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The national median house price rose $50,000 in February, Auckland median up by $100,000 for the month, the REINZ says

The national median house price rose $50,000 in February, Auckland median up by $100,000 for the month, the REINZ says

House prices exploded last month, with the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand's national median selling price increasing by $50,000 from January, while Auckland's median price was up $100,000 for the month.

That's an average price increase of $25,000 a week for the country's most expensive housing region.

Residential property sales volumes were also through the roof, hitting a 14 year high for the month of February. 

The REINZ said 7964 residential properties were sold throughout the country in February, up 14.6% compared to February last year.

The Auckland market led the charge with 2775 sales in February, up 34.6% year-on-year. That's also the highest sales volumes for the month of February in 14 years.

Nine of the REINZ's 16 sales regions had higher sales than in February last year, including West Coast +58.0%, Taranaki +31.4% and Northland +22.5%.

Seven regions had lower sales in February compared to a year ago, led by Marlborough -24.7%, Hawke's Bay -22.3%, Gisborne -17.9% and Tasman -17.9% (the second interactive chart below shows the sales volume trends in all regions).

"It's highly likely that some of this uplift can be attributed to both investors and owner-occupiers looking to purchase ahead of loan-to-value ratio restrictions coming back into effect in March," REINZ Chief Executive Bindi Norwell said.

Prices also rocketed up , with the national median selling price increasing by $50,000 in February, setting a a new record of $780,000.

Record median prices were also set in 12 of the REINZ's 16 sales regions.

In Auckland the median price increased by $100,000 in February, to set a new record of $1,100,000.

Within the region, new record median prices were also set in North Shore, Waitakere, Central Auckland, Manukau, Papakura and Franklin (the first interactive chart below shows the median price trends in all regions).

Record median prices were also set in Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Manawatu, Wellington, Marlborough, West Coast and Canterbury (see chart below for details).

"It's likely that February's housing data will make very difficult reading for the thousands of renters and first home buyers who are hoping to one day be able to purchase a property," Norwell said.

"Hopefully the re-introduction of LVR's will start to slow down the rate at which price shave been rising and that the market will stabilise in due course," she said.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Median price - REINZ

Select chart tabs

NZ total
Source: REINZ
Northland
Source: REINZ
Auckland
Source: REINZ
Waikato
Source: REINZ
Bay of Plenty
Source: REINZ
Gisborne
Source: REINZ
Hawke's Bay
Source: REINZ
Manawatu
Source: REINZ
Taranaki
Source: REINZ
Wellington
Source: REINZ
Tasman
Source: REINZ
Nelson
Source: REINZ
Marlborough
Source: REINZ
West Coast
Source: REINZ
Canterbury
Source: REINZ
Otago
Source: REINZ
Southland
Source: REINZ

Volumes sold - REINZ

Select chart tabs

NZ total
Source: REINZ
Northland
Source: REINZ
Auckland
Source: REINZ
Waikato
Source: REINZ
Bay of Plenty
Source: REINZ
Gisborne
Source: REINZ
Hawke's Bay
Source: REINZ
Manawatu
Source: REINZ
Taranaki
Source: REINZ
Wellington
Source: REINZ
Tasman
Source: REINZ
Nelson
Source: REINZ
Marlborough
Source: REINZ
West Coast
Source: REINZ
Canterbury
Source: REINZ
Otago
Source: REINZ
Southland
Source: REINZ

 

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429 Comments

Inflammatory

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The chart suggests that the median house price rose from $400,000 to $500,000 between 2014 and 2017 under National, then from $500,000 to $800,000 under Labour. Jacinda and her promises of no wealth taxes.

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I think if you plotted house prices vs ocr you would see a good correlation especially over the last 12 years.

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Yes, people seem to forget that the price of a house is just one component to affordability. Interest rates are the other main part. ( also deposit requirements).
The real measure is how long it takes you to pay it back using say 30% if your household income.
It surprises me how few people seem to grasp this.

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JJ...a 12 year sample size is almost completely meaningless. And anyway between 2010 and 2015 interest rates pretty much remained the same (in fact they dropped slightly) so there was no correlation with house prices. While it is not the only driver, immigration is the main driver immediately affecting rents and affecting house prices with about a 5 year lag. When a massive and prolonged surge in demand for anything occurs (providing supply is fairly constant) prices will increase. Of course interest rates do have an effect, in fact a big effect, but make no mistake, creating a massive imbalance between demand and supply through open border mass immigration is the main driver. I would be inclined to have a look at interest rates since the 80s and compare them to house prices. I think you will see that it is hard to make a good case for them being linked to house prices. However, if you compare immigration numbers (applying a 5 year lag) you will see a disturbing correlation, which based on the basic rule of supply and demand comes as no surprise.

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I know this is wishful thinking. The government needs to bring in policy to create a correction of about a 20% fall.

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What, to bring it back to the ridiculously unaffordable levels of one year ago?

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I know, it’s nuts.
The sad thing is, a lot of people now have very poor mental health. I believe life expectancy will decline rapidly as a result of high house prices. Suicide will be the leading cause of death in NZ. J.A will have blood on her hands.

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"Let's keep moving"

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I guess the age old argument that immigrants are causing the price increases are out the window...cant throw the race/bigot card on this one.

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Tua...Please take the time to compare immigration rates to house prices applying a 5 year lag to avoid further non-sensical comments. Also please tell us why the basic (and undisputed ) rule of supply and demand does not apply to housing (and rents). Of course, when now days, most of our immigrants are poor unskilled economic migrants it takes time for them to get on the property ladder and hence the lag. But you did manage to grab those ever present "PC bonus points" by bringing race into the issue when it is totally unrelated to the topic.

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Because a lot of the demand is illogical speculation...

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Speculators are a drop in the ocean. When you’re getting a 3-4% rental yield plus all the leveraged capital gains as a bonus compared to 0.25% in the bank it isn’t really any wonder that there would be huge demand for that asset class. Investors are long term or never sell as rents tick up over time and these investments which are already hugely attractive just get better and better.

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POP goes dat weasel

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Nup, Pump the Medium to 1 Million. NZ Housing to the Moon~!! :)

Kiwis (especially my generation) refuse to listen to Mr Market and vote for political parties like Labour whom call for ever increasing house prices. Boomers have just allocated their capital wisely based on Taxation, RBNZ Stimulus and Supply-&-Demand.

PUMP IT UP~!! I'm not for human misery.. HOWEVER, I'm starting to find this bubble VERY entertaining :) Hopefully this situation is a learning opportunity for my generation - an expensive one no doubt. Unfortunately I think my peers are becoming whiny-little-b****es and will vote Labour back in lol :(

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Yeah, rip that plaster off..slash the OCR, DO IT! - see what happens, B*tches

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This is the way

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Yeah.. that Mandalorian code :-) different planetary systems.

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It’s got very little to do with politics and EVERYTHING to do with Central Bank Policy. Look at what Jerome Powell recently .... we want people to go out and support the economy by taking on massive amounts of debt. When we are happy with those debt levels we’ll put the interest rates up. That’s when the sh1t will hit the fan because even a small increase in interest rates will cause massive problems unless salaries have increased massively to support those debt levels. If not, that’s when we’ll see huge numbers of defaults and the banks start to struggle. Enter new government policy. Let the banks fail BUT any customer deposits will be transferred to your Central Bank Digital Currency account with the RBNZ. Exactly the same thing is happening all around the world. It’s in everyone’s best interest to get informed so you have an idea of where we could be heading, how we could get there and how you can best protect yourself.

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Blah!

Diamond Boomer Hands :) - HOLD! I wanna see you guys push the medium to 1 Million~!! 1 Million or Bust~!! :) HOLD!

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Incredible that more specuvestors are not cashing some of their properties out - I know some are but most seem asleep at the wheel. It's like David Siegal (timeshare magnate) said "the banks just kept giving me money!"

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dago
So if they were to cash up, what are they going to do with that cash?
Those “speculators” who bought two to four years ago aren’t in a rush as they are probably returning a net yield of 5 to 7% on their initial investment, and why throw away so much due to the bright line test.
Not too many secure options and please don’t bother suggesting cryptocurrency.

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Pay down some debt

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dago
Debt is to their advantage but the wider problem.
Debt is so cheap that they are creaming it. Just use the banks money at 2.5% for a net yield of 5% on property: that means that if they have 40% equity they getting 10% yield on that equity. Why bother selling up.
They are all right Jack.

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Tell me where you are getting 5% net yield in this current market.

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Wellington apartments. Rents will climbing. Prices up but rents keeping up alright

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albert
Simplistic thinking
If you refer to my post I specifically mention yield on "initial" investment - i.e. the price they initially paid for the house some three to four years ago.
Yes, if net yields on current values are around 3% then on the initial value of the house they purchased it would considerably higher.
However, even considering current values, actual yields are still slightly better than bank mortgage rates so with yield slightly higher and having a mortgage through leveraging the return on their equity is going to be higher.
It currently makes some sense for investors to hold properties and the bottom line is that property investment is long term - yield is more important in the short term and property market fluctuations are irrelevant.

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Liked the long drive with Volvo S60, but it's just that even the manual suggest the result of short term rear fish tailing at high speed can cause bad accident. That is the issue now, govt & RBNZ can avoid it? make it worst? make it faster? reduce speed? - or let momentum decide.

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Politicians are complicit, they are enabling this with their neglect and lack of macroprudential policy. It has been nearly a year now, nearly 1 whole year since this boom took off again! Can anyone honestly see Grant Robertson and Jacinda Ardern coming through with any meaningful announcement - it become a joke. It's like watching someone make excuses for not doing the homework "the dog ate it!" honestly how thick are some kiwis?

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Yeah we know! NZ Houses are going to the Moon.. moooooo oooooo oooon

buy, buy :)

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The government can change the legislation governing the reserve bank. They haven't. It all comes back to the government.

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CB policy toolkits was mandated by the govt of the day, Just watch.. and witness what happened to the vertical limit.

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We're all rich, I tells ya. Rich.
Now. Get out and Expand those Household Balance Sheets.
What's that? That's what you've just done to go on the property buying spree? But what about the aim of spending at the shops, bars and Airbnb's across our land?
Oh, well. At least the RBNZ stimulus has been applied for the future good of our country. Pity about the jobs.

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I'm so happy for my children, overjoyed.

I just need sharpen the spade so I can flatten out a patch on the front lawn to put a tent up on so they can move out of home in a few years...

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You need to buy a couple of more houses for them before it is too late.

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HPI graph looks like the terrain profile of Mt Everest.

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Actually it looks a lot like the Bitcoin price graph, just prior to one of its immense crashes......

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Oh not another bloody parabolic - I feel queasy...

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Too big to fail or even allowed to moderate, our new national industry.

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Wages and salaries won’t be markedly increasing either. This is a low wage economy running on cheap imported labour and it ain’t changing. The expectation of business is that people go to work to fill ups their days - the housing market is where you go to make your money. Anyone asking for a raise would be thought of as a ‘greedy pr*ck’ when houses go up $100,000 in a month.

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Yes. And NZ job market seems to be in an interesting state of internal churn - people already here changing jobs, with not much new blood (fresh meat) coming in.
It's primed now. Open Flood Gates, drop OCR through the floor, stand well back and let's see this thing top out and belly flop like a Starship. Sgunna be awesome.

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Why are property prices and rents not included in the inflation calculation when they are one of the largest household spends?

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Only new build construction costs are considered to be a consumer item - hence only increases in those costs are included in the CPI basket.

Land is the major contributor to the increased cost of buying a place and its been going up massively in price, because central banks have been pushing the OCR lower, because they can't find any consumer price inflation. You couldn't make this shit up - but its real and its happening.

If we measured inflation based upon money supply - then we'd see that we have had 5-10% inflation the last 20 years on average and the OCR would be much higher and asset bubbles wouldn't exist. But central banks are using dodgy measures of inflation and wondering why they're creating financial instability when their job is to ensure the opposite of that. They are both the arsonist and firefighter. In that respect, as a group, they are all insane (actually).

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So the BIG question is what has the REAL inflation figure been for the last 12 months ? How about some answers from the informed panel here. I'm going 20%.

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Tomatoes are 9c a kilo so according to the bank advert, a FHB could just consume those all year in order to live and save for a house. So if anything we're in deflation, so OCR should be negative. (sarc)

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The nouvea riche: “Let them eat tomatoes!”

The young: “Off with their heads!”

The government and central banks: “Too big to fail! Bail-outs for all! Privatise the profits, socialise the losses!”

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Local sushi is up 20%.

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Carlos67,

For inflation, I am going with the result from the "Big Mac Index"... A Big Mac combo has gone up 20% in the past 12 months in my area.

This agrees with your assessment of inflation.

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Rent is included, CPI as an index for understanding household cashflow is very poor.

For at least a decade people have been pointing this out and some countries have adopted better measures (e.g. CPI-H by the Bank of England) and we did use to include house prices in RPI when RBNZ used that measure. Also in some countries (e.g. US, Canada etc.) they add back "owner occupied rents" which is a calculation of what owner-occupiers would pay if they rented their houses.

We however do not and as a result CPI is not a good way to estimate real household inflation. In fact StatsNZ recommend a measure called HLPI: https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/household-living-costs-p…

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Yes - in our region the profit margin on a $300,000.00 section is about $200,000.00

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Rent is included as are new house prices and rates. According to the RBNZ the housing component of CPI is around 25%

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Accommodation costs making up only 25% of your after-tax income is making some pretty heroic assumptions what your total-take him pay must be each week.

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Indeed, but how else will they make all the quality adjustments on iphones, tv's etc. If they assume all people can afford is housing & food where these quality adjustments are difficult to make?

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If I earned that much a week I could just buy all the TVs I could eat, no matter what they cost - which, in NZ, is a fair whack more than they do in Australia thanks to some isolation pricing (read: ransom) strategies our local retailers and distributors employ.

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New house prices are NOT included. Rather, the cost of building is. Stats NZ have a method where they liaise with some building companies to determine construction cost inflation.
New houses obviously include land and land value. The CPI does not measure this.

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CPI measures consumption. Homes are not consumed but are rather a long term investment similar to savings.

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So are cars consumed, or are they a long term investment also? A house wears out and decays same as a car. It also costs in maintenance to prolong it's life same as a car. One day it will be scrapped, same as a car. In fact replace car with tv or toaster. What is the difference really?
I can't see how houses are not consumed.

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Yeah, it's bollocks. It's just part of the bigger game to pump the housing ponzi.

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Lets say you have an index (CPI), and your goal is to keep this figure within a band of 1 - 3 %. You also own multiple residential properties, as do your friends. You may have mortgages. The positioning of this index within the band dictates where the benchmark rate sits, and subsequently mortgage rates.

By removing houses from the Index, you and your friends can benefit from the side effects of lowering of the benchmark rate, through house price inflation and lowered borrowing costs, without breaching your mandated 1 - 3% index range.

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When I look on Trademe my Ute has gone up in value compared to what I paid for it 2 1/2 years ago. This must be all the money piling into assets.

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"And in other news, Adrian Orr reported this morning that the latest updates to the CPI basket of goods index include removing the cost of used utility vehicles..."

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I noticed the same last month when purchasing a 2nd hand Toyota the same year and kms as I bought my daughter a few years back (I liked hers), they are 2-3k more now for the same age and kms. Turners told me stock is slow to come into NZ

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Sure, trade your house in for some Corollas (or TVs or toasters) and let me know how that works out in 20 years.

House maintenance costs are included in the CPI and the land/estate on which the house is situated is not consumed.

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and houses are included in the CPI.. the land they sit on is not.

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Fair point. A lot of money goes into purchasing land from consumers pockets, so it should be included in the model somehow. Otherwise it is missing an important part, and distorted outcomes can be expected.

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Because central bankers don’t think that homes, food and energy are important enough. If they did include them it would ruin their graphs. It would also invalidate their decades of study and work on an economic theory that does not work in the real world, which lets face it, is where we all live!

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Inventory fallen from 19 to 11 weeks (-42%)
So, turnover up massively.
Sales in Auckland still v strong, but not as strong.
For example, NSC was up 36% in sales YoY. In the 4 months pre xmas it was more like 55% up, and in some months more than that.
Sales outside Auckland up 6% YoY. In January it was -25%
In 4 months before that it was: +31%; +22%;+19% and +34%
So, excl Auckland prices rising has hit sales
Pre running LVRs this month, so real impact will be next month.
The ship is running out of steam, but slowly.
Crux now is what bond market does to LT interest rates and confidence

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"Pre running LVRs"
I still shake my head at anyone who buys anything that is going to have an impediment placed on it at a future sales time, that they didn't have to overcome when they bought. It's like racing down to Briscoes to buy a set of sheet, at 'normal' price, just in case they aren't available when "Sale!" time inevitably arrives.
Maybe they intend 'keeping them for life'. Lets' hope so if that's the reason.

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bw, hate to admit have relations who will actually do that. And if you are seated, will start slowing down before getting to a green light in case it turns red. yes mothers have not stopped having them, not at all.

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I thought the market was turning on 18 February?

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Slowing, not collapsing

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MK29,

But, you said that on 18th Feb, we would see something dramatic happening in the market, as prelude to a complete meltdown in Oct. What actually happened on 18th Feb? Answer-nothing. You are like a cult leader announcing a specific day for the end of the world and when, as always, it doesn't come, you just come up with a new date.

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Barry Smith 2.0?

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The Martin North of NZ?

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Wrong market
Stock market
And take a look at what Chinese stock market did after Feb 22nd : fell 15%

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Mike
Desperate, mate. :)
You don’t refer to the stock market in an article on housing especially when you support your claim with housing data.

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Original reference to market dropping in October was in ref to stocks.
Turn in market for Feb 18th was for housing
I really do not care what naysayers on here think
I put stuff on for those with an open mind
I am not desperate for your good opinion thanks

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FGS Mike, house prices have exploded and you are still wittering on about completely meaningless statistics. You have missed this move completely and credibility is shot.

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Reminds me; I forgot to bet on the 600 as they galloped off into the valley.

I seem to remember turning down an offer of Ariadne shares once, too.

Shows some of us never learn.

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Please don't mention ariadne. I had forgotten about that dreadful experience

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I really enjoyed reading those posts of yours - very insightful. Thanks!

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Auckland house prices will continue to rise for the next 18 months, barring an external crisis. Simply, all the numbers stack up on one side at this point.

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Agree. Changes to the Unitary Plan later this year will contribute to that.
I think the increases will.moderate, though.

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Mikekirk it doesn't matter if the housing market hits a brick wall tomorrow, the damage is already done. House prices are going up the side of Everest as others have pointed out, the thing they didn't mention however is the safety pegs going in on the way up. History has prices going up but any falls are on short bits of rope that are securely anchored in rock.

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Look at whats happened to Oz fixed mortgage rates 1.89% 4 years fixed https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/westpac-slashes-…

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mike kirk
what's with all the numbers? don't you know that mathematics is racist now!!

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Auckland seasonally adjusted median price up 28.8%
Well done Mr Orr.
As usual for Labour leaders, JA was more inclined to tack to right to be reliant on their votes, than she was to tack left and rely on Greens making leftie demands. Of course there are more votes on centre Right.
It was always thus.
Forget about Labour doing anything for bottom 40% I am afraid.
it would cost them too many votes in the next band up

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Mmmm . . . so Mike it seems Orr has more impact on houses prices than the stars. Satan and Uranus squaring off 18 Feb was nothing compared to Orr - mind blowing ahy. :)

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Turn was 18th February, in stats. But peak was 10th December.
See 4 suburb stats lower down.
Cycles are cyclical, so direction from here is down.

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You probably mean February 2020 because I recall you in 2019, calling for the RE market to go down from Feb 2020

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Why is it that when get the worst news there are a few around here that seem to be having the most fun?

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Because not all people are in the same situation b21, the world is bigger than you and multi-faceted

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Exactly, it is called empathy. You have a big issue if you are unable to even grasp that.

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Agreed. Meanwhile GR is still thinking about it.

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Wasn't the Labour Government meant to make an announcement with some measures to stop this madness sometime in January, then postponed, then postponed again, and now meant to do sometime in mid March?

Not that I would expect them to make any significant changes but inaction is being responsible of the near collapse of economy.

These $100K are on Jacinda.

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Even if they do announce now as being forced to do under pressure will be from some months away giving window of opportunity to speculate.

Real shame.

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You are rigjt - these incteases are on this Govt and every day they delay acting, the worse it gets.

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I don't think any of our politicians are geared up to fix this. Both major parties have failed us and neither have a plan that will do anything. All main parties are home to people who own multiple properties and investments. Anyone that does should be excluded on the basis of a conflict of interest.

I think its easy to fall for the short term political point scoring, but in realty no-one is offering a workable plan that will immediately bring prices down. Thats what we need now, not this plan to reduce the increases.

Time to hit the speculators hard, free up the land and fund the infrastructure. Rip up planning restrictions on all suburbs in all cities and allow intensive development. Properly tax the huge profits people are making and make it fund all of the above. Also investigate the cost inflation of the construction sector, look at whose profiting, open the whole thing up to more competition.

This problem needs some serious and hard hitting demand and supply measures to be brought in immediately. We need to aim to reduce prices now and sorry some people are going to have to take the hit.

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Totally spot on.

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"...sorry some people are going to have to take the hit."
Exactly. I love how people raise that fact that many will lose if house prices crashes as some kind of reason to avoid it. As if many aren't already being slaughtered in the current situation. Only difference is WHO wins or loses in each situation.

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I think you misunderstand the motivation of politicians. Sure a lot of them are profiting from it by owning multiple properties, but that is not the main motivation.

They want to be seen to be "good at the economy". They need unemployment to stay low and GDP "growth" to continue, even if its coming from an unsustainable debt bubble, or its driven by forces that actually make New Zealanders worse off on average. They realize if they let the bubble burst during their time in office they won't get re-elected. So they would rather sell the country down the river, keep the ponzi scheme running, making the whole problem worse, and hope it blows up in someone else's face. In short, they won't go out of their way to fix the problem, and they will keep pumping the ponzi to the point where they no longer can control it. So when things unwind it will do so in a much uglier way (see greece, spain or japan in the 80's).

The majority of New Zealands want runaway prices to stop - so politicians need to appear to be doing something about it. But when you look at the actions of both Labour and National its all window dressing, and they will keep the scam alive as long as possible.

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All main parties are home to people who own multiple properties and investments. Anyone that does should be excluded on the basis of a conflict of interest.

From the census, about 32% of households are renting. If you want to ensure that MPs are only people who don't own houses, then you're saying you want minority rule.

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No No - owing a house is all good. Owning multiple houses however

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Yes and it will be along something like " the team of 5 million need to be kind to each other and sell their houses for a lot less than the market is saying, we have to be kind to all those that can't afford a deposit and kind to all of those who can't pay there increasing rent payments and kind to to your children who will never afford a house on our NZ wages, juts be kind and it will be all ok"...what could'nt change with such an in-depth policy announcement.

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These $100K are on Jacinda.

She will take it as a compliment for her accomplishment.

White collar revolution on the way.....lol or many kiwi rent for life now and thank Jacinda for voting her with full power.

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Yes they keep delaying. Grant and Jacinda belong in jail

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Far too kind.

Aroha.

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Pretty easy to blame them. Are they also at fault for the massive increases in Bitcoin, sharemarkets, etc? It’s nothing to do with supply and demand now, it’s all about central banks printing and low interest rates.

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The wage packet is a worthless relic of the past in respect of present purchasing power.

In terms of central banks and their wealthy bank agents I am reminded of this:

News report 1921: German Reichsbank (unaccountable to gov't) faces headache from rising inflation pushing up bond yields. No worries. It knows how to push down bond yields: by printing more money to buy more bonds, which will reduce yields assuming ceteris paribus ('no inflation) Link

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Yep - makes Demographia's old worries about multiples seem a little archaic.

Mega-multiples more like it.

What saddens me, is that this is all indicative of a bigger, much more existential malaise, but we won't be discussing that anywhere, anytime, soon.

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Somewhere in the future inevitably the conglomerates and financial mega corporates are going to come down their mountain of debt by way of an avalanche. Much bloodletting, grinding of teeth and accusations. A monumental hair cut for all and sundry. Then just like ants and a ant hill, the survivors will set about constructing another mountain. Historically though, a large scale war, continental and/or global, has been part of the precipitation.

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Daughter and son inlaw, either side of 30, both have masters and correspondingly high income. Latest valuation means they still "earnt" more from house price increase.

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And as we know, their high incomes mean so much less now, when they want to upgrade to another location/home, as they will at their ages.
Someone tell me again how much wealthier your (and my) family is.

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I'm not I own zilch,

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So with interest rates at 1% p.a. FHB just needs to put >$100m in a TD to generate $100k month return just to stay neutral with the housing market. I see no issue here.

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We all need to secure a tent to live in civic square near the public amenities. That yachting extravaganza venue is a good spot.

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TD are for oldies, not FHB.

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Same with wages. I have never been in receipt of them since 1998 (age 45) because they never represented value for work done compared with unearned income available from capital. Unfortunately the majority are capital deficient by design.

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Wrong! The $100k extra is after tax for FHB, so at highest marginal rate they would have to invest circa $180m to be even. And they wonder why people are pulling money off TD to invest in houses? I think I'm getting beyond loathing past & present politicians & RBNZ.

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And they wonder why people are pulling money off TD to invest in houses?

Unfortunately, the vendors of residential property to previous TD investors accept an O/N ledger credit from the buyers' banks as payment. Basically rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.

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AND Jacinda Arden and her team wants house price to grow.

Median house price growth by $25000 per week and till January were talking about $4000 per week.

Real Money....Congratulate Jacinda Arden, Mr Robertson and Mr Orr and their team for achieving the milestone on a weekly basis.

Jacinda Arden has even beat John Key in promoting and Supporting the ponzi.

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Viola~ that's the end of this cycle, full stop. Let's move on to debt and interest rate

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It is this type of news that create Bigger FOMO And people rushing and now if Jacinda Arden does not act and act fast will be a real shame.

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I think its too late for action now.

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Horse...Bolted

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I believe she is in Wellington. Ouch, I'll take the hate.

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You are right, bad journalism should be held accountable also for this mess, specially the likes of NZME but the picture in this article does not help either.

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“on fire” today..... “ burning down” tomorrow. Same picture, different interpretation.

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I don't think people realise how much trouble we're in with this unfolding. If you look at the history of markets (and housing markets especially) this could well go down in the record books as the biggest property bubble in history and there will be many lessons that will be taught to finance and econ students in the future. Similar to the way the Enron example is pumped into current business students.

I'm not sure I see a 'good' path forward from this - how do you go about moderating prices from here without the entire financial system/banking system from collapsing? (honest question).

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Inflation. They are going to inflate their way out of it.

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If we had a labour force that could negotiate higher wages to compensate tor said inflation - maybe.
But we don't.
We have a workforce so much more reliant on the services' industry than we did the last time we tried this trick (the 1970s) and less of it needed (technology).
Inflation won't work this time. In fact, I still see it triggering the reverse - Deflation, as all factors conspire to force those with limited means to sell whatever they have, and work for less to keep a job in the face of huge competition - here and abroad.
The initial answer to head that off will be to reign in interest rate rises. But in so doing, that will make the problem that has to be addressed, worse.

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How - they don't appear to know how to create inflation..(honest question). Every time they push rates lower, it appears to encourage deflation (opposite of what they intend). Perhaps we need to lift rate to create inflation (i.e. the opposite of their entire mantra).

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What do you mean? House prices went up 100,000 in auckland last month? Theres your inflation.

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That’s asset price inflation. Once people are paying $50 for a hamburger they will realise just how cooked our collective goose is. Renters already know about inflation, it hasn’t hit the general populace yet.

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That means I'll be able to measure my mortgage payments in hamburgers. In that scenario I'd only be paying 5.5 hamburgers per week on my mortgage instead of 32.5. Seems legit. /s

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Exactly. Hyperinflation will destroying the value of all retired savings, while destabilizing all employers struggling to put up fees and costs in order to make pay increases nexesary to maintain staff to prevent operational bankruptcy. Aka punishing the many to protect the few, being the high risk speculative behavior of bank lending and their debt risk proxy's (investors).

Picking anyone into software automation and robotics focused on eliminating employee wage risk will be doing pretty damn well in the next 5-10 years.

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The only hedge against a wheel-barrow full of cash for a loaf of bread in the medium term, is to diversify out of the NZD into currencies that are outside of CB control and have mobile applications for peer to peer value transfer. This is why PayPal is all in on Bitcoin folks - to provide this sort of solution. But there are dozens more in the form of crypto wallets - Atomic, Exodus, Electrum, Mycelium, etc. Do yourself future self a favour and vote against this system with your money. You might just survive!

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Easy.Put gst to 30%, min wage to $50 and council rates up by 30% and we will have inflation. What’s stopping us if inflation is so damn desirable?

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Therein lies the problem....there is no painless way out of this....and they know it.

There is only time gained.

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How's that going to be tolerated?
It's not going to start with wage inflation and we already have a significant number of households struggling with costs. The inflation they need is eventually going to show up in the CPI and require a rates rise.
If house prices plateau under high inflation well that's negative real returns and time to sell as the stock market will keep up with inflation.

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Brock..inflate their way out of it while keeping the OCR at record lows? Good luck with that.

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Impossible to inflate away, if wages don't rise much. And they have hardly moved in years

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A few people realise, but between vested interests and aversion to meddling with the 'golden goose' the (sur)reality will be ignored until it can't be. It feels like we are nearing this point (particularly in Auckland). Say you've got a young professional couple as the marginal natural buyer. Even adjusting for stamp duty, they can likely afford 10%-15% more floorspace in Melbourne or Sydney, likely in a nicer suburb with better public infrastructure and job prospects to boot. There is an article on Domain Australia today arguing to that effect.

The wishful thinking is that house prices will not need to 'moderate' (i.e. decline in real terms) because by allowing the economy and labour market to run hot, real wages will catch up and help to rein in Debt:Income ratios at the margin.

What happens at the margin, and who is the marginal buyer is important because a wealthy retiree who is trying to generate income (and protect their capital against inflation) in the face of pitiful interest on deposits is using a very different calculus to a FHB who is leveraging up to the hilt under some combination of FOMO duress and illusory assumption of low interest rates beyond a fixed term.

The 'good' path could eventuate if the NZ economy creates a lot of high-paying jobs in population centres, but for this to happen you need productivity growth - something which is being flatly ignored at the moment. Labour mobility, particularly the ability to go across the ditch, also works against this - particularly with Australia dropping their marginal tax rates vs NZ moving in the opposite direction.

Failing that, as you say the short odds are on a new case study for Commerce students and a history lesson for the rest of them.

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"Even adjusting for stamp duty, they can likely afford 10%-15% more floorspace in Melbourne or Sydney, likely in a nicer suburb with better public infrastructure and job prospects to boot"

The Sydney median auction price is $1.7m, so NZ$2m with stamp duty. Their sections are smaller and there are a lot more terraces/units. It may work for some to move, but for most it's Townsville/Cairns/Adelaide etc for it to stack up.

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Nonsense.

CoreLogic data for the Sydney median house price was 1.01 million as of Feb 1st.

Melbourne and Brisbane are cheaper again.

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The "median auction price" is a nonsense statistic. The median price is 1.03 million.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-01/home-prices-return-to-record-hig…

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I did say the median auction price in my original comment before you called that nonsense.

You are deluding yourself if you think you can buy much in Sydney for $1m, you wouldn't get a house within 30km of the CBD or even an 1 bed apartment in Eastern Suburbs.

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It's still nonsense. Not an apples with apples comparison.

Yes. Sounds a lot like Auckland doesn't it. Except Sydney is a much better city and has much higher salaries.

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It's not nonsense though, it's far more reflective of the real price of buying a place in Sydney. Also, Sydney ranks third in housing unaffordibility with Auckland and Melbourne behind at 5 and 6. It's an urban myth that you are going to rock up in either city and be able to magically afford a house. It is possible you can earn more and rent better however.

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The median price is reflective of the real price of buying a place. You know... actual sales, instead of a subset of those sales.

Australia is an unaffordable place. Sydney is as bad as Auckland. However, I could rock up in Melbourne or Brisbane and afford a place just fine thanks.

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You need to compare apples to apples, the median "Acution" price is not the same number which REINZ is reporting here.

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Have a look at the ratio of auction listings to non auction listings on trademe.. there isn't much of a difference.

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There is A difference though.

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Well in Ireland when house prices crashed they brought down the entire economy. A net inflow of migrants for many years was suddenly reversed as jobs dried up and so many people packed up.

A boom os often caused by compounding effects (e.g. high population growth, restrictive building laws, cheap money etc.) which often unwind all at once. I suspect that a similar thing would happen in New Zealand if we ever had a sudden or sustained drip in house prices.

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The New Zealand economy is going to be bought down by this.

Anybody tied to this country ought to be absolutely terrified of what's coming.

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On the one hand, academically thinking I'm inclined to agree with you. On the other hand I think plenty of people will still emigrate here despite insane costs and on the third hand the govt will just keep pumping.

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Ireland thought that as well, they went from a debt level of under 24% of GDP and that blew out to about 120% of GDP over 3 or 4 years when the housing market crashed. At the start of that crisis Ireland had a slightly higher level of public debt but a lower level of household debt.

Ireland's big error was trying to save it's banks, it was trying to catch a falling knife. Most people eventually realised that it would have been easier to set up new banks than save the bad ones

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Yep .... and the migrants, many of which were renting simply went home. Plenty of news programmes from RTE on youtube showing what happened.

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Investors are asleep at the wheel, 'the sleeping giant'

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Yes but Ireland is on the EURO so they can't control there monetary policy. They are at the mercy of the ECB. NZ on the other hand can opt for an inflationary blow out. It will turn our currency into something similar to those in Latin America but at least we won't have the severe recession (like Ireland) which were to occur if they were to raise rates to try & chase down inflation. In the long term I would argue the sever recession is proabably the better option but Orr, Robinson & Jucinda will opt for what is the better option in the short term

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"Robinson & Jucinda will opt for what is the better option in the short term" going by their behaviour over the last year, they have completely checked out and just killing time, avoiding and delaying, and trying to distract the average kiwi (who has no idea) for the next 2.5 years. Perhaps JA will have another baby and the heat will completely come off her, judging by the moronic mentality of your average voter

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Squishy
I agree some risk of a correction . . . and for that reason I have posted that those with large mortgages should start preparing by being prudent and start paying down debt.
However, sadly either some don’t know what that means while others rubbish the need to cut back on discretionary spending.
One needs to be prudent and while there is some increased risk of a correction, there is also some likely upside to mortgage interest rates in the next few years . . . and that is not considering the risks associated with personal factors (accident, sickness, temporary loss of job, marital issues . . . ).

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Ireland was about over supply though wasn't it? Otherwise the suburbs of unfinished houses would have been completed.

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"and there will be many lessons that will be taught to finance and econ students"

One of the lessons may be that we don't have such students......

:)

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I found the Elon Musk v.s. academia chat very interesting last year: https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-decries-m-b-a-ization-of-america…

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I think it will all collapse.... central banks will try and manipulate the yield curve but ultimately it will fail. They will simply product a doom loop that will effectively pull the plug on all of the debt.

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0-100 real quick!

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Princess tooth tooth and the fat controller still considering thinking about making some decisions at some stage in the distant future.

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Yes but only after they've received advice, run focus groups, put it out for consultation and... my personal favourite, had a meeting about a meeting in which they made another meeting.

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I fully expect their ultimate grand decision to be the formation of a working group. Jesus wept.

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Of course it will! Why do you think policy wonks are paid so well, they are complicit and know their advice will be binned, trashed, 'file 13' and never acted on

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It's been said before but bears repeating - how does anyone who wasn't quite in a position to buy pre-covid not just look at this in despair and give up? I mean seriously, how demoralising must it be to see any effort you put into education, training, a career be completely eclipsed by these insane price increases. How can anyone build a stable life for themselves in this country anymore between this and the nightmare that is renting. I think other commenters are right that anyone with skills they can utilise in another country will be out of here when the borders reopen, big upticks in mental health problems and other social problems for the rest.

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It will be like Ireland and the young people will all leave because they can't afford to live there - right at the same time as you're building large quantities of houses.

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That's what I did in 2010. The mania here and now is so reminiscent of what I saw in the noughties in Ireland. I was lucky then, hadn't bought my first home and had no ties so was mobile. I pity those trying to get into this market now, I hope I don't see a day when I pity those who did get in and have their lives ruined by a crash

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Interesting to get your perspective. People here are (in my view) very ignorant to how bad things could get based upon this greed and mania we have with property (and specifically property investment). Its not a way one street - prices can fall and when they do it can take the entire economy down with it.

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No, the ignorant are those who didn't see this coming and poo pooed house prices rises here over the last 4 years. You keep warning of a crash while others are making life changing money. So keep commenting...

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Whats the point in making 'life changing money' if its destroying the fabric of society and the stability of the entire financial system?

That's just bloody stupid.

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you only make life changing money when you happen to make the transition from one form of wealth into another during a major crisis without loosing any of its purchasing power relative to what you had before.

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I feel kind of lucky that (without going into too much personal detail) my partner and I are in effect 'hedged' against property rises/falls to some degree. However, if I were a millennial looking to buy I would be looking to beat the system in any way I can rather than buy at this particular time in NZ. Any young person who is unsure, perhaps do more research into - things like look back into the crash of 2008, research, take note of Audaxes comments, look into youuutooob on this, also the canary in the coalmine - businesses shutting shop (see David Jones in Wgtn closed up), but especially what is happening in the USA in this regard, as NZ will be a year or two behind

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I think we will become like Ireland, truly. People leaving in droves, to Aussie and UK (full circle) People who were born in 70s, 80s are used to far better than what is being foisted upon them now

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Young people should leave. Just leave. There is no future for them in NZ and they will do better overseas, certainly in Australia. It's what I did and have no regrets. Everyone spread the word!

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Just heard from a long lost mate whose children both have Aus partners. One went years ago and the other just went and earning way more in care work then ever could here, renting an apartment waterfront in Brisbane and bought a boat. Hasn't bought a house but needless to say probably could there and in the meantime enjoying a superior quality of life than on meagre subsistence wages and paying rent in NZ.

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Many “young people” left 10-20 years ago for better life/opportunities , a lot of them are now back and have nothing at all....

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Sure there might be a 'a lot' but I doubt it would be most. Those people would also have 'nothing at all' if they stayed here.

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Anecdotal. Like you, I have no stats to back this claim up but I'd guess more came back better off than didn't. If they've worked for a firm in London for 10yrs then coming back to NZ they're more likely to land a better gig than if they had stayed in NZ. They probably travelled too with is a non-monetary benefit. If they we're good with money and earnt a healthy pot of pounds then converting them back to NZ will help. All in all on a general basis the young are better off heading overseas even if they come back 10-20yrs later. I'll be encouraging my kids to do so when they're at that age.

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I hear what you're saying. I work with older people still doing hard physical labouring work post 65. Life circumstances for various reasons resulted in them currently renting not owning. I've therefore made it a quest to help them to buy... something... anywhere.

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D581...If we do not make drastic changes very quickly I can see this whole thing driving an exceptionally damaging type of migration swap over the next few years. I can see hundreds of thousands of young, skilled, business savvy NZ born citizens fleeing for greener pastures only to be replaced by (mainly) unskilled, third world economic migrants.
Currently we are almost forcing droves of our own children to flee their own home in search of a place where they can find a decent paying job (rather than being undercut by desperate migrants, prepared to do anything to avoid returning to their own country) and somewhere they can afford their own home or not have to pay 40% of their income in rent.

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Already happened. Look at the multitude of unskilled immigrants who have near worthless IT degrees/Bus degrees working in cabs/uber/retail. NZ is irrecoverable, the gap between have/have-not will widen. Crime will go up and it will start reflecting some Sth American countries e.g. Argentina. Devalued currency, massive taxation and an increasingly dependent sector on handouts.

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This.

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Cheetah..if you have been to Manila, JoBerg or Delhi you will know why so many of them will put up with anything to avoid going back for anything more than a holiday or to recruit some customers they can earn money (and often obtain slave labour from) in return for assisting them in obtaining NZ visas and residencies. It is a self perpetuating cycle that must be broken.

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And watch serious crime levels explode too. NZ will be ruined by this as indeed have many other countries. We’ll all be carrying guns and not allowing our kids to go anywhere on their own.

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Well put.
And not only is housing here f#$$en expensive, so too is the general cost of living.
Housing might be expensive in other parts of the world, but at least in many countries the cost of living is way lower than here. And wages are higher.

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And the housing is of better quality.

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You hit the nail on the head. I've lived in a lot of countries and have to say that although the cost of NZ housing astounds me, it is what you get for the money in this country which is astounding. I looked at a property last weekend (asking over $1m) and it was single glazed (SI) and only had an open fire in the living room to heat the entire house.

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The reality is that land prices are the main thing increasing, not house prices. Sure, there are some issues in NZ with the cost to build a house (regulation, regulatory capture of the building materials industry, difficulty of importing into a small, far-away country), but those are far smaller issues than the big one: there is limited land available and people are speculating on it with leverage.

Chances are the property you looked at had either a lot of land, or a decent amount of land in a good location (or a tiny amount of land in an amazing location).
For a developer, the existing house is actually a net negative to the lot, because they have to demolish it first before building.

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Correct

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And that is why the houses are of poor quality, as any savings (stripping of quality) they make on the house side to 'save money,' gets captured by the most restrictive part of the system, which is the supply of land, hence land prices go up.

It's a negative-sum game of lower quality and higher prices. The only winner being the land bankers, the real loser, the end homeowner purchaser, with the middlemen developer/builders sometimes getting either/or.

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Yes - margins on land are massive. One consideration in reducing house prices is for government or local authorities to buy & develop land; & release it to the market with suitable tags - ie., FHB, or house build limit etc etc. Could shave $200,000.00 of the final price of a completed new build

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Fritz,,,NZ dairy products are cheaper in Las Vegas than in Taranaki!

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Agree, and it's broken markets wherever you look - housing is a huge one but it's also groceries (2 main players), electricity (a handful of companies, vertically integrated gen-tailers), building supplies (2 main companies), teclos (3 providers), fuel (4?) and it goes on. I can accept we may not have the population to support deeper markets and our isolation is an issue, but surely that just underscores the need for some proper regulation to try and try to bring about the conditions you'd expect from better functioning markets.

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D581
Re: "how does anyone who wasn't quite in a position to buy pre-Covid not just look at this in despair and give up?"
I agree with your sentiment.
However following Covid for most if not all of last year the common cry on this site by posters was that house prices were going to fall 30 to 50%. Yes, "just wait until the job subsidy comes off", " but just wait until unemployment rises" etc.
I still remember Foreign Buyer's posting last March/April: "Anybody buying a house now is officially stoopied"
So yes, it is frustrating for many FHB and they have my sympathy as the goal posts have got further out and I hope to see affordability improve for them.
However, for those that were bleating for all of last year - and they know who they are - I have no sympathy: their decision so they need to live with it.

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Well as you've quoted, I was referring to people who couldn't quite make it happen before this madness so it wasn't really a choice. I know many couples in this position on above average incomes and no family support, for whom the goalposts move away from them faster and faster.

Even if in a position to buy I don't bemoan anyone who decided it was too risky or thought a correction was coming. It was some ridiculous uncertainty to be making such a decision on, and a very small window before things started going crazy again - bank forecasts were predicting great depression levels of unemployment by the end of the year. Without the massive credit injections from central banks we very well could've seen big drops and buyers immediately in negative equity.

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I’d put myself in this group. There were probably a lot of us facing pressure to get into massive debt and take a big lifestyle hit to “get on the ladder”. But when prices hit escape velocity it was more of a relief. Labour has made the decision for us: a one way ticket out of here.

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Great comment, lots of truth there.

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Yeah, I'm in that boat. I'm in the potential-FHB cohort but was already reluctant, thinking prices didn't make sense, and now I don't even have to think about it. I can just sit back and watch the madness and think about an exit strategy.

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The worst part is that rents are catching up with the insane mortgage payments so you're screwed eith way

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Rent is what no one is yet thinking about, its a double whammy to FHB. There is always talk here that rents cannot just keep going up due to wages but they can, its just going to take an even bigger percentage of what you earn. Inequality is happening now at an alarming rate, we have had years of damage in a matter of 2 months. The government could see this happening months ago and could have started to put the brakes on but they continue to ignore it to this day. The backlash is going to be serious.

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You have raised a really good point there D581. How DEMOTIVATING this all is for young people, sending us further into the doom loop

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What a joke this disaster has become.
And what a joke this government is.

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The joke is on me - I voted for these air-heads. They used to be the party for the working/saving man, now they appear to be owned by the man.

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Aroha.

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I hear yah. I voted Labour in the off chance they actually were going to do something about housing and the inequality it causes. Instead we got National 2.0. Jokes on me. Natbour are same same just differences at the margins. I'm going TOP if they're around. Some say wasted vote but I bought into that last time and went Labour (Nats would have been even worse) and in hindsight that seems more a waste of my vote.

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I'm exactly the same as you on this.

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Me too sadly. Won't make this mistake again.

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Preeeecisely. This is what I kept banging on about before the elections, the REAL wasted vote is voting for idiots that do nothing to address the crises we find ourselves in. Vote different, TOP has plans to address all of these issues, particularly housing, mainly by restructuring the tax system.

Had enough of "voting for the winning team, but not seeing any change" yet?

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I voted TOP last election. It's a pity they got less in 2020 than in 2017.

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They always increase income taxes so can hardly claim to be for the working person.

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That old chestnut. Judith - "look into my eyes..."

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What a joke governments have been for the past 20 years...

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The National Median House Price is only 220K off a million. I believe in you Boomers :) Pump It Hard!

I reckon you guys could get it to a million by years end. Just remember, even though loan to value has and is increasing - this is often offset for you by house price inflation.

Get the median to 1 million, then maybe, MAYBE take some profit. I actually reckon you guys could get the median over a million.

NZ Houses to the Moon. Good luck Boomers, you've put a lot of effort into this bubble and it's continuing to pay off.

I rent, but acknowledge older generations have managed to corner the market in spectacular ways. Congratulations on your profits (realized and paper) you guys have banded together well.

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Yup the boomers certainly know how to repay the younger generations who have made extraordinary sacrifices for them when dealing with COVID19.
Absolutely Disgraceful

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My landlords are Boomers, they're the best landlords I've ever had. They're exceedingly decent people and have ALWAYS addressed issues with the property promptly. I can't say a bad word about them tbh.

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I'm talking more on a generational level not a individual.

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I understand :)

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Yes, you need to dehumanise them to hate them. It's hard to hate people you actually meet who are generally pleasant and well-meaning.

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You are absolutely right Zack. On behalf of a lot of boomers out there, I apologize. I have two kids, both saving for a house and every time they are getting close to having enough for a deposit, the goal post keeps moving.

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To be fair, plenty of Gen X and younger are contributing to the madness.

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Zach,,,those boomers pumping it harder than Ron Jeremy. Just wonder if their fall from grace will be equally spectacular.

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After a large run up; it is smart to take some profit off the table. NOW, I do reckon if Boomers stay banded together they can pump the medium price to 1 million.

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Boomers with property are just 'brothers from another mother' of WSB and Gamestop. If we all hold together then we can keep this insanity going and winning. Diamond hands boomers...HOLD!

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Hard out, they can definitely pump it higher too. HOLD Boomers! At least until the national-median-price is 1 MILLION. Diamond Boomer Hands - classic.

Their arthritic grip is strong - pump it up!! I believe you guys can do it :)

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Zack Brando the boomers will sell long before the gen x will because they've seen this all before. But they'll sell quietly without any fuss, no advertising on TM, but agent will reach out to a select group of 'special buyers'

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Who are the paper hands selling under 1 mil?

Lets pump this.
Empathy
Aroha

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Really looking forward to this being a nightly feature on RNZ Checkpoint like it was when Nick Smith was in charge of the housing response.

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Be kind. Hugs and kisses. Team of 5 million.

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Davo,,team of 5.3M please. 5M permanent residents and over 300 000 temporary visa holders.

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There's 80k houses right there.

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The country is running out of the "good Stuff' to break out each month. They may have to succumb to Double Brown soon.

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When the DB runs dry we can take a step down and keep on partying on NZ Lager... the drink of kings.

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Probably a good moment to remind there's a Parliament petition to implement a capital gains tax on residential property:

https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/petitions/document/PET_102512/petition-…

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Yep.. A reserve bank governor playing the role of fox in the henhouse.
A finance minister who is still not sure it is happenning.
A prime minister obsessed with kindness and having all the financial acumen of child breaking open their first piggybank for a sweetie trip to the dairy.
How could it be any different?

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representative trend line:
4 suburbs in Auckland: Milford, birkenhead, Glenfield, Albany
November YoY sales were up 78%
In February it was 52%
Market peaked a while ago, probably about 10th December.
it is cooling, not crashing.
Expect this to continue for a few months.
Til July, then real decline will set in, in sales and slowing price increases.

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Thanks for analysis , Mike!. It is still looking depressing though. Average wage in Auckland is nor rising 10% MoM

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You say this sort of nonsense all the time. And it's always a few months away. "XYZ will happen in 3 months, fact." I call BS.

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it is not a few months away. Point is that rise has peaked and is rising more slowly, hence the bell curve is dropping, like virus trend.
It is not going to re-peak. hence the turn is in, as I stated in February.
I have the stats. You don't

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You have all the stats under the sun. And you continue to be wrong every single time.

You use these stats to try and find some sanity i.e. a decline in prices, or some sort of day of reckoning.

But it's not happening. It's not a market. If it was, it would have fallen over several times by now. It's a government mandated ponzi scheme and will go on for a very very long time.

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Slowing price increases is not the same thing as declining prices. And given the state we're in now, even if we have only 1% price increases for the next 30 years, and 3% income inflation (which is higher than we've had at any point in the last 10 years) houses still wouldn't be affordable (less than 4x incomes).

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What goes up must come down. Its just a shame that 30 years of policy means when it does come down it will take the economy with it.

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"What goes up must come down".
Only in a world constrained by gravity.

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WOW!

THAT IS 10% RISE IN ONE MONTH.

UNLESS GOVT ACT FAST AND ACT NOW - FOMO CREATED TODAY WILL GIVE RISE TO........

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Government action? Well good luck with that.

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If that figure is correct 10% then I just made 1.5 mil go figure ! Have to update the boat..

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Up $100K in just a month means no problem if they shrink that much in a month.

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No no no no! You need to be re-educated. Prices will only ever be allowed to go up. Please repeat that 100 times a day until you believe it.

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Another hugely successful government plan to build more affordable homes. actually they didn't build any homes. Are we on Kiwi Build version 2.0 or 3.0?

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Look at trend of mania decline:

Nov-Nov YoY sales for Auckland (2019 v 2020) were up 65%
Feb-Feb YoY sales were up 34.6%

Similarly in Manukau City it is 71% v 47%

For NZ excl auckland it is same trend, at lower %s

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and for the average first home buyer- that just added 10-20k to how much deposit you need to save and another year of renting whilst you save that amount of money.

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And another $100k of principal you have to pay off sometime.

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In a bad economy drowning in debt with inflation risks and potential interest rate rises.

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And up to another $100K of interest you have to pay on that principle. Its a double whammy. Any gains are a double payment.

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Yup. So someone who buys right now pays 20k more in their deposit. And 102k more over the life of the loan (assuming, very conservatively, that rates stay at 2% for the life of a 25 year loan, which they definitely won't). So an extra 122k all up. Assuming an effective tax rate of 25% (again, conservatively) that's an extra 6,500 a year you need to earn. The average household income is what, 100k? How many people got a 6.5% salary bump last year? I certainly didn't, and I certainly don't expect to get that this year either.

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Have no fear. Aunty Megan has the answers. Does anyone remember the question?

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If she had only managed to get 42 people into homeownership she would have had the meaning to life, the universe, and everything.

What was the question again?

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delboy... nothing to do with houses. The question was, "How many donuts did you get through during the Oprah interview the other night?"

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To think of all those poor suffering real estate agent businesses too that are just finding it so hard that they still cannot pay back the wage subsidy.

They really must be doing it incredibly tough at the moment.

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Guess what they are doing with their increased commission payments?
From the agency cat, to the individual salespeople to the franchisee to the master franchise owner - they are all ploughing their profits back into the one and only market that's guaranteed never to fail.

If Adrian ever wanted to set out to build a Financial System with maximum instability - it would mirror the one he oversees at this very moment.

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A lot of blame-shifting comments, methinks.

It wasn't this Government, nor the last nor the last nor the last, which bid on one single house.

It was individuals, keen to 'make money'. Same people who voted for their hip-pockets.

Caveat Emptor.....

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I'm worried now about the poor property owners who decided to sell in October, November December...
Perhaps there is some stimulus package we could construct to help them recover from the gains they missed out on - that 100-200K was stolen from them.

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Bye NZ

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More like Buy NZ - Pump it Up!!

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Man on the moon by 2023? F*** NASA and Elon. Let’s put Hamilton on the moon in 2021.

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If you don't now understand the definition of non-value-added costs, then after this you never will.

These are extra costs above and beyond any intrinsic value in the asset. This is normally caused by restrictions in the market that cause demand/supply imbalances, ie in this case the artificial pump in demand with artificial supply restrictions.

Al Capone is attributed with saying that he found it easier to get more money with a kind word and a gun, than a kind word alone.

Jacinda Adern is saying to be kind, and the restrictions are the gun.

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And the non-value-added cost component in the value of a NZ house is approx. 50%, with approx. 80% of that in the land price.

How the hell are individuals expected to care about a sustainable planet/lifestyle when Govt. policy encourages so much added waste costs (and the wasted effort to earn that extra money as a purchaser) into our housing prices.

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Exactly. People can't care about the planet or even other people when they are struggling to make the payments on the house, and the alternative is to pay almost the same amount in rent?

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As a mid 20s high income earner that is unable to continue growing the required deposit at the rate it is growing I am over this incompetent govt and corrupt RBNZ.

Seeing the sheer size and amount of NZs money shipped off in the form of excessive profits for Australian owned banks while indebting our citizens and locking increasing amounts of capital into unproductive assets I am disgusted by the lack of leadership our policy makers are showing. I am even more disgusted by the siphon from NZ to Aus stripping away the future for me, my peers and the many generations to come in this country.

I firmly believe there is a case for treason against Adrian Orr and very seriously am putting together a case and seek legal counsel.

Does anybody here know if it is possible to take a central bank through our court system?
I am 100% ready to take this broken system down

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Very very hard I suspect. You'd have to perhaps prove they were outside their mandate and they knew it and did so for personal gain - corruption charges.

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mens rea - intent

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Your money is better served with a one-way, premium ticket to the Gold Coast my man.

By now there is no doubt the RBNZ is seriously at risk of compromising its mandate for financial stability, but whether you care about that probably depends on whether you have 40 years to live or 20 years to live. They are unlikely to be reigned in any time soon, and by the time they are, it is us and our kids who will be copping the consequences.

Were it not for family, I'd be on a plane to Oz quick-smart and doing my best to get citizenship, whatever it takes. NZ is too far gone and no one is coming to the rescue. Don't count on an inheritance either, the same mob who are making this mess worse will argue they deserve that more than you do, even though they're the ones currently fanning the flames and making life unbearable for young Kiwis.

One way or another, you will pay.

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I think the FED has stepped outside it’s mandate too from what I’ve heard. Danielle DiMartino Booth has spoken about this. As all central bankers are following the FED then it’s highly likely the RBNZ will have done too. There will be repercussions and people may go to prison but not until the whole thing has blow up, the dust has settled and the new monetary system has been introduced. This has been close to 100 years in the making but really took off after 1971. That’s when the money is created as debt mantra came along. Also explains why graphs about housing stats only usually go back to the 1970’s or 80’s...... Today exponential debt growth is the only game in town, any town, anywhere in the world.

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Unfortunately the better option is to just leave. Trying to take down a state backed entity never works without being viewed as treasonous yourself. But I agree with you - what fiscal and monetary policy has done to younger people should be viewed as criminal (and might be in the future). It isn't right.

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Your comments are worth more than an up-tick.

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The Australian Banks are banned from paying dividends to their Parents

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Lorax... try to make a citizens arrest. LOL. Good publicity. A group tried to arrest Kissinger for war crimes quite recently.

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Governments a voted in by people that actually vote. Hint - all boomer and non boomer speculators vote.

From my perspective of employing sub 35 year olds for the last twenty years, many were more inclined to exit to Aussie and or London as the easy option than actually voting for meaningful change. The lawfirms and Accounting firms now have exit staff in their training programs because many are no longer leaving NZ after completing their third year. They to make desk space for the new grads to enter in at the ground floor.

If all eligible voters under 35 actually voted for something meaningful to change the ponzi - see tax and housing reform from TOP https://www.top.org.nz/housingmarketreform as an example - then things would be quite different. But they don't - and so they are not.

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Averageman - you're missing a huge component of this: in 2017, they did vote for a party that said they would fundamentally change how housing is done in NZ. Who you vote for doesn't actually matter anymore. The only thing people are clinging to is the friendly marketing and branding - the end result is the same, no matter which box you tick. More people, fewer houses, less affordability. They've baked it in.

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There is definitely not a case for treason against Orr. The best you could do is a judicial review against the Reserve Bank Act (look at the purpose section), which would probably cost you even more than an Auckland house deposit circa March 2021.

Good on you if you give it a go, though.

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Lorax

It's almost impossible as central banks have engineered independance from elected govts over the years. The former German central bank the reichsbank was even outside parliaments control completely. The ECB is currently working on it now.

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Two things you should consider before you rush off into action. 1. The RBNZ stopped banks from remitting dividends in early 2020. So your claim that they are moving funds out of NZ is currently wrong. And 2. Bank profits have been declining recently after RBNZ regulatory action. See the tracking here. And actually there is a 3. The RBNZ has started the process requiring banks hold much more capital in NZ (even if they suspended it temporarily during the pandemic). They are about to reinstate it.

All are effective actions by the RBNZ - and they don't support your claims. (But the urban myths continue anyway.)

I also think they could do more and faster. But you can't really claim they are not doing anything. The things they have done have had a significant impact.

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That curve looks like it's approaching an asymptote

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Next months headline: "House prices in Auckland surge, median sales price is now undefined; Real Estate Agents baffled as to how to calculate their commission."

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Unless the market warps space time and lets the price go to infinity. Maybe that’s their end game

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Just wondering whether this spike is due to a lot of investors and FHB who know they won't be able to buy in March after the reintroduction of LVR restrictions, this would explain such a nonsensical behaviour.

Regardless we need a total BAN on speculative behaviour in the housing sector. Yesterday was too late.

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How is a buyer getting in ahead of the LVR changes going to sell what they have just bought when they want to?
Whoever wants to buy from them has to do so on terms more onerous than they bought at (the price payable has to be less, ceteris paribus, if there is a more restrictive % deposit applicable).
The only answer must be that the LVRs are seen as temporary, and those who buy now take that risk.
In which case, what's the urgency?

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The difference between a 30 year term and a 35 year term?

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That's, sadly, a given. But does it affect the size of the deposit the Next Buyer has to raise, to jump the new LVR hurdle, regardless of the term of the debt?

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