By Chris Trotter*
As surprising as it sounds, Christopher Luxon is in his fifth year as leader of the National Party. He took over the job on 30 November 2021 after Judith Collins had been roughly elbowed aside by her caucus colleagues.
In electing Luxon, National’s MPs were reaching for the reassurance of proven corporate experience. The slogan “less government in business, more business in government”, a staple of conservative propaganda since the 1920s, was, once again, being put to the test.
John Key had delivered, why not Christopher Luxon?
What the last five years have demonstrated, however, is that the slogan is fundamentally flawed. The argument that there should be less government in business is arguable. But the idea of inserting the ethos and methodology of business into government is ridiculous.
The government of a country is very different from the government of a corporation. Both are political, but they are political in very different ways.
A corporation operates on strictly hierarchical principles, with authority flowing from top to bottom through command and control structures reflexively intolerant of insubordination. A corporate chief executive makes decisions in the expectation that they will be implemented efficiently and effectively. If they are not, then the CE will want to know why.
But corporate governance, limited in scope and narrowly focused on the production and delivery of specific goods and services, is ill-suited to the sprawling and often contradictory responsibilities attached to governing a country – especially a democratic country.
The poorly performing division of a corporation can be sold off or closed down. That is not an option when the poor performer in question is the region of a nation. In cases of regional decline, improvement is seldom simple and neglect can be dangerous.
When it’s the population of an entire country that’s struggling, the complexities of government are multiplied one-hundred-fold. The raw material of business is real estate and machinery. The wherewithal of politics is living breathing human-beings.
Men, women and children are not amenable to liquidation. To paraphrase the German playwright and poet Bertolt Brecht: a prime minister cannot simply dismiss the population and employ a new one.
John Key was an adroit political leader who won three general elections on the trot for National. He may have been a multi-millionaire, but he was not a businessperson – at least not in the same way that Luxon is a businessperson.
First and foremost, Key was a trader, and traders have to take account of much more than a single corporate balance-sheet. Traders smell opportunity and failure long before they appear in a CFO’s report. The trader’s perspective, like that of the successful political leader’s, needs to be high and wide enough to anticipate the evolution of events.
In both business and politics, narrowness of vision is an invitation to loss, not profit. Traders and prime ministers have to be able to read people’s minds and see around corners.
Effective political leadership is part art, part science. Unfortunately for the Coalition Government, Christopher Luxon is neither an artist nor a scientist. While all those around him are playing chess, he insists on playing draughts.
After five years in the job, why has Luxon yet to master the rules of the game?
In large part the fault lies in the constitution foisted upon the National Party following its worst ever electoral defeat in 2002.
When set against Bill English’s 2002 Party Vote of 21 percent, the latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Research poll, which has the Luxon-led National Party at 28 percent, looks positively healthy!
Commissioned to design a party organisation that reflected the realities of twenty-first century electoral politics in New Zealand, Steven Joyce opted to sweep away the empowering party structures created in the late-1930s to ensure that National could compete successfully against Labour’s 50,000-strong party organisation.
Joyce’s new constitution reflected the depressing realities of contemporary party politics. The dramatic economic and social changes ushered in by Roger Douglas, Ruth Richardson and Bill Birch between 1984 and 1993 caused tens-of-thousands of unimpressed Labour and National members to vote with their feet.
The days of mass parties were over.
The promoters and defenders of the new economic and social order welcomed this decisive break with the mass-membership traditions of the past, arguing instead for a radical downsizing and professionalisation of their respective parties.
In National’s case this was achieved by giving the party a corporate, top-down, organisational structure overseen by a board of directors thickly padded against the ravages of membership interference.
The weaknesses inherent in Joyce’s streamlined National Party, now almost entirely dependent on professional opinion pollsters and focus groups, were masked initially by Key’s impressive succession of electoral victories.
The growing distance between the governors and the governed, driven by the dramatic narrowing of policy choices demanded by the neoliberal orthodoxy entrenched in both major parties, mattered less when their leaders possessed political antennae attuned to the limits of their respective voters’ ideological tolerance.
Absent Helen Clark’s and John Key’s antennae, however, the leaders of Labour and National soon found themselves dangerously far out over their skis.
Luxon’s misfortune was to arrive in the top job almost entirely innocent of the deep fissures scarring New Zealand’s political landscape. He was parachuted into a party that was very clearly modelled on the corporate structures he had only recently departed. The roiling factional brawls that preceded his elevation to National’s leadership Luxon likely attributed to a shameful lack of discipline, accentuated by poor people management. He was supremely confident that he would be able to straighten out his errant colleagues in record time.
Except, it wasn’t really his colleagues that constituted the problem. They were only reflecting the divisions afflicting the entire world since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 and the jarring experiences of the Covid pandemic.
The neoliberal policies of the Luxon-led Coalition Government show scant acknowledgment of the stresses and strains they are generating. Throughout his prime ministership, Luxon has shown that he just does not “get” the grievances and obsessions of less fortunate New Zealanders.
No matter how many times the Prime Minister acknowledges those who are “doing it hard” the electoral effect is negligible. He simply cannot say it like he means it.
Luxon’s continuing failure to fire is frustrating his colleagues and driving down his party’s poll ratings. Inevitably, this has fuelled speculation that he might be persuaded, or forced, to relinquish National’s leadership.
But what would be the point? It’s not as if any of Luxon’s colleagues would steer a substantially different course from his own. Across both major parties there is scant evidence of new and original thinking. How long would it be before a change in National’s leadership was recognised by voters as no change at all?
The business of politics should not be the politics of business, but who among those New Zealand politicians with a realistic chance of becoming prime minister is willing to make that case?
*Chris Trotter has been writing and commenting professionally about New Zealand politics for more than 30 years. He writes a weekly column for interest.co.nz. His work may also be found at http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com.
46 Comments
"...the idea of inserting the ethos and methodology of business into government is ridiculous."
It works very well for Singapore. Compare & contrast Singapores relative economic performance since the 1960s (mangrove swamp) with NZs (3rd highest GDP pc nation globally, NZD/USD 1.15) - 2026?
However CT is right to say that Luxon really struggles to relate to ordinary Kiwis, as I myself said recently. To engage with the majority (whether the leaders right or wrong), the nations leader needs an x factor that isn't visible in him.
The major responsibility of any Prime Minister is to sell the message politically and socially. Mr Luxon has managed a stable and active coalition government which has undoubtedly commenced a recovery in general but that is meaningless if the the electorate has no perception of the progress. Quite honestly, in this regard, Mr Luxon appears incapable of even selling a cracker to a parrot and as it stands, approaching an election, he is the opposition’s greatest asset. This is because of two issues. Firstly the hounds in the vociferous side of the media have got the scent and from now on will be incessantly at him about his future and he is particularly ill equipped to cope with that. Secondly the run in to the election itself will likely provide scope in the debates to illustrate being tongue tied, uncertain and lacking in either competence or confidence. The public should never be expected to accept the bumbling and fumbling about current affairs that he has consistently presented. It looks to me likely, if he stays where he is, that he will have singlehandedly caused the first one term National government.
"...which has undoubtedly commenced a recovery in general..." Has it? If the population is not seeing the effects then to all intents it is a myth. Corporate NZ my be seeing some benefits, but the economy is rooted in the people, not corporates or banks. The government is increasing it's taxes on a population who are not seeing any benefits of some purported economic recovery.
A fundamental fact that I keep repeating, any economy relies on the general population to have surplus funds to spend. Business succeeding is not a success story when their employees are struggling to survive and the profits are going overseas. None of the parties seem to understand this.
Since the 2023 election about 150,000 kiwis have left NZ. The emigration rate (people voting with their feet) is not slowing down. Luxon and his Coalition government has not only not developed an opportunity economy but for those hundred of thousands of leavers there is no hope NZ will ever deliver an opportunity economy.
DP
Singapore was smart enough to build a proper city. In NZ the government does everything possible to prevent NZs biggest city from prospering, so we’re left with farming.
Well, at least we have farms. A far greater asset than Singapore’s city. Which is just a city and virtually nothing else.
Which also begs the question ’why on earth would you compare the two?’
Singapore lies at a strategic transport choakpoint. Most ships from China to Europe and back pass by. Also a very modern, safe and well managed society surrounded by many that are not.
The population 17% larger than NZ in a land mass the size of lake Taupo.
So yes, nothing at all like NZ.
The reference is to "...the idea of inserting the ethos and methodology of business into government is ridiculous."
Those attributes still apply irrespective of country differences. That's how multinationals succeed.
Those attributes still apply irrespective of country differences
No they don’t. The two are incomparable. You could never run NZ the way Singapore is run and you could never run Singapore the way NZ is run.
We could have both.
Could you though? Singapore is imposed upon its people. It’s not an open liberal democracy in the same way NZ is. Do you think somewhere like Auckland would accept that?
'works' is present tense.
Leadership is about the future.
And the party line is the party line...
gotta be 'trottered out' pun there somewhere
Good policy is good politics. The policy of National leaves a bit to be desired.
"The government of a country is very different from the government of a corporation. Both are political, but they are political in very different ways."
Unfortunately Mr Trotter misses the main point of difference....a Government is (usually) a currency issuer...until the power of that is widely understood we will continue to fail.
That's how we got into this mess. There is no free lunch & no magic money tree.
No...how we got into this mess was (as Murray notes) the abrogation of the political class' responsibility to the markets, who have failed to deliver. We simply swapped public debt for private debt, but the debt still grew, as is required (short of deflation).
The state can operate over much longer time frames without the need of short term return....that is the 'magic'.
"a Government is (usually) a currency issuer" That's the core of it. And as KKNZ points out it doesn't come free, and without caveats and responsibilities. CT didn't go into it so I'm not sure that he doesn't understand, but I am certain that none of the political parties seem to understand it. As a consequence they have largely abrogated their responsibilities as a currency issuer and have for several generations been achieving little more than destroying the economy at the expense or the people.
The fact is, being a currency issuer while having significant risks and responsibilities, also presents major opportunities for the economy and hence the people, but blind hedgehogs just won't get that.
So, if the major parties are short on talent and bereft of usefully innovative ideas, what's the alternative?
The question increasing numbers of voters have unanswered....so (the likes of) Trump.
Given the social division and disillusion our witlessly adversarial politics fosters, I have a nasty feeling you're right: we are ripening for demagoguery.
I was just hoping for slightly more optimistic assessments.
Chris Trotter does not understand business. His comparison fails.
Plenty of CEOs are stuck with underperforming sections (which Chris compares to regions) and are stuck with them. Issuing orders is not realistic. They have to wield influence etc. Politics in fact.
Chris's belief that corporate CEOs operate with complete command and control is his misconception.
Agree wholeheartedly. CTs blindspot / bias is rooted in the historical class divisions & struggles of a century ago. A successful modern multinational matrix organisation such as Luxon worked in for a couple of decades values performance delivery through teams with complementary hard/soft skills & competencies more than individuals.
And if 10% of its workforce refused to work?
? Relevance, connection...
Really?
I think the rentiers that simply pull in the money from "investments" amount to less than 10% of the workforce population. In fact they are more often than not non human workers in the form of a company from a low/no tax location. Using Singapore in a post above is interesting as that's where both the main credit card companies reside paying minimal tax there and way less in NZ. I'd even suggest an unemployed kiwi is better for the NZ economy than those two.
It is business that doesn't understand business.
By avoiding the draw-down of the planet, needed to support.
And the ramifications thereof.
Business is the business of being chosenly ignorant.
And so I classify its supporters.
Id suggest that 'business' is narrowly focused (understandably)....the state has greater responsibility
While that is true, that responsibility is not just that of the CEO but also of the board. If the CEO is unable to address an underperforming section, the shareholders, and board should be asking why. Timeframes (SMART targets; Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant and Time bound) are required.
As a PM fighting a commitment to deliver to the electorate when your first loyalty is to big corporations and banks is just a little problematic. Especially when you don't understand how money works in the economy, and aren't smart enough to recognise that. Successive governments have forgotten what democracy actually means and the rooster's coming home....
KH. Yes, agree. Speaking from experience of managing hundreds of geographically widely dispersed staff I agree CTs opinion that management is mostly command and control, is wrong. Art and science are both definitely required. Successful people management requires delicate political acumen. The belief that non performing staff can be simply be moved on and replaced at a whim is nonsense. Such decisions need to be approached with much careful thought and a detailed understanding of all the consequences for a business. The General Electric Jack Welch philosophy of firing at will quickly brings an enterprise down. Luxon's problem is that he doesn't know how to interact with a generally infantile legacy media, something Key excelled at.
I dislike the current lot and I voted for them.
Problem is I disliked the previous lot far more.
So perhaps this time vote more wisely, even not voting at all is a legitimate option.
Except that on voting day, they only count the actual votes cast. Abstaining, as a vote of no confidence, achieves nothing.
Not voting should be an enforced crime IMO. We have too many not turning up to have their opinions considered and then moaning about the govt of the day when things aren't working out. To be a part of a democracy, you have to participate in democracy. The alternative is those that bother to vote get the majority say which may not be at the best interest of the many vs the few.
My assessment of the situation:
Cabinet is currently at the stage where they're hoping Luxon will have the self awareness to realise he's not fit to lead them to an election win, and through a second term, and will resign of his own volition.
Or
If there's another bad poll result and Luxon hasn't budged, they'll remove him through a majority vote, with enough runway to install a new leader, likely Chris Bishop, before the election.
I give him 2 weeks tops.
While Luxon is a symptom, (off with his head!), our underlying problem is deeper. I foresee that the electorate will kick the can again. We will only change our objectives when we are compelled to. Meantime the semi neoliberal policies / corruption will continue. What shall we sell next? What opportunities would the market provide if instead of wasting money on a second harbour crossing, we privatised the existing bridge? The benefit of reducing the government debt by selling the bridge is obvious, yes? Power pricing issues? Instead of Winnie’s renationalising, sell the generators to the (insert loathsome party of your choice). My prediction: no change in governance, no change in accountability until we have no other choice.
There's always a choice on election day. The challenge is, are the majority of people willing to, and holding important, voting for what they themselves believe and support. Not their family, or friends, or based on one silly TV debate between only two parties, but they themselves wish for. This is the fundamental problem.
But one silly TV 'debate' is in fact what I suspect a disturbingly high number base their decisions upon. Probably a high ppn of the so called swing voters I imagine. Many on forums such as this seem to assume those mobile voters who decide our elections apply the same level of thoughtful consideration as they do. I suggest for a good chunk it's little more than 'I'm doing it tough, time to give the other lot a go'. There is now around 1.5m people in NZ who were not born here, many of whom will have limited knowledge of the various parties history.
Young voters too obviously, but then history is not always relevant with the every changing lineups
The Aussie compulsory & preferential system is what we should aspire to imo
Yes indeed some might remember the hapless decline of the Bolger prime ministership. The worm that turned on the bumph being spouted culminating in a result accused of being buggered by the polls. In fact National today might well reflect that their position today is hardly dissimilar to their position then.
Yep, just as with Bolger - the kinda important issue of the leaders actual competence submerged beneath layers of inane media commentary on his at times unconvincing presentation.
If you had the choice of sound policy and odd personality for leadership, or great personality for leadership and crap policy, who would you choose? This is yet another widespread issue as I alluded to above. People vote on personality thinking "this person will be good for the job" instead of understanding they are simply a pawn for their party, not a president, and the overall policy is far more valuable than someone who can be toppled and replaced at a whim.
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