Angus Kebbell talks to Fed Farmers dairy boss about the pressures they are facing and how they are using their new influence in Government to push their wish-lists

Water sat at the heart of two stories this week, both reminding us that for farmers and growers alike, certainty is as valuable as rain in a dry spell.

In Mahurangi, oyster farmers woke to find $10,000 mysteriously deposited into their bank accounts - no letter, no explanation, just a payment from somewhere. After seven years of sewage overflows shutting down their harvest whenever norovirus threatened public safety, they’re wary. As oyster farmer Tom Walters put it, “I fear they’re just going to play us like puppets by Watercare.” The irony is stark: the contamination isn’t from paddocks upstream, but from urban sewage systems that won’t be fully fixed until 2026 or even 2028.

Meanwhile, in Waikato, urgent government action has averted what could have been a serious blow to the primary sector. Without changes to water discharge rules, around 2,800 dairy farms - many long-established would have been forced into costly, time-consuming consent processes for everyday activities carried out for decades without issue.

Waikato produces about a fifth of New Zealand’s primary exports, supports thousands of jobs and underpins the national economy. By broadening the definition of permitted activities, the government has kept farmers focused on practical environmental improvements instead of drowning in red tape.

Both stories point to the same truth: water quality is a shared responsibility and solutions must be practical, timely and fair.

That theme carried into my conversation this week with Canterbury farmer Karl Dean, a Federated Farmers board member, National Dairy Chair and spokesperson for immigration, employment and animal traceability. Karl and his wife milk 450 cows near Leeston, alongside a sheep, beef and cropping lease - a diverse operation that sees its fair share of seasonal challenges.

This winter, it’s been wet. Very wet. “We just haven’t had a break in the rain for much more than a week since the beginning of May,” Karl said. At one stage 40% of the farm was underwater and just when things began to dry out, another 40mm fell over a weekend. Add in a run of frosts and stubbornly low daytime temperatures, and spring growth has been slow to arrive.

Despite the sodden conditions, calving is halfway through which Karl counts as a positive. Grass growth is lagging, and farmers across Canterbury are still waiting for the real kick of spring. It’s been a season that feels both cold and long, with highs rarely breaking into double digits.

Yet for all the mud underfoot, there’s cautious optimism in the air. Dairy prices are holding firm, beef is strong and lamb has some upside. “Everyone’s having a good year,” Karl said, “provided the weather plays ball.” The arable sector however, is struggling, with poor yields last season and prices that haven’t followed the dairy lift. The hope is that two strong dairy years in a row will push grain prices higher and drive more demand for homegrown feed.

Farmer confidence, according to recent surveys, has improved markedly from the historic lows of two years ago. “We’re now at almost an all-time high,” Karl noted, pointing to good commodity prices, a government signalling support for farmers and falling interest rates. But no one’s forgetting the cycles. Farmers know the highs don’t last forever, and the trick is to make hay while the sun shines.

At the board table of Federated Farmers, where Karl now sits that realism is matched by a push for long-term certainty in policy. There have been positive steps on forestry and freshwater, with more practical changes on the table than in recent years. The challenge now is ensuring cross-party agreement so that core agricultural policy isn’t rewritten every election cycle.

Karl’s view is clear: “No one wants to see in three or six years’ time that it swings back the other way. We really want to see good cross-party support with some of these long-lasting legislation to make sure that it’s fit for purpose for the next 10–20 years, not just an election cycle.” It’s a point that resonates across the sector - major changes take time to implement on farm, and benefits aren’t always immediate. Swinging the pendulum every three years is a recipe for uncertainty, not progress.

Policy settings also have a direct impact on land values. Karl pointed out that while residential land in Canterbury has soared, agricultural land has stayed static for much of the past decade, a reflection of regulatory constraints. Stability in rules can help the next generation get on the land, while knee-jerk changes can freeze investment.

Looking outward, global trade winds are shifting. New 15% US tariffs could reshape export flows, though Karl expects processors and government will adapt, finding alternative markets. Free trade agreements coming on stream particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, offer new opportunities. The key is diversification, not reliance on one major buyer.

Back home, the focus is on weathering the season - literally. While everyone hopes for a run of sunshine to kickstart pasture growth, Karl warns against counting spring too early. “Here in Canterbury, you can have a beautiful August and then around the 10th of September a cold snap shuts grass growth for two weeks.” Having already recorded near-annual rainfall totals, there’s also the memory of 2013 when a very wet winter was followed by drought. Farmers as always, will work with what they get.

From mysterious oyster farm payouts to regulatory reprieves in Waikato, from soggy Canterbury paddocks to trade negotiations offshore, the message is consistent: certainty matters. Farmers can deal with weather, pests and commodity cycles - that’s part of the job. What holds them back is shifting policy, delayed infrastructure fixes and decision-makers who don’t grasp the realities on the ground.

Whether you’re an oyster farmer relying on clean harbour water, a dairy operator investing in riparian planting, or a mixed farmer trying to manage stock, crops and markets, you need stable rules and fair systems to plan for the future. Rural and urban New Zealand are tied together in this and when we get it right, both sides benefit.

Have a listen to the podcast to hear the full story.

Angus Kebbell is the Producer at Tailwind Media. You can contact him here.