Immigration is once again shaping up as a hot political issue leading up to November’s General Election, but a twist this time around is that emigration - the number of people leaving the country long-term - is likely to be just as big an issue as immigration - the number of people arriving.
The issue of high levels of emigration was most recently raised by Labour leader Chris Hipkins in his State of the Nation speech on February 23.
“Every week, another 2000 New Zealanders leave the country because they can’t see a future here,” Hipkins said.
“Nearly 240,000 people have left the country in the last two years,” he added.
What Hipkins didn’t say is that the current great exodus of people leaving New Zealand long-term actually began under the last Labour Government, and really built up a full head of steam in 2023, during Labour’s final year when Hipkins himself was Prime Minister.
According to Statistics NZ, the number of people leaving long-term increased steadily under the last Labour Government, rising from 54,600 in 2020, to 70,409 in 2021, 94,540 in 2022 and 101,932 in 2023.
That trend continued under the current National-led government, with long-term departures rising to 118,525 in 2024 and 119,814 in 2025.
The most concerning component* of that exodus is the number of New Zealand citizens leaving the country long-term. This also increased steadily under the last Labour government, rising from 15,334 in 2020, to 65,792 in 2023.
It then increased slightly under the current national-led Government to 67,221 in 2024 before dropping back slightly to 66,309 in 2025.
Looking back a bit further (the Stats NZ figures go back to 2001), neither Labour nor National have exactly covered themselves in glory when it comes to outflows of New Zealand citizens.
The peak outflow since 2001 occurred under John Key’s National Government in 2011 when 71,187 NZ citizens left the country long-term, with another 70,697 following them out the door in 2012.
Labour’s record isn’t much better, with 65,288 NZ citizens departing under Helen Clark’s Labour-led coalition in 2007 and another 68,131 leaving in 2008.
So, although the departure of high numbers New Zealanders for supposedly more attractive opportunities overseas remains a concern, it is hardly a new phenomenon, and it’s one that would be difficult for both Labour and National to claim the high moral ground on with any credibility, based on their respective track records.
*Total departures: The figures quoted by Hipkins in his speech, are made up of both NZ citizens and non-NZ citizens - such as those who have been living in this country on residence or work visas or Australian citizens.
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20 Comments
Yes this is a mutli Government problem. I'm just surprised its not more. We are bleeding doctor, nurses, teachers, police men and women, construction and infrastructure workers etc. This will continue until the sacred property bubble is popped, and it makes sense to "live here" vs paying for never ending landlord and bank profits/greed.
We are receiving 501s though and Uber drivers and bottle washers. Winning.
"paying for never ending landlord and bank profits/greed" - so move to Aus where the landlords and banks aren't greedy?
Agreed. Pretty much same same if not worse but I guess the economy's ability to pay more helps.
That's my point - its nothing to do with landlords and banks, and everything to do with wages.
In fact you could argue that rent is now pretty cheap here relative to the price of building a house, I can only assume the landlords are in it for the good of society...
Its your point. I suggest it has everything to do with that.
Everyone else's point is that NZ doesn't have billions in mining profit/tax being recirculated in the system, and thus cannot match the Aussie wages. No surprises there. Thus we cant/shouldn't pay the same for assets. This is highlighted to debt to income rations. But we try our best to do so and why... tax free capital gain arising from inflation. So that profit sails to the Aussies Banks owners, being Blackrock, Vanguard etc etc.
Not winning.
Exactly that, we can't have higher wages, so price of assets is the adjustment variable.
"NZ doesn't have billions in mining profit/tax" Perhaps making mining difficult to establish has something to do with it. No doubt koha to Maoris is also off putting to mining companies. "
Genesis and Meridian have spent more than $100 million, around 2023, to enable re-consenting the Waitaki hydro scheme.This is to the relevant Maori tribes and DOC. DOC got a chump change portion of the +$100m. They'll see overseas mining companies or their local subsidiaries as a soft touch. Both Labour and National have enabled this over decades. Not sure about with Winston first.
This has nothing to do with property. The Australian real estate market is far, far worse for migrants and FHBs and if property was the issue we would be flooded with Australians. Find another axe to grind.
It's jobs and wages. Labour completely sh*t the bed on inflation and National hasn't had the vision or ability to invest in any long-term projects that create jobs and industry.
And half of NZs "exports" to Australia are NZ immigrants who use NZ residency as a back door to Australia
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/567964/nearly-half-of-kiwis-applyi…
We've been here before: in 2001 John Howard monstered Helen Clark into removing the long standing NZ/Oz citizenship route which was only reopened a couple of years ago. We should stop this current rort ourselves or I doubt that the current Nz/Oz citizenship regime will last long given the current Oz political dog whistling.
How refreshing to be presented with statistics which paint the true picture about the dire state of this country, but are devoid of the usual spin by the obligatory refrain: " but its not as bad as it seems"!
NZ has been in an RBNZ induced coma for 3 years. Hopefully we will be coming out of the coma soon feeling as good as new.
Aus decided to go for the band-aid instead, and it has worked OK so far. However I suspect they are starting to get a raging fever.
Good article - shows nothings really changed when you smooth out Covid. The reality is its very hard to provide lots of highly paid jobs in a small remote island country - its building slowly though with the tech industry now our 3rd biggest export industry and growing at around 8% YOY.
My kids have been/are overseas and talking to them and there friends theres still a strong pull back for family and lifestyle. They realise they will never earn what they can offshore back here.
Interestingly I've noticed a lot of them now talking about retirement funding - they can get 10 to 15% offshore (on top of incomes) and it seems to be having a larger say in what they do - some wont be able to take off the golden handcuffs. They don't believe our NZ super will exist when they get older.
Overall they are much more international in their outlook - living in one place only is strange to them. They see the world as their home.
Aside from that with an ageing population in richer countries there seems to be a constant demand for younger skilled people which is very different to 30 years ago - that demand isn't stopping anytime soon.
What Hipkins didn’t say is that the current great exodus of people leaving New Zealand long-term actually began under the last Labour Government, and really built up a full head of steam in 2023, during Labour’s final year when Hipkins himself was Prime Minister.
Ah yes, it is good to see memory hasn't faded yet on the shadow cast by the 6th Labour government. Now shall we refresh as to WHY so many kiwis left under their tenure:
- Housing too expensive and unaffordable
- Mortgage rates too high to manage in NZ, easy to rent the place out and move to better wages in OZ
- Social division brought about by vaccine mandates and locking a portion of citizens out of hospitality and sporting venues, as well as their own country while overseas during lockdowns
- Failing in all areas they promised, for example, but not limited to; housing, healthcare, child poverty
- Loss of confidence in the image of NZ culture and society due to govt choices and social division
- Much better wages in Oz on average
- Poaching from AUS organisations investing in advertising in NZ for core roles such as police, nurses
- AUS opening up 4 year to citizenship pathway for NZ citizens
- Poor fiscal management of borrowed funds by the then finance minister of which all NZers are paying back still
- And more...... see here at a dedicated website to these failures
While housing had a predominant effect from RBNZ decisions and lack of decisions, lockdowns in ad of themselves increased demand and caused an inflow of kiwis abroad moving home from uncertainty, adding fuel to the fire.
For those thinking anything would be different under another Labour government, see the above and lest we forget lessons learned.
Plenty of reasons why the young are leaving under a National government too. The young do tend to vote left, they tend to care about the environment and all the "woke" stuff that the coalition hate on. Aussie went left, NZ went right, and the young are leaving. Plus most of the stuff above also applies to the previous and current National governments: house prices, wages, etc.
However I tend to think the main reason is "Much better wages in Oz on average"
Higher wages and the opportunities to see/do more than they can at home. Similar reasons why other Pacific Islanders come here, or people in small towns move to the city.
Nevermind the rest of your personal grievances
Nevermind the rest of your personal grievances
The majority of the voting public in 2023 indicated that these grievances aren't at all personal.
Go woke, go broke.
"Coal, oil, gas and metal ore mining was top, with a median income of $136,770 and a mean of $144,450.
Computer systems design and related services was second, with a median income of $125,630.
It was followed by exploration and other mining support services on a median $124,960"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/360823433/which-sectors-pay-more-media…
Are unions woke? Can't remember
Never fear. Both parties simply import people to take the place of the one's who left. It's "good for the economy" didn't you know.
IMO we need to immediately cease high-traffic roading with parking being converted to cycle lanes. People who go to cafes in the winter on a weekday are never, ever, ever, ever going to cycle there. Put cycle lanes through parks and on side streets, not areas that drive economic activity and jobs. Rintoul St in Wellington is another economic casualty. RIP. People don't want to live or trade there now because guess what you need in Wellington 90% of the time? A car because the weather sucks and it's hilly.
Like the raised road crossings, the best money we could spend on cycle lanes that disrupt trade is to re-route them away from places where we want folks to shop.
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