Associate Finance Minister David Parker says the price of New Zealand homes should be set by buyers in this country, not those from overseas

Associate Finance Minister David Parker has confirmed the Government is proceeding with its plans to restrict the sale of residential property to overseas buyers.

Parker said figures released by Statistics NZ showing a high level of house purchases by overseas buyers in New Zealand's least affordable areas, vindicated the Government's move to ban foreign buyers of existing homes.

The figures showed that 7.3% of homes sold in the Auckland region in the first quarter of this year were sold to overseas buyers, and in some central suburbs overseas buyers accounted for almost 19% of purchases.

In Queenstown-Lakes, overseas buyers accounted for almost 10% of purchases.

"That shows the concentration of buying is in the areas of worst affordability and where price rises have been the highest," Parker said.

"Kiwis were right to be concerned and that is why we are passing the foreign buyers law."

Parker also said that the proportion of homes owned by foreigners was increasing, because there were more foreign buyers than foreign vendors selling New Zealand homes.

"We want the prices of New Zealand homes, whether it be a lakeside station, the best houses in the Bay of Islands or the modest homes in our towns and cities, to be set by local buyers, not on the international market," he said.

"It's also a matter of values. We believe New Zealand homes should not be traded on an international market and New Zealanders should not be outbid by wealthier foreign buyers."

Parker said the Overseas Investment Amendment Bill was on track to become law next month.

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205 Comments

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Fantastic!

Legislation change noted "In section 7(1), replace “resident” with “ordinarily resident in New Zealand”.

Cant wait.

Hmmm. Does that include or exclude foreign domiciled nz citizens?

It is rather loose... it goes on to state:

"for example, not a New Zealand citizen or resident or, for companies, incorporated overseas"

No New Zealand this is not good enough.... how does factory owner from China buys a house in Auckland.... gets cash out of the country (or Chinese bank debt which is huge).. 12 months later sells NZ house to mate who owns Chinese factory next door (to get money out of China, or bank debt)... 12 months later, sells to factory owner next door - good friend, (gets money out of China, or bank debt) - sells to .... This is starting to sound repetitive and I'm sure hasn't happened during the unregulated tenure of the Key/English Administration.... or Factory owner (gets money out of China, bank debt... buys John Key's house) John swans off......Chinese debt bubble?/ NZ debt bubble trying to compete.. One way game..... Now in reverse... Chinese Revolution?? Lets hope not...Kiwi revolution? it should have happened ages ago but there were too many specu-debtors controlling the media and they still do ...

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There shall be lashings of humble pie served cold to a few punters on here, who stated that this would not come in. Now who gets the first serve?

I nominate Zack Brando. https://www.interest.co.nz/property/94168/overseas-house-buyer-activity-...

by Zack Brando | Thu, 07/06/2018 - 12:08
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Yeah National suck, but I don't see Labour banning overseas/none resident buyers. Infact I don't even see Labour banning letting fees for renters ..

I don't see Labour dealing to the land bankers or building material monopolies. All talk from Labour - no action. At least with National their supporters could believe the lies.

Labour are just leading their supporters down the garden path of inactivity and watered down policies. National were very clear, "there is no housing crisis". At least you knew who National stood for - property speculators. As for Labour, nobody knows.

Thank you for the nomination, I'm just happy to be included. =)

by delboy | Thu, 07/06/2018 - 12:24
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The COLs foreign buyer ban was supposed to stop this. Oh wait that's right there's still no foreign buyer ban. The can is being kicked down the road.

Well COL Bill English got rinsed for ignoring public sentiment and if you don't implement this ban you will also get rinsed.at the next election.

Boatman:

This was always going to stir emotions and lead to someone saying something silly or racist BUT did the new Government not campaign on a ban on foreign buyers?

I mean , they banned all new oil and gas exploration in a flash when they took office ...............

At least his kids will require less handouts.

At least his kids don’t have to feel so bad about being so wreckless with their finances. There’s still hope for those little avocado munchers!

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15

Non, Nah, Nein, O'hi, lo, Nei, Tidak, lie, Nedda, Nee, Jo, Aye, Iaa, Votch, Ez, Na, Ne, Nann, m hai, bu shi,.........

but on behalf of my children, thank you Jacinda and team for having the courage that weak men have failed to display..

Bravo

I second that Fantastic! Way to go David. :)

I wonder if National will overturn this if they get in?

Come back to Earth. .

"If" stands stiff in the corner

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29

It might be a long time before they get that chance. National lost a lot of credibility during their final term.

So far this government is fulfilling promises, and despite what the "business" community might be complaining about, they seem to be making the right moves.

This govt is only making good on a few promises. And a few completely stupid surprises. (Gas exploration/ meth tenants).
And National have yet to say that their immigration policies caused so many problems its not funny.
And so far Winston and his sensible policies have evaporated into thin air.
So I would say that at the moment it is a choice between two (three) really bad options.

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As a sitting-and-waiting FHB, this is brilliant news. Patience is a virtue.

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I'm in the same boat mate! Be patient. If prices fall $100k, roughly 10-15%, that means you not only saved that, but also the compounded interest for 30 years! That makes the current rent we pay more than worth it.

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I am sitting on the fence FHB too, if the ban is in place by next month, you reckon the prices will come down ? by what %

This market is like a jet that had its last decent fuel fill-up end 2016, since then fuel has been trickling into the tank, but it was burning through it a lot faster. At the moment, I think the tank is quarter, that's way the market is flat, as it's trying to conserve fuel. If the trickle is turned off completely with this ban, I reckon a quarter tank will get you through another 3-6 months, before you seriously start losing altitude.

The thing to watch is home builders getting desperate. As an example, scroll through this search. The 1st half is builders trying to off-load already built spec houses, and the 2nd half is builders trying to sell land and home packages on land they are about to settle on. Cash flow is really drying up for them:
https://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/CategoryAttributeSearchResults.aspx?sea...

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Yep, it hit me while back on my drive into work.. if there is such a housing shortage, why is Mike Greer homes paying for radio advertising to sell already completed houses at hobsonville? Oh, the shortage is of willing and able buyers (at the current prices).

No need to rush Hari.... There will be a lot of seller denial first I'm afraid... Lots and lots of people had a misconception that they were a lot wealthier than they really were - when all they really did is buy a house with lots of bank debt and stop a first home buyer getting a start in life. many retirement plans will change and people will realise that equity disappears quickly in a debt crisis (interesting that Westpac raised their term deposit rate today to 3.85% so they are expecting property loses and want to attract funds to maintain ratios) The collapse may take several years to unwind but the initial fall will be steep. I'd guess 20-25% over 18 months having seen this before in far bigger property markets than NZ. The bottom however will be years away.. If you make an offer that you're happy with and the real estate agent says 'I have another buyer who is also offering so you'll have to go up' - Just say 'That's fine, I'll wait for the next one then!' Then you'll see how real the real alternative is... Enjoy the hunt but take your time and keep sensible to the fact that any price today could be half that before we reach the bottom..

I wish you a good start in life Hari..

best wishes

Nic Johnson

Its an interesting scenario. It this was to happen, you should then reduce your offer!!!!!! Because effectively they have declined your offer so it no longer stands.(Offer, no acceptance). Therefore you are free to reduce the offer!!! Magic.

If prices start to drop, won't you then say you don't want to catch a falling knife?

I really do prefer "trend is your friend". Look at the 80 year trend.

Just trying to give honest input here. Every first home buyer thinks prices are too high when they enter the market, but those who take the leap tend not to regret it. Do you know anyone who has purchased a house in NZ and then regretted it? I know plenty who regret waiting.

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I can guarantee you a lot of people who bought houses in Dublin in 2006 & 2007 regret their purchases. 10+ years later and they are still worth a fraction of what they paid for it. I understand the long term trend argument but there are definitely bad times to purchase houses.

Don't buy now because Dublin. Don't buy later because falling knife.

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Another property spruiker/

Another insightful comment

Your level of maturity is degrading by the day. I did have some regard for you, but you prove me unwise

The 80 year trend, excluding the last 30 years, shows growth in line with inflation. House price doubling every ten years is an entirely modern phenomenon, (those 30 years aforementioned) and bears absolutely no relation to 'normal' trends," just trying to give honest input here"

The 80 year trend looks great to me. And why exactly would we exclude the last 30 years? Talk about blinkers on. “Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored”

Nevertheless, prices keeping up with inflation is just fine and would still warrant getting into the market (noting of course that the reality is house price gains have exceeded inflation). Your mortgage repayments don't go up with inflation, but rents do. In the long-run, you can expect an average interest rate of something like 6% over the life of the loan, with payments reducing over time as the loan reduces. Compare this to rents, which increase on a compound basis every year with inflation. Same principal applies to an investment property.

Your "honest input" leaves much to be desired.

It's a sin to dream

Yeah this foreign buyer ban is all well and good, but what I want to know is when the foreign buyer ban is coming in, CoL, taxinda, broken promises etc etc....

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The article states next month.

Sorry, should have put a facetious/sarcastic parenthesis around that comment, apologies, I was trying to be amusing and have clearly failed in my pastiche of Labour policy knockers.

Good news, great to see the follow through. Should silence some of the critics that have piled on the rhetoric of "nothing but false promises" (I doubt it though).

Wonder how they got around the issue of listed companies getting caught up in this. Lots of listed NZ companies need to buy residential property as part of their normal business. They would presumably need to either obtain Overseas Investment Office consent every time or get some sort of blanket exemption.

So its getting royal assent next month or what? Finance and Expenditure Committee will be late this month, but looks to still need two readings and Committee of Whole House after that.

The likes of Seymour and Adams will raise thorny issues at Committee. David Parker is known to be gung-ho (my view is the guy is a liability), so they will be scrutinising the detail.

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Sorry.. Why do companies need to buy residential properties? As I think companies and trusts should also be banned from purchasing residential properties..

There are many examples, but to name one - Spark needs to buy residential property on a regular basis to install cell boxes. It is a listed company, so would be substantially foreign owned.

Right thanks.. I suppose OIO could do it on a case by case basis?

That example ought to be resolved easily from a regulatory perspective, as under the RMA these entities are classified as 'network utility operator' and 'requiring authority'

http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1991/0069/latest/whole.html#DL...

So, any entity classified as such under the RMA could be exempted under this law from requiring OIO approval for the purchase of such assets and/or land for these purposes.

The Bill contains no provisions along those lines. There are multiple ways that this could be addressed, but the devil is in the detail and technicalities like this can hold things up.

The number of listed or foreign-owned requiring authorities or network utility operators that need to buy residential land in NZ is quite low.

Retirement home providers like Ryman have been complaining too as it could impact on them buying land to develop. I expect the government will find a way to deal with these kinds of cases.

Yes. I just wonder why, as far as I can tell, this hasn't been addressed in the Bill.

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Oh a retirement home crisis for the boomers would be poetic justice.

Brock - I always enjoy your posts but today you seem to have elevated your commentary to a different level...

It's brilliant, I humbly walk in your shadow..

Well done
Nic

Were both of you orphans? Many elderly people have to be almost forced to go to villages. When they do go, the average ‘stay’ is 18 months. If they don’t go then they won’t be selling their homes, their estates will, delayed by that length of time. Less supply equals higher prices. In any case, boomers won’t be going to home age for years yet. Book your finance for circa 2028. Hahaha

If you were Retired Poppy, I'd say you don't need to worry about a thing my friend, come and live with me and my family... You're incredibly smart and even if you only have an hour a day to share you brain with my kids, any financial cost to me would be well worth my investment in my kids future... You'd need to prove yourself Rex Pat to get a similar invite..... There will be a glut of boomers selling soon not for the retirement home but higher interest servicing costs (not Poppy though) but too many refuelled the debt tank for buy to debt... which is a train wreck....

What about companies set up to invest in property in NZ, by foreign interests? a part of the many discussion here has been that no one really knew the extent of foreign ownership of residential properties. So if foreign interests set up a company to then purchase property for an investment, how would the law change capture them?

I don't think it will.., if they don't stop companies and trust like vehicles from purchasing residential properties, they will do exactly that.

Clear rules around what is foreign. Tough penalties if detected. So sure, some will flout it, but when a few properties start getting grabbed.....IRD has long arms and big databases.

IRDs slogan,"We've got what it takes to take what you've got". In this case, thats a good thing!

I think the legislation only specifies a penalty of not more than $20k though. It's a wet lettuce leaf.

I suggest you look at the ruling regarding HNA's purchase of UDC. OIO could not clearly establish the ownership of the company so it was declined.

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Is that hissing sound coming from Double Grammar Zone? Will this spell the end of DGZ's reporting of one hit wonders?

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Deflation indeed. I think you will also hear the specuvestors splattering their undies while speed dialing the pharmacy for a bucket of Pepto Bismol. Suspecting there could be some deposits abandoned just like Melbourne. Who will settle on all the multi million doller apartments in DGZ now...?

Could become very interesting changes for overseas absentee owners in the likes of Queenstown as well. Stuff about "commitment to NZ". Buying up housing and occupying it for only 1-2 weeks then leaving it vacant the rest of the year will no longer be a goer. Will be interesting to see how much of Arrowtown and Queenstown will will fail this new test.

Where is the dgz echo chamber? Not one has appeared yet.

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I recently heard that Auckland Grammar didn't fill its quota for year nine (formerly third form) students this year. Anyone else heard anything about this? And what does it say about the housing market?

Not sure. As a parent I have never rated Grammar for my boys. It's too big for a start (2,500 pupils), seems to be a victim of past success and I have no desire to live in-zone or play the out of zone game. Selwyn doesn't appear to have issues filling year-nine quota and it's in heavens holding pen zoning. Maybe other parents have twigged that Grammar wasn't all it was supposed to be?

My son went to AGS for couple of years, now in a selective school in Queensland. When he compare notes with his old school mates, the level they are teaching here is well ahead of AGS

Either the locals can't afford the "donation" due to those large mortgage repayments, or vacant classrooms equals vacant houses..

And now for that long overdue CGT.

Some basic questions still haven't been answered.

Will the government pay for the costs of this program in respect to any fallout? Has it considered the implications of doing this?

Let's keep in mind that a 10% drop in property prices, is worth more to current households in equity, than twice the current government debt outstanding. A 20% drop, and the bulk majority of mortgages at banks have no free equity attached to them..?

Any falls larger than that, and the banks are holding the bag, i.e, all deposits in banks are at risk of total losses..?

By banning foreign buyers, and allowing Kiwi's to set the price of property, given the narrative, I'm assuming that's going to be a lower price than today? Does the government have any internal estimates as to the effects that these policies will have on house prices and credit activity?

I do get the feeling that people (the government mainly) think that by bringing house prices down, everyone can now afford to buy property, and its all happy days? The reality of house prices falling in NZ, or globally actually has a narrative like this, you now can't buy the home you want because
A) the current owner is hanging on desperately, as to not have his life savings wiped out by selling for a loss
B) the deposit you were going to use to obtain a loan has been wiped out with the OBR being triggered for bank balance sheets becoming pressured as free equity is eroded
C) the banks are very very nervous and thinking about their own survival, so won't give you a loan anyway.

And finally D) you can't afford the house anymore, because unemployment is moving up as consumption has dropped significantly, the economy is in recession, and you've unfortunately lost your job or had your hours cut down heavily.

Its a sad day when these things happen, now I might be deemed an alarmist, or a bit of a nut for saying all of this, but I'm truly shocked that the potential consequences of policies have been overlooked entirely by the government. I'd really love it if they have looked into it, as I have genuine concerns about all of this, if someone knows that they have, could they link me something?

These numbers have to come out, there has to be open discussion, I'm not saying I'm right on any of this, I'm saying there needs to be dialogue, as the fallout can be absolutely enormous for the country.

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National already did all the required analysis. Apparently banning foreign buyers will have little to no affect on house prices so you should be able to sleep easy tonight

Brilliant. You're right the BLP said there was no effect.

comment of the day ...

Sounds like lalaland struggling to sell his over-leveraged properties at Auction.

For the record, I am short the property market. Which really makes me wonder why I am even trying to raise awareness of these problems, it's better for me financially to have a train wreck end to this. I've done my homework on all of this extensively, I know what the implications are, and how things end. Once I came to the realization of the scale of the problem, and how it ends for the average Kiwi, it actually concerned me deeply as I personally don't want to see the country go down the toilet.

I'm trying to warn people.

I've done my homework on all of this extensively, I know what the implications are

So do we thanks to the fine research National did. I'll repeat it again, banning foreigners will have little to no effect on house prices - Bill English. So relax.

Why are you so concerned about something that isn't actually a problem?

Because when housing volumes move two standard deviations below the historical mean average, the economy moves into recession immediately. Banning foreign buyers encourages that. And guess what, since labour began talking about this policy, housing volumes since then have moved past historical recession thresholds, two standard deviation moves have just occurred.

And because housing markets when they see larger falls in real estate volumes, reset to 100% of GDP, which is the general global average. Ireland was 350%, they fell back to 100% for example.

We are 450% of gdp, house values may reset to 100% of gdp, which is a 70% fall nationwide in house prices. Banks can't even sustain a fall of more than 30% from current prices. 40% of the average Kiwisaver fund is funneled into bank term deposits. Think about that for a second.

Why do you think the reserve bank is pondering quantitative easing?

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If what you say is true, then the fate was sealed when prices were allowed to get so high.

Gravity always wins in the end.

Yeah, I think you are right.

Good luck.

Banning foreign buyers encourages that

Why? Foreign buyers purchase so few properties that their effect is negligible (hat-tip Bill English for determining this). This legislation will therefore not affect house prices so just relax and enjoy life. Don't you know that property prices only ever go up here, we're different.

Ok cowboy, it wasn't me who said that. It will effect house prices, as it will structurally lower residential volumes (which over the last 30 years are 1:1 correlated with capital gains each year)

If you told me the number of properties sold next month was, I can tell you what the capital gain will be on last year for that month, within a very small margin of error.

My guess is we have a short and nasty recession at some point in the not too distant future, and the deadwood from the last, pre 2008, boom gets finally cleared away. As you say, houses are central to our system of money creation and destruction. When they are cheap you either don't have a job, or are worried you might not have a job, or the banks aren't lending to new customers. Construction, car buying and real estate selling pretty much stops for a year or two, so lots of people out of work. It only takes unemployment of 8.5% and house prices start spiralling down. Hopefully that won't happen, as there is a lot of misery when it does.

lalaland. I'm really keen to hear how you can short a house. I've shorted bank shares before (and may do that again) but never been able to get anyone to lend me a house to sell that I could buy it back later after a 50% price fall. How do you short property? other than REIT's?
The country will be fine, there will just be a re-distribution of property and wealth and a few people who got a bit greedy will lose a lot of money.. But that's the way financial markets work. It'll be okay.

Answer me this, why does property "only go down" in Japan, but "only go up in NZ" ?

In your dreams

You should actually see my dreams. They literally are about different asset price movements. It’s quite odd.

I don't ever want to go to lalaland....... sounds scary... have you captured TTP, Ecobird, Zachary Smith, Double- GZ.. THE MAN 1 - 100? all of them..

Is this a subliminal warning from the Peoples Republic??? of lets get some cash out before it all turns to revolutionary shit????

You should actually see my dreams. They literally are about different asset price movements. It’s quite odd.

If you're Japanese, you may want to read the article before the comments... Jacinda is going to implement a foreign buyer ban...... I know Japanese interest rates and housing has been rubbish for years... but you may need to find a new game too. And don't worry NZ property will no be rubbish for years too because of all the over-speculation by foreign entities..... Get out of it early and you'll spare yourself a bit of a haircut. \also Japan has had a recovery recently (sure the top in 1990 is a long time ago but they're getting better with 50 year mortgage offerings)

Nic, here is an example.

Take this

https://tradingeconomics.com/iceland/housing-index

That is nominal prices. Look at what happened from 2006-2015, not much.

Now go and bring up a chart of their exchange rate during that time

Now adjust that property price index from nominal to inflation adjusted prices

Now you see why property only goes up in Iceland

Hi lalaland..... You fill your boots on Iceland..... are you analysing markets from the 102nd floor of a bad housing development in Zhangzhou???? For reference Iceland was a previous train wreck (many bankers went to prison afterwards).... China sounds like being the next one, unless Deutsche Bank, Italy and Australia and Auckland housing markets don't beat them to it...China has had an influence in all those too....

Are there many of you gambling on property online???? to get away from the humdrum life of the apple factory??? Is it all leveraged gambling???

Should we be scared of the crash?

What?

You asked me how to short, I’m answering. To short NZ property, you have to understand how fiat & global capital flows interact with land prices, on a global stage. There are very big differences in real, nominal, and relative prices.

It’s a monetary policy / fiscal policy phenomenon. Same in Iceland. Australia too. Those are textbook examples. Honestly I could go on and on and on, I’ve got a hundred page document I produced on it to protect the people closest to me from any real financial harm. It’s really so simple how it goes down, ever since the 1960s, it’s always the same, and nobody notices.

I was going to just show you the actual correlations and instruments you can use to short, as you appeared keenly interested, but now I’m really not, as I understand you’re not actually interested in learning why it’s the case, and it would be a waste.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, and I’ll probably never post a single thing here after this. People don’t understand New Zealand property markets, the bulls think it’s all about leverage and it only goes up, the bears think it’s a bubble and that the bulls are delusional. Truth is, they’re both so wrong it’s not funny. I can count on less than one hand the number of people I’ve met or spoken with in depth, that actually understand the property markets at a deep level. There is a lot to them, and it’s honestly nothing short of absolutely fascinating to study them full time.

Best of luck

So should I interpret that as your short position is actually in the forex area rather than directly shorting some form of house price index?

I'm not short a housing price index, it doesn't exist. FX is one play, but I haven't done that.

Its about separating nominal from real yields / interest rates, and looking at those, looking for actual real yield. The property market has an enormous influence on these things, FX does represent that in a very accurate sense, but its not the only instrument

lalaland.. You have wisdom that I will probably never fully comprehend. But thank you for taking the time to respond. Between us and on a deep level, stick to 8's on the table and most importantly above the doors of the houses you buy and I am certain that your wisdom will remain profitable...But if you choose never to post again..... I probably won't have missed out on much nor my fellow readers.. So don't worry about us, we'll all be okay.

Lalaland, I have found your comments insightful. As a FHB I would love to see prices plummet. However I am aware for that to happen, the repercussions for NZ will be massive. We can look back and blame National for this, or Labour, if one looks back far enough. But I don’t like playing the blame game, I want to create a win win.... how can we do that?

Yeah, and historically they don't plummet in (keyword) nominal terms. There have been plenty of inflation adjusted falls, and another measure, relative price falls are actually very common, and on average occur every 4-5 years). There are property cycles that aren't seen in the nominal price index that go on all the time.

I'd say create an incentive approach, if the govt wants to discourage speculative or over concentrated investment, you have to provide a harbor for it move to. Why not make it difficult, but not impossible, to invest in property, but much easier to invest in say, infrastructure, or export business? Carrot and stick approach.

Lalaland

I replied to you below.

Dp

Out of interest.. how are you shorting the NZ property market? I wasn't aware of any instruments to do that.

Its easy, just sell your house and go renting. When the market crashes shortly then just buy it back at mortgagee auction , and now you have heaps of cash in your back pocket, easy.

That is probably the worst idea in the world.

Why?
Sure, you would need to time it perfectly so a huge amount of luck would be involved. But if you were able to pull it off, it would be brilliant.
However, OBR would probably have been initiated and covered bonds would accentuate the problem, so you would have had to have put your dosh in Kiwibonds or something similarly secure.

disagree lala.. Quicker you get out of this mess the better chance you have of preserving cash and then buying back in at 50% discount (saving yourself - 10-20 years mortgage hassle in the process)

But I want to short the market to make squillions when it crashes so I can skip the whole pay a deposit and get a mortgage stage. . Short the market and turn the deposit into a paid off house, or maybe a whole portfolio of investment properties.. i mean those things never go down right? :)

They do, a lot. Especially commercial, the losses in commercial can be enormous. Some commercial properties in the Auckland CBD, are only in the last few years returning to the levels (on a real basis), that they were at in 1986-1989. Incredible really

Didn't you hear Judith the scary eye monster already cry foul

Lol

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I've only read the first part of your post but you are asking if the losses of speculators will be compensated by the Government? Socialise the losses and privatise the profits. People buying houses are adults and they wear the risk of their poor decision making.

That is absolutely not what I'm saying, that is ridiculous to think that way.

What I'm saying is, is the government prepared to bear the costs of the economic fallout, associated with large losses from property price deflation effecting the solvency of the banking sector, something that this policy actually raises the probability of?

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I think they've been maneuvering carefully up until this point but it sounds like they're going to bite the bullet on the pain that will be caused. One part of being in Government is making hard decisions for the good of the country.

This is one time I'm not as worried about bank solvency. The worst of the foreign purchasing is in Auckland. Those in it for the long term will hold their property and keep making the same regular payments.

Even in the event of a bank being forced to sell off properties on behalf of speculators they should be able to get 80% of the purchase price to recover their money, leaving the banks with limited exposure to losses. The speculators wear almost all losses.

Outside of that we could have a consumer spending downturn as people won't be so comfortable borrowing to spend.

Of course there is still a risk that massive financial fraud is uncovered the same as during the GFC. That is something to be concerned about.

Govt has been getting ready for the inevitability of this for a while, as have I. Some sort of reset or massive catch up wage and price spiral (retired savings obliteration) has been fairly obvious for some time. Winston publicly referred to it during the election.

I think this will be the last step to force and housing asset reset in NZ, which is good as it only effect a small chunk of NZ, being speculators and banks. To boot once the reset has taken place surely that is the prudent time in introduce DTI's to prevent specuvestors and sloppy bank lending practices putting the economy at risk again?

Why worry.... I'm pretty sure that most of the losses will be off-shore losses anyway lalaland.

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JimboJones is 100% correct.

National's analysis determined that foreign buyers have little-to-no influence on NZ property prices, ergo your concerns are entirely unfounded. You can refer back to Bill English saying as much if it helps jog your memory. Hope this helps.

I'm asking for Labour's analysis, if they have done any at all, and what their estimates on property prices, sales volumes, credit activity, and economic activity that this policy will have.

What, are you saying that the BLP's analysis is suspect? Tell me it ain't so.

What you are looking for is called a regulatory impact statement;

https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/publications/impact-analysis-and-impact-statements

The full text of an impact statement must be published on the websites of the authoring agency and the Treasury (taking into account the provisions of the Official Information Act 1982). The Parliamentary Counsel Office provides guidance on the form and location of impact statements in bills and SOPs, and the requirement for departments to supply 40 printed copies of the impact statement to the Bills Office.

Kate, thank you for this.

I'd be disappointed if they wasted resources researching a topic that the National Party had already extensively studied. Revisiting this topic would be bureaucratic inefficiency. Why do you doubt National's claims?

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The government was elected on a clear platform of making housing more affordable, it's clear that in reality this means at least stabilising prices and most likely reducing them. Many voted for them because prices were too high and it'll be good for the country if they come down. Besides, losing 10-20% only takes away a little of the froth that appeared in the last few years, it shouldn't be devastating to anyone who has purchased conservatively and the LVR rules will protect the banks from that kind of fall.

In reality cheaper houses are good for everybody. I have some sympathy for those who think their savings are being wiped out, but that is an 'investment' mindset, while if all houses are cheaper it will actually cost them less to move up in quality of home.

I'd really love it if they have looked into it, as I have genuine concerns about all of this, if someone knows that they have, could they link me something?

The Reserve Bank does 'stress tests' on all bank lending;

Hope that helps.

lol

Laland, you have made some interesting points, but can we just unpick a few of them a moment? Because I think you have greatly exaggerated in several ways.

"A) the current owner is hanging on desperately, as to not have his life savings wiped out by selling for a loss"

Housing wealth is very concentrated in the hands of an increasingly small demographic. I would dispute that a housing crash would wipe out ALL of their wealth. I would suggest that most could still afford a perfectly lovely retirement, even if all of the houses in their portfolio lost capital value. Call me cynical, but if these alleged home owners are retiring with little to no mortgage on their family home, plus own additional rental properties, then I'm not going to lose sleep about their financial survival. They will be fine, gutted, but fine.

"B) the deposit you were going to use to obtain a loan has been wiped out with the OBR being triggered for bank balance sheets becoming pressured as free equity is eroded"

Since when did the OBR "haircut" wipe out the entirety of deposits? Assuming you have read the OBR policy? The policy is meant to prevent the bank from going under and taking customers money down with it (the very opposite of your suggestion). It's meant to prevent a run on a bank, so that there aren't customers losing their entire savings. I have close friends in Cyprus who went through something very similar to the proposed OBR policy. People lost some of their savings, a small percentage. Nothing got wiped out. NOTHING. No one had all their savings taken away. That is not what the OBR is designed to do and i'm sorry but this just seems like blatant scaremongering.

"C) the banks are very very nervous and thinking about their own survival, so won't give you a loan anyway."

To survive banks have to make money, banks make money by lending, so the opposite is true, banks have to lend to survive. If we look at the countries who were genuinely and seriously affected by the GFC, and we look at the credit crunch environments in those countries afterwards....at no point did banks stop lending!!!! They just tightened lending criteria.....and would only lend to attractive borrowers. I.E they needed to have a job and a decent deposit.

In the UK, during the credit crunch, banks were falling over themselves to lend to borrowers with above 25% deposit. If house prices come down, all those who have been diligently saving, might find that their deposit is suddenly making them much more desirable borrowers. For the average under 40, who has a job (not related to the RE industry), who has been saving, they might very well become a very desirable borrower.

I bought a house in the deep pit of the UK credit crunch. I was 33, with two kids and had over a 25% deposit and my mortgage was approved in a nanosecond. They were delighted to lend. There was a housing crash and guess what? People like me actually found it EASIER to buy a house.

"And finally D) you can't afford the house anymore, because unemployment is moving up as consumption has dropped significantly, the economy is in recession, and you've unfortunately lost your job or had your hours cut down heavily".

NZ has plenty of recession resistant industries. Why would exports be affected by a recession? Recession would likely lower NZD and this might actually increase exports in the short term. Why would tourism be affected by a recession? NZ will still be an attractive place to visit? When we look at bad unemployment rates... what are we usually talking about 8%-9%? Even if it went beyond 10% we are still talking about a huge majority of people still working and, should they have a deposit, still be eligible for a mortgage.

Necessity is also the mother of invention. Perhaps NZ productivity is appallingly lower because so much of our time and energy is invested in the swollen, bloated housing market? Perhaps a shock to the system will provide the impetus for innovative business to actually finally have a chance? This isn't a fairy tale, this is what generally happens after a recession, when they crappier industries who have been bobbing along and coasting on easy growth are culled, clearing the way for companies who actually have real growth potential. That's been a regular feature of every financial cycle worldwide.

Yes, real estate related jobs will suffer, but then they have to. Real Estate should never, ever have been allowed to become the economic juggernaut it has. At some point, for the long term betterment of New Zealanders, that has to change.

After the GFC my husband and I started our own business in the UK. And by golly are we glad we did. Our self made income has more than doubled since.

Wait, wut? i hear you cry...there has been negligible wage growth since then...not if you have a productive, innovative business it's not.

AND as if that wasn't enough... what happens every time NZ economy is in the doldrums? The government steps in to employ more people... which considering how low government debt is... is a very like outcome.

I don't disagree with you on your rationale for shorting the housing market, but on your prognostications? Wildly exaggerated.

My reasons to be so negative actually stem from specific demographic issues over a 50 year timeline, that is where the 'view' comes from. Its not that I'm negative on it for no reason, its that the usual cyclical moves appear to be dramatically amplified recently by demographic issues, which show me that its not a 6-7 year cycle that is possibly ending, but a 50-60 year one, because of post WW2 demography.

Its very reasonable to see these sorts of events if the demographic issues that happened offshore to other nations, repeat here, hence why I'm trying to waive a bit of a flag over it all, these issues can be largely dealt with before the become an issue, if they are openly considered by government or policy makers. Because its been such a large demographic cycle, they have literally never happened here, and for good reason, the demographics never opened the door to it. Its when the demographics become a tailwind that you get issues appearing, that is really what I'm trying to highlight, Its not me exaggerating things because of some inner stance I have, its that the demographics do the exaggerating for me. If anything to be totally honest, what I’ve said has been me trying to downplay things, so as to not appear totally ridiculous and have things overlooked entirely.

I just parrot what the data says, if that's scaremongering, I blame the data.

Right now, policy makers need to (I believe) be engaging in offsetting these issues, not amplifying them further. One thing that appears to happen when demographics turn, is that housing volumes collapse, the foreign buyer ban is just reinforcing that.

lalaland you're not answering my points at all!!! I don't question the data, the data is scary, I agree. I have positioned our family finances accordingly myself.

I have also on this site, several times pointed to the issues of the very same demographic cycle that you highlight above. However, the affects of the demographic have only just begun. I don't think that cycle will be keenly felt for maybe another decade. It has started maybe, but the peak affect has yet to occur, and when it does, it won't be related to the foreign buyer ban!!!

Your portrayal of the OBR is completely distorted. It's just a blatant misrepresentation.

There is HUGE group of under 40's who have been unable to buy a home and wish to do so. HUGE pent up housing demand. Where is that in your equation? All those people waiting aren't too scared to buy, they BLOODY WANT A HOME but don't want the life crippling affects of a giant mortgage. If houses return to some kind of normal healthy DTI in Auckland (and other overpriced areas), the under 40's will pile in. God knows they have been saving. We have data on that too. And no the OCR is not going to wipe out all of that. There will be a floor under any housing correction caused by the younger generations who have hitherto been locked out of the market. I don't think we'll ever be looking at a financial apocalypse-type correction. Yes there will be credit tightening, there already is but that will be more keenly felt by the specuvestors and get-rich-quick-PI's who went to the naff seminars, those negatively yielded muppets who believe in eternally rising property values like it's a chapter in the bible. The professional landlords will be fine, they are positively yielded, they will just carry on renting their houses out and if yields return because of lower house prices, they will buy some more properties (if they have enough capital during the credit tightening) and this may even lead to rents coming down.

I don't know why you are being so extreme.

I can't really answer these questions because they aren't actual questions, they are built on fallacies. Everything you have said, even what you are citing as data/fact, isn't actually true.

I can nit pick what you've said above, but one example would be the demographic starting in a decade, it actually started 3-4 years ago and has been offset by migration, and 175bp of interest rate cuts so its pretty clear to me you haven't studied this.

Same with the under 40's part, that demand pressure ended roughly last year to somewhere this year.

You say you don't question the data, but it seems you haven't actually looked at it to start off with.

Yeah, I admit. I have no clue what you are talking about.

The main bulk of baby boomers have not retired yet. So that demographic affect has begun, but nowhere near reached peak.

And I have no idea what you are basing your point on, that demand pressure for millennial's has ended already. I think you really are living in a different world to the rest of us.

It’s the beginning of the retirement, not the peak of the retirement, that causes the economic problems. It’s near instantaneous as to the observable effects in the economy and housing market.

Peak demand pressure has ended in the under 40s age group. It’s totally observable. That has peaked. It’s not even up for debate, unless we see mammoth immigration from here to change it. All these things influence growth rates.

You’re making me out like some sort of delusional old man, but the problem is what you say, or think happens, doesn’t line up with what actually does, at all, hence why you’re just reverting to ad hominem attacks, it’s actually quite pathetic.

My best advice would be good luck.

Great news. The more controls we have in place to discourage property speculation the better. The less attractive it is to speculate on capital gains the better - and hopefully it'll move towards investment based on yield.

Then we might get some good investment into innovative sectors. I'm sure no one will be too unhappy if we start selling loads of successful startups to foreign investors!

Very first sentence of the article doesn't read right to me.

Associate Finance Minister David Parker has confirmed the Government is proceeding with its plans to restrict the sale of residential property to overseas buyers.

Does this mean we're only allowed to sell to Overseas Buyers?

Haha...perhaps he didn't go to a Grammar School?

lol - another TGIF error :-).

Good if they do and pass the law without diluting the content.

Anyone in propoerty market specially the real estate agent will vouch for the role played by foreign buyers.

National turned a blind eye infact supported it and the result people turned blind eye towards national and supported Labour.

Still wait and watch

hahaha nice little shot at Grammar there ex expat I commend you in taking a half opprtunity

The thing with Grammar is you don't need to justify it to anyone as being an Elite school it does this itself. As for the likes of Selwyn...well... I suppose they have someone of your calibre cheer leading for them which is hilarious.

I know what I would rather have on my CV :)

Do people typically put their high school in their CV? I stopped bothering with that as soon as I got a degree. I would find it a bit tragic if I got a CV from anyone over the age of 25 and it had their high school on it.

The Kings alumni son occasionally gets asked which house he was in, but that's social small chat, not job related. What distinguishes a Kings boy is their deportment and confidence, not the name. Look the person in the eyes while talking to them, strong handshake and respect for the other person's mana by addressing them with the correct title. Good table manners and diction come from the home environment and are instantly recognisable in social situations. You will not hear an F or C bomb in my house. They also know their whakapapa. None of that required any help from a nanny state.

Goddamit Rexy, I find myself on your side, I've always liked you fella, and no doubt you'll be waving the red flag soon,, you know you're on the wrong side - except for the swearing - swearing is a sign of intelligence and honesty - https://www.sciencealert.com/swearing-is-a-sign-of-more-intelligence-not...

That’s scary, but the truth is that schools like Kings don’t require right of centre political affiliations e.g. sure the the Key and Barry kids were there but I’m almost certain Willie Jackson’s son went to Kings as well. Apart from paying the fees it’s not elite either. Do an entrance exam to make sure you won’t dilute the academic record too much, pay the sign up fee, buy the uniform and you are sorted. It’s a $180,000 plus decision. The Selwyn son wants it spent on a US University.

Hmmm, I went to a rather better public school than you have in NZ, a school that has much more clout globally than NZ. Which maybe gives me a different perspective on class and meritocracy than the one you have.

My daughter attends Selwyn, because she chose to, there were multiple options available to her, but she wanted to go there. I was extremely hesitant about the prospect, but I went to the open day and was pleasantly surprised, there's a lot of passion there, a lot of determination to turn around the school's "lack of status", it's zoned now so an entirely different intake of students, in an exceptionally wealthy area (you can take the boy out of public school, you can't take out the snobbery), there's a tiny roll as the Kohi and St Thomas kids disappear off to Dio, St Kents etc...

When Carol White left, the school turned a corner and started to address local needs. As a result the Kohi and St Thomas cohort started to reconsider it. My son reckons a third of his class went on to Selwyn. He hasn’t regretted it, neither have we.

Quick sell your double GZ house now - there is a huge rush for the next few months.

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I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if tens of thousands of specuvestor parasites suddenly cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced. I fear something wonderful has happened.

Strange, I thought I heard a whimpering whilst out walking the leafy green streets today. I do hope the schizophrenic DGZ/Dr Smith are alright.

And Westpac were very quick to raise a term deposit rate to 3.85%... mmmhhh.. And they wanted a flat housing market for 30 years but are now seeking depositor funds whilst kiwibank reduce their mortgage rates........

I think this is fake news. According to the Govt website, the Bill is still in Select Committee, and the Report on submissions isnt even due until 21 June. After that it still has to have a Second Reading, go through another Committee, have a Third Reading, and then maybe it gets passed. Who knows how watered down it will be by then.
https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/bills-and-laws/bills-proposed-laws/docum...

Exactly, what would David Parker know about it anyway?

I think this is fake news. According to the Govt website, the Bill is still in Select Committee, and the Report on submissions isnt even due until 21 June. After that it still has to have a Second Reading, go through another Committee, have a Third Reading, and then maybe it gets passed. Who knows how watered down it will be by then.
https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/bills-and-laws/bills-proposed-laws/docum...

You are too kind trying to sooth the terrified specuvestors.

It needs to go through two more readings, no select committee unless they uncover something major

The Boy keeps harping on about how little the new government is doing. Well here is one thing they are doing and it is already more than National did in nine years. This will make him even angrier than he has been of late. Auckland and Christchurch might just get a bit softer with this although how much softer can Christchurch get than it is already.

Gordon, is that the best you have got?
The Government is wasting a helluva lot of money with working groups and ministries, solely because they know that they lied about being able to satisfy their stupid policies, and with working groups they can shift the blame away from themselves.
Seriously Gordon, you know that they are hopeless!
As for soft house prices, is great for us and investors and none of the policies designed to shaft landlords affects us!
Challenge still there Gordon, go on take me up on it and donate to charity and my family trust and Interest .co.

I very much doubt a regulatory impact statement was done just as they did no such thing before announcing the Oil and Gas ban either. This Bill certainly was still in the Select Committee stage last week when I had a tour of Parliment. The unintended consequence of this Bill even before it has become law has been to frighten foreign capital away from NZ, capital that is required to get new projects off the ground. Maybe it's a good idea overall but Australia did this in the 1970's and look at their real estate prices. I wouldn't hold on to it having any impact as the so called Foreign Buyer market from China largely dried up last year with their capital controls being implemented.

The thing is that the Australian version has so many loopholes you can drive a Great Wall through it. Which is why I suspect the NZ version will be the same. For instance, Australia allows temporary residents to buy houses, with the proviso that they be sold if/when the person leaves the country. However, nobody ever checks if the house has been sold. And they allow foreign buyers to buy existing homes for the purposes of redevelopment, so they buy all these homes on big sections in the leafy suburbs, submit a planning proposal to council, then do nothing about it for years while the house sits empty appreciating in value. And then there is the foreign buying of land for redevelopment - no restrictions on this with 2/3 of Melbourne land going to Chinese developers https://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/vic/twothirds-of-all-sales-f...

I am betting that this is exactly the same rubbish legislation that will ultimately end up being passed - looks good on paper but useless in practice.

Why would you buy a property in Christchurch now The Boy knowing full well it is going to drop in price along with the current rents it might or might not be getting. You are not as good as you think young man. You should have diversified but no you know better. You owe it to your family to take some advice and you should be quick about it as you are not getting any younger.

THE MAN 2 with his ramblings reminds me of Dick Dastardly, i wonder if he has a dog called Muttley.

Interesting how everyone starts to panic as if the shock of escalating asset prices, housing in this case, just came upon us over night. I'm scratching my head ! Prices will always, in any investment, revert back to the median. I've been in this game much too long not to notice the alarm bells. And I have never succumb to want over need. The warning signs have always been there both in NZ and in many other parts of the world. Some , like the USA, have already had their housing armageddon. Many other parts of the world will have their correction as well, but hopefully not too drastic....its historical, present and futuristic or in other words cyclical. I can only assume then that the shock comes from a lack of information or perhaps a greater enjoyment in watching "The Jaquie Brown Diaries" or some other popular sitcom series then listening to an incomprehensible language for hours by blokes named Ben Bernanke , Alan Greenspan , Mark Carney , Mr. Wheeler and Mr. Orr. Hell no! I don't think guys are very predictable either , but at times there seems to be a consensus on matters and the consensus over the last many years has always been inflated asset bubbles induced by cheap monetary policies. I think the correction in prices will be much higher then most have forecasted brought upon by several internal and external shocks , like foreign buyers, which have contributed to extraordinary events unfolding. Its already happening in many parts of the world.

Prices will always revert to the median. Exactly right Patrick.

Skeptical

Wait and watch what happens. As per them the process should be completed and we should have a law by next months (So no delay is good) also will know soon, if they dilute or manipulate any clause originally proposed.

Test of Labour.

Panic selling has begun! Check out this remarkable park-side haven in the middle of Remuera - asking only $10,000,000!! In DGZ - Chinese buyers please act quick before the ban bhuahahaha!!
https://rwremuera.co.nz/auckland/remuera/78-orakei-rd-18573069/

This has a new agent but is not a new listing. It has been on the market for a long time with a different agent.

It's not really on the market though at that price is it.... Unless you sell stuff in lalaland.... he was here earlier... if you're quick you may catch him to see if he'll buy it.

Another panic selling after this article was released today! CV only $11,000,000 Superb elevated 659m² home on a coveted northern slopes site in DGZ faces north-west, basking in sun with expansive views. Chinese buyers please act quick before the ban bhuahahaha!!
https://www.bayleys.co.nz/1751545

Who would pay £6,000,000 to live in a shed, 2000 miles away from the nearest decent city and over 6000 miles from a proper continent? Also to have no land and neighbours so close they practically overlook your wife and kids in the garden.... I think this gamblers den may have just closed Double-GZ..

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-67588904.html - short skip out of London and Gatwick Aiport. similar money - neighbours.. nah, space?

What a bubble....

Doesn't look like anyone lives there Double-GZ???

I think it is lived in. I doubt stagers would stick things on the fridge with magnets.

It's a fun game I play sometimes, trying to figure out if a place is staged or not.

How many people are living in this house ? 2 or 3 or 10 ?

A Chinese student and a pussy cat.

Which one of them is you

Yeah, I don’t get it either. I know that area well. I can think of many better ways to spend $11m than this. Nah

What’s your nearest “decent city”? Sydney I suppose. Have you tried Buenos Aires? Wow now that’s a proper world city

Sydney or Singapore....

Maybe Chinese would?

But for 6m quid they could literally go anywhere in the world. Why come here, hardly like it’s “convenient”? Don’t get that, at all. Chinese don’t really want here, they want Canada or Australia. They want proper cities, not this sh$thole

It was very convenient Bobster... factory owner from China buys a house in Auckland.... gets cash out of the country (or Chinese bank debt which is huge).. 12 months later sells NZ house to mate who owns Chinese factory next door (gets money out of China, or bank debt)... 12 months later, sells to factory owner next door (gets money out of China, or bank debt) - sells to .... This is starting to sound repetitive and I'm sure hasn't happened during the unregulated tenure of the Key/English Administration.... or Factory owner (gets money out of China, bank debt... buys John Key's house) John swans off......Chinese debt bubble?/ NZ debt bubble trying to compete.. One way game..... Now in reverse... Chinese Revolution?? Lets hope not...

Yes so very convenient if you use a RE agent like this to market your beautiful properties. https://youtu.be/32FDpLRBOps

So where do you live Bobster?

In the sh*thole lol!

Isn't there where you spend your nights.. like the bloke caught pooing in public..

None of your business, weirdo. I don’t give my address to strange people I encounter on the internet. How about you?

haha!!!

I'm not asking for your address Bobster, just the city. It's pertinent to the discussion. If you live in Auckland then I don't think it is me who is the "weirdo".
I will happily tell anyone I live in Auckland.

Wow, that really shows the depth of someones personality, is that all you have to hang your hat on, your post code?

Now come on Clementé Bobster called Auckland a sh#thole so don't you think it would be interesting if he was still choosing to live there?

I would call Auckland a 'quite nice mid sized city' but it's really overpriced for what it is - in my opinion.
It's far from amazing.
It used to be much better, when it was much more affordable and when it's nice beaches weren't overcrowded and polluted.

Finally a sensible reply.

Although is something overpriced if people are willing to pay that price? Is something un-affordable if people can afford it?

What a dump.

Yawn

Dont really like that house, I would take it in a heartbeat, but would sell it.

I rather a beach view, or a view of some sort, but for all that money definitely buy house off a beach. I like the houses along Takapuna, Cheltenham, and around the Shore, plus some good places around the Eastern Beaches, even Waiheke. They have easy access to beach.

Devonport has a nice villagey feel and close to city & beaches.

To be fair I would never spend that much on a house even if I had the money. I would take the 11 mill though.

I can smell and taste those sweet sweet words of John Wheeler : 2018 - The year of the crash !

Where is that bloke..

No offence, but Nic Johnson reminds me of him

really HO....

I thought I was carving my own niche!

I meant in a good way:)

no offence taken.. Whoever he was/is... he was right 2018 is the start.

Big promises and saying the right thing but wait and watch.

Lot can and will happen between now and passing of the bill.

Labour party intend will be clear by next month.

If sincere will impliment it as promised or will find ways to delay and dilute.

What's the alternative; selling off NZ to the highest bidder so Boomers can make a fast buck for sitting on their asses, whilst selling out the younger generation of Kiwis! Are you out of your tiny little mind!

CJ099, didn't you fairly recently sell your rental properties to the highest bidder? Hoping to make a fast buck after the market crashes?

Like most people who are wanting the foreign buyer ban, guarantee it they'd be against the ban if they were selling a house and they were presented a local offer for $800,000 and a foreign offer of $1,000,000.

It will get watered down to the point it has no effect but will serve to keep their election promise and so keep all the Labour voters on this site happy, which is most of the people on here looking at the likes for anything pro Labour.

Where a property is purchased in the name of a nominee(s),trust or entity where the true beneficial ownership is undisclosed or nebulous,then the purchaser should by DEFAULT be classified as foreign.And therefore subject to OIA approval.

And the law ought to have penalties on those who seek to circumvent the law ( including their advisers who aid & abet).

Come on IRD buck up & play your part in giving some teeth to the OIA Bill when it becomes law. How about scrutinising more diligently those who have seemingly little or zero income but are suddenly flush with cash to purchase houses ( & multiple ones) or who show a pattern of buying as nominees for others ???

About bloody time! If only National had done this YEARS ago. Yes I am bitter. I left the Auckland market in 2007 & moved to Dunedin for 8 years & buying back into Auckland was looking near impossible for my family unless it was an apartment. Not sure I will ever forgive National for the way it handled this one. It has affected so many NZers & for generations to come. Unless house prices drop significantly many will be locked out of the housing market, therefore have the freedom & choices that go with owning one's own home, especially later in life.

Moving out of Auckland to Dunedin and then expecting to just be able to move back to Auckland years later was always going to be a stupid idea. The provinces have never kept up with Auckland pricing and its logical that even if they went up at the same percentage, the houses in Dunedin were under half the price to start with so the gap in dollar terms just gets bigger and bigger. I wouldn't be blaming National, blame yourself for moving. Your never locked out of the housing market, its about life choices and some of those choices are not your "Gods given right" so harden up.

Hahaha it's all fun and game ;-)
The good and the bad of Whanganui's 'buoyant' housing market
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=120...

Interesting article that Double-GZ. It seems so sensible to move somewhere else if life becomes uncomfortable where you are. We're not living in medieval villages anymore, there's a whole world of affordable places out there.

Yeah how dare someone want to move to where there are better opportunities, and then expect house prices to remain at a reasonable price, they should expect money laundering, foreign buyers, immigration to go through the roof, common sense really.

The foreign buyer ban is just the start - next they need to shut migration down for at least 2 years - National let far too many people in to NZ based on criteria for entry that was just too easy. Also need to shut the door on families who are already here and now trying to bring in their elderly parents who do nothing for the economy and drain our health service.

Actually National already did this BigBlue. That parent visa was frozen in 2017 I think.