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The national median house price increased by $24,000 last month

The national median house price increased by $24,000 last month

The housing market ended spring firmly in boom mode, with the number of sales hitting their highest level for any month of the year since March 2007.

According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, 9885 residential properties were sold in November, up 29.6% compared to November last year.

That was the highest number of sales in the month of November since 2006, which was in the thick of a major property boom.

The market was particularly strong in Auckland, where 3728 residential properties were sold, up a whopping 53.9% on November last year, giving the region its best November sales ever.

After Auckland the biggest annual percentage increases in sales were on the West Coast +74.4%, Northland +36.1%, Canterbury +31.7%, Bay of Plenty +29.5%, Nelson +25.8% and Waikato +21.9%.

Only three regions recorded lower sales compared to November last year - Marlborough -5.3%, Gisborne -4.3% and Hawke's Bay -1.8% (see the interactive chart below for the full regional trends).

Prices were also setting new records, with the national median selling price increasing from $725,000 in October to $749,000 in November, up by $24,000 in a month.

That means the national median price rose 18.5% year-on-year.

Around the country record median prices were set in 11 regions - Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Taranaki, Manawatu/Whanganui, Wellington, Marlborough, Nelson, Tasman, Canterbury and Southland.

In Auckland the median price hit $1,030,000, up $30,000 in a month and up by $145,000 (16.4%) since November last year (see the second interactive chart below for the full regional price trends).

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Volumes sold - REINZ

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NZ total
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Northland
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Auckland
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Waikato
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Bay of Plenty
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Gisborne
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Hawke's Bay
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Manawatu
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Taranaki
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Wellington
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Tasman
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Nelson
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Marlborough
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West Coast
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Canterbury
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Otago
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Southland
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Median price - REINZ

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NZ total
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Northland
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Auckland
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Waikato
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Bay of Plenty
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Gisborne
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Hawke's Bay
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Manawatu
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Taranaki
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Wellington
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Tasman
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Nelson
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Marlborough
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West Coast
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Canterbury
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Otago
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Southland
Source: REINZ

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224 Comments

So much for all the stories of impending doom and gloom at the beginning of 2020.......

The NZ housing market is alive and well!

TTP

97
up

This is doom and gloom for us young folk. The end of the dream of a life in NZ.

62
up

Do not even bother, some do not even grasp the huge problem NZ is facing with housing hyperinflation as long as they feel the "wealth effect".

b21
I agree that this is of concern and is unsustainable and worrying.
However, all that weekly analysis of your auction results and comments about an ongoing drop in clearance rates has shown to be inconsistent to what is happening to the market. It just goes to show that your analysis was faulted in that it has a selective bias in trying to show that the market is slowing.

No, what you do not understand is that the data presented in this article belongs to past activity, on the other hand the other data is an early indicator. Why do I bother?

Here's what I'm thinking and seems to be a common theme among those who are/were property investors:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/RCPxxHOUJhas5dZfI-tn04TluniRCSJL...

IO
No.
It is just that some comment on the realities of what is happening.
However, unfortunately it seems that the false hope of your bubble burst claim that you have trotted out for over 5 years now means that you are now simply reduced only to slagging off those who comment on the reality. Really a sad situation.
How about now trying to be realistic and constructive for a change?

'Really sad situation' - see the signs to look out for with NPD.

Did you bully people in the work place as well if they had views that didn't fit with your self interested paradigm?

Interesting, now you are telling people what they should think too.

It certainly is. Yet there is still so little knowledge among the general public. In a fairly narcissistic society that gives mostly lip service to mental health, encouraging awareness and engagement is very slow and difficult.

b21
You do make me chuckle and smile.
Your selective data has been showing consistent decline in auction success for the past 16 weeks now - this falls well in the later part of that decline.
As I - and others - have said all along is that your analysis was faulted due to your bias.
However, I do agree with your comment "Why do I bother?"

Just to clarify, I meant with you. Not sure if you still would agree with that.

“This is the way” - Orracle

21
up

Yep i suggest the youngest and brightest go West to the big sand dune.

28
up

there is no future for us here. my six cousins have all shifted to Aus in the last decade, they're now homeowners and earn far more than they ever could in NZ. I think I might have to join them in a few years.

17
up

No no you cant do that ..the Boomers need your tax to pay Gold Cards and Super - plus receive your rent which will pay for the Cruise Liner trip or another purchase of a rental unit.

I agree.

Hang in there, rent controls are on the way. Once implemented, the frenzy will cease and young people will be able to save more for a deposit, plus, when entering the market for the lower quartile homes, young/FHBs will find little competition from buy-to-let property investors.

22
up

The damage is already done. There is no future for the next generation. New Zealand eats it's young.

What no Hashtag ?

If rent control is justifiable, then it is just as justifiable for NZ government to confiscate all houses and then distribute them in a lottery to everyone.

What a stupid analogy

Why? because you do not like it? rent control is transferring ownership to tenants anyway, unless it is a short term measure. I do not think Kate version is short term.

No because its a stupid analogy. Rent control is regulating rent inflation, which has been used in the past. Trying to analogise the government confiscating your house with implementing rent control is scaremongering at best.

You are a smart commentator but there is no evidence I can see that suggests New Zealand will implement rent controls. This country is miles away from any centre left sensibility. It has a proud colonial tradition of grab, keep and grab more. Wellington is eating itself. A dead city within 10 years.

Repeated

86 likes. A record?

86-4. A thrashing.

That's about the ratio of strugglers to wealthy people, surely not a coincidence

87 now ;)
Also been looking at opportunities and countries to move to recently.

33
up

I look at that exponential graph and would consider the housing market to be sick but then I guess I’m looking at it from a social perspective not a financial one.

Finances belong to the same reality where we live last time I checked, so unfortunately this has repercussions. Also, including housing into the finance sector is quite a creative choice.

13
up

But in the end they are one and the same. 'Finance and the good society' by Robert Shiller is a good read on this topic. We should be using finance to make our societies better, not worse - and the current monetary and fiscal policies/mandates are making society worse. Its dumb, dumb, dumb.

10
up

Yeah this is pretty gloomy from my POV

16
up

Zero empathy or understanding of other people's situations. Typical.

14
up

Classic signs from another property investors with narcissistic personality disorder...it seems to be a common trait.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/RCPxxHOUJhas5dZfI-tn04TluniRCSJL...

13
up

I'd add Land Rover ownership to that list

Yip...

This is so true!

Throw in a lot of lawyers on that list too.

35
up

Ok Mr Orr, now you have your inflation, how about increasing interest rates.

A. No, housing doesn’t count.

Right-o, just asking.

15
up

Haha, yeah. Imagine Orr's response if bread prices started doubling over a short period of time. "Can we exclude bread from the CPI to pls kthxbye"

15
up

The market is 'alive and well'? You pretend otherwise, but you clearly don't care about how this affects the people.

"To live his life in his own way, to call his house his castle, to enjoy the fruits of his own labour, to educate his children as his conscience directs, to save for their prosperity after his death --- these are wishes deeply ingrained in civilised man. Their realization is almost as necessary to our virtues as to our happiness. From their total frustration disastrous results both moral and psychological might follow." - C. S. Lewis

Pearls before swine my friend

10
up

Doom and gloom does not happen at a point of time, it's happens in a period of time. How long is the period? No one knows. If price keep rising like this, it will come sooner. When it comes, you probably don't even know how did it happen. Trust me! It won't come for same reasons as previous ones. I don't know you choose not to see this coming or you just purposely try to be bias. This will hurt everyone. I don't know why you are still thinking NZ housing market is alive and well. Even economics are saying there are so much risk ahead.

NZ is a meth user's paradise .. gangs are out of control now. Many people expect to be burglarized these days.

I don't feel safe in NZ society.

28
up

Congratulations to our banking system. Also investors are doing great these days and seem to be offloading as much as they can, unfortunately many buyers will sadly regret getting into an overheated market, over-leveraged and pushed by a negative buyers environment created by the RB. Hopefully the responsible ones will be held accountable for this mess.

>Also investors are doing great these days and seem to be offloading as much as they can

Please provide the evidence to backup this assertion. It seems to conflict with the RBNZ data which shows investor buying is booming.

Hi Pragmatist,

That's an accurate and pertinent observation.

Unfortunately, there are certain people who come here intent upon misleading and deceiving others.

TTP

Pragmatist
You are correct RBNZ data shows investors are buying (currently 17% of new mortgages) and this has been fairly consistent post-Covid although a very slight drop last month.
Supporting this was Tony Alexander's (yeah, blah, yeah) latest December survey of real estate agents in which shows:
- "A net 45% of agents have reported that they are seeing more investors in the market" and
- In response to the question as to whether more or fewer investors are bringing properties to the market a net 7% said fewer are bringing properties to the market.
Unfortunately I think it is just that B21 has a bias that getting in the way of being objective. :)

Investor buying and selling are two different things but you guys pretend you ignore this to mislead other people. The same as there are different kinds of investors, those with experience and smart enough to understand this is the best moment to sell and those who they are just trying to give it a try now, from which I know a few of each type. The same dynamics is happening right now in other asset bubbles such as the stock market.

b21
So as previously asked - what is a source to back up your assertion?
It just seems simply wishful speculation on your part which has more than a tendency to be wrong.

Still not seeing you provide any data to backup your assertion.

Please read my comment above. Guys please provide some actual data if you are to support your own opposite speculation and asking the rest to do the same, otherwise I'd assume you are just trying to mislead people with your comments mentioning unrelated data.

b21
You have been referred to the RBNZ mortgage data which you dismiss as not being relevant.
However, also I have referred you to the results of a survey of REA who would be in a position to know.
Bottom line: supporting information to the contrary has been provided which I have no problem you challenging, whereas you made the speculative assertion and have not backed that up with any supporting information at all.

28
up

Since both Govt and RBNZ signaled that they'd rather have increasing house prices, I'm now confident that there won't be a big correction. And if there is one, RBNZ and Govt will do *everything* to save the asses of overleveraged investors and owner occupiers.
It's such a shame that by the time I saved enough money to be able to even consider buying, prices have reached astronomical levels. For $1 million NZD, you can get a luxurious penthouse apt in most European capitals, or a modern villa in most decent sized cities of Europe. Here, you get a moldy, uninsulated, half-rotten shack that rattles in the wind. Peak prosperity.

That's why they added extra wellbeing to the budgets. Not just about being rich, its about feeling good that hard working landlords are finally getting the gains that they worked so hard for.

Yes, but we also have a somewhat functioning democracy, we're covid-19 free, and we 'look' green and beautiful. We're isolated from many of the geopolitical threats many overseas countries are subject to. We have subsidised healthcare. A plot of land in NZ is more than just a plot of land to many people, and rightly or wrongly this has had a massive impact on the cost of living here.

10
up

None of those factors are having a massive impact, this is all about access to cheap credit and nothing more.

CJ
You seem to be now talking a bit of sense;
"Since both Govt and RBNZ signaled that they'd rather have increasing house prices, I'm now confident that there won't be a big correction. And if there is one, RBNZ and Govt will do *everything* to save . . . "
However you ended up losing it a bit at the end though, seemingly probably you couldn't entirely help yourself.
But well done. :)

Yes master, I apologise master. I'll try to do better next time, master, so that you can be proud of me!

Yes, what our PM doesn't seem to realize is that every time she mentions their desire of small price increases she's throwing under the bus all families that voted for her that already cannot afford proper accommodation, since they are basically saying we'd do anything to support this madness. I really hope she can open her eyes soon or else Labour will have become just another flavor of National.

"For $1 million NZD, you can get a luxurious penthouse apt in most European capitals,"

Cj
So our luxurious apartments are cheap by that standard I would think you could get a good one for half to three qtrs of a mill. But you are intent on comparing dissimilar items. I would like to see the price of a European house with a chunk of land.

"For $1 million NZD, you can get a luxurious penthouse apt in most European capitals,

No you can't, you're a fantasist who's probably never left NZ. https://www.residences-immobilier.com/en/75/annonce-vente-appartement-pa.... Well over $20m with tax and not even in the more desirable arondisement.

Telling people that there is going to be crash and that they should avoid the market because of it should be held accountable as well. There hasn't even been a "Crash" sure prices level off and occasionally dip but never crash. NZ has too may things that are always going to help keep prices up and that is never going to change. Holding off waiting for a crash that is never going to happen is just as stupid!

b21, in the face of having been blatantly wrong with your previous predictions of house price declines, you STILL make the same predictions. Let it go, just admit you have been wrong and accept reality

32
up

If this is what passes for an RBNZ fostered economic recovery, we are going to be sorely disappointed.
Asset bubbles never end well.

All we need now is for Grant Robertson to say that they have conquered the business cycle.. Gordon Brown paved the way !
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/sep/11/gordonbrown.economy

Pretty sure Zollner (ANZ) posted a link showing everything going through the floor lending/credit creation wise for productive output (business lending), while lending on residential property stayed elevated. Going to be an interesting combination.

Adrian Brr goes brrrrrrrrrr

31
up

Can someone ask the PM if this qualifies as her desired 'small increase'?

19
up

If it sticks to 24k a month, then in a few years the %increase that represents will be small enough that I am sure she would claim success.

*Concerned frown, nod, and smile*

16
up

She’ll probably say ‘well on a global scale they are small increases’ then give you the puppy dog frown.

My dog does that puppy dog frown when he knows he's been naughty. But he also knows he'll eventually be forgiven and rewarded with biscuits and cuddles.

Someone should ask her what is their plan compensate the past few months to bring the YOY inflation back to a 'small increase'.

Not defending JA, but she directly said she did not want to see the increases that we are seeing of ~20%. This data relates to last month. JA made her 'small increase' comment this month.
So, asking your question to the PM would be terrible journalism. Instead we need to put pressure on her to give renters more security through rent controls, advancing rent-to-buy schemes, and taxing the sales of investment properties to pay for builds for those who cannot afford to feed themselves week to week because of the situation the 'haves' have created for the 'have nots'.

I'm as frustrated as any FHB. This situation is a ponzi. But getting catty doesn't help. Support renters united. Protest outside parliament. Send emails to your MP.

11
up

Stopping the Ponzi should be the goal, not additional schemes to get people into buying at inflated prices.

10
up

Yep, #rentcontrolnow.

10
up

The rent control concept is growing on me.
In lieu of any solutions for home ownership, the least we can do is make renting a more humane option.

Just been hearing about bamboo, grows meters in a matter of days... the effect is startling but its all effect and no substance.

It absolutely helps me feel better :) But there is a valid political question: At what point do we decide more urgent intervention is required? There was no political mandate for firearms reform prior to March 15 but it still happened because it was necessary. How much is too much?

No let up in sales and prices rises.
None expected prior to February 18th, so will not show up until March REINZ report.
Why February? Lots of reasons but not elaborating previous points right now.
The HPI report from REINZ by the way, which all Agents get, shows this for Auckland:

Up 6% in last 5 years. 16.2% in last 12 months
So, we are frequently told (Yvil) that Auckland prices double every decade.
That requires prices to rise 94% from November 2020 to October 2025.
Good luck with that one
Rise in HPI for Auckland in last 3 months is 8.9% (annualised, if that is appropriate for a quarter figure, would equate to 35.6% annual rise. Does anyone consider that sustainable?

24
up

Apart from the data, whether we consider this sustainable from a purely economical perspective, we also have to think if as a society this is sustainable from a moral point of view and whether we should allow housing as an investment as long as some families have no access to proper healthy accommodation.
The utter lack of moral remorse and empathy displayed by some players in the housing scheme it is just something we should stop, the same way we do not allow bullies, or rapists in our society, we should not allow anybody to take advantage of the position of power that their own wealth, whatever means they got it from, gives them over other people.

15
up

Dealing with property investors I've noted a high correlation with narcissistic personality disorder. Here's what to look out for:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/Tr6bauofmWaCc97_4KB6hX6BSeVRglg-...

It's impossible to have a rational conversation with them on the topic as they believe they are entitled to have whatever they want, even at other peoples expense. Then if you call them out on it, they actually believe that you are jealous or envious of them (I've seen this card played so many times in conversations and this website..) They appear to have a paradigm of 'profits' and not 'people', a lens which they see the world which distorts their ability to have empathy towards others.

Spot on.

This is not a diagnostic tool, but rather helpful nonetheless:

A Narcissists Prayer

That didn't happen.

And if it did, it wasn't that bad.

And if it was, that's not a big deal.

And if it is, that's not my fault.

And if it was, I didn't mean it.

And if I did...

You deserved it.

b21...here is where I lay blame for this fiasco, in order of culpability.
First, the bungling bureaucrats (Adern, Woods, Robertson, Orr etc)
Second, the pornographic media (NZ Herald, One Roof, REINZ, Century 21 and even the TV networks)
Third, the guns for hire or pernicious "experts"and commentators with vested interests (Tony A, Ashley Church, Derryn Mayne, Bindi, Mike the mouth) Fourth, the property investors who are really just doing what, for most, comes naturally; putting themselves and their family first.

This question, and other variations on it, are exactly the kind of questions that should be continually put to Ardern. She maintains a persona of kindness and caring towards others - questions like this directly attack that, which is very important for her to maintain. This is far more likely to elicit a real response.

Most of those HPI numbers are available to all:
https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/November/RE...

Auckland HPI hit another all time high of 3393. Up 2.6% in the last month.

The index graph on page 4 is insane. If I were a central banker or retail bank executive, I'd be shitting my pants looking at that.

'to infinity and beyond!'

11
up

It's like TSLA shares. Everybody knows it's insane, nobody in their right mind thinks the company is worth that much. Yet everybody knows there's a bigger fool out there and people will keep buying to make a profit.
Too bad that access to housing is a basic human need, whereas owning TSLA shares is not.

'The Big Short' (Burry) guy has taken a big short on TSLA by the way....and apologised to Musk I think in doing so...

But if you don't own TSLA shares how do you keep up with the deposit requirement for a house? /s

Haha true - the tesla chart and REINZ chart are looking highly correlated right now...

Stick to being a RE Mike, your math sucks.

18
up

Cha Ching...thanks to all who voted Labour, hope you did'nt vote them in thinking they would narrow the gap between the rich and poor.

Yes, being a National voter I am glad Labour won because we know they are a party about image, words and kindness, not action.

I have come to realise that Labour will be sitting on the fence (probably for their entire term) - Mr Orr is blaming Govt and the Govt is blaming Mr Orr. I think I have become an 'anti-woker'.

Labour has never been the "woke" party.

Kylo Ren/NZ investor class"mORR,mORR,mORR"...

A few comparisons for statistically minded:

July-Sept sales in Auckland 2013: 11,651. In 2020: 10,666 (- 8.4%)
Auckland City same dates: - 22%
Waitakere City: + 22%
Rodney District: + 38%
Trend is away from centre. CV19 accentuates this.

4 year sales blocks for Auckland (total sales) (year starting Dec of each year and ending in November each year)

2000-04: 182,981
2004-08: 170,045
2008-12: 128,626
2012-16: 169,130
2016-20: 139,145 (provision estimate)

That is an annual average sales total of 39,496 pa.
In 12m to November 2020 Toal Auckland sales were 36,251
In prev year they were 31,747 (so this year sales up 14.18%)
In 2014-15 total sales were 46,879, meaning this year is 22.6% below sales total of 5 years ago.

Last 4 year sale are 17.7% lower than previous 4 years.

Looking at sales over 12 months is not representative, as they are cyclical, as they show large scale flow of supply and demand and crucial variable of interest rates. Interest rates are about half of what they were in 2015, yet sales are lower.

Mike, you have been crowding the comments section with endless data for about 2 years to help support your numerous predictions of house price drops. It's clearly not working, why not give it a rest?

11
up

At what stage does the RBNZ start to think about the bubble that is growing and what it means for those who bought at the top of the market.

I'm hearing that the banks are starting to feel very nervous that the housing market is overheating and many investors may have paid too much relative to the rents they will receive (especially with low immigration and no sign of new overseas students for at least another year) they fear there may be an oversupply of rentals with new developments completing in the next six months.This is why the banks have been enthusiastic not to wait for the RBNZ to reimpose LVR's- they are highly concerned that investors may default and will want buffer if they need to force sales.

As the RBNZ continues to lower rates in order to stimulate the economy and specifically inflation and employment - there are a number of economists calling to to reassess Global Reserve Bank’s 2-3% inflation target. Weak consumer demand, demographic change and global competition might have created a new normal, meaning a target of 1-3% or even 0-3% might be more realistic.

Economists tend to dislike a zero inflation target because of the risk of missing and bringing on deflation, but inflation volatility has been low enough in recent years to make 1-3% target pretty safe and to stop us running to the bank each time things look weak.

Anyone see that cartoon of the trolley problem, but instead of choosing whether to divert to run over one person or stay on course to run over three you just have to watch as it plows through an endless line of people? This seems to be what the RBNZ, and the Government through their total inaction on fiscal policy, are subjecting young and lower/median income people to.

Yip - it was a common one every time I attended a leadership/management/personal development training courses....the reserve bank are just following their 'mandate', but their mandate is stupid. Central banks are running out of good ideas and if they don't have a new mandate soon, it worries me how much damage they are going to do society.

We are all too tired to riot.

20
up

I wonder if Jacinda can tell us some more fairy tales about"sustained moderation" and "incomes keeping up" and "relentless positivity".

Why is Jacinda busying herself answering questions about Santa? Why is nobody being held accountable? Why are there not riots?

Did anyone actually get a payrise this year?

Hi theglc,

Secondary school teachers head a small average pay rise of 3% but we had to march on the streets for it. Lucky we have a powerful union, other public sectors have no such support.

Everyone on minimal wages did. Actually by 1st April 2021 someone on minimum wages would have had a wage increase of 29% in 4 years from $15.50/hour to $20.00

Apathy.
Also, when people can cram in to rental properties and pay *only* 30-40 % of their income on rent, they can have some sort of life.
This crisis kills aspiration and future financial wellbeing, but it doesn't kill people (well at least not directly)

22
up

I'm ready to riot. Actually feeling so mad i would gladly cause property damage, to get our voices heard. Just waiting for a charismatic leader to pop up to lead us to victory...... But seriously, I follow some pretty left-wing pages, and some of the conversations on there are becoming increasingly violent, romanticizing the french revolution, "eat the rich" and so on. These statistics are fanning that flame, increasing wealth inequality will do that.

18
up

Out with the phoney and her government!!!

11
up

Its a dangerous game that central banks and government is playing - allowing such distortions in wealth to be created. History shows when this happen and at the same time as debt levels are very high, the risk of war rises dramatically (civil or external). People are tolerant to a point...but if you push them too far society and the rules that govern it can breakdown rapidly.

If enough people feel they are getting screwed by the 'system', they will either peaceful vote for change and it will be made, or they will become violent. I fear that quite a lot who are doing it easy miss the suffering that is taking place by a large part of our society right now.

With our media giving barely any voice to this, hardly putting any real pressure on our government save a few articles that quickly disappear from the top - the likelihood of this anger and frustration that is building becoming quite violent when it eventually surfaces, continues to increase.

the media are a big part of the problem.

Over half this country voted for Labour so they are clearly loving it. By a rough calculation based on "Thumbs ups" for the past year about 80% of the people on here were yelling and jumping for joy that Labour were in government so how can things suddenly change so quickly just a few months of them getting back in ? Did you all get sucked in somehow ? I'm really confused are they somehow not delivering on their promises....again.

Many of us told them that voting for Labour was just going to cause more of the same, if not worse. Everyone needed to vote very different if they wanted to send a message. Barely anybody did, they all voted for the status quo and expected something different. Delusional thinking.

You all made your bed, lie in it. The rest of us may just leave... I have literally encouraged 2 young people (one who graduated yesterday, another 24 yo) today to get out of here as fast as possible. One said they were already thinking about it (the 24yo), the other was yet to think so much about their future, but could see what we were talking about. Why on earth should young people stay? Especially when just across the ditch is a country with much cheaper house prices and much greater oppourtunity that you don't need a visa in to work. If you are young and want a decent chance at life, that has all but disappeared in this country. I guess we should use our COVID capital as much as we can because when things open back up again...

I've seen some great ideas on how to correct house prices but all require the government or reserve bank to act. Both are refusing to do anything to fix the mess we're in, so the only way to enable change is by those negatively affected making it happen. A strike on paying rent would have a direct effect on house prices with no government intervention required. Zero/lower future cash flows = lower asset price

That type of action looks like a real possibility in the US. The Federal ban on evictions for non-payment of rent ends 31 December 2020;

https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/emergency-bans-on-evictions-and-...

I haven't heard of any extension.

As a retiree, with a couple of large term deposits expiring early next year, I'm left in a position where I will be damned if keep my $'s in the bank for 1%. I've already figured out a good hiding place for it. I wonder if I have to send a letter to the IRD saying that for the next 20 or so years I will be buying everything with cash, but please don't worry - I'm not laundering money?

Went through our assets with a mortgage broker this week, when I mentioned that we have a few thousand in cash, she was horrified. First she thought I was talking about a cash account. No, I said physical cash. I had to repeat it again. Not sure why she was so surprised by it...

CourtJester - I 'hear you'. Very little is being said about what low interest rates are doing for retirees. I know I could go out and buy an investment property, but I see the risk (coming).

.

Posidividy man, get it right!

Agreed, haven't heard that little beauty from Kachinga lately.

And I'm still processing how quickly she got off the stage from Monday's press conference where she said she wants small increases.

Her little parting quip about why Kiwis turn to the housing market was the epitome of cowardice. Just had to have the last word and dig the knife in.

She's a total hypocrite.

Still, fellow readers, no one has riddled me how over half the population believe her and are in total denial of her lies in the face of bare faced facts and figures.

Like I asked in a previous post... did they put something in the water? (My place is on tank water).

Ditto, really can't understand why young and disenfranchised NZ aren't organizing. My guess is they just plan to leave or mum and dad own enough that they know they'll be ok down the track.

The shock of this new turn might last for quite sometime. Many knew how bad things were before, yet believed that surely something will have to be done, now that so many have well and truly been thrown overboard. I don't think it has quite sunk in yet, that this government has no intention of genuinely helping them - they not only wanted to maintain the previous status quo, but will cheerfully oversee our transition into something far worse. There is little enough coverage to inform, and without representation in the media they are left feeling quite isolated. Hopefully by the end of next year it should be very clear to all and it won't matter how little our media reflects this growing sentiment. People will start demanding to be heard, one way or another.

I was in Hong Kong at the height of the protests and what was hardly reported in the media was that a lot of the movement was born of hopelessness to get ahead due to house prices and lack of opportunity. They had the phrase " If we burn. you'll burn with us". This was aimed squarely at the landed gentry and already secure middle classes. They stalled the economy, cancelled tourism and drove away business and investment from sheer frustration. Of course western media only reported it as all about democracy.

Thank you for mentioning this. I remember reading about it and do not find it surprising at all. Having those needs met are naturally going to be the fundamental concern, because without such basics in life, democracy is already dead for them. I would rather see people begin to protest and even riot in this country demanding change, the likely alternative is the rise of another more dangerous leader. Ardern is false, the damage she is doing is immense. If the rising discontent she keeps ignoring does not find a productive outlet, history tells us it will likely lead to the election of something far worse in the future.

Probably like me, ie figured National hadn't performed and thought of Labour's covid response. Fool me once - i can't stand reading or listening to any local media these days. Anyone out there interested in starting a 'what about the rest of us' party?

15
up

I bought a 1.2m investment. I pay interest only @470pw. The rent I get is $880. I get $410pw + capital gain over time. This system, even though I may be benefiting, is indeed broken. I don't consider myself wealthy at all.

This is not to brag, just highlighting how ridiculous this whole thing is.

11
up

Is the example above a symptom of responsible RBNZ regulatory oversight?:

Banks extending 60 % of their lending to one third of already wealthy households to speculate in the residential property market because the RBNZ offers them an RWA capital reduction incentive, to do so.

Or this:
RBNZ cutting OCR in half five times since July 2008, causing the rich to capitalise rising discounted present values of future asset cash flows.

Definitely not responsible but operable for investors.

Government picking winners.

Y

3.7% yield, I'm guessing this isn't in Auckland. Out of interest, do you intend ever paying down the loan? If so, that will take decades. Just wondering if you are forecasting hyperinflation or negative interest rates to help with this?

I'm not paying it off one bit via interest only. I'd be silly to. After a few years I'll sell it and earn a healthy profit. I haven't settled on the house yet and I already have people asking me if I would sell it for 100k more than I paid.

It's a ridiculous situation. But you make hay while the sun shines.

Yes it is in Auckland in a new subdivision.

How confident are you that you'll get $880 in rent?
That's what you'll pay for a 4-bedroom villa in the inner suburbs.

Very. Let me just say I'm not losing sleep. You don't need to be in the inner suburbs to get that rent for a brand new house where the beach is 5 mins drive away with new schools. There are 5 beddies being rented out for a grand.

Yes, and this is the point that many that are making a lot of money under this present system seem to miss, ie that just because you can make money doing what you are doing, does not make it good for the long term health of the country.

Yes, it may be legal, but we all know that the law can be an ass.

There is such an irony in that a Climate Emergency has been declared due to how humans are wasting natural resources and how unsustainable it all is, yet approx. 50% of our housing price is non-value-added cost ie waste, which to service we have to use up to twice the human capital than we need to.

I agree with you.

I guess if I'm not earning the dosh there are 1000s waiting to take my place.

Let's face it, govt has no guts to do anything and we are in it too deep.

18
up

Great news for our house which will soon be "worth" double its CV.

Bad news for NZ as a whole, we actually need a credit crunch and rising interest rates to sort this mess out. And once all the zombie companies start actually defaulting we may actually see that happen. Although one suspects that governments will try to socialise those losses.

The mad rush to print money and keep interest rates rock bottom has never been a viable solution.

This is not a housing "market", it is artificial, a bubble. Everyone knows that.

Good luck to those buying at the moment, I suspect you may need it..

Zoombie companies in China ARE defaulting but none of finance press thinks this is a problem. Watch this space

Millennial's. "Yay! We got a young PM like us! But we got no where to live?
Mum & Dad are 'winning' with a capital gain! But not enough they say to pay off their mortgages. But we'll solve Climate Change!" And that is where NZs priorities are today?

10
up

Wow... the audacity. You still managed to blame millennials for this situation, that's just incredible.
Jacinda is ignoring the housing crisis precisely because of the boomer voter base.

13
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Still Jacinda Arden is silent

Coworker of mine who lives from paycheck to paycheck. First to panic if there's a 1 day delay in the bank transfer. She has her own house (bought by ex-husband a decade ago) but still struggles to make ends meet. I asked her about Jacinda's stance on house prices, and she agrees with it. She said "I'm like the least selfish person I know, and even I wouldn't want house prices to fall. Because if they do, the money I already paid back is just *gone*!"
Financial illiteracy much? Mind you, she's probably paying back half of a 300-400k mortgage on a house that's now worth 1.2 million. She feels rich because of her house's virtual price, even though she has zero savings and can't even get her car fixed.

thats the irony of the situation and why the RBNZ makes no sense - and why a number of economists question the RBNZ stance on the "wealth effect".

Just becasue an asset has increased in value it only creates disposable income if it generates a revenue that exceeds expenses or it is sold.
If the asset is the family home - it will do neither.

For those entering the housing market or upgrading, unless wages rise then increasing asset values actually reduces disposable income - resulting in less money to circulate within the economy. Afterall a mortgage is really forced savings (bought forward) and rent (in the form of interest) paid on those savings.

There is a real risk that without wages growth - consumption could become stagnant or drop if disposable incomes are eroded by higher housing costs- that has a huge potential to create a recession and burst the asset bubble.

People who talk about the wealth effect unironically should be asked which one's better:
95% of the population spending $100 pw more, or 5% spending $1000 pw more?
Even if the latter was $2000pw, or $5000pw, is it really good for the people in general?
But I guess talking about morals and a holistic view is pretty much pointless when the RBNZ has a single, laser focused goal in mind: 2% CPI.

The sad thing is both she and the government or RBNZ can not control the housing price. At the moment, they are trying to. But is it controllable? What did Jacinda say? She is expecting to see small increases for housing price. Is it happening at the moment? No. She has been in government for more than 4 years and she failed to control it. How about RBNZ? They were expecting housing price to fall 8%-9% early this year. Did it happen? No. You see my points? Don't put expectation on government and RBNZ to control the housing price, because they just can't. Those people who see government and RBNZ are helping home owner to push the price up need to wake up. Do they pushing the housing price up? Yes indeed. Is housing price controlled by them? Absolutely not and they can not. So investing in houses at your own risk. Any investments have risk involved especially when you borrow huge amount of money investing into something. You should know the risk first and then go ahead with it.

While I agree the RBNZ can't *control* the housing market, they can at the very least significantly influence it by their actions

Yes indeed they can significantly influence the housing market by their actions. But people need to distinguish "influence" from "control". There are some narratives saying housing price can only go up because government and RBNZ are using whatever they have to pushing the price up, which is not true at all.There will be a time that they wont be able to do anything about it when the housing price starts to fall.

Will that be when they drop from ten million to nine million?

"The housing market ended spring firmly in boom mode, with the number of sales hitting their highest level for any month of the year since March 2007"... Well we all know what happened after that don't we... Dejavu?

Yes we do Adam, house prices reduced by a small 8% in value

3% to 4% rise oer month after 20% to 40% rise........

Mr Orr and Mr Robertson.....

13
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So I am a little bit richer and screw the next generation. It is a bit sick cheering for this madness. As much selfish as you can be but we all know when the gap between the rich & the poor are widen, violence is just waiting for its due :(

cannot agree more.

Adrian has written to Fat Controller. adrian-orr-says-new-agency-needed-to-fix-housing-crisis

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300181148/adrian-orr-says-new-...

For goodness sake - they just established a new agency to coordinate all-of-government response to housing - it's called Kāinga Ora.

Only way for government to go is #rentcontrolnow.

Haha, what an ignoramus he is. Scary.
Or was he trying to make a point that KO aren't up to it

12
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I have a year 10 and year 8 kid and I can see no future in NZ for them. My plan is to move to Australia as soon as they are finished school. They also have a property bubble, but its not as bad as NZ and the wages are higher.

Both Labour and National have failed there voters by filling councils with bureaucrats and making the consenting process so difficult. This is the result - a dysfunctional society of baby boomer's that just don't care. Who cares about the youth and tomorrow? All that is important to baby boomers is that they still have the audi, the batch and boat, the 6 rentals and their home in Mission Bay. Disgusting really. . . .

Same with me. I have a boy of 11 years old. Cannot imagine how he could afford a house by himself ten years later.

Why would he want a house by himself when he's 21?

An anecdotal story from work. Staff member looking to buy in Hamilton and surrounds. House advertised for $660k. They put in an offer of $680k. 27 offers on the house. The "winner" paid $760k.

True story... earlier this week I put an offer on an old dump rv$440k and I offered $527k which was the lowest of 7 offers, the winning price being $609k. I was going to increase density and titles. Anyway not sure if an investor or who bought it but the roof, all gib ceilings, flooring, kitchen, bathroom and wiring needed replacing plus the corner shakers were rotten necessitating repairing framing and boxing them in. The neighbour had a lovely collection of about 6 burned out cars front and back. $600k for all that.

16
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the house next door to me is owned by an overseas landlord who has never even been to New Zealand. Yesterday I heard that is going on the market at roughly 40% more than it was bought for 2 years ago. I presume it will sell.
My question is; who are winners and losers in this situation.

Winners
Chinese landlord who gets at potentially tax free profit on his low interest loan in china.
Banker making the new mortgage in NZ to new owner.

Losers
NZ economy - loss of lump sum profit
House buyer
Tax payer
Rate payer
Just about everybody

Is this what we do now? Prop up banks and overseas investors and squash New Zealanders?

11
up

That was National's dream by deciding there was no requirement for a foreign buyer ban and if you argued for one you were xenophobic.

It won't be tax-free as they will be subject to the bright line test.

Good luck collecting that in China?

True....

14
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Young folks in NZ, it is the time to leave this country now~~ ~ No need to believe RBNZ and this government anymore.

I'm tempted to take the opposite approach: Swallow as much debt as I can, buy the biggest house I can afford in a nicer area and know that I'm never going to allowed to fail as long as I tie up all my money in my house.

"Wealth effect" actually increasingly means impoverishment for a large number of New Zealanders. Wealth is not being created by low interest rates, it is being transferred to those who own assets.

How many people moaning about house price increases in New Zealand currently voted for Labour? Jacinda will do nothing about the current problem as she loves power more than doing what is needed to sort out an ever growing trend.

To answer your question- plenty.
Simply put, more should have voted for Greens if they wanted change.

I didn't see much in the Greens policies that would have addressed the supply side of this crisis. It seemed to me TOP had the most complete approach.

I made the mistake of voting for her in 2017. Labour told a lot of lies about what they were going to do and they got the benefit of the doubt.

Didn't make the same mistake in 2020. It's now very clear the kind of vile creature that Jacinda really is.

I am exactly the same.

You too.

But I still cannot understand why... why did people believe her and her promises? Honest question, no judgment intended. Can you please help me understand what it was about her that had the voters spellbound? OK this time we had to keep the greens out but in 2017... why? Her promises were impossible.

They voted for her as COVID was the main issue, or rather she made it the main issue in the election. Even farmers voted for Labour and plenty of them. Labour hardly talked about house prices and poverty. People were happy to be alive as after all we were looking at tens of thousands of deaths. She saved us so let’s vote for that lovely lady.

Mainly because National were awful, and at the time I didn't fancy other alternatives.
I thought Labour had some good policies, and still do.
But their appetite for change has fallen away.

Same here. Not again.

Your honesty redeems you.

16
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Ok Here is the future. Once covid has gone, lots of young kiwis upsticks and move to Aussie or elsewhere where it is easier to get on the property ladder. But don't worry they will be replaced by a load of immigrants from developing countries who are not put off by having no immediate prospects of getting on the housing ladder.

Yes I agree. That is how they work. Immigration is the way to make money and support house price for rich people. All the people who could not afford the living cost here are pushed out to other countries.

They will be keen to open the flood gates as soon as possible to keep the demand up.
At the moment more people are leaving than arriving.

Yes. Every day they complain on medias that why we do not open the border? why we do not let workers coming in? Some kiwis applied for fruit picking jobs without reply, while 2000 overseas workers will be allowed into do this job..

kiwikeith...yes indeed. And three guesses what the effect of an extra 300K+ people all entering the rental market over the next five years will have on rental costs.

oh wait until new GVs are out, oh wait until the councils increase rates based on the new GVS to fund there massive corporate overheads, oh wait until your house insurance starts to increase to match the new GV's, oh wait until the newly retired realise they have massively underestimated the cost of retirement now, oh wait until they beg the government (which they will) increase the retirement benefit, oh wait until inflation takes off....

The local maccer's have increased their base prices for items twice in the last 6 months.
Local supermarket base prices are on the increase regularly. Everything on the up.
will be interesting to see next 1/4 CPI

Interesting.
Those who have been demonstrably wrong seem to be the ones that are making the most prolific comments on this site:
- Independent Observer who now has called bubble burst for over five years
- Court Jester who in support of IO some months ago deferred buying a $1.5m home that he could afford because of the impending bubble burst
- B21 who has been plotting the demise of the property market for the past 16 weeks based on auction data.
- Mike has now determined February 18th is now the date after claiming many things such as 20% fall by the end of 2020 and Auckland monthly sales until Christmas down 35% for the equivalent month of 2017.

One can only chuckle.

For what it affects me this is totally false. I have been gathering auction data and sharing them to give some perspective to others. The data shows that the initial spike in success rates run out.

https://i.postimg.cc/C1BS5ds1/BT-clearance-rates-3w-trend-w49.png

Since looks like targeted harassment makes you feel good I have reported this post.

You reported that? Snowflake...

Absolutely, we must have zero tolerance against this type of poisonous behaviour.
You should have a bit more empathy as you may behave differently if it would have been against you.

13
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You're a clown. I never said I wanted to buy a $1.5 million house. I said the banks would lend me enough to buy one. Huge difference, yet you keep bringing this up. Get your facts straight before you try to put others down. Muppet.

16
up

What a cock-womble. Nothing like gloating eh while people are struggling to put a roof over their head.

11
up

You keep making shit up p8 to try and make other people look wrong and for you to appear 'right' and superior (hence why your online personality appears to have narcissistic personality disorder traits) - my view is that it could be a bubble and it could burst and the prices could fall 50%. To say that I'm wrong because I give a possible outcome just makes you sound desperate. And I don't give a timeline, bubbles burst when they're ready. It could peak next year, heck it could peak 5 years from now. But we can't pump QE into the system forever and asset prices can't rise at 20% p.a. forever. Its unsustainable.

Please grow up - although I'm worried you're running out of years to do so. If you are so wise, then it means you're old. And if you are old, you should have more humility than you're displaying. Set the standard of conduct on here eh p8.

https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-074c41e34463066267f5c735d13fd318

Ah, that stirred up the cabal. :)

I wonder how much it would stir you up if people started telling lies about you.
Maybe I should mention that you sold your house 5 years ago waiting for the crash and bought Air NZ shares instead...

Still not sure what his agenda is. He has said he sold his investment properties years ago, don't know if I believe that as he seems very pro-property.

P8's "agenda" is to help people getting wealthy through RE. He is one of the most knowledgeable commenter on here and anyone who wants to learn (Edit; I realise that's probably no one on this comments section, sadly) will do well to listen to his advice

I am avoiding the housing threads because they have descended into some sort of dark Kafkaesque parody.

You're microaggressions are going down a treat though!

More sneering contempt. Great standard

This personal back-and-forth about who said what and when and who was TOTALLY WRONG etc...
It's very, very boring. Both the gloating and the defensive responses.
I can claim a little expertise in this, having worked as a professional website moderator -- I suggest that the mods just nuke it all without apology.
It's tedious and ruins the flow of what can be an interesting conversation. Also makes me think less of commenters who otherwise have interesting points to make.

Hear, hear.

It actually discourages conversation. Spreading lies to try to discredit others is obviously toxic. But people also get harassed for months for making a "wrong" prediction. There are some people here who want an echo chamber, not actual discussion.

I'd just delete anything that 'calls out' another poster or insults them personally, regardless of whether it's true or not. Respond to the point under discussion, don't litigate the past.

You think the journalists here should waste their valuable time refereeing this nonsense when most probably don't even pay a subscription?

What P8 said was very mild and just calling out the failed predictions of the perma-gloomy, it wasn't personal.

You are really talking about something you have no idea. Please stop digging further, you are making a fool out of yourself.

In all seriousness, I take that as a compliment from you.

Don't bother. The tone says it all.
Some folk have not the wherewithal, nor cajones to make forecasts

(dp, please delete, apologies for overly sensitive keyboard)

(tp, please delete)

You seem rightly prolific, Mr Senior lecturer.
The original forecast was for the median price in Auckland to fall by 25% by end of 2021.
I made that forecast I think in about mid to late 2019.
On the basis of utterly different financial environment and a market that year wherein sales were 3 lowest in 20 years.
You know the financial climate has been altered by huge QE and LVR removal and interest rate cuts meantime, as I have acknowledged.
Yet your condescension and mockery continues.
A world recession and credit crunch will occur and at present we are in an artificial boomlet that is contra-cyclical.
The only reason You have not been "wrong" is because you revise your ground and argument whenever the wind changes yet slag off others who do same but less often than you.
We are not all going to kneel in obeisance to the great seer and oracle, sorry.

Hi Mike
by mikekirk29 | 28th May 20, 11:50am
- Expect 25% fewer sales in last 5 months of the year, than in 2019.
by mikekirk29 | 28th May 20, 11:50am
- Prices will fall 12-15% by end of 2020
by mikekirk29 | 15th Jun 20, 1:39pm
- I expect that Auckland sales will be 35% below the equivalent month of 2017, until Xmas.

Sorry . . . but your rebuff is wrong if you note the dates. Contrary to claims in your post these are all 2020, post-Covid lock down, post announcement of removal of LVRs on 30 April, and post QE.
You keep making very specific predictions (amazingly to the exact date such as that made today for Feb 18) every couple of weeks based on considerable data to give an air of credibility but analysis using suspect methodology of which I was critical last year. Unsurprisingly these are invariably doom and gloom, and over the past year plus have been consistently not only wrong but at exact odds with market trends.
Why shouldn't this be pointed out and your reliability be challenged?
Do you really think that we should all blindly accept and believe you, and praise you and your predictions when they are consistently prove to lack credibility?
This is called robust debate.
You have a good weekend.
Cheers

P.S. That was just a selection of your erroneous predictions.

FINALLY SOMEONE HAS KEPT THE RECEIPTS OF THIS CLOWN.

Well said P8, it's just ridiculous how many people are consistently wrong with their predictions over months or years but somehow they are not able to think "hey I've been wrong several times now, maybe it's time to change my thinking?"

At least these commentators are making calls. You like to sit on the fence then chastise said commentators when you took their advice, sold your house, and ended up costing yourself at least $200k over the past 12 months.

I hope you all realise that when the hate speech laws are tightened by this most popular government in living memory, you will need to find something else to do with your fingers.

Simply the only real way anything will change is if there is a massive increase in supply of homes. Tinkering around the edges with taxes / rules will never really help.
I have two rentals and have made $700000 in the last three years on those plus $400000 on the family home, No capital gain on any as I have had them long enough. I do not feel guilty as doing the governments job for them and providing great housing for two great families.
Any gain from those is for my children to buy their first homes or they can have my rentals.
Stop the whining and get into it people as the more weeks you talk about how bad it is the prices keep going up.
No matter what you are telling yourself house prices will never never never start going down, look at real estate history.

Like the last Government this Government is condemned to lack of innovation. The politicians running the show have no clue, and the treasury officials seem unwilling or incapable to informing that other countries have long ago dealt to this problem to insure that in a city like Auckland 40% of Single Family Homes fall into Investors hands--the very homes that in most cases need to be in the hands of Auckland's working class so that they can get on the property ladder in their late 20's and 30's -the way it always used to be. 10 to 1 Median House to Median Income ratios forbid these young families buying and condemn them to forking out 30% to 40% of their income to a Landlord. Kiwi Saver withdrawls are marvelous avenues for the upper 1/3 of this age groups income earners to get on the ladder, but at $10k to $15k going into Kiwi Saver each year and Median jumping $24k in a month it is a joke to think that these people have a shot. Why Treasury hasn't convinced Labour leaders there are ways to correct this --and Capital Gains tax is only a small component -is simply mystifying. Who does Labour represent these days?