Angus Kebbell on how New Zealand beef can compete in Europe, even where there seems to be forces at work that prioritise 'local' supply

A decision by a European supermarket to shift toward a fully domestic beef supply chain might appear, at first glance, to be a regional move driven by local politics and pressure from farmers. But as is often the case in global agriculture, the implications travel well beyond national borders. For export-focused producers like New Zealand, it is another signal of how the market is evolving and where the real pressure points now sit.

The move itself is not sudden. As Mark Zieg of the Irish Food Board explains, discussions with the retailer had been ongoing for some time, reflecting a broader trend rather than a single event. “We’ve been discussing this for the last 18 months… it’s not as such coming as a surprise,” he says.

What sits behind it is something New Zealand farmers will recognise immediately. A renewed emphasis on local production, not necessarily driven by quality concerns, but by the need for retailers to demonstrate support for domestic agriculture. Across Europe, that pressure has been building, reinforced by farmer protests, policy shifts and a growing expectation from consumers that supply chains should be closer to home.

Yet the reality is more nuanced than a simple shift away from imports. Europe remains a major importer of beef, and countries like Ireland, and by extension New Zealand in other markets, still play a critical role. “We are mostly the preferred supplier,” Mark notes, pointing to shared standards, quality assurance systems and the consistent supply that export nations provide.

That balance between local loyalty and global supply is something New Zealand understands well. Our own domestic market is small, and our industry relies heavily on offshore demand. What happens in Europe is often mirrored in other markets, whether that is the United Kingdom, Asia or North America. The challenge is not simply access, but maintaining relevance.

Where the conversation becomes more interesting is around demand. While there is some growth in support for local supply chains, Mark is clear that this is not the primary driver of change. Instead, the real pressure is coming from the consumer. “Consumers are under pressure… we’ve seen food inflation at a higher level than any time in the last five years,” he says.

That pressure is reshaping buying behaviour in a way that will feel familiar to anyone watching the New Zealand market. Beef remains a premium protein, and as prices rise, consumers are making different choices. Lower-cost alternatives such as pork and chicken are gaining ground, not necessarily because they are preferred, but because they are more accessible.

The implications of that shift are significant. Retailers are responding by reducing shelf space, cutting promotions and focusing on volume lines that move quickly. “We see less shelf space given to beef… there’s less promotions,” Mark explains, highlighting how quickly demand can fall when pricing moves beyond what consumers are willing to pay.

For New Zealand, this is a critical point. Our entire export model is built on capturing value, not competing on price. We are not, and never will be, the cheapest supplier in the market. That means the justification for our product must remain clear and consistent.

This is where the grass-fed story continues to matter. Despite the pressure on consumers, Mark is firm in his view that it remains a key differentiator. “Grass fed really unlocks an awful lot for consumers in terms of natural production, healthy nutrition, taste and animal welfare,” he says.

That resonates strongly with New Zealand’s position. Our production systems are fundamentally aligned with those attributes, and they are increasingly important in premium markets. But there is a warning in this as well. Even the strongest story comes under pressure when household budgets tighten. Premium products are often the first to be reconsidered, even if the underlying demand remains.

At the same time, global supply dynamics are shifting in a way that may provide some stability. European beef production has been declining, with significant volumes exiting the system over the past decade. That has created a structural requirement for imports, even as local production is prioritised. Mark notes that more than 700,000 tonnes of beef production has left Europe in the past ten years, reinforcing the ongoing need for external supply.

This is where the opportunity remains. While competition from lower-cost producers such as Brazil and other Mercosur countries is increasing, global supply is tightening. Production across major exporting regions is expected to fall, which helps to support prices and limit the impact of additional imports.

“Tight supply is our friend here,” Mark says, pointing to the way reduced volumes can prevent excessive downward pressure on the market.

For New Zealand, that dynamic is critical. It provides a buffer against the volatility that comes with shifting consumer demand and increasing global competition. But it is not a solution in itself. The underlying challenge remains the same, to ensure that consumers are willing to pay for what we produce.

That requires more than just a good story. It requires proof. As Mark points out, quality assurance, sustainability credentials and traceability are no longer optional extras. They are baseline requirements for accessing premium markets. “We have to have those proof points… to show that our grass fed is not just a claim,” he says.

New Zealand is well positioned in this regard, but the expectation is only increasing. Markets are becoming more demanding, and the competition is becoming more sophisticated. Countries that can deliver consistent quality at scale, while also meeting environmental and welfare standards, will continue to hold their place.

There is also a logistical advantage that should not be overlooked. Proximity to market matters, particularly in Europe, where supply chains can respond quickly to demand fluctuations. While New Zealand cannot compete on distance, it can compete on reliability and consistency, ensuring that product arrives when it is needed and meets the required specifications.

Ultimately, what this conversation highlights is that the global beef market is not shifting in one direction. It is being pulled by multiple forces at once. Local production is gaining importance, but imports remain essential. Consumers are under pressure, but demand for quality is still there. Supply is tightening, but competition is increasing.

For New Zealand, the path forward is clear, even if it is not easy. The focus must remain on delivering a product that justifies its place in the market. That means continuing to invest in quality, maintaining strong relationships with key customers and ensuring that the story behind the product is backed by real performance.

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Angus Kebbell is a producer at The Weekly Hotwire. You can contact him here.