More listings but declining buyer interest could mean a quieter winter for Auckland housing market

More listings but declining buyer interest could mean a quieter winter for Auckland housing market

The remaining winter months may bring a quieter time for Auckland's residential property market, with buyer interest waning but new listings remaining buoyant, according the latest figures from Realestate.co.nz.

There were 9327 homes throughout the country that were newly listed for sale on the specialist property website in June, which was the highest number in the month of June since 2012.

It was similar story in Auckland, with 3369 homes in the region newly listed for sale in June, which was also the highest number in the month of June since 2012.

However there were big differences between the total number of searches made for properties in Auckland compared to the rest of the country.

Realestate.co.nz chief executive Brendon Skipper said the national voilume of traffic on the site across the entire country was comparable with previous years, however the numbner of users searching for homes for sale in Auckland was down 19.3% compared to last year, while the average amount of time people spent looking at Auckland properties was down by around a third.

"It appears buyers are moving away from looking in the Auckland area in favour of other regions," Skipper said.

"It could be a turning point for Auckland, with prices now at an all time high they're almost out of reach for the average income earner, with first home buyers the hardest hit."

And there appears to be no relief in sight on the price front, with the average asking price of properties newly listed on Realestate.co.nz hitting a new recpord high of $888,493 in June.

Those prices were also affecting the potential returns investors could achieve, pushing them to increasingly look outside of Auckland for properties.

That was showing up in a jump in seraches on the website for properties in Northland, Hamilton, Tauranga and Queenstown, which all recorded signficantly higher traffic in June coimpared to June last year.

"It appears Aucklanders still want to stay in relatively close proximity  to our biggest city, but in terms of affordability they are forced to move even further afield or they are making lifestyle changes," Skipper said.

Hotspots in Northland on Realestate.co.nz in June were Waipu, Whangarei Heads, Paihia and Tutukaka, all of which had significant increases in users looking for properties.  

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61 Comments

Are Aussie outcomes applicable to Auckland?

A decline in speculation has cut the growth in Australian mortgages to 6.9 percent year-on-year in May, the lowest since October 2014, according to data from the Reserve Bank of Australia. As lenders tighten home-loan standards and charge landlords higher rates, the expansion in investor mortgages slipped to 6 percent, the lowest since July 2013. Record prices are denting affordability, with Sydney values growing at the slowest pace in almost three years in the first quarter, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics. Read more

The banks are starting to restrict lending ahead of the new RBNZ restrictions. I suspect most savvy investors realise the market has peaked.

Bend the stick but not to the extend that it breaks.

I know few families who were trying to buy house in Auckland and of which only one was able to buy in February (that too as opted for a 2 Bedroom instead of 3 bedroom for a family of 5) and the rest have given up totally as had started from 600000 and went upto 700000 and then stretched themselves to $800000 but now even in 800000 are not able to buy decent 3 bedroom house unless you move to far off place so the logic is that it is better to rent than pay 800000 or 850000 and then also do not get the house of choice (Remember that even 850000 is not a small amount but in today's Auckland market is peanut). All of them are first home buyer so when they were buying for 800000 (Assuming pay deposit of $150000 or $200000 and an mortgage of appox $850.00 Per with with insurance and Tax) would had to do lot of change (As now are paying rent of appox $485 per week for 3 bedroom house in the area where they want to stay) in the way they spend now, so why do it, when cannot buy a decent house.

Instead few have bought an investment property in other parts of NZ between $300000 and $500000 and have rented it as with the deposit that would have paid in Auckland, with that type of deposit are able to do Rent To Mortgage in other parts.

In Auckland, entry at this level is a risk as chances of going up now are less then coming down unless you are buying for 8 to 10 Years.

Many first home buyer are now buying as feel missed out and stretching beyond as easy loan with the hope that if have any problem in repayment will sell it and make some money without realizing that the value can go down also at this stage and may land up in deep trouble.

Even if the Price remain stable, how many first home buyer can buy a million dollar house.

The Future of Auckland

Based on current rates of ingress and prices, Auckland will become a place of distinct enclaves

Three obvious ones will be

1. North Shore, the preferred destination for wealthy Chinese
2. Mt Roskill and Hillsborough the preferred gathering place for sub-continetals
3. The rest will become a retirement village for those old jafa's that hang in there

I would be pretty surprised if they can rent a decent, dry 3 bed house within 45 minutes commute of central Akl for $485 p/w. More like $585+

I agree, could have got $560 a week for two bedroom unit in Campbells Bay on the North Shore. Sorry but you don't need $800K to buy a house and I'm sure that $485 a week DOESN'T enable you to rent to the same standard as a $800K house. People that think its cheaper to rent than to buy are really bad at math and are not looking long term.

The simple fact of the matter is that most people who rent don"t have a choice (between buying and renting), their maths skills or otherwise have nothing to do with it. Those who do have a choice are quite likely to be taking a more long term view on risk than that indicated by your preconceptions. $800k on the shore now doesn't buy you much - a crappy do-up, leaker, or a low quality rental.

Exactly for 800 and 850 houses are not good so no choice but to rent as not everyone can afford A million dollar house.

Average wages does not support the house price so besides investors it is non residence rich buyer who have made it impossible for young kiwis to buy.

Reality is Aucklanders will be forced to migrate to make way for immigrants. Legacy of national government.

Is it good, time will tell.

The renting vs buying calculation depends on a whole bunch of variables, individual and economic. In my situation, I believe renting will work out cheaper for now. Nothing wrong with my maths, it got me through both my Physics degrees fairly well.

My math indicates that renting is far superior to buying. Could you please explain your math?

The summarized version of my reasoning as to why even if you own a house you should still rent. Renting would allow you the flexibility to move on short notice. renting is substantially fiscally superior. ( rent out the house you own and you get the tax you pay on the interest component of you mortgage back as a tax refund ), you pay less to rent a house of equivalent quality than you would to buy one, While renting (regardless if you also own a house), your money can be making more money for you (invest in real estate or bonds or whatever yield/risk combination you feel most comfortable with). There are dozens more reasons as to why renting is superior (too many to list properly). I own a house but still prefer renting over being an owner occupier.

I'm really keen to hear the reasoning as to why owner occupying is superior to renting!

My math indicates that renting is far superior to buying. Could you please explain your math?

The summarized version of my reasoning as to why even if you own a house you should still rent. Renting would allow you the flexibility to move on short notice. renting is substantially fiscally superior. ( rent out the house you own and you get the tax you pay on the interest component of you mortgage back as a tax refund ), you pay less to rent a house of equivalent quality than you would to buy one, While renting (regardless if you also own a house), your money can be making more money for you (invest in real estate or bonds or whatever yield/risk combination you feel most comfortable with). There are dozens more reasons as to why renting is superior (too many to list properly). I own a house but still prefer renting over being an owner occupier.

I'm really keen to hear the reasoning as to why owner occupying is superior to renting!

You are correct. They have been renting since long so $485 otherwise could be anything between $500 to $600 and this I am talking about Pakuranga.

Pakuranga is within 45 minutes of the CBD. If you leave at 4am.

There won't be any turning point unless interest rates rise, the banks cut off investment/speculation, or the immigration tap is turned right off. It's only funny money until you sell your property.

No its not funny money, its real money, you have an asset that is physical its not a bit of paper and you own and control it, not someone else.

Bollocks - ever heard of the Public Works Act.

Property is for those who believe in the rule of law , gold is for those who don't.

Do you keep gold under your bed? Do you get to keep your gold in a lawless land?
We do have rule of law here you know .

I think you misunderstand the comment . At least gold can be moved and is generally a universal form of "currency".

The comment is more about people - and how they think - rather than about the current state of affairs. While New Zealand currently is govern by the rule of law - that could change ( very, very unlikely - but it could ). The comment is more about people and how much they trust the government and society - not an investment strategy.

You're right I don't understand the comment, I still don't understand it. All I know is that property is really worthwhile owning. I wouldn't swap it for gold.

Now why doesn't that surprise me....

What's gold done for the last hew years? Drop from US$1920 to $1320. Great investment, AKL property's been the way to go.

Please read the other comments ..... the comment has NOTHING to do with gold as an investment strategy.

See? I'm not the only one who has no idea what you are going on about.

I've said that doesn't surprise me. I think you are being purposely obtuse.

Probably the most ill-informed and ridiculous comment I've read for a while. Amazing how you could be so wrong so many times with so few words.

That will happen by the end of the year apparently. 50% restriction for investors. No one else can afford to buy so prices will have to come down. koet immigrants can't afford to buy. Just a small group.

No they won't. Plenty of pre-warning to investors now. buy now or miss out. Then they hold on to the property. Number of listings reduces, and FHB competition continues to be high. The peasants will fight amongst themselves to join the ladder. Sad but likely.

I thought the share of housing owned by investors was increasing? If they stop selling and buying, the reduction in buyers outweighs the reduction in sellers. Hard to see that resulting in an increase in price.

Yeah as long as national party does not act to stop speculation will be hard with low interest and rich overseas buyers. Though may not happen now for no govt action but it has to happen - ecenomy as nothing can be one way street- so the national party can only delay it slightly by denial, lie and cover up but cannot stop from it hapening and the worst affected will be first home buyer who are buying now at peak for fear of losing whatever little chance they have now, if it goes up again is tempting first home buyer to buy house - a basic necessity which the govt has made it a luxary to have roof over your head.

Unless world event happens at this stage hard for market to stabalise as government is interested for the housing bubble to run.

Yes whenever it happens will fall like pack of cards unless better sense prevails and government takes some action to controlit now.

Unless world event happens at this stage hard for market to stabalise as government is interested for the housing bubble to run.

Yes whenever it happens will fall like pack of cards unless better sense prevails and government takes some action to controlit now.

Forget Auckland for a moment, what about other regions?

How about ........Kaitangata? a small settlement in the Clutha region

https://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/31964034/tiny-south-island-town-inundated-wi...

Well, well, well...jobs and affordable houses.

LOL 9 jobs on trade me, wonder where the thousand jobs are, also only 30 land packages for sale .
maybe their mayor has learned how to deal with mainstream media from JK, just smile and make shite up
http://www.trademe.co.nz/browse/categoryattributesearchresults.aspx?140=...
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/jobs-and-land-galore-in-kaitangata-20160...

Maybe the other 991 jobs sharetrader are for real estate agents! ;-)

I heard him on the TV this morning and they were seasonal ones at the alliance meat works etc, good luck with that

It's a nest of junkies and the major industry is home-made opiates.

May be now everyone has learned the art of lieing from .......and get away.

Not quite Zac. An affordable home will depend on the average wage being offered in that area. The job security in that area is also important.

And you seemed to of missed the main point of the article....that being Northern Hemisphere people looking to escape the turmoil. Little do they know that NZ is not the immune paradise they believe it is.

Don't tell them and we can keep our property prices high. Real Estate is all about perception.
Tell me again why NZ is not an immune paradise?

Homeless people

Kaitangata story. The thing is many of the provincial areas have lots of jobs, lots of high net worth entrepreneurs,and quality easy living. When a story comes along that shows things someplace might be much better than in Auckland, some common taters on interest.co seem confused and nervous.

Labour should have highlighted the bill in the media to expose national.

As long as national party is in government, one thing is for sure that though voted by kiwis but are working for their overseas friends. May be some behind the door understanding as a result denial and to cover up lies.

Maybe they haven't drawn too much attention to that evita because Labour didn't put in any provisions themselves during the China free trade deal negotiations or during their 9 years in power. Thus they TOO left the door wide open for NZ to be bought up by foreign interests from 2000 to 2008.

Their attempt was half hearted I believe.

My understanding is they did leave us able to make specific laws with the China fta but the tpp that has now means China has the same conditions as it

Like the media these days is ever going to wear that

Bayleys fined $2.2m in real estate price-fixing case

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/81681420/22m-fine-in-real-estate-pricefi...

I hope the government are watching Trump Brexit closely to see how inequality can destroy a country. If they don't do anything soon sadly NZ will go the same way.

It is well underway here. Once I would have never thought I would hear people in this country saying that it is ok if people have to go without housing.

I have been saying and wondering for years why the waterfront does not look like any other major city. and I guess it comes back to money and votes, hmmm which party again holds, misson bay, Devonport, pakuranga

Mind you, to be a bit fair, Auckland is probably different to a lot of major cities in temperate areas, in that it faces north/south, whereas the coast of Australia faces east. I could imagine really tall skyscrapers on the southern edges of a harbour as Kohi, Mission Bay etc are would create major problems for residential land behind them and I'd suggest that tall apartment blocks would be better on the northern side of the harbour.

Genius at work

Arthur Grimes, former RBNZ chairman delivers a hard-hitting speech, advocating a Gold Coast Surfers Paradise Golden Mile development along the waterfront from Mission Bay to St Heliers

What he doesn't mention is if you put 100,000 additional units/people out there it would require straightening Tamaki Drive from the CBD out to St Heliers, expanding it from its current 2 lanes out to 8 lanes, either buying up waterfront houses and demolishing them to do so or by reclamation of much of the foreshore, plus probably extending the commuter rail-line out from Orakei station to St Heliers (more compulsory land acquisition), or, dedicating 2 of the required 8 lanes to bus lanes

Can you see any of that happening ?

Where do these geniuses come from?

or

Is this just another Wellingtonion's brilliant thought bubble

Did anyone hear Patrick Gower on Q&A confront the PM with the figure for tour guides granted residency: 5917. I presume that was for one year. John Key said "oh well i'ts a 70 , $32B industry and people are crying out for staff in Queenstown. Once they gain residency they can drive buses.

People are crying out for staff in Queenstown because no one can afford to live there. Talk about a glib and disingenuous comment.

Shamubeel Eaqub makes some interesting observations

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/81656126/shamubeel-eaqu...

There has been a shift in thinking - Brext and Trump are evidence of that (and in Australia as well as there seems to be shift to the left).

From Shamubeel Eaqub's article

"The minority educated and successful urban population that has benefited from globalisation under-estimated the possibility of leaving the EU.

They could not conceive, how something that has clearly benefited them, could be rejected."

This I think is the key - people can't see beyond there own selfish motives and can't see that other people may have a different point of view. This is no better than the attitude during the British Empire days or the "rightness" Christian or Muslim beliefs - people are arrogant in the belief of their knowledge and their convictions / beliefs.

Investors have the increasingly difficult decision of where they get a return on their cash. Buying govt bonds for 10 years gives a return of just 2.3% pa.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/government-bond-yield

It looks like the London market is also at a "turning point". Front page of the evening commuter rag on Friday. Sentiment is getting slaughtered.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-house-prices-slashed-after-...

So much for the housing "shortage" and prices can only ever go up.

Brexit was a tipping point. I think people are now starting to realize that the emperor has no clothes. Trump could very well be another.

JKEXIT