A 'stocktake' of the housing market commissioned by the Govt paints a 'sobering impact of the housing crisis, particularly on children', says Housing Minister Phil Twyford

New Zealand faces a “deeper and more entrenched” housing crisis than had previously been revealed, according to a stocktake of the country’s housing sector commissioned by Housing and Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford.

The report paints a “sobering picture of the devastating impacts of the housing crisis, particularly on children,” says Twyford. 

The report assesses the entire housing continuum from homeownership and market renting, to state housing and homelessness, and the social cost of substandard housing.

“The stocktake highlights the increasing number of elderly facing housing-related poverty because fewer and fewer are mortgage free and able to survive on Superannuation alone.

“Most concerning is the hidden homeless – those who feel they can’t seek government housing support for their families – for which there are no official estimates. The stocktake suggests there could be significant numbers of ‘floating homeless’ which will lead to a growing homeless rate as more people seek help,” Twyford says.

The stock take report was commissioned in November and, at the time, Twyford said it would provide an up to date picture of the housing market.

He said it was time to open the books and give New Zealanders an accurate picture of the true state of housing in New Zealand.

Twyford was critical of how the previous government handled New Zealand’s housing issues and accused the National Party of keeping crucial housing data under wraps.

Three experts were appointed to carry out the housing market stocktake.

They are economist Shamubeel Eaqub, housing academic Philippa Howden-Chapman and long-time community housing advocate Alan Johnson.

Twyford says the stocktake warned New Zealand is “quickly becoming a society divided by the ownership of housing and its related wealth” and found “recent housing and tax policy settings appear to have exacerbated this division.”

“The Government is committed to addressing this inequality. Fixing the housing crisis will take bold action. The Government has a significant work programme to respond to these failures; implementing KiwiBuild, improving conditions for renters, increasing the supply of public housing, and rebalancing tax settings to discourage speculation.”

In addition to the report, Twyford released this stocktake by the numbers document, and this stocktake key findings and solutions document.

The charts below come from the report.

Five year changes in housing stock and population – 1997 to 2017

Homeownership rates for households - 1936 to 2017

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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128 Comments

Upcoming census will be very revealing, it's just a shame that it will take so long for it all to be revealed, I wish there was a quicker way to do it.

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Queue endless comments about how "improving conditions for renters" will decrease the number of rentals. I guess those other countries that have nice warm dry houses must have almost no rental properties, right?

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look at who was appointed to do the report, bit slanted to get the result you wanted.
in saying that we all know the cause, too many people for the amount of housing stock we have.
its not rocket science, you import 70k a year for 5 years and only build 10k a year guess what happens

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/100967443/little-hope-for-buil...

An interesting metric might be a trend of population/total housing square meterage. Which might also quantify the anecdot of overseas investors leaving houses empty as well as what the above article points to.

Not forgetting doubling tourist numbers and the consequent removal of housing from the rental pool into short-stay tourist accommodation.

yes airbnb is a lot more lucative for some that are not reliant on a weekly income, but can go though ups and downs

National party E Con omics
National members buy up houses
Open the gates to over 70K migrants per year
Allow offshore speculators to buy & sell NZ houses & allow them to repatriate their capital gains without taxation.
Keep the foreign funds flowing in & the gates open
Saving the govt short term borrowing but long term the pressures on infrastructure mean more govt borrowing to meet the needs of the new arrivals over the past several years.
The leader then sells his mansion to foreigners and gets himself a nice highly paid position out of politics
NZers left holding the baby with jammed roads full schools & hospitals & over priced cheaply constructed houses many of which are due for demolition but not in NZ !

Government housing report an ideological witch-hunt and a political window dressing. In fact, every sentence in the report would have been easily predicted and expected the day Winston went with Labour!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=1199...

The Economist has released its quarterly Global Housing Index.Perhaps someone can post the link.Stupidity and trough feeders revealed in a chart. New Zealand on the podium.

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https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2018/02/daily-chart-5

“house prices appear to be on an unsustainable path in Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Ten years ago they reached similarly dizzying heights against rents and incomes in Spain, Ireland and some American cities, only to endure a brutal collapse.”

We are top of the pile for overvaluation vs long term averages for relationship of price to income (61% overvalued vs average) and rents (112% overvalued vs average). The last figure must surely show that this bubble is not principally about housing as an accomodation asset, it’s about housing as an investment asset.

We have now got ourselves in a massive mess and I do not see how we will climb out of this hole without a major correction, sooner or later. We and our credit bubble will run out of luck at some point.

But this time it's different, New Zealand is a desirable bolt hole. The market is softening but showing resilience, there is nothing wrong with oscillations etc.

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Spain was a desirable bolt hole for many. Lots of English folk bought their retirement cottages there.

It's a problem when things get too unfavourable for young people, though. For recent years the remedy seems to have been to import different young people from places where life is worse, rather than actually measure and address underlying issues.

Exactly Rick
Hit the nail on the head
No thought given by National to the job situation for Kiwi kids like poor Zachs who couldn’t even get a part time job at McDonalds & will never be able to buy a house unless dad & mom finance it

And you forgot to add, it’s natural that price increases run well in excess of rental increases. Of course, skyrocketing demand for accomodation will cause house prices to double or triple but will have no corresponding effect on rents. That would be silly.

Fear not, the new government is building 100'000 affordale new houses

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Your point is that they won't be able to.

I agree.

But at least they are going to try rather than try and say the problem doesn't exist.

They learnt that trick off Sir John Key... pick the problem of the day... pick a number... slap some zeros on the end. Instant policy/headline. It will be nice when to see the day when our parties stop outright lying in public... got a while to go yet.

Think National isn't innocent here?

$11,000,000,000 financial hole?
100,000 kiwi kids will be out of poverty.

Maybe if the nats oust boring Bill for a progressive leader representing generational change we will see some realism in our politics.

Are you serious
Agreed National requires more generational change not merely young Nat clones of Bill John & Jenny etc
It’s a self interest party 1st

Shamubeel Equab says we are not 100 000 houses short in NZ ... we need 500 000 ... wow !

... our shortage of houses began in the 1980's , and has been getting steadily worse every year since ...

So , we can't blame that on foreign investors , can we ... nor on the flood of immigrants ... the blame rests squarely back with out dopey councils , the government , and Unnecessary Handbrakes Ltd ( AKA the RMA ) ..

That last graph shows a lot. All that hard work that generations and governments put into increasing access to home ownership...since abandoned, and no surprise at the results.

A quick look at the linked document didn't raise it so maybe it's specific to my environment, but in my 50s I'm seeing a run of women who have been 'Barnaby Joyce'd" i.e. as soon as the children have left the nest, the husband/father asks for a divorce. This often leaves the woman with half a house, possibly diminished by debt, but in some cases no house and no income to afford one. They will end up renting for life, probably subsidised by the tax payer while the husband uses remaining earning years to rebuild wealth.

I'm aware of a few reverse Barnaby's too - wife hanging out until kids leave before finding toyboy.

Media goes crazy when we see a Barnaby Joyce or a Len Brown. But then they say that women should be able to do the same without criticism.
Whhhhaaaa????

Run some names past us then.

Barnaby Joyce is a hypocrite for moralizing about other people ie same sex marriage and opposing Gardisil vaccinations against cervical cancer in case it promoted promiscuity. People such as Joyce, who do the whole "do as I say, not do as I do" in positions of power deserve every bit of derision they get once exposed.
Otherwise where they stick certain parts of their anatomy is of little concern.

It demonstrates character though - I'd have trouble voting for someone who's proved themselves to be a liar and a cheat.

Point

If they work hard and cut down on smashed avocado, flat whites, and Sky telly they'll be fine. It's always been hard.

But no, absurdities aside, this is a major effect of the housing crisis, no doubt.

They might be ripe for the picking in parties promoting a change of tax policy.

I understand that your better half was observed scurrying off to lawyer and locksmith this morning.

Given I earn over 80% of the household income I somehow doubt that. Maybe that was my mistress?

Previous governments have been strong believers of the meritocracy.
https://www.amazon.com/Meritocracy-Myth-Stephen-J-McNamee/dp/0742561682

Or is it that the Bureaucratic Class are true believers in Government? They believe they should be in charge because they are very intelligent. Very intelligent, but prone to the stupid errors that very intelligent people are subject to. One of these is the elevation of Theory and Strategy over experimentation, practicality and tactics. They worship the Great Theory and feel superior to those lower mortals who like to Get Things Done.

Some one is going to have to build new stock. Investor dont look like they are as the best capital gains have been on existing single dwelling houses. Why not focus tax offset on new housing to reduce speculation on existing stock?

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PT quote:

The Government is committed to addressing this inequality. Fixing the housing crisis will take bold action. The Government has a significant work programme to respond to these failures; implementing KiwiBuild, improving conditions for renters, increasing the supply of public housing, and rebalancing tax settings to discourage speculation.

But zip, zilch, nada about tackling the trifecta of more basic causes:

  1. Zoneration up the wazoo with dire effects on land prices
  2. NIMBY, incumbent and covenant-based resistance to sensible reactions such as smaller houses, prefab builds and tiny houses
  3. The usual Opolies: Monopoly-delivered standards, inspections and consents (TLA's and BRANZ), Duopoly-supplied Materials, oligopoly-supplied Elfin Safety. All bulking up costs as the layers interact, and often for zero discernible benefit to the customer.

This trifecta has two effects: high land prices, and a tendency to build for the upper quartile of the market, because that's where the demand still is. The former cuts out FHB's even without a house on the plot , the latter concentrates building resource where the munny is. Quelle surprise.....

Oh, and let's not forget the Gubmint-induced price-floor effect of Welcome Home Loans....

Classic Labour policy really. They have a wonderful ability to stuff things up right royally. Lots of fine words but a failure to find ways to engage the forces that can actually solve the problem. So, maybe, less regulation, more speculation, might help. You know, let the people solve the supply problem and get the Gubbmint out of the way. Of course all ploticians and Bureaucrats love, worship and adore The Government and see it as the Answer To All Things.

Classic Labour policy really. They have a wonderful ability to stuff things up right royally. Lots of fine words but a failure to find ways to engage the forces that can actually solve the problem.

So who are these "forces" that they can solve the problem? The private sector? The incumbent construction and building materials businesses?

I think Roger is expecting Fletchers and their "free market" friends to fix things.

Classic Labour policy really. They have a wonderful ability to stuff things up right royally. Lots of fine words but a failure to find ways to engage the forces that can actually solve the problem.

So who are these "forces" that they can solve the problem? The private sector? The incumbent construction and building materials businesses?

We have had the neo-liberal way for 30 years, and things have got worse its clearly failed IMHO.

eg look at house prices, massive speculation and hardly any more houses being built.

Less regulation? well people want a standard of services and quality in their purchase which they cannot determine for themselves as they are not experts. Maybe you have not learned from the leaky building fiasco? you know lets allow free market and "innovation" reuslt one huge expensive cockup.

There is no place for "might" its clearly failed now its time to do the hard yards, which clearly the free market has no stomach for.

Single biggest issue for affordable housing in the greater Auckland market is the availability of lower cost land that has been supply constrained by Auckland Labour Party mayoral plants - Len Brown for example and left wing councillors planning to make us all live in a sustainable city whatever that consists of.

This was not a National Party constraint - Caused by the Auckland Council and their left wing supporters.

Thankfully we now have a Unitary Plan and more importantly and end to urban boundaries coming up.

Let's assign fault where it lies rather than blaming Nation for a so called housing crisis which yes we do have but as always the causes are complex and inter-related - But land availability is the single biggest factor in low cost housing availability.

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Why didn't National spend nine years calling the council out and pressuring them to change this? We saw in Christchurch that they could grasp power in the name of getting things done if they wanted to.

I agree zoning needs freeing up.

I recall only the occasional comment as local and central govts sought to blame each other rather than taking action.

Yes, and National created the SuperCity, a massively stupid thing to do. Thus turning a lot of smaller dysfunctional entities into a monster. Sort of the opposite of separate and destroy.

There was interesting discussion in the comments on Greater Auckland recently regarding having smaller councils competing for customers: https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2018/01/16/zoning-politics-many-not/

The monopoly super city actually goes against this.

...councils can compete for property taxes by serving demand. If an existing council doesn’t, then a competing tax authority can, which is a useful disciplining device. The counties around Atlanta, Georgia, are property tax hungry, and all willing to serve unhappy customers of the muncipality. This makes the municipality competitive.

Funny, when the Unitary Plan was being pushed through and I sensed National were much too keen to run roughshod on local concerns and push intensification I sent a terse message to the local MP. Evidently they didn't run roughshod enough for some. In the end it was a non event as few seem to be subdividing in my area.

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To be fair there were also a number of right wing councillors opposed to intensification.
National could have done something in 9 years to fix it. They could have removed council powers. They campaigned on fixing the housing crisis in the first place then made it much worse.

They could have "simply" forced the removal of boundaries. It would have achieved little IMHO as the power would then have moved to the land bankers who wold have held prices up anyway, but at least there would be a new whipping boy.

Again this is as much a failure of successive governments as it is as that of the market. Blame is pointless. This is more a failure of what is rapidly becoming the pseudoscience of economics which most of us, unwittingly, have tacitly accepted since year dot. Whatever we do now is simply going to be an extension of welfare to successive already entrapped generations. It is now come to a point where tinkering, no matter how well intended, is exactly that. The political will to change this lies in the faceless mass the system purports to represent. Take up your pitchforks! The peasants are revolting!

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No one should be shocked that after a decade of importing low skill immigrants at highest rate in the world, under investing in infrastructure, denying a housing crisis even exists, let alone taking steps to address the problem, is going to result in this level of cluster f%$k.

And not to imply that Labour will necessarily even find and take the right steps to address the problem. The problem is so entrenched, so complex after the previous decades political ineptitude that solutions are hard to find and implement, regardless of who is in charge in the future to clear up the mess.

No one should be shocked that after a decade of importing low skill immigrants at highest rate in the world, under investing in infrastructure, denying a housing crisis even exists, let alone taking steps to address the problem, is going to result in this level of cluster f%$k

As some will say, it's a "nice problem to have": the wealth effect takes care of the consumer economy; a large segment of the sheeple feel good; and you have a cheap workforce to choose from.

If you do say, we are too inept to put it right, it might be a good thing that we have an economic crisis of epic proportions and let the floods clean it up.

Gingerninja: I was feeling quite happy until I read your comment and now I'm depressed. It doesn't matter how I read it. Could be 'cluster folk' or 'cluster fork' or something impolite and still it's depressing.

Its spot on though, 20 years of do nothing because its either "too hard" (ie its going to cost too much) or "too profitable" (ie lets not cause a recession so as to keep the Govn coffers filling from boom times).

It isnt just a National ineptitude thing, HC was just as bad.

However this is a boon time for the social engineers, from both sides of the spectrum. Looking forward to some really solid work here to once again save ourselves from ourselves. There will be no shortage of opportunities here to enlist the very brightest and prescient of our generation.

Ok, here goes the solution:

• build a fastish (say 120kmh - 150kmh) between Hamilton and Auckland via pukekohe with limited stops.

• buy developable land at potential stops on the line.

• build new greenfield towns and make money by selling some of the land to commercial and residential developments.

• contract government funded house building on large lots - thousands of houses - with preference given to suppliers who use innovative construction methods and offer additional volume to the private market at discounted terms.

• repeat between Tauranga and Hamilton.

It’s that or we immediately informe a population limit. I like us to build/innovate our way out of this problem but to do that we need to pull finger.

First dot point was supposed to be train.

I wouldn't like to be on a narrow gauge train doing that speed.

120kmh doesnt sound that bad for our gauge, 120MPH on the other hand........

I am not opposed to the idea, however, we have to be aware that our current narrow gauge lines are unsuited to fast rail and every single road crossing would have to under or over bridges, you could not have any crossings, controlled or otherwise.
I'd rather we settled on a lower population though, to be frank, as this is what the rest of the world has to get its head around as well, before we eat and poison ourselves out of house and home.

Someone should go back and assissinate the person who made that gauge decision as a baby - joking.

Yeah there a costs but we have to bite the bullet. The cost is unfortunately irrelevant because the cost of inaction is unbearable.

It would have been a lot easier if we started addressing the problem 5-6 years ago when the severity was obvious.

The narrow gauge was a sensible solution to the difficult terrian at the time, not unique to New Zealand.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narrow-gauge_railways_in_Oceania

The distance in question isnt that great and our gauge was chosen for good engineering and financial reasons.

you can go 200Km/h on Narrow gauge, they do that daily in Queensland.

120-150 kmh would be fine. Get you from Hamilton to Auckland in an hour, from Pukekohe to Auckland in 40 mins.

Build new green fields towns? Have a rail service from Huntly and help that town get out of its mess! Oh and what about that nice new car commuter suburb Pokeno where's the station?

Worked in Hunly for 8 years.It was great before the mines and railway laid people off.
Now very happy to drive thru it and can't wait until the new road is completed so i can avoid it altogether.

Here is an alternative solution: get rid of the population. Firstly make living in NZ almost unbearable - things like congestion and schools without qualified teachers and big waits at hospitals. Then lets get rid of the expensive people first: cut benefits and beneficiaries will chose to go to Australia despite its failings. Oh that's a bummer I'm on super and daughter on job-seekers....

That will happen with time as those who are increasingly marginalized will probably not live to ripe old ages. In another comment I asked what these people are to do for pensions in a future without a universal one. I suppose this could be it, don't live long enough to rue not having one.

The more time I spend in NZ the more I realize how NZ is screwed by the neo-classical economic theories entrenched, believed, and worshiped through out.

Two fatal assumptions:
1. Govt should not be a part of market unless a market failure
2. Financial institution's only function is to facilitate investment

correct

This shameful government will wipe out the school zones next including the ever popular DGZ!

That would be hilarious but I don’t support that change in policy.

That would be funny. With all the appartments under way in zone somethings gotta change as the DGZ school are over full now.

I think it was David Goodman who said once a school is over 50% immigrant then even the most left-wing families move house to a new school zone. Result sudden unofficial segregation. (ref schools in Northern Ireland Catholic/Protestant and northern UK towns with Kasmiri and non-Muslim.) He also said it is quite hard to resolve once it happens.
In Auckland PI / Maori / Pakeha are not immediately visible ethnicities but my son has Maori mates whose families made a deliberate move from South Auckland because of schooling. But what about some of our most deservedly highly regarded schools in expensive suburbs that are becoming ever more visibly Asian - will they be bussing in pupils with blue eyes some time in the future?

Sad but true as evidenced by the two primary school teacher families in my street one who sends kids out of zone and other who moved a km to higher decile zone. Not to mention my own adult children both teachers plus one son in law teacher and as pc as you can get until it comes to schools for their own kids.

Too true, if funny how people say decile grading don't matter as teacher's quality is roughly the same everywhere, but when you ask where do your kids go to school? Then is a deafening long pause......

Who is David Goodman?

The Labour government created the enforceable 'DGZ' around 2000 with the intention of reining-in the elitist public schools.

You should be more concerned about the future use of the Epsom campus.

There is nothing wrong with the market failure bit.

It’s the definition of market failure, or lack of understanding of what it is, which is the issue. Obvious areas of market failure:

• Banking
• Housing
• Telecommunications
• Energy
• Petrol
• Supermarkets
• Insurance

What am I missing?

• Building supplies
• Dairy

• Rail

Well you have to have one model or the other. Housing is by no means a free market due to all of the controls on land, building materials, builders, etc.
I personally prefer the free market model, but for it to work the government and council would have to remove almost all regulation which is stopping development. Safety regulation is probably necessary, the rest isn't.
And then if the free market doesn't work, I would have no problem with the government competing in the free market as they did with Kiwibank.

Could have asked me instead... Here's our story:

came here with girlfriend in 2009 with a backpack and 1000Euro. Visited the country, got minimum wage jobs, progressed the career until a very high level. Had a child, kept progressing career. Still after 9 years of hard high skilled work it was either buy a house or start a business. We decided to go the business way as houses kept going out of touch with reality. Business is good and my partner has a high level job in a multinational.

We are leaving the country next month. Became too silly and I don't see it getting any better. I have eyed this property in Bordeaux http://www.seloger.com/annonces/achat/maison/bordeaux-33/124957413.htm?c... 240000 euro with 20 YEARS FIXED interest 1.8% mortgage. Couldn't even buy a freehold shack in Ranui for that.

Very similar Ian, we're looking around Languedoc-Roussillon, Midi-Pyrenees, Gironde, money goes a hell of a lot further there, with an eye to move in a 3-4 years time. Any views on how Brexit will potentially affect prices?

Major issues for me are the crazy house prices, the houses simply aren't worth it, saving our deposit and lump summing a house back in Europe is the go.

Brexit might be incresing prices now as British ppl get a bit scared they might not be able to buy later. If it's an Hard Brexit then prices might go down later but honestly there is a lot of available housing there and the govt and council actually keep building them so not such an issue.

Talked to a British lady on the Cook Strait ferry a while ago. She regrets moving to France due to the tension in her neighborhood with the immigrants.

Ironic when it comes out of an immigrant's mouth isn't it?

I understand it is possible to have conversations with tourists

And the employment opportunities in Bordeaux for you and your children are ....

One of the multiple reasons for our housing crisis is actually the fact that due to previous governments - yes both Labour and National about equally with a huge negative for Muldoon winding up the first Kirk Kiwisaver - we have a goldilocks economy from a world perspective and are seen as a highly desirable place to live.

Not perfect - everywhere has problems - ours are just seen as way less than all the others and we are very strong on the things that really matter. Rule of law, weather, eduction, ACC, free hospital care, National Super for all, opportunities for our children, very high levels of tolerance for all members of society.

It's very easy to forget the wonderful attributes of our economy that others would die for. Look at the fast deteriorating debt / deficit mess in the US. Let alone the fact that more than 20 million have zero health care.

Thus we are going to face continued pressures on housing and an intelligent response(s) will require multiple approaches on numerous fronts. We are so small on a world scale that we are always at the margin so very susceptible to these macro economic drivers.

Just as jobs in Bordeaux are an issue - we have what is being termed the Bermuda Triangle - Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga is where it's happening and in my view going to continue to be the focus of growth opportunities so that's where the houses have to be built.

As John Clark sang " We just don't know how lucky we are " .. he was so right.

LOL we already have jobs there thanks for worrying dude. Do you think there are jobs only in NZ?

But to answer your post:

- rule of law (if you are rich and white I agree - see name suppression cases, companies going on liquidation not to pay for employee's death) etc

- weather - HAVE YOU LOOKED OUT OF THE WINDOW???

- Education - Nah nothing special at all.

-France health system is free and the best of the world i'll take that thanks

- Nat super will be abolished by the time I'm 65

Depends on what you do, my wife and I can merrily contract/consult for 6 months of the year, provided there's an airport/TGV station in the vicinity then Paris, the UK, Spain, Holland, Italy, Germany, Scandinavia are an hour or so away.

Fair enough and good luck. But I suggest you look damned hard at economic, demographic and political projections for France before you decide to build a long term life there. Euro will fail given debt build up, EU may or may not survive. French economy is a basket case (nearing 100% debt/GDP), their labour market is appalling, and they have rapidly escalating religious/cultural tensions that demography will only worsen.

You’re missing the point that I have no choice. NZ doesn’t want hard working people. NZ wants people with money (clean or dirty doesn’t matter).

Actually I could stay and keep paying 30k in rent per year to my landlord with no prospect of ever buying a house...

Been looking at places in France as well, its a sad day when we lose people like yourselves, and gain fruit pickers. We only have the greedy and incompetent National to blame.

ian64. Your story actually makes me sad. Similar to mine in many respects and time will tell if I stay but you have genuinely cut me up. Wish you the very best in your future endeavours and hopefully you and yours will continue to prosper no matter where you take up root.

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Thanks mate, the only sad thing for me is that my son won't be able to grow up in his own country that he loves so much. He might come back one day.
For me I'm just pissed off, not sad. For all the talk of high taxes in France, this is true only for rich people. We will pay half the tax in France than we do here (top tax rate here). In France the top tax rate is much higher but you have to be seriously rich to pay it. Also, wealth is taxed. Here you are punished for being an hard working person and a saver. That's how I was brought up: work hard, save and things will be right. In NZ that is bullshit. If I could do it again I would buy the cheapest shack I could find at interest only, cram a few Indian "students" inside and pay 0 taxes for ever. Then repeat.

How dare you come out here,work hard and expect to be able to buy a house.

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It should be specified when applying for Visa. "Hard workers need no apply, speculators only".

PocketAces - you are so living in the past. Why cant we all live in cyberspace where there is unlimited RE and the only constraints are those of our own imagination.

Sometimes you have to look back to see forward. Changes are necessary, that is the future. Not sure what comment you refer to though. If you click on reply when you are addressing a comment, it will make more sense

Well as you can see maybe some of us are constrained in cyberspace. I’m a fossil in my fourties. Not much chance for me then

All the working poor, and working professionals who're renting and cant afford to buy a house in Auckland have one thing in common. They can all at least rejoice in the knowledge that John Key made a 10 million dollar tax free capital gain by selling his house to some rich Chinese dude.

Praise the Lord. And the LandLord.

It was the brighter future he promised.

"Good problems to have", and "signs of our success".

I guess the success criteria was to enrich those already in the market, then, while leaving the problems for future generations to deal with?

I think this government is really, really going to shake things up on the housing landscape. Prices will take a hit. They'll see it through.

One thing is absolutely for certain, a massive effort must be made.

yeah nah. political suicide. they are already looking soft on just about everything they campaigned on.

the only thing that will eventuate TD is kiwis will start leaving the country again, and the property market will move sideways for the next 10 years.

Houses are going to HAVE to be affordable for people, however it happens.

Houses are going to HAVE to be affordable for people, however it happens.

If we want a consumer economy like we have now and for which we don't have any alternatives for the masses, you are correct.

The issue is that houses are very affordable for many offshore migrants who have virtually free access to - by their standards our tiny markets - and therein lies the problem !

agree. however may take 10-20 years. that's if you believe in free market economics...or you sit on the side of the fence that thinks the State can solve ALL problems then it will be resolved tomorrow PA.

All or nothing, eh, black or white? Of course the state cannot solve ALL problems, nor can the state solve many problems entirely, but there is plenty of room for the state to provide much of the solution, when it is needed to, and it is needed. The state will be needed to get the ship back on its keel, the free market has no interest in doing so, as the benefactors of that have a vested interest in seeing to it that it is never fixed.

Yes, people may start looking at overseas again.

But what's so wrong with tackling rampant house inflation? What does it say about our political culture that Governments fall on the absence of continuous inflation of house prices. Bizarre drugs.

Tim D..Total nonsense. You're Dreamin Mate. They dont want to stuff the housing market asd it will affect all the poor people that they are trying to help. They will be voted out if that happens.

Perhaps Labour could sell it as a stabilisation to house prices, after a post 2011 extraordinary inflation due to all the foreign money and low interest rates.

What I'm saying is that not all house classes go up and down together necessarily. That's what Labour is doing, bringing a new class of houses. St Stephens Ave doesn't have to take a big hit because South Auckland etc, get a chance at home ownership and adequate rentals.

Maybe what NZ needs to see the back of and shift away from is the mum and dad professional Landlord...? Home ownership needs to be 85%.

ian64. I have a brother in-law in France working as a professor.We go across every 2nd year to visit. The French are in straight jackets as to what they can do with their houses and the economy is full up on debt. It is an OK life but it cant go on there as it has in the past. Things will get worse there before it gets better.

at least they can have a house

One thing I worry about France is Islam. Sharia law in some small suburb will be inevitable, unless the french start getting all nationalist mindset again... but sjwism as well as 3rd wave feminism is quite strong there so I don't see how France can turn itself around without dealing with th first.

This stock take is more of the nature of a general warning to NZers. This is what Labour governments do when it gets bad enough. It's bad enough for them to massively intervene and change the fabric of the housing stock. Its a 20-30 year project. But it's starting now, bigger than most of us have experienced or expecting.

We're too used to lazy governments depreciating public assets to provide the rationale for privatisation.
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The only way to fix the shortage is to deregulate.

As a renter and a payer of a commercial lease, the last 15 years of housing price growth have been unproductive for me. All this (price growth) has been like watching a train wreck in slow motion.. all totally avoidable with proper governance, which was... to deal with demand first then sort out supply.

Interesting aside: comparing apples with oranges but lets see how our masters of business and politics dig us out of the these two holes -Fletchers vs Government. The ‘free market’ vs the ‘political economy’. I’m taking bets now.

To bail out or not to bail out.........Look Ralph I turned the election around in 6 weeks.........so how much do you need?.........A billion or two.......no problem......it's not much bigger than a scoop and I've got a big packet.........lets do this!!.........

Phil Twyford gives an honest outline of the meaning of John Key's consciously created social disaster.

Let us please not forget what John Key has done. May he solidify the reputation that he (and his merry men) deserve.

My piece on John Key:

https://youtu.be/ds4a3EmKsuw

From the summary report
Housing supply and the Auckland market
o Infrastructure development often creates a bottleneck, made more problematic by increasing debt faced by local councils. Auckland Council accounts for more than half local government debt at around $8.3 billion.

The Government’s solutions:
No mention of refocusing local government spending on the essentials (water, wastes, roads) and limiting political discretionary spending on nice to haves.

Good to see government trying to do something but the thinking of the average New Zealander needs to change to significantly change the landscape and achieve ‘affordable housing’. Sadly the old idea that ‘everyone should own their own home’ doesn’t work in the modern environment. Kiwis have become obsessed with home ownership and tweaks in tax legislation, a small increase in supply etc. won’t stop them finding a way to try and buy. Demand will continue to drive prices. We need a long term, attractive rental stock that people can make their ‘home’. Look to the German model for example.
The other thing that could significantly change prices is a sudden global shock or rapid inflation driving interest rates up but that’s another story that no one wants to entertain.....

We also need not to have a few "landed gentry" creaming it off people now forced to rent for the lives. We will need to look at other models for providing housing such as co-operatives and social housing, so that even though people might not own the house they live in, they do have a stake in it.
I still think home ownership is a cornerstone of a decent society, look what is happening with them getting broken down.