Hi Yvil

no. But yes I was wrong about house price falls, consistently.
It is not hard to admit, as facts are facts.
No government or RB chairman is going to permit prices to decline.
At present, the governments of the world want banks to generate inflation to erode debt, so that is what will happen
Will be interesting when inflation is not met with higher rates of course.

But house crashes have occured elsewhere. Were they allowed to or was the bubble so bad that no amount of intervention could salvage things?

27
up

If Bindi Norwell is raising concerns about housing affordability, then it's clear how bad this is.

When that imposter syndrome kicks in... "Do I really deserve all this money?"

It is crazy. Actually in Auckland it is appox 10% to 30% rise in just a month or two and Mr Orr is laughing at the plight of FHB - Sadistic pleasures by screwing FHB.

In Pakuranga, Howick and nearby area, can observe a cartel of RE Agents who have investors with them (Need not say say - Chinese) and have most listings among themselves and are now listing with minimmum 50% above RV and by selling one establish the rate and pushing the rate higher and higher - With each sale test new high for next and so on.

Beloved and Favourate - Messiah of Common People - our PM...... less said the better.

Tone the drama down and try reading the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989 which sets RBNZ and Mr Orr's targets. Some here are starting to sound like Trumptards by rejoicing in their ignorance.

yes indeed, the playbook for government not being permitted to do anything naughty with finance (like redistribution. or controlling money supply etc)
Government is ELECTED. Financial power is not. And governments have gone all monastic in denying themselves, freely, of all such option.
No wonder Trump got in. Left in particular forgot that ignoring its base means they have nowhere else to go except Right

It's barely drama:

8 - Function to formulate monetary policy through MPC
(1)
The Bank, acting through the MPC, has the function of formulating a monetary policy directed to the economic objectives of—
(a)
achieving and maintaining stability in the general level of prices over the medium term; and
(b)
supporting maximum sustainable employment.
(2)
The MPC must, in acting under this section, have regard to—
(a)
the efficiency and soundness of the financial system; and
(b)
any matter provided for in a remit under section 10(3)(d).
(3)
The function of formulating monetary policy includes deciding the approach by which the operational objectives set out in a remit are intended to be achieved.

Note "the efficiency and soundness of the financial system". They are way, way outside this now. They have massively blown up a bubble. House lending by banks as a percentage of all lending has grown from under 50% to over 60% in 20 years. Everyone has told them that the housing market in NZ is in a bubble for years, therefore to ensure financial stability, they need to reduce this exposure. Instead, they are increasing the financial systems exposure to this bubble market, year after year through policies designed to further inflate it.

Ergo, they are acting outside their mandate. They need to be stood down and investigated.

How is he going to achieve his targets when it feels like all the extra money is flowing into housing and stocks?
If it all gets parked there, then where is the money to inflate wages, which would then allow inflation in services and produce?
Because the more property prices keep shooting up, then the less spare cash the average household has left over to support inflation in services and produce, no?
What have I missed?

Do not ask these questions, they will be pointedly ignored by the RBNZ.

"Actually in Auckland it is appox 10% to 30% rise in just a month"

So you're saying REINZ data of 4.7% rise is wrong and you have better data than them?

Current v historical.
Auckland median in March 2017 was $900k. It is now $1m.
11.11% up in 3.58 years.
I make that 3.1% pa.
Inflation is? People forget easily

Yeah but 3.1% on $900K is huge, 3.1% on your salary is pathetic.

As crazy as this might seem this is just circumstantial given the conditions for the wildfire are currently pretty much optimal for the wealthy, this is a sprint race that cannot last for very long, specially now the RBNZ has said the LVR restrictions will be reintroduced.

Median prices are up 36% since November 2017. The damage is done even if it stops here.

Agree, but this would affect just buyers who purchased a property during this period right? People who bought before bubble times (the vast majority of homes in the country) will be the ones pushing prices down since they won't have negative equity, it will be a problem for those that bought during this period of stupid money flowing into the market though.

b21, it's not "a sprint" the RBNZ have announced the FLP as soon as next month, this will further reduce interest rates and inflame house prices, furthermore the RBNZ has stated that interest rates will stay low for at least 3 - 5 years. You are still mixing up what you think "should' happen with what will happen

You always read the part you are interested in, conveniently choosing to ignore the reintroduction of LVR restrictions.

"You are still mixing up what you think "should' happen with what will happen" - you keep saying this about everyone who disagrees with you, Yvil. But that poster - and all of the others as far as I can see - just aren't making that mistake. It's perfectly clear that B21 is making a prediction about what they think WILL happen. The fact that you disagree with that prediction is fine, but it does not mean the poster is making the kind of mistake you keep bringing up.

Yvil ....you may miss this comment as late, but quoting you above........... "furthermore the RBNZ has stated that interest rates will stay low for at least 3 - 5 years" .....Google "Canada interest rates" in Google itself or Google news ? ........do you really believe the current "state of the market" will be the same in 3-5 years time ?

Let's hope. But so much of the national psyche is tied up in housing - me included - and today I'm feeling pretty down about where we're headed. (Yes, I also appreciate there are a numberof people happy as pigs in the proverbial).

10
up

Ardern's abdication (par for course for Labour governments) to private capital means her effort or "commitment" to reducing child poverty is doomed by rising prices and rents. Supply cannot be built fast enough for those who cannot buy. Robertson just allows Reserve Bank to continue tinkering with money supply for inducing more debt, pretending that chasm of economic recession merited it. Except that NZ market is now headed into a blow off top of indulgence. Developers are offloading all the stuff they can get to market, built or not. Meanwhile great majority of house owners are going nowhere. 40% of what is on RE NZ is not built yet. So of the 5900 houses and townhouse on there today, 3540 are actually ready to occupy. In Auckland, a city of 1.65m people and around 335,892 privately occupied houses (1.65m divided by occupancy of about 2.8 persons gives you 589,286 and only 57% are owner occupied = 335,892. Which in turn means that of that OO stock, only 1% is in fact currently OTM. No exactly a gabardine rush is it. Sales in Auckland are 50% up on last October. For rest of NZ, excl Auckland it is 14%. Investors piling in and outbidding FHB. Not a good image of "fairness" for the new government is it?

19
up

Robertson is buggering the entire country.

I'm almost inclined to say just leave them to it so that we can experience what a real bubble bursting looks like.

10
up

"Robertson is buggering the entire country."

LOL

Pathetic homophobia.

!

I know developers that can't believe their luck. All logic pointed to a downturn but hey, they aren't going to question their good fortune and will happily take the money, which gets money in (cash sales and early settlements, and transfers debt and liability onto to others that might have up to 12 months to settle.

If the market tanks in 12 months, developers have a 20% deposit and will sue for specific performance.

yes Dale. I notice no one wants to outline how many of the "sales" are in fact not built yet.

Isn't it irrelevant? 1) They are selling these off the plans, for good prices, right now. 2) The other sales that are happening are at very high levels.

The fact that some listings aren't built yet just shows the shortage of stock. Because listings are selling quickly.

10
up

This is a good thing. I'm now convinced that the only way this issue will ever be fixed is after it badly hurts a lot of people. Until then we will simply get lip service on the issue from our illustrious leaders while they continue to compound the root causes. Hectic increases in house prices are a good thing, because they will push us closer to this point.

I unfortunately came to that conclusion circa 2015 and since then we've only dug a deeper hole.

Many have come to that same conclusion 25 years ago...

That's about the point at which this madness started (take a look at the long term charts)....and here we at a point when it could well end. If you think the economic conditions are the same...well good for you!

Even you seem to think the RBNZ have got it wrong.

But come on, fair play - do you really think the RB and govt are going to let a crash take place?

Of course. I think you overestimate their competence significantly if you think they could prevent one.

Auckland HPI at an all time high of 3304, up approximately 15% YoY.

So that means not even our bravest spruikers got their predictions right. Even the most extreme bullish "investors" seem to be baffled by the state of things. Great job Adrian, you always manage to defy expectations.
Next time Adrian Orr has to call the firefighters to his house, they should tell him they'll probably be there in about 4-5 hours...

Take a bow Mr Orr and Labour.

And then exit stage left. Permanently.

One day this is going to end badly but that is going to be a while off yet. Lots of money to be made from property before that happens, especially with the RBNZ's actions.

Welcome to the other side boddy

He has got a nice boddy

Orr ensures a legacy of debt enslavement to foreign interests via stupid house prices and unafordable rents. His masters are happy.

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Sickening. If you're a young person trying to establish a career and get an income that would put you in a position to buy, surely the message here is why bother. The goalposts just keep shifting further away at an ever increasing rate. For many, the best options will either be leave the country when able or be one of the lucky few with family in a position to help. We're well on track for a new class system based on property ownership.

Agreed. My concern is what happens when they realise the policy hasnt worked? Rich people simply buy mpre property with their paper worth, they dont spend it. Rinse. Repeat. Until when?

Have you read any of Ray Dalio's work on the long debt cycle? Basically we devalue fiat currency because the productive economy can't support the debt levels created by the money printing and associated rise in asset prices, and at some point people realise the fiat currency is worthless and make a rush for hard currency

I have read 'principles' - great book.
I worry how people can afford this particular fixed asset now. Crashes and crises by Connel Fullenkamp was a recent read of mine so perhaps it has skewed my risk tolerance of late! Are we following Japan down a path they followed until 1992 ? Does Adrian Orr care? He wont be Governor in 4 years.

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Our son is just finishing uni and we tell him he's likely to have a much better future in Australia.

They don't want him, he's not welcome.

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By the way things look, young people are simply not welcome in NZ. Not even kiwis.

of course you're welcome .... as long as you pay 50% of your wages to me in order to have somewhere to put your clothes and shower gel

What do you base this on, out of interest? Who is 'they'?

I was offered a high-paying job in Melbourne at the beginning of this year (which I turned down). I'm a Kiwi.

There aren't enough jobs for Australians post Covid, do you really think they want Kiwi's coming over? They really don't.

Maybe. Especially as China is whacking Aus because they had the audaciousness to criticize them, unlike meek and immoral NZ.

Of course they do. Australian employers prefer Kiwi workers to Aussies. I have a friend who got a job over there, left in September. Why do you think the Australian Govt opened the NZ border even though its only one way - hint, its not so that NZers can go take holidays.

2020 has been great, my North Shore house has increased in value by $2-300K, mortgage paid off, got a pay rise and will get a bonus for bumper sales this year. Far better than the outlook in March.

But what about the community at large? i.e. not just you?

According to the Real Estate Institute of NZ, the national median selling price hit a record high of $725,000 in October, an increase of $36,000 (+5.2%) in a month and up by $120,000 (+19.8%) since October last year.
Inevitable: And the get of jail free card for the RBNZ:

"Low interest rates are a global phenomenon, and reflect the fact that the level of interest rates needed to match savings and investment in the economy has declined over time. These developments have been largely outside the control of central banks."

And yet:

by Audaxes | 11th Nov 20, 11:05am
Is this responsible RBNZ regulatory oversight?:
Banks extending 60 % of their lending to one third of already wealthy households to speculate in the residential property market because the RBNZ offers them a RWA capital reduction incentive, to do so.
Or this:
RBNZ cutting OCR in half five times since July 2008, causing the rich to capitalise rising discounted present values of future asset cash flows.

And yet again:

What's the stated aim of central bank QE, other than to lower term interest rates to "stimulate" bank lending, to spur GDP qualifying growth which demands goods beyond existing production capacity, which then spikes CPI inflation along with rising interests rates as opportunity costs increase?

Seems to me banks see little opportunity to lend to productive enterprise that will repay their extension of credit and falling interest rates are the response to flush out a better collateralised borrower with more than adequate income to service said debt. Central banks actually don't have much of a role in all this. They just follow market interest rates down.

Time for someone to take control of our destiny.

Who is going to take control of our destiny?

Central banking and its policy making isn't a democratic process as far as I'm aware.

How about yourself ?

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You know what Yvil? Your claptrap around 'taking control of your own destiny' is garbage.
It's become harder and harder to do as prices have continued to soar and diverge to a greater and greater extent from incomes.
Maybe once upon a time it had some truth to it.
Not everyone can generate a successful business, and there are finite limits to how many businesses can exist in a small market.
And if you don't own a successful business then you earn a salary. You try saving a good deposit on an average or even above average income when prices keep soaring higher.

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Yes Fritz and watch Yvil YELP ! if you suggest changes to any of the financial regimes for property investors ie tax concessions, accommodation supplement, land tax, capital gains tax etc etc ....as I have always said ....FREE MARKET MY A$$ !!!

Yelp yelp yelp, lol.
I'd you don't believe you're the one in charge of your own destiny then don't complain when others make decisions for you.
Of course we're all responsible for our own lives!

Yvil, that doesn't make sense. The thing people are complaining about IS other people making decisions for them. The govt and the RBNZ make decisions on our behalf. And those decisions have really screwed the housing market, which has really badly affected a lot of people. You and some other posters here seem to have the quite frankly nutty idea that no one should ever complain about the things elected officials do on our behalf, and instead just passively accept it.

Fritz, so you don't think you're responsible for your destiny? You don't think how you treat your partner matters? You don't think if you spend time with your kids or not matters? You don't think how you treat other people matters? You don't think what work choices you make, whether employed, self employed or as an employer matter? You don't think your choices about how you invest matters? Com'on we disagree on ideas but surely you're not foolish enough to really think you're not the very person in charge if your own destiny

I see you've completely ignored my post above, Yvil. You seem to think there are only two options: you have complete control over your own destiny, or you have no control. In reality, of course the decisions you make matter - but the decisions other people make that affect you matter too. As do external events like earthquakes, plagues, car crashes, illnesses, etc. There are a lot of things that are in our control, but also a lot of things that arent. I can only assume you've led a charmed life if this isn't obvious to you.

It's pointless focussing on matters that are out of our control because, by definition, we have no influence over these events. That's why I like to focus on what I can do to better my life. i.e. I did lose my house in the Chch earthquake, I did not blame the circumstances and whinge "why did this happen to me", instead I looked at what I could do to get a n insurance payout asap and another house

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What do you suggest - go and buy a few rentals ;-p

Screw someone else over (say a young family wishing to buy their first home) so that I can 'get ahead' of them?

Yvil's already stated in the past that ethics aren't a consideration in his investing decisions.

He's in it for himself. He was kindly received by our once great and egalitarian country as an immigrant, presumably with some sort of skill to offer, and he is giving back by speculating on multiple properties.
Sums up so much that is wrong with our country and it's abysmal immigration policy.

Bad, bad Yvil, what a terrible person, he's evil, you guys are so much better and you have the amazing God given gift to judge and decide who's good and who's bad.
Lucky you guys are perfect

For the record, I don't blame or have any angst at you personally. It's the system that enables this route as a path to wealth that's the problem.

He doesn't help himself at all with his gloating.

Fair comment. His humility seems like a personal weak point.

Just highlighting the moral hazard of this 'take care of oneself' by buying investment property without considering the bigger picture. Our decisions impact other people. Buying up rental property to secure your own financial future only puts someone else further behind, who will then likely need government support (which in theory should then be sourced via tax from those who are doing ok - unless of course that is property)...You can't both be the cause and solution of the same problem. Yvil doesn't care about the solution I don't think, although I know he has a good heart. He volunteers at donates to charities so like any issue and person, they aren't black and white issues as such. Many factors to consider.

At this point I think its actually immoral for people to buy investment properties that are suitable first homes. Just because you are legally permitted to do something, and have the money to do it, doesn't actually make it right. Want to build something? Fine. Want to buy a student rental even? Sure. But don't outbid first home buyers on properties that are suitable first homes. There are other ways to make money.

If your solution is to appeal to an investors better nature, you're a fool. My non deplume might give the game away about my personal view on this, I sleep very well at night. I personally find the people running listed companies, hedge funds and real money funds to be odious overpaid sociopaths so I avoid investing there where I can.

I wasn't proposing appealing to investors morality as a solution. Immoral or not, people are still going to do it, which is why the government/rbnz needs to rein them in. I still think it is immoral, though. Its knowingly and actively contributing to a whole lot of misery.

The solution to more affordable house prices has little to do with investors, it requires joined up strategic planning and infrastructure. Like any large city - affordable housing is going to be on the city limits (or higher density) - we need to be able to get people into the city quickly and affordably from 20km+ away. Perversely enough, more people actually bring the infrastructure scale to make it viable.

Sure. Those things would be great. But that doesn't absolve people of individual responsibility.
And there's plenty of evidence that investors contribute to high house prices. For a start, they increase demand for the pool of available houses, and it follows that increases in demand causes increases in prices. The massive increase in investors since the LVRs were lifted and the massive increase in prices since is concrete evidence of this.

We have the most investor friendly housing market on the planet - no where comes close. Investors are acting rationally, we are telling them to buy investment property. I understand the point you are making and I wish you well.

So we are in a situation where almost nobody is forced to sell but have record numbers doing so. Why? I just don't believe that it is mainly people upgrading. It seems that a lot of investors may be selling to FHBs. Would like to see some stats on who the sellers are if possible, especially how many sellers intend to reinvest proceeds back into the market in the next 90 days and % of rentals vs owner occupied properties being sold. Link anyone?

Take a look at this chart in another interest.co.nz article:

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/107932/kiwibank-economists-say-curre...

It looks like lending to investors is rising just as quickly for investors as FHB. So the theory of investors offloading property to FHB might be a myth.

So who is selling?? and why??

lots selling because they were waiting for prices to go up, having gone nowhere in Auckland for 3 years.
Then there are also a LOT of unbuilt places being sold off plan etc, which we are not having enumerated

Well all sorts of different reasons. I know 2 people who have sold recently. 1) Deceased estate - family member died and 2) Wanting to downsize, pay off mortgage.

Investors are offloading a lot of properties that do not meet the upcoming rental standards, or are in areas that attract dodgy tenants, but are otherwise perfect for first home buyers. Then they go buy something that requires less capital spending, is lower maintenance, and attracts better tenants. So its not investors getting out of the market, they are merely repositioning their portfolios.

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Classic New Zealand culture has provided a fertile environment for immigrants to thrive and get ahead. Nothing wrong with that statement, right? That's what we wanted.

However many immigrants come from cultures that are subtly different from our own. By in large they think in the much longer term and are devoted to the prosperity of their children.

Many totally focus on their children's education as well as providing their children with houses. This drives them to acquire as many houses as possible. They also pay all their children's educational expenses sometimes costing hundreds of thousands of dollars to make then doctors and dentists and so on.

This is different to classic NZ culture where children have to fend for themselves after they turn 18. Some parents even want to spend all their wealth on themselves before they die.

Where will this clash of cultures lead? Well I can tell you, not to a very good place for classic Kiwi types I suspect unless we change and adapt.

Ask not what you can do for your country,
ask how you can better expose yourself to the ever appreciating asset classes

All part of adapting to a changing world I guess.

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This is going to kill New Zealand economy one day thanks to government and RBNZ. Most printed money went into houses, only a small amount went to productive industry. It will soon be over. It's time to get your money out of your bank and transfer it to somewhere safer. Don't leave it in one basket.

FOMO was escalated in September by Mr Orr deputy which led to rush and today again with all the data and media attention supported and promoted by Mr Orr policy and time till with LVR till March next year will lead to another surge and not surprised if till March house prices double or atleast gone up by 50% minimum as entire RE lobby is out to exploit the sentiment.

Mr Orr Should over come his EGO and ACT NOW , specially now when their is no denial of the rampage that is going on in housing market and LABOUR PARTY should too avoid ignoring and do something and not misuse the mandate / trust imposed on them.

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IS MR ORR AND JA AWARE THAT THAT AS PER THEIR DATA EVERYONE WHO OWNS A HOUSE EARNED $1500 PER DAY (have o highlight in bold and yes am shouting) STILL NO ACTION BY ANYONE WHO CAN CONTROL THE DISTORTATION.

Data is average $1500 PER DAY but in many could be much higher. Shame that JA who portrays to be.....but reality is........power corrupts even the most innocent.

Everyone with a house is earning an annualised $550K/year? It looks like your math is wrong.

$45000 a month per house is roughly $1500 per day. Actually "your math is wrong" as you shouldn't annualise a monthly change.

So every house has gone up by $45000 in one month?

"For the rest of the country excluding Auckland, the median price increased from $585,000 in September to to $600,000 in October"

So not $45000 then.

JA stopped COVID-2 from killing you and many other NZers, richard1965.

You can't expect everything!

.

Greg, according to this article house prices are up:
16.3% in Auckland
15.4% for the rest of the country excluding Auckland
19.8% nationally
How is the possible? Should the national avg not sit somewhere in between Auckland and rest of NZ?

16.3% annual and still No words from JA

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/housing-market-bolts-away-auckland-u...

Whst the shit (as cannit swear) are they waiting for before taking action

Appox $200000 rise in one year and is mostly in ladt few months. FHB time to revolt out in streets as if nothing done and Mr Orr still keep doing what is he doing, next year will be another 200000 so from already high price before lock down till next year will be 50% rise as JA will not act as have got the vites and now who cares and screw FHB

The thing about asset bubbles is they become more powerful than politics or central banks. Animal spirits....its the psychology of the people. We collectively become stupid at the same time.

So to expect a rational thinking leader to put forward rational policy and expect it to be accepted by the average voter who has collectively become stupid...well good luck with that.

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A national disaster.

Both parties played their part.
Sorry I couldn't help myself.

What did the HPI show?

haw haw ........ more moolah for moi and my ilk, straight to the big 4 Australian banks and their owners (that's me ! :)) .......keep up the good work all you plebeians, work yourselves into a lather and buy that 4th investment property and keep those funds rolling in .....just like the gentle waves lapping up onto the bright white sandy beach, encased by azure blue seas, here in front of one of my vacation homes on the Grand Cayman Islands ......haw haw ...even less tax to pay .....that's a double "haw haw" !

Porirua officially more expensive than Wgtn city!

Aotea/Whitby are getting ridiculous, but a symptom of the biggest problem in Wellington that no one has a solution for - theres just nowhere left to build.

or just slowly phase out and replace taxbreaks that incentivise collecting houses?

We need a vaccine for the RBNZ !!

Funny I don't feel any richer but apparently I am, but my kids will sure feel poorer when/if they ever want to buy a house....just madness

What!? You're not going to use your new found equity / property price gain to spend and 'stimulate the economy'.
That's not what Adrian said would happen. He can't be wrong can he?

As someone somewhere on this website said today, let it boom! The more it irrationally booms, the more likely it will crash.
Only a crash will sort things out. The government certainly won't.

Looks like Ardern and Robertson are out to beat Clarke and Cullen's record of 100% house price rises in 9 years. Key and English only managed 70%.

Ardern and Robertson at 38% so far. $525,000 in Sep 2017 and $725,000 now.

Either that, or, surely not, our dear leaders and their senior bureaucrats are, er, not quite as clever as they claim. Of course that can't be right because they are actually quite well paid.
This year taxpayers will pay $62 million in salaries for the 140 public sector CEOs. The average is paid $443,000, and 53 earn more than the Prime Minister.
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/ceo_rich_list

Am I naive in thinking - surely Jacinda must do something? Even if she wants ponzi to continue she is left winged after all, does she want to go down in history as the PM that only wants status quo? I guess power really does corrupt the kindest people.

I'll tell you one thing. You go to your lawyer about buying a property in Christchurch and tell them your upper limit is $500k, they'll tell you to try and get more. That price is at the top end of the bracket with the most competition between FHB's and investors, so the prices being bandied around are even more inflated. Plus, banks tend to not lend for above what they believe is the real value, so no putting your hand up for $480 on a $420 RV house unless you pay to get a "special valuation". And, buying in that bracket your quality/$ ratio is poor. That is, the house you bought for $500k isn't worth that. It might not even be worth $400k. You're just paying a premium for housing being a "top-performing" asset class for investors. OK. That was more than one thing.

Not surprising. with the house inflation. RBNZ should have implemented a tier system for loans by banks. Businesses should get cheaper loans than people housing loans. No wonder the savers are penalized for subsidising all the cheap loans to house buyers. RBNZ will regret when the social system breaks down with more people becoming dependent on State hand-outs.

Not surprising. with the house inflation. RBNZ should have implemented a tier system for loans by banks. Businesses should get cheaper loans than people with housing loans. No wonder the savers are penalized for subsidising all the cheap loans to house buyers. RBNZ will regret when the social system breaks down with more people becoming dependent on State hand-outs.

Serious question for Kiwis in NZ: Why do you believe your houses to be worth so much?

Serious answer. Its the same with everything its only worth whatever someone else is prepared to pay for it. Sales 101 price your goods & services at what others will pay for it.