NZ Initiative says we need another 113,800 new homes by 2031 as demographic changes come home to roost

NZ Initiative says we need another 113,800 new homes by 2031 as demographic changes come home to roost

A report by think tank the New Zealand Initiative says this country could face a housing shortage of 113,800 homes by 2031.

The report claims official figures underestimate the scale of crisis, which is more serious than most people think.

New Zealand Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich says current construction levels are much lower than officially forecast, which has serious implications for the housing market.

"This is the greatest crisis facing New Zealand and unless we ramp up supply well beyond current levels, home ownership could be out of reach of most families within 20 years," he said.

"If we don't build at least 113,800 additional houses within 20 years, we could see Auckland house prices match or even exceed Sydney levels within that time.

The Initiative's figures are based on demographic changes  caused by an ageing population, combined with overall population growth and current construction levels.

The Initiative believes this will create a situation with more houses being empty nests that are occupied by older people, while other homes have more people crowded into them.

"You'll see more and more homes with one occupant while next door you'll see larger numbers of people crowded together," Hartwich said.

"The solution is simple. We need to build more and we need to build now," he said.

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No one is going build new houses unless there is a buyer able to pay. 
No govt is going to go back to mass producing 1000s of houses.   
Sections currently priced at 150k to 300k is too expensive. 
Still FHBs should do ok from today's announcement assuming they've been in KS,  
reminds you of Muldoons home ownership bank accounts, with tax rebates. Money could only be used for a house.  Used this for first home as a new build. Section cost around 15k!   

Aye.  For all thesze houses, where is the capital going to come from?

Where is the income to pay for all these houses?

If demand is that strong why aren't rents skyrocketing like they did in Christchurch?

The owners of the houses are driven by yield - it is capital gains that drive them. In Chch it is driven by yield.

Correct Cowboy.
Where is the money going to come from? More debt?
And you are also correct if demand was strong enough then rents would be increasing in Auckland, yet they are not, which = no rental stock shortage. 
One minute we read housing shortage, then we read no such shortage after all, now we're being fed there's a big shortage.  For every article which makes a point there's another which contradicts it. 
The purpose appears only to confuse and divide the public.
When rents rapidly rise then i'll agree there's a housing shortage.

2031? Nobody would even have a clue about 2021.

.... true , but at least they're throwing up a possible red flag for us to look at ...
 
When the Gnats came to power in 2008 it was obvious to everyone except them that we had a housing shortage in NZ , pre-earthquakes , pre-any-flipping excuses ...
 
.... 6 years on .... you reckon they did anything to improve the problem ?
 
Fore-warned is fore-armed !

I am old-fashioned and believe in market forces and a wider economic picture. NZ is obsessed with property and it is not a healthy thing. 
 
NZ needs to desparately catch up with the 21st century by developing modern, high paying industries. Lacking that and instead every dog and his mother playing the property market, a large sector of the community will always be locked out of the New Zealand quarter acre dream. 
 
Fat thumb regulation in immigration and rates would do the trick, too, but better fixing it by building opportunities rather than denying.

modern high paying industries?

where's your capital going to come from?  (Roger Kerr is over there (points to other) article trying to push your interest rate up.

Where is the money come from to pay the wages?

Why would you do it, if you were going to do it in the Poverty States of New Zealand?  (wouldn't it be better to start in somewhere nearer your rich customers who can afford you services).     In NZ the obvious place to start is with the industries we've already got...but any time they do well the RBNZ and gubbermint parasites strip them bare

Take the capital where all the others take it from. VC, govt, yes, even banks. Ridiculous, I know, how could a bank even think of doing anything other than mortage loans ... and why would govt invest in future, self-sustained prosperity rather than paying billions in Work n Income?
 
See how myopic we have become? We cannot even imagine anything anymore to prosper in NZ, except property speculation, dairy and tourists. What about software? Your customers can sit anywhere in the world, does not matter. After all you probably also shop at amazon UK.
 
I am telling you that the checkout chick at Pak-n-Saves or the Council guy writing parking tickets will always be priced out, unless something pulls them out of their yesteryears employment misery. If you want that you have to do something differently and not always the same. 

myopic...?   My _actual_ trade was programming ( in C ).  Couldn't get decent work so ended up computer tech for several years.  

that capital....sounds expensive.  VC?  from here in NZ? good luck ... and good bye to you project.   Government?  Perhaps you missed your calling as comedian.  

Seriously guy, you actually got to try some of the things your mouth is saying before you put your name to it.

the killer with the programming, is for the majority their is no way to pay the rent, let alone get the licensing and modules and compilers you need.  Yes, there's some great free and shareware stuff/open license out there, but often it's only enough to start.  Once you want to move forward you have to get the real stuff, which comes with real price tags.
 Andd yeah everyone wants the next killer-app, but, far more people are watching for new innovations from indies and startups so they can re-tune and re-launch a better product.

Remember old JFK, doing it because it is hard, not because it is easy?
 
I guess there is a good reason why people with brains and talent leave New Zealand and people like you stay behind. You have your way of convincing people :-)

It's a matter of support and connections (and family).  If I wanted to dump my family and go overseas then I could have made decent income.  But without the capital behind me, it's not an option to take family with me or to take a complete leap (again) into the total unknown.  It was tough enough being the first in my ancestoral line to university, and having not a clue about what to do when there.

So that's why I've spent decades working on why wealth works the way it does and why NZ, in particular, seems stuck in economic stasis.

And your posts sum it up perfectly.
You basically have no idea, throw platitudes/soundbites when you don't understand things and put toward swallow useless ideas.

As for "brains and talent" leaving NZ...not so much...as my South African friends say those people are "on the the chicken run".  I'm sure a worldly fellow such as yourself is familiar with the connotations of the phrase...

"You basically have no idea" ... wow, Cowboy, you are becoming more and more convincing. A true university educated intellectual, I see. Your ancestors would have been proud of such a brainy specimen of impeccable politeness and good humour. 
 
Millions of people incl. some very impressive Kiwis make it overseas, in case a cosmopolitan like you has not noticed. Nobody's fault that you did not know how to benefit from a degree or lacked the guts to leave and compete with the best. 
Astonishing that I am wasting my time on you :-) ... you are the picture of a miserly little kiwi pecking around in the ... oh well. 

Have you actually got anything of substance to add apart from personal abuse?

 

Take 10% ( the non- essential froth) off our immigration and in those  16+ years at 2 per house occupation the deficit could be nearly halved without any other action. 
The 'froth' may well be much greater than 10% right now so  because our economy makes us attractive but also because with more training action by business and government the present essential categories could be reduced dramatically.
That is not xenophobic either as the discrimination would be imposed equally across all except Australians unless that changes too.

Take 10% ( the non- essential froth) off our immigration and in those  16+ years at 2 per house occupation the deficit could be nearly halved without any other action. 
The 'froth' may well be much greater than 10% right now so  because our economy makes us attractive but also because with more training action by business and government the present essential categories could be reduced dramatically.
That is not xenophobic either as the discrimination would be imposed equally across all except Australians unless that changes too.

I think it is fair to say that most people, even in Auckland are housed, the problem is that too many houses are rental properties, maybe we have a look at that.
Couple of suggestions, if you are non-resident foreigner, you don't get to own anything, if you are a migrant, you don't get to own anything other than your family home for the first five years that you are here.
Dealing with supply will be a whole lot more difficult than finding a few measures to alter demand, and I think that is the place to start

The report is based on 10,000 nett migration per year, and assumes no move to generations sharing housing (so people living like they have in the second half of the twentieth century in very nuclear families)

Maybe that is a place to start - move away from the nuclear as we have with foreign policy - and figure out how to get along with each other better and then have the grandkids, mum and dad, and grandparents on the same property. get down to say 30m2/person and wallah - reno city. The Block with over 70's staring instead of the 20-30's.

For goodness sake , we need to slow down or stop rampant migration until we have a plan to house these folk in an orderly fashion.
To just pack them here in at a rate  of 50,000 new people a year , thats nearly 140 new migrants every day 24/7 and expect houses to spring up at a rate fast enough is lunacy .
We will end up with the traffic , and congestion  chaos one finds in Bombay , Calcutta and Bangkok

Talk about a 24/7 city then!
Great! What about the "slums"  - where will these start?

The NZ Initiative report is based on 10000 a year not 50000 a year.

Why does it take 3-4 months and cost of a luxury German car just to get a simple permit to build an average house?

Well said chairman,
we would like to build but just can't face interacting with the council and paying rip off prices for materials. The alternative of paying top dollar for an ugly inferior existing house is not attractive either. Sigh...maybe Australia ? Houses seem to be better built and councils not so rapacious,(or is this wishful thinking)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

With 3500 properies for sale on Trademe in the Auckland area under $500,00 and over 1600 proeprites to rent under $450 per week there is no  "crisis"

Page 1 of TM under $500k listings
First one on the page Enquiries over $500k
27 were 1 bedroom apartments
20 were sections
Most of the rest were advertised without a price