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Westpac's economists predict higher mortgage rates will eventually start pushing down house prices

Westpac's economists predict higher mortgage rates will eventually start pushing down house prices

Westpac's economists are picking long term fixed mortgage rates to start rising this year and short term rates to follow.

In their latest Weekly Economic Commentary, Westpac's economists say they expect longer term fixed mortgage rates to rise, even though they don't expect the Reserve Bank to hike the OCR until 2024.

The upward pressure on mortgage rates will come form several directions, the report says.

"Firstly, we anticipate that the [Reserve Bank's] Funding for Lending Programme will not be renewed when it expires at the end of 2022.

"Secondly, we expect the RBNZ will gradually scale back its quantitative easing programme.

"Thirdly, the Reserve Bank is going to require banks to hold more capital over coming years.

"And lastly, market expectations of future OCR hikes are enough for longer term interest rates to begin rising."

Short term fixed rates will probably rise later.

"We expect that the two year fixed rate will start rising later this year, to about 4% at the end of 2022 and 4.5% at the end of 2023," the report says.

It also warns that rising mortgage rates will probably send house prices into reverse.

"With mortgages as large as they are these days, mortgage rate increases in the order of what we expect will be enough to slow the housing market and eventually send it into reverse," the report said.

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143 Comments

20
up

Does anyone know when Grant is due to make his big announcement? My understanding is that it was delayed until mid March. IE, now.

Some of them have made comments that "no firm decision" had been made as of two weeks ago or so. So there's still nothing to announce.

21
up

Disappointing and unsurprising.

30
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We need a word much stronger than 'disappointment' to describe what the working class feels towards Labour.

32
up

I'd get my comment removed if I used the words I wanted to describe how I feel towards Labour these days.

27
up

Me too. That's why JA needs hate-speech laws

LOL - me too.

How many millennials voted for her. After all she saved our lives with her approach to the COVID problem. If you voted for her you cannot attack her on the housing issue as she did nothing about it in her first term. New Zealanders love property so you never attack it. Being in power is more important than giving people a fair chance at getting their first home.

22
up

Anger. I just said this on another article. But for anyone experiencing it: Anger is often disparaged as an extremely negative emotion and it certainly can be. But anger is also a healthy and very important emotion that can help you recognize that something is very wrong and push you to seek change that will address it. I see a lot of people who are afraid to express anger openly, even at horrible abuse and injustice, because of the association with violence. I'm angry as hell. Anyone that cares about where our society is headed has every right to be.

11
up

Yes, that's what I feel every time someone says something along the lines of 'quit whining and just do whatever you can to buy a house'. What I hear is 'You not only must keep playing the game that has been rigged in my favour, you are also not allowed to express anger about the fact that it has been rigged.'

Absolutely. This is abusive behaviour that seeks to invalidate and repress your feelings as well as your sense of reality, so that you keep playing their game and stop trying to change anything. It's wrong and a lot of people are waking up to that and starting to feel very angry indeed.

18
up

Jenee mentioned the other day (Friday?), she thinks this week. I'll bet it's going to be another nothing-burger or something lame that'll be implemented in 3 months

I wonder if he'll also spend months having a think about his next moves when house prices are falling.

She was picking 22nd of March.

Sure .I expect some waffle.Long on rhetoric but short on substance.

Par for course.

Jenee suggested the week starting 22 Mar.

12
up

It was due in January, and postponed a couple of times during the debacle confrontation with the RBNZ, last update was that an announcement was due in mid March as you say but would not bet my hat they will make any significant announcements apart from extending the bright line test and some kind of assistance to deposits for FHB which will very likely make things even worse.

Given that March-May is Budget pre-announcement time, if it's budget related there will be an announcement closer to May. If not, maybe they'll wait until after the Budget to divert attention from the Budget or the announcement by splitting the commentary on both. Robertson is a bit Machiavellian that way.

Re the Great Reset??

It's highly likely to be early next week - the week starting March 22. 

Wether it is next week or today or after a month, will it help ?

Government ignoring the issue despite house price rising by 10% in a month reflects their I tent which is to support and promote the housing pyramid. Pyramid is so big and getting bigger by the week that government as well as RBNZ are themselves to be blamed for putting themselves in a corner where the housing ponzi will dictate and blackmail them.

Now, like it or not Jacinda Arden as well as Mr Robertson will be forced to promote and support the ponzi. Even bureaucrats who knows the pulse of the politicians knows what they fear the most - losing votes/power and the bureaucrats always play on this fear of the politicians in power to get things done or creating a situation where government does not do anything like the current housing pyramid, hence Jacinda Arden talking the same language of national that house price should always rise as are being made to believe by the bureaucrats for biased vested interest.

Ask Jacinda the great after 30% rise or after 20% rise till January, does it matter if house price falls by few percentage now that in itself will not erase the 20% or 30% rise that happened till January but may be some percentage from last month, which rose by 10%. Who will be affected, not FHB who are in for long period but may be speculators who may not be able to flip.

Be a Thinking PM and not run on hear say ( Take advise but make your own de ession) specially now when you do not have other political parties to talk to Like Greens and Winston Peters ( not that it helped but helped in passing the blame).

17
up

I suspect bank economist predictions will play heavily in Robertson announcements.... This is how it may play out from Roberston "Due to numerous econmists predictions (Westpac) and property experts (One Roof) that rates will increase later this year and the market is already showing signs of cooling by hitting the peak, we will be staying the course and RBNZ will continue to pump money in the system like never seen before. Don't worry FHBs, we haven't forgotten you, we have increased the grant caps by $50k. Good luck out there, Kia kaha & be kind"

52
up

Speaking to a colleague I was surprised to hear them describe the interest only mortgage they took out to buy their first home. To paraphrase "we can't really afford it, but we had to buy now before we lost any chance of owning a home".

That's right, they have taken out an interest only mortgage, with payments they will struggle to afford, in a desperate attempt to own their own home. This is where we are at. Its equally sad and scary.

14
up

I have witnessed a few of these cases myself, still the MSM and a few housing market cheerleaders around here keep repeating the message that there has been just responsible lending during the months heading to the reintroduction of LVR restrictions. Truth is that a lot of people are in trouble and will get just worse once rates start hiking in a few months. Best luck to your colleague, but the bank should be held accountable for this, since are the ones providing a product, you would never blame for his own food poisoning to the person buying clams at Pack'N Save yet some think this is OK.

New Zealand needs no recourse mortgages.

That would make these recklessly promiscuous banks learn to keep their legs closed quick smart.

30
up

You just need to run the numbers. 40% of investors are buying with Interest only terms. In our low interest rate environment moving from IO to P&I 30 year term would double the repayments. When prices inevitably fall, will banks keep extending IO terms?

Its a huge level of systemic risk. Adrian Orr loves to point out house prices are outside is "responsibility". He never mentions that it IS his responsibility to ensure the stability of the financial sector - and allowing this type of rampant high risk lending should never been allowed to happen.

13
up

100% YES on you final sentence.

But remember he said without taking the actions his has the last 12 months, we were looking down the barrel of a depression type situation - so central banks are screwed either way. Throw more money at the market so stop it collapsing, or don't and let it collapse.

So when he tried to increase the equity requirements for banks how much screaming and general tantrums were played out in the media generally claiming it would cost.

Both Govt & RBNZ, will take the same approach.. it's as per 'being mandated' by legislation, albeit it's related to 'weak/no' legislation, who will cream it to the max? Banks.
No difference if you may say to Alcohol, Sugar/Salt, Gambling, Tobacco industries etc.. everyone of them will cheer up the weakest point to exploit/extract money further & will lobby strongly against further regulatory measures.. aka.. which going to toning down their profit. Kiwis really do need to fully grasp the concept that their country has been running by this Neo-Liberal principles the past 20-30 years that ushered NZ/Financial sector into F.I.RE economy. So, that's why those rampant high risk being allowed to happen. To the point of cannot be 'undone', relying on future sovereign of tax payers bail out, in the 'super end finale'? -- NZ will bail out.. owned firstly to OZ.. or potentially to the new big master.

19
up

Jacinda, Adrian and Grant taking notes right now. Next announcenement: "We've decided that the housing market needs further stimulus, as a cooling now would push recent first home buyers to the edge of bankruptcy".

This is the reason for Westpac coming out with these sort of announcements right? Warning warning Roberston, you can't stop RBNZ and must help keep rates low...

Woohoo !! on the ladder....

Yeah of course it is much better for them to be in the renting camp paying more in rent than a mortgage and watching houses go up 100k a month.

All this hope and desperation a renter has of suddenly being able to buy at 20/30/50% of the current price is just utter delusion.

It seems crazy yes but if I was a FHB and could afford interest only (just) and had a deposit I'd do exactly the same - anything to avoid renting. I suspect many people would too despite knowing how risky it is.

I was a renter nearly 1.5 years ago. No way I would.

Nah, they've been wrong before.

Jock, they are the ones who lend out the money and control rates so I wouldn't be too cock-sure.
They will be reviewing their long term rates NOW in light of this view.

I think it's more reasonable to be go for the range between 780 - 850K national median.

If you think NZ is bad, just watch how the Aussies do it.

https://www.realestate.com.au/news/seven-signs-the-australian-property-m...

Loving the guy with his full campervan set up there 4 days in advance of block release out Western Sydney!

Go the West!!

On a scale of 1 to 10, how much do you believe this?

10/10. They do control there own mortgage interest rates, after all.

Does the left hand talk to the right hand? I'm sure another Westpac economist will come out with a contradictory view next week

Poppyc
Naive

So you agree with banks that house prices are going to fall now, so therefore you would be better to rent than to buy? You wouldn't want to catch a falling knife would you especially when you consider falling prices and rising interest rates - the worst of both worlds for a FHB.

I do not believe house prices will fall in the next 18 months - & unlikely after that

P8 believes banks economists are nearly always right and their views should be looked to as gospel because they have more information than you and I.

Please feel free to take that argument up with P8 as he will have to disagree with you, because the banks don't agree with you.

IO
I have never said that and don’t believe it - so don’t attribute such a pathetic comment to me.
I have regularly and consistently posted that economic forecasting is not an exact science and that once a forecast is made changing variables will mean that forecast needs to changes. That is the simple reality.
As forecasting is not an exact science, the measure of a successful investor is that he/she consider considers a range of opinions and come to their own conclusion.
So no, I do not slavishly follow any one economist such as you have posted that you do and by your own admission have now been calling a NZ bubble burst for six years on the basis of that.
In this instance it is a bank’s economists who are making a statement and yes, as the bank will be considering their rate outlook - and especially currently determining longer term rates - I put considerable weight on that. They will be currently looking at funding costs, so yes they will have a handle on where their rates will need to be - pretty simple really.
However I do not consider their outlook on the trend of the housing market as strongly as there are a considerable number of factors - such as future of Covid outbreaks, and government and RBNZ actions - that are unknown to them so I would be considering a range of views and the factors affecting that.

The question was will interest rates on mortgages go up within the timeframe suggested by Westpac? The prediction had nothing to do with house prices.

Honestly 3/10.

In Australia of course Westpac just lowered the 2 year rate last week to fuel a little competition.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/westpac-offers-lowest-two-year-fixed-r....
Of course New Zealand is not Australia , except when it comes to the banks.

9 out of 10. There are quite few signs indicating interest rate is on the rise. Supply chain disruption, overheated assets market, inflation is slowly coming back, long term US bond yield is on the rise. But people choose what to believe, it really matters what you choose to believe.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/us-bonds-treasury-yields-rise-ahead-of-f....

This is the 30 year US mortgage rate chart, or indeed similarly US bonds Almost anywhere on the historical chart, experts came out every year and said inflation was coming and guess what.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news/australia-s-central-bank-dismisses-...

"He said it was unlikely that wage growth would pick up considerably to lift inflation within the RBA's target range before 2024."

This is the guts of it
Without wage increases, interest rates cant go up
Unless you want the whole Ponzi to fall over

Yeah, I understand they are trying to delay the interest rates hike. But can they? Yes, they probably want wage increases first then have interest rate increased. But would business be profitable enough to do that? It's already approved that most debt has been taken by housing, not business. More and more investors put their investment into houses. Less money into productive industry, means less products and services. With central bank / reserve bank's QE, it will likely lead to inflation. It just matters when, with Westpac's economists prediction, it might come quicker than we think.
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/106222/quantitative-easing-surely-dri...

If you want to see how serious they are about wage inflation watch to see what the government services unions negotiate when the time comes...I suspect they will be in line with the 'inflation rate'

Really

14
up

Govt announcement will be as followed.

Increase in accommodation supplement..

Followed by increase in first home buyers grant by another 10k..

18
up

Fuel for the fire. Please not!

10k Grant for FHB will be drop in ocean and anything it will do is to add fuel to fire just like increase in a comodation supplement will help rent rise and landlord.

Not for those selling a house 10K more expensive than before, may help with their next step up the ladder ;)

10k extra equity should hopefully translate into $50k extra (assuming 20% LVR) for those selling a house.

Stand corrected ;)

And we then get a 50k rise in overall prices.

We need to reduce the money in the system and decrease the profitablily associated with drawing down on the debt. The increase in debt levels is the fundamental driver for this issue in the first place.

10k extra equity means another $40k of debt so 10% on a $500k house.

This is what I think we might see:

Higher fhb grants and caps (promote continued demand).

Higher investor LVRs (higher than 40%)

Differential interest rates for investors

Limited use of interest only except for new builds

Lower LVRs for new builds (less than 20%)

But I stand to be corrected. Or surprised.

Easy tiger. That would actually be doing something about it...

My strong pick is they will also increase Homestart / Kiwibuild price ceilings, eg. To 650k for 2 beddies and to 700k for 3 beddies in Auckland.

We need Yvil's input. He will know. I fell for this story last time, didn't listen to Yvil, and got burnt 10k when fixing for three years.

People don't like listening to Yvil (thanks for the comment)

I always assumed yvil was a girl.

10
up

I'm hearing from some well placed sources that banks are "very nervous" where interest rates are heading and the overcooked market in NZ - theya re also worried that people are dumping "bad houses" onto the market as the peak nears. Those sources are saying the following
1. From April - the banks will lift the lending standards by a full 1% - measuring homebuyers affordability by an additional 1% to ensure when rates do lift - new homebuyers will be able to afford them.
2. 3 of the 4 big banks require anybody with a deposit of less than 40% - both owner occupiers and investors to get independent valuations before approving loans
3. All the big banks want to see building reports on properties before approving loans and will refuse finance if there are any concerns on the report.

It would be very wise. When you have ridiculous price rises we have seen in the last month it does create some serious risks to over-cooked valuations.

I like all points 1-3 and believe they should have neen doing these all along. I don,'t live in ChCh, but know the market well and have seen lots of newly renovated (dash of paint and carpet to hide cracked floors), 'as is' houses being dumped recently.

12
up

I find it amazing that we some are posting flippant comments.
If I had a large mortgage and other debt I wouldn't be flippant but rather would be looking to paying down debt and especially questioning the real need for large discretionary spending.
The reality is that a 1% rise on a $600,000 mortgage is $230 a fortnight - and that is after tax (nearly $300 fortnight of pretax income).
Got a $230 a fortnight spare?

The reality is that banks should have taken this into account when issuing their loans. Not doing so has been irresponsible and they should be held accountable for any problems which this may cause, not the rest of the population which may not even have a home.
A lot of people have been told to get as much debt as they can service by either their banks, mortgage brokers, etc, all with a vested and short sighted interest, I have even seen such stupid comments on this website by some commenters. Since house prices always go up, it shouldn't be a problem right? Wrong! This leaves you with no disposable income and basically at the edge of bankruptcy for the next 30 years of your life.

b21
They did.
They applied a 6 to 7% stress test. So yes, you can afford it, but that doesn't mean that you maintain your current standard of living.

No they did not, they are issuing mortgages as we speak which will be un-serviceable sooner than you may think even with rate changes much lower than that, exactly as you mention above. I am aware of people paying over 60% of their income on just their mortgage now, with record low interest rates. What you suggest is for people to become slaves of their same banks who knew the problem this may cause but chose to ignore it for the profit of their shareholders.

b212
That just goes to show you don't know - you are incorrect and stress tests have been a standard practice for some time and banks continue to apply them.
The only change to the stress test is that banks have reduced the rate slightly from around 7% to around 6% although I think Wespac may be around 5.5%.
You need to find out what a stress test is - it is quite different to the percentage of one's income.

It must be a joke. You accuse others of being naive and also want us to believe you trust as gospel everything you hear from banks and real estate agencies. I would just believe this if you would have some vested interest, in which case it would be honest to share with the rest of us.

b212
Settle down.
If you want to argue, first make sure that you know the facts.
In this instance you clearly don't know how banks are prudent and asses as to whether a borrower is going to have the ability to service the mortgage under different situations including rising interest rates.
So go and find out what a bank's stress test is - that will be more productive.
Have a good day.
Cheers :)

The lack of an answer to my question highlights the very reason why I asked it to you.
Good day to you too.

Word. If you have a mortgage you should be slaughtering yourself to clear it (private residence). The day the company says "Hey Joe, thanks for the last 8 yrs but we don't need you" you can smile and walk away. Same when the missus gets pregnant, car breaks down....clear the mortgage at all costs. Sleep easy at night.

Yes, if you're the kind of person who spends 8 years in a job without progressing.

Sure, but you just have to look at what went on in Australia in terms of calculating a buyers expenses. These are the very same banks we have operating here, but yet RBNZ chose not to perform any review of similar lending standards.

Sure the banks may do a test at 7%, but the devil is in the detail.

10
up

There is no concept of risk among many piling into the home market.

12
up

Most people probably do have $230 a fortnight to spare. But something else will be sacrificed (luxuries, savings etc).

But psychologically, seeing an extra $230 a fortnight go towards a mortgage while at the same time your equity is being eroded may be hard to handle.

14
up

That's nothing. Try seeing house prices increase $25,000 a week just because Adrian Orr thinks trickle down economics means urine trickling down.

Let's see what savings I can make from my own budget.
- Netflix $6 a fortnight (who needs streaming TV anyway)
- Fruit and veges $20 a fortnight (who needs fibre and vitamins anyway?)
- Chocolate and sweets $20 a fortnight (save on dentists, w00t!)
- Life insurance $46 a fortnight (who needs to provide for their family's needs post-death anyway?)
- Car insurance $50 a fortnight (insurance is a rort anyway)
- House maintenance allowance $105 a fortnight (the plumber is lazy, why pay for that?)

There, done! Even freed up another $10 a fortnight for coffee!

Sky, alcohol, takeaways, new clothes, coffee, watches, smart phones....all adds up alongside the avocado. But the middle class kiwi deserves all this along as they have 'worked hard.' That mindset is why they won't move ahead. Play the long game, look 30, 40 years ahead...

I don't know anyone under 50 with sky. Or anyone under about 35 with a watch, for that matter. And as for smartphones- you realize a smartphone is actually the cheapest way to both have a phone and have internet access, a basic requirement for the vast majority of jobs these days? Most people would not get away with telling their bosses to contact them by carrier pigeon if they are needed after hours.

But $1400 for a smart phone is just wasteful. Mine cost $180 second hand 2 years ago and is still fantastic

Whatwillhappen...I have not had a telephone or even a watch for over 3 years now. It is my own personal challenge and very liberating.
And yes NZ is very expensive. I looked through my total monthly spending the other day (4 person family with no rent or mortgage) and to live our pretty simple, cheap lifestyle it costs over $4000 a month. NZ is great but you pay for it.
Maybe if I do buy a rental, I can save on the bills by becoming a real estate agent, "sell" a rental to my wife and claim a big part of the power, internet, rates, insurance, sky TV etc (in our owner occupied home) as expenses. Would be the only agent in NZ without a telephone. LOL

How do you know the people with $1400 smart phones are the same ones struggling at home ownership?

And what happens if large proportion of society stops spending $230 in the economy because now its going on the mortgage. That's a significant amount of $$ removed from spending on goods and services - which in turn is what creates/pays for wages.

That's the real issue and the one the government/RBNZ will be doing everything they can to avoid...so I'm expecting this hiking of interest rates is overstated and the likes of Westpac are just scaremongering to get peeps to sign up for the more lucrative longer terms. Only time will tell i guess.

A few months ago you were making fun of me for not borrowing as much as possible.

I wish Interest would shed some light on the levels of consumer debt collateralized by the consumers home, ie funding lifestyles and cars using newly gained equity in their house

I suspect those numbers would be frightening

RBNZ know. They must do as that's why they are supporting house prices, so as to increase spending.
Surely they wouldn't do it without knowing the exact figures.

that's why they are supporting house prices, so as to increase spending - are they CRAZY??

As I've said previously, if central bankers were psychologically assessed, many of them would have to be locked up as they are both the arsonist and fireman in the economy. Its like a form of bipolar disorder and they don't know which personality to use, or mental paradigm to see the economy through, on any given day or moment. 'We need more stimulus to keep debt growing.....but we already have too much debt'.

Haha IO thanks for the laugh, can you picture some of the concerned looks from the (unlucky) psychiatrist,"so you were trying to put the fire out by pouring on ...gasoline?"

Exactly - you can't be two opposing things at once. Unless you're a central banker.

I have been involved in the swimming pool industry for over 25 years. This industry has never seen numbers like it has seen over the last 12 months. A lot of pool builders with full order books until next year.

I can't help but think of the 1920's when I see the luxury spending going on. As well as the greed wrt stocks, property etc. People upgrading boats...all the while its built on a massive debt bubble.

"Thirdly, the Reserve Bank is going to require banks to hold more capital over coming years.

Freed from the physical constraints of actually holding cash, Basel essentially moved reserve requirements from the asset side of the banking system’s balance sheet to the liability side. Banks were no longer limited to multiplying credit from their reserves of national currency on hand. They could now produce credit and deposits from their store of equity capital. And a large segment of equity capital is retained earnings, meaning banks could multiply their own ability to create credit and leverage through using leverage on their own profitability. The status quo of the banking system has become one in which banks themselves control the levers of money creation – it is the wildest fantasies of the banking system come true.

But in depending so much on leverage, the banking system has become overly dependent on collateral. Collateral provides the lowest cost short-term operational funds while at the same time, depending on the particulars of each class of collateral, affords a reduction in the equity capital charge via regulatory definitions of “safety”. A repo transaction for a bank is a collateralized loan where a bank can fund assets at that lowest cost. In terms of the overall quantity of those assets a bank can ultimately hold and turn into profits, the securities that adhere to regulatory definitions of safety lead to the lowest capital reserve charges, and therefore provide both regulatory and funding leverage.

This accounting trick of regulatory safety meant financial innovation was needed to not only transform risky assets, but to mass-produce them as “safe”. Securitization of mortgage debt was one innovation widely used to create AAA-rated securities that were readily accepted as low haircut repo collateral, while at the same time using up as little equity capital as possible. The interest rate paid by the underlying mortgages and the traditional concept of risk/reward were secondary and tertiary considerations to how much leverage could be obtained and applied. Quality of assets was hardly considered in the pursuit for ultimate quantity. Link

Securitization of mortgage debt was one innovation widely used to create AAA-rated securities that were readily accepted as low haircut repo collateral, while at the same time using up as little equity capital as possible.

Thus we have the RBNZ interest rate reduction scheme FLP accepting RMBS securities as repo collateral, admittedly with a 19% haircut.

Good. The sooner NZ interest rates rise to a more normal., sane and sustainable level, the better for NZ. Global interest rates are on a gradual but relentless upward trend, and is just question of time before NZ rates follow suit. If house prices decrease significantly as a result, deflating but not crashing the housing Ponzi, even better. Orr can keep the OCR as low as he likes, but markets will go their own way regardless.

"Global interest rates are on a gradual but relentless upward trend, and is just question of time before .....

... before they have to decrease rates because the Ponzi will collapse.
Rates CANT go up (for long)
Because the deflation will be fatal.

(ever lower) rates is where income comes from

This fake information is floated to keep the hope alive for FHB's.
Now Govt. will think for next couple of months whether to take any action or not because in Dec 2021 the interest rate is going to increase (not more than 0.25% please), till then send the prices to moon.

Sadly, you could be right.

The highly leveraged risk-mongers will ignore this information as they step on each other to pile in head-first into the thick and sticky bog of eternal stench

Banks will start sponsoring food banks.

I think the biggest risk of a downside in the housing market is political in nature. Not so much from votes going from Labour to National but from Labour losing votes to the green's. Labours complete lack of action with regards to housing will turn a segment of there support base (young, middle class, liberal) away from Labour & to the green party. I could easily forsee greens polling close to 15-20% by next election with labour polling in the 37.5-43.5% age bracket. This means Labour would require the green's to form a government come 2023.

I guess it then comes down to how hard is James Shaw willing to fight for a capital gains/wealth tax. Will he sell out his party's policies for a few ministerial positions or will he dig in over the issue. I would argue the later as he knows that a good chunk of his support are disillusioned young voters who will never own there own home. Greens only poll at about 5% with just the enviroment & socialist vote.

That frightens me. Greens polling at 7% at the last accurate poll (the 2020 election).

Why are people so frightened of the small parties and so incredibly happy to be knowingly screwed by the lager two election after election.

I voted for another minor party because I saw no hope for the majors

Greens and TOP were the only parties with any policy substance.

I do believe Labour are bleeding young votes hard because of this. It's not as if National's gonna help, so yes, I think a lot of those votes will be heading Leftwards. I doubt the Greens are smart enough to realise it -- they'll probably think any extra votes are because people love their policy on gun control or something.

Yes, wouldn't surprise me if the Green's think their sudden popularity is due to an increased awareness in there environmental & social polices. If they make this mistake they will be back at 5% come 2026.

I agree, but wish there was a new party formed prior to the next election. I notice a lot of former Labour voters here, who are seriosly dissappointed in their performance. On the other hand National's only answer is the RMA and more houses (yawn). I was on Reddit yesterday (younger crowd) and couldn't believe how the housing crisis has turned a lot of them off Labour - where is the alternative? Not sure about the Greens as we need to lower immigration not raise it.

Labour & national have only attempted supply side initiatives to address the issue. National via there "special housing areas" policy. Labour via kiwibuild. Both parties failed miserably with there policies. I think green's will be on a very strong footing going forward with there demand side initiatives. Further they are only party that has publicly stated that their parties policy is to lower prices.

The answer is TOP, if only more people actually read and understood their policies. Most young people (even into their 20s) just keep voting the same was as their parents.

I think TOP need to simplify their message. The UBI they tried to push last election was perceived as being too hard/radical for your average voter. Too hard equals no vote. Nobody is going to vote for a party who's policy they don't understand.

IMHO,what they need to do. Capital gains tax 20% exempting family home up to $1,500,000. Use money from capital gains tax to lower income taxes.

Keep it at this. Don't even have a social, environmental, welfare or healthcare policy. Just promise to retain the status quo on everything except housing.

So if you dont sell then you pay no tax...thats why is has the a rates like tax.

Which is hilarious. If people tried to explain the complexities of calculating WFF or the accommodation supplement and its effect on productivity etc, it would be lost on voters completely.

There is nothing more simple than "Everyone over the age of 18 gets x, regardless of who they are. This encourages everyone to work and costs us less overall and is completely simple".

The policy you are talking about (I believe) is their tax reform policy. Yes, it's hard to get your head around and you are right, they could simplify how they explain it.

Capital gains at 20% doesn't fix the problem when people are taxed up to 39%. The flight to assets will continue as its still tax efficient. They are quite clear about a capital gains tax NOT fixing the problem. https://www.top.org.nz/isn_t_it_just_a_capital_gains_tax

The very first thing they shoudl do is change their name to "the housing party" or maybe even "the house party"

Yup my thoughts exactly. Further although TOP has a good following on social media & sites like interest.co.nz. For whatever reason they get little coverage by main stream media. This little coverage they get they are better off hammering home on a single issue that matters & not fluffing around with a wide array of issues.

Yep agree. They’re not in msm partly I think because they’ve gone into hibernation mode until the next election. (A real missed opportunity in the current climate I reckon). They’re website hasn’t been updated since the last one.

They aren't professional politicians, they all hold down day jobs as well as run the party. This is why incumbents have a decided advantage in winning elections, they are literally paid to have a platform.

That last sentence should make you realise why we have a revolving door of the same policies from Labour and National, just with a different colour and face.

Banks should be restricted on creating currency. Only allow new credit creation on new builds and exsisting currency on current homes.

It's simple, Govt. will not let the house price fall, because NZ economy is nothing without house boom. Renters who are waiting will be keep waiting only (train have left the station it is not going to come back), last year May i remember everyone was shouting over the rooftop that house prices are going to fall more than 10% and here we are it increased 38%.
So now you think Govt. have guts to control it (in dreams). It is on fire attend 4 Auctions and you will know the reality, believe it or not it will not going to happen, no mater what ever you write in comments no one is reading.

Interest rates have nothing to do with it... 2002 to 2007 100 percent increase with rates above 8 percent. Explain that westpac???

The bank cartel, try to sound OCR then LVR but will still reject DTI.. the sound from Banks, is actually where the RBNZ & govt 'have to listen' - NZ retail banks held every vital organs, the CB & govt just have to follow. Higher mortgage? Higher TD rates? - usually after RBNZ OCR announcement, so this is that scaremongering sign in which.. true in essence. Both CB & Govt don't want to raise the OCR for sure, but they'll will just follow the banks club, OCR will only be up... following of retail Banks upping their rates soon - again OZ win,.. poor Kiwis.

Not sure how much political power/influence by JA/Lab or GR/RBNZ - as clearly their last year & this year comment sentiments were all the same, price must go up.. albeit even 4%.. on top of 20%, it is a clear wish.
Now, how world market reacts? .. what more the govt & RBNZ can do? .. when 'market confidence' slipping away.. despite 'their numerous attempt to distort it'.. First thing in mind is that no response flight controls.

Maybe I'm just an eternal optimist but I'm still hoping they'll announce something effective.
Before the first lockdown I assumed they would introduce half measures as usual and make an absolute UK style balls-up. Here's hoping they actually do something effective now - they've certainly had long enough to think about it!

Attacking rising property values annoys those who own it and vote for them. It will not happen. She loves power and will only let it go when she has a better more powerful position to move into.

People have been encouraged to purchase houses or trade up over the past year on the basis that interest rates would not increase and would more likely go down. Increasing rates now would be a handbrake turn for the market.

It could also destabilise the economy since there are so many over-indebted people. Soooo, interest rates stay low, the party continues.

The economy was destabilised by allowing the debt to be taken on.