Allan Barber reports that in key markets, demand for fake meat is sharply lower while demand for the real thing is rising. The climate impacts of red meat farming are getting better understood too

Producers of red meat probably feel shell-shocked by now after years of being told their career choice poses serious threats to people’s health outcomes and, more recently, to the survival of the planet we live on. There are signs the worm may be turning, although it may be too much to expect a wholesale change in public opinion immediately.

There are quite a few straws in the wind to support the renaissance of red meat as an essential component of a healthy diet, among them Bear Grylls announcing his conversion from a vegan to a meat based diet (although his 180 degree about-face may appear rather too excessive for some), last year’s findings by New Zealand scientists on meat’s contribution to global nutrition published in an article in Frontiers in Nutrition, research by a group at the University of California Davis which found animal cell-based meat produced in a laboratory could have between four and 25 times the impact of red meat on global warming, and a decline in alternative meat sales in the UK.

The Davis paper published recently in the journal Nature Geoscience found the warming effect of methane was 30% lower than previously thought because, in addition to the heat trapped in the earth’s atmosphere, methane also creates cooling clouds which partly offset the heating impact. This supports the argument from B+LNZ about the need to apply the GWP* measurement instead of GWP100 to arrive at a more accurate assessment of the warming of methane.

A trend that is less surprising to those consumers who cannot imagine anything more revolting than a vegan sausage is the pronounced lack of enthusiasm of UK shoppers for this supposedly healthier option. A look at the ingredients list shows a whole range of additives which may not be good for your health or, in the case of palm oil, the environment. The vegan or meat free product option contains additives to extend shelf life which suggests it is almost inevitably highly processed and likely to contribute to obesity and ill health.

A Yorkshire sausage maker has reduced its range of vegan sausages by over 80% to just two variants because of a lack of demand. Figures published in The Grocer show a -6.5% drop in sales of meat-free products in the year to the end of September 2022, while the number of alternative meat products stocked by the big five supermarket chains fell by almost -11%.

The article Modelling the Contribution of Meat to Global Nutrient Availability, the result of research by scientists at the Riddett Institute, Massey University and the Fonterra R&D Centre in Palmerston North, presents the results from the DELTA model into the contribution of meat to global nutrition. The authors developed the model to estimate the global food mass balance, using Food and Agriculture Organisation food balance sheets from 1998-2018 as the primary data set and then to analyse total food production and use and to calculate each food type’s contribution to 29 essential nutrients.

The model made it possible to calculate the importance of different categories of meat compared with other food types. The first and most obvious finding is, while meat represents approximately 7% of global food mass, it contributes 11% to total global food energy and disproportionately more to essential nutrients, minerals and indispensable amino acids (IAA). In 2018 it provided 56% of Vitamin B12, 19% of zinc, 18% of selenium, and more than 10% of iron, phosphorous and copper, as well as up to 32% of IAA. Meat from ruminants represented 23% of the total meat consumed, compared with 34% for poultry meat, 32% pork and 9% offals.

The report questions where the required amount of global nutrition will come from, if the increasingly strident calls for meat production to be mandatorily reduced become a reality. It concludes “the extent to which meat should feature in the human diet is under debate but choice will differ between individuals and populations. The DELTA Model demonstrates the current contribution of meat to global nutrition and indicates that a practical replacement, either as a sole or combination of foods, for the full contribution of meat to meeting global nutrient requirements is not currently available and does not appear feasible in the short term. The global contribution of meat to human nutrition must be considered in any debate, decision making, or policy on its production and consumption.” This echoes the conclusion of the 2016 Paris Accord which stated food production should not be threatened by targeted greenhouse gas reductions, because the forecast global population growth makes it essential to meet the resulting nutrition needs.

There is of course the question of variable access to nutrition in different parts of the world and the disproportionate amount of meat consumed in first world compared with third world countries. Diet in wealthier populations, particularly in North and parts of South America, Europe and Australasia, are generally much more meat dominant than in Asia and Africa which contributes to health problems like heart disease, cancer and diabetes. However the general trend is for an increase in meat consumption as wealth increases, suggesting meat consumption will rise in poorer parts of the world, as they become more prosperous.

The demand for red meat from New Zealand will not decrease which places a responsibility on the government to ensure agriculture can continue to operate without unreasonable constraints, while at the same time investing in new farming technologies and methods which minimise its contribution to global warming.

Politicians need to follow the science rather than reacting in a kneejerk fashion to the misinformed demands of sections of the public.

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