Content supplied by Rabobank.
Tight global beef supply is expected to support ongoing firm beef pricing in New Zealand and other markets around the world over the remainder of 2026, according to Rabobank’s Q2 Beef Quarterly report.
In the report, Rabobank says global beef production in quarter one this year was down -2.5% on the same quarter in 2025, and the bank’s expectation is that global volumes will fall by 2.2% across the whole year.
“Large reductions are expected for Brazil (down 4%), the US (down 3%) and China (down 2%),” RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst and report co-author Jen Corkran said.
“This lower level of supply in quarter one helped to support global prices across this period with many major beef production countries experiencing a price rise from the previous quarter. Brazil was the strongest performer, with beef prices up 9% from quarter four 2025, while Uruguay, the US and Europe rose by 2%, 4% and 4% respectively.” Ms Corkran said
New Zealand beef prices have softened slightly of late, as supply finally came online locally, but remain firm as export demand holds.
“Farmgate beef prices have eased a little through early 2026, but remain historically high across all categories,” she said.
“Quarter one 2026 export volumes were down around 5%, reflecting slower domestic output, but this has been more than offset by higher values,” she said.
“Average export value is up approximately $2/kg year-on-year, lifting first-quarter export value to $1.56 billion, compared with $1.39 billion a year earlier."
“The US continues to dominate demand, accounting for 46% of New Zealand export volumes in quarter one. China remains New Zealand’s second largest market for beef (21% of volumes) while the UK consolidated its position as the fourth-largest market, just behind Canada.”
Looking ahead, Ms Corkran said, market fundamentals remain supportive for beef producers around the world, and cattle farmgate prices are expected to remain firm through 2026, although ongoing global uncertainty could challenge consumer confidence in 2027 in some markets.
New Zealand beef supply to buck global trend
Ms Corkran said while global beef supply was likely to be markedly lower in 2026, New Zealand production was expected to grow year-on-year off the back of a very low production year in 2025.
“Beef slaughter in New Zealand tracked well below initial expectations through quarter one 2026 as favourable pasture conditions across much of the country supported stock retention. NZ Meat Board data in 2026 showed total beef slaughter down by around 13% over the first three months of the year in comparison to the same period in 2025, as a kind summer and autumn allowed producers to retain cattle longer, add weight and delay send-off,” she said. “However, the slow start to the year has not altered the broader supply outlook, just the timing. The total production forecast is still expected to be up 3 to 4% year-onyear and carcass weights remain a key swing factor.”
Global beef demand key watch point in months ahead
In the report’s feature article, Rabobank says global beef demand will be the major watch point for the beef sector over the remainder of the year, as economies around the world grapple with the flow-on impacts of the conflict in the Middle East.
“Higher energy prices and availability of fuel and plastics are having an impact across a number of regions, particularly those more exposed to the oil supplies from the Middle East such as Asia, Australia, New Zealand and to a lesser extent South America,” Ms Corkran said.
“As a result, we anticipate that most large economies across the globe will see lower economic growth and higher inflation in 2026."
“Right now, beef demand around the world is holding up strongly, but should we start to see a contraction in real household incomes, we may start to see beef demand negatively impacted.”
Ms Corkran said household income has a strong correlation to beef consumption.
“Comparing US beef demand with household income between 1990 and 2024 shows a relatively strong positive correlation between demand and household incomes,” Ms Corkran said. “Any drop off in beef demand would require either a drop in beef prices or volumes consumed. And, in a global market where beef prices are already high, a drop in demand may lead to margin squeeze given a possible resistance to raise prices further.”
Generally speaking, the report says, in a higher cost or lower income environment, consumers might trend towards those products or channels they perceive to have the better value. “If cost inflation persists and economic activity contracts, our expectation is that there will be a tendency for consumers to place a greater emphasis on purchases through retail outlets, moving away from foodservice options,” Ms Corkran said.
“Part or quick service restaurants may be less affected than full service as consumers still appreciate the convenience and experience of eating out but are more conscious of the spend."
“However, these channels of foodservice are already reflecting the challenges of operating in a high beef price environment, and we are seeing quick service restaurants leaning into lower-priced proteins such as chicken and providing value options to attract customers.”
A favourable attribute of beef, Ms Corkran said, is its ability to provide consumers with options across a spectrum of price points, encouraging consumers to continue purchasing beef, albeit at lower price points.
“Protein demand is also very strong globally right now across a number of key demographic groups,” she said
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