How New Zealand will manage the “retreat of last resort” and potential abandonment of some areas of the country due to the impacts of climate change will be addressed in new legislation planned to be introduced by the end of 2023.
The Government released its National Adaptation Plan on Wednesday morning, which outlines the strategies, policies and proposals it says will help New Zealanders adapt to the changing climate and its effects.
Climate Change Minister James Shaw says the plan is NZ's first national adaptation plan, bringing together in one place the Government’s current efforts to help to build climate resilience. It sets out priorities for the next six years.
"The actions in this plan are intended to drive a significant, long-term shift in our policy and institutional frameworks. They will ensure climate-resilient development in the right places and support communities in considering a range of adaptation options. And they will result in better information about what our future climate will look like, enabling better decisions about our response," Shaw says.
The plan places proposed actions into future work programmes with an emphasis on quality guidance for all decision makers - including members of the public and business - by ensuring wide access to up-to-date climate data projections and climate information on LIM reports, reforming how and where infrastructure is built and funded, and tackling the thorny issue of how communities will adapt to climate change, which in some cases could mean walking away from high risk areas.
The Government will develop legislation it hopes will address the complex issues associated with managed retreat and will be included in development of the Climate Adaptation Act.
Managed retreat aims to reduce or eliminate exposure to intolerable risk and enables the relocation of assets, activities and sites of cultural significance away from areas at risk from climate change and natural hazards.
The plan says the legislation will consider how to minimise risks to social cohesion which can fray when communities need to relocate. Low-income groups and people with mobility issues and the disabled have unique challenges when faced with being forced to move, and the legislation will need to consider those challenges, the plan says.
How current tools and mechanisms can support managed retreat will also be considered before the new law comes into force with councils and communities having a role in this process.
The plan outlines how local government has a range of planning options that can avoid or delay the need for relocation including restricting further development and particular uses of land through planning rules like zoning rules. Zoning can signal an area may not be viable for development in the longer term and standards can be set – through rules and consent conditions – to improve the resilience of development in areas exposed to risk. It gives examples of minimum floor heights and flood-proofing requirements.
Risks 'may become intolerable'
But, in some highly exposed areas, the risk from natural hazard and climate impacts “may become intolerable”.
“Inundation of buildings and infrastructure will start to occur, leading to direct damage and loss of some facilities like roads or other lifeline services, and public open space. In some cases, the risks may reach a threshold where relocation will need to be considered.”
Flooding is singled out as a major area of concern.
About 675,000, or one-in-seven, people across NZ live in areas that are prone to flooding, which amounts to nearly $100 billion worth of residential buildings. the Ministry for the Environment says. A further 72,065 people live in areas projected to be subject to extreme sea-level rise, and the number of people exposed to these hazards will increase as the climate changes.
Many of New Zealand’s urban centres are located on the coast or on floodplains of major rivers and the economic costs of climate change related flooding over the last 10 years are an estimated $120 million just for privately insured damages.
The plan proposes that options for home flood insurance be developed by Treasury with the Government agreeing on the next steps by the end of the year.
It says insurance supports New Zealand’s resilience to extreme weather events and reduces the need for the government to intervene after the event to help communities recover.
“Home insurance could also bring other benefits including signalling risk through underwriting and pricing and giving homeowners peace of mind.”
In the UK such insurance is already available for homes at the highest risk of flooding built before January 2009. It’s funded through compulsory levies and reinsurance premiums for flood-prone homes. Houses built after January 2009 instead face paying whatever the market prices the risk at to discourage building in flood-prone areas. The scheme has a finite date so homeowners can manage risk on the longer term without more government intervention.
The importance of data
Data has been identified as a critical area where work is needed.
NIWA, and other government agencies, are tasked under the plan with ensuring relevant data is collected and made available for anyone grappling with climate decisions. For example NIWA has been given a deadline of January 2023 for national climate projection datasets.
The Ministry for the Environment and Toka Tū Ake EQC (EQC) will develop risk and resilience and climate adaptation information portals to give the public natural hazard risk information, and provide access to climate data and information. Eventually, the plan envisages one portal as a national self-service information site. EQC has been given a deadline of the end of this year to deliver the first phase of the risk and resilience portal.
It says detailed 3D coastal mapping and use of global satellite systems will help to assess the impacts of sea-level rise and help us understand how storm surges and tsunamis will affect communities, infrastructure and biodiversity.
Better data to understand risks for public buildings and cultural sites is also needed.
A methodology for risk assessment for public buildings is proposed as is a guidance for disaster risk management for cultural heritage.
A forestry planning and advisory service will help to reduce climate risks by providing data-informed advice and planning tools for the industry while farmers get an Integrated Farm Planning Programme.
The farm programme will give the rural sector a framework to incorporate all data including greenhouse gasses into farm planning with an overarching goal of having farmers and growers meeting all regulatory and business needs within this single framework.
Again, data is a key component of on-farm work. The plan calls for the design and implementation of a Farm Monitoring Programme that will collect information from up to 2,000 dairy, sheep and beef, deer, arable and horticulture farms/orchards.
“Quality data will inform decision-making to enable improved farm management decisions and profitability, while considering compliance and regulations to assist greenhouse gas reductions.”
Māori, who face infrastructure challenges in rural and remote areas, and are vulnerable to climate-related road closures, power cuts and impacts, will have a specific platform for climate action that will develop adaptation responses in partnership with Māori. An Interim Ministerial Committee will be established by the end of 2022.
The public will also be encouraged to think about climate change as part of being prepared for emergencies, and by the end of March 2024 a public education strategy will be developed for natural hazards.
Shaw says it will always be more cost effective to invest early in climate resilience than to live with the costs of inaction.
“The National Adaptation Plan brings together more than 120 actions that together provide a blueprint for more resilient communities, where everything from our homes to the way we grow our food is protected from the worst effects of climate change."
“New Zealand has a history of solving challenges through innovation, resourcefulness and determination – and adapting to climate change is no different. The sooner we act, the more effective that action will be," says Shaw.
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