As the RBNZ deliberates over the Official Cash Rate, Roger J Kerr asks: Who actually needs lower interest rates?

As the RBNZ deliberates over the Official Cash Rate, Roger J Kerr asks: Who actually needs lower interest rates?

By Roger J Kerr

In reaching their decision this week to leave the OCR interest rate at 2.75% or to cut again by 0.25% to 2.50% the RBNZ will be weighing up the risk/reward outcomes of what stable or lower interest rates will mean for the inflation rate and the wider economy.

The rationale and theory is that a central bank will loosen monetary policy with lower interest rates to stimulate demand, consumer spending and investment - all designed to increase GDP growth and inflation.

The question RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler will be asking himself is whether in the current and expected future conditions of the NZ economy, lower interest rates at this time will actually cause those responses.

I doubt it.

The main reason for the doubt is the fact that inflation and GDP growth are generally driven by the supply side of the NZ economy, not the demand side. Consumer confidence, spending and retail sales are already strong from lower mortgage interest rates, the wealth effect on rising property values and security of jobs from a very resilient economy. Consumer spending does not need any further turbo-charging through lower interest rates.

Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Glenn Stevens made a telling observation last week in respect to interest rates. He seriously doubted whether lower interest rates would stimulate further infrastructure and business investment in the Aussie economy. Other economic/business forces and influences were more important than interest rates in determining those decisions.

Likewise in New Zealand, it is very hard to see major companies postponing expansion and investment decisions because interest rates are too high and they are waiting for the RBNZ to reduce them.

Return thresholds and payback terms for new investments are based on a margin above the company’s weighted average cost of capital and the debt component of that equation is normally a five or ten year bond or swap interest rate. An OCR at 2.75% or 2.00% will not make any difference to these long-term interest rates which are driven by US Treasury bond yields. In any case, both in the US and NZ, large corporates making these decisions have already fixed their interest rates.

The demand side of the economy does not need lower interest rates, so no rewards there. The risks associated with lower mortgage interest rates is that the residential property boom is further fuelled on excessive debt that cannot be serviced when interest rates eventually increase and property values correct downwards.

Would Governor Wheeler want to be responsible for inflating the bubble further when the RBNZ themselves, the Finance Minister, credit rating agencies and the OECD have all been warning us about the economic and financial risks if the housing bubble bursts badly?

Whilst business investors do not need lower interest rates to get on with what they are doing, retail and wholesale investors into bank deposits and fixed interest securities certainly do not need lower interest rates. Incomes for the older generations have been slashed to the bone due to the historically low interest rates over recent years. Bank and corporate fixed-rate bonds offer some yield pick up over bank deposit interest rates, however many Mom and Pop investors remain unaware of how to invest in this manner. Money pouring into KiwiSaver default schemes goes to the cash/fixed income asset classes and receives the low returns. Young workers signing up to KiwiSaver should be given a lifetime investment chart that informs them to be 100% in growth/equities asset classes until they are at least 50 year of age. Unfortunately, that does not happen.

The only argument for lower interest rates might be on the basis of annual inflation remaining below the RBNZ’s lower limit of 1.00% for the next 12 to 18 months.

The RBNZ are still forecasting the annual inflation rate to increase to 2.00% by April 2016, despite views to the contrary from a couple of local banks. I am aware of large retailers preparing to increase their prices in the New Year as legacy NZD/USD currency hedging runs out. Inflation cannot be totally dead when the fruit juice I sometimes buy with my lunch has increased from $7.50 to $9.50 in recent months, a mere 27% increase!


To subscribe to our daily Currency Rate Sheet email, enter your email address here.

Email:  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs »

The '1 year %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Opening daily rate
Source: NZFMA
The '2 years %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Opening daily rate
Source: NZFMA
The '3 years %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Opening daily rate
Source: NZFMA
The '4 years %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Opening daily rate
Source: NZFMA
The '5 years %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Opening daily rate
Source: NZFMA
The '7 years %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Opening daily rate
Source: NZFMA
The '10 years %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Opening daily rate
Source: NZFMA

 

Roger J Kerr is a partner at PwC. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More commentary and useful information on fixed interest investing can be found at rogeradvice.com

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

11 Comments

This is accurate as the full effects of the decrease in OCR hasn't hit yet. I'm still on the mortgage rates where RBNZ was threatening to increase the rate. This will change next year and I'm sure there will be a lot of refinancing over the next year.

I will also be contrarian by changing my mortgage from 30 year to 15 year. It's a good time to reduce principal while inflation and interest rates are low. One of my clients moaned at me because it's all cheap money. If you treat mortgage interest as post tax money (which it is) the actual return on investment is still comparable to investments.

I'd only slow my mortgage repayments and invest that portion of money if I could get a 3.35% or less mortgage.

You missed that those of us who work with and compete with American companies, need our rates to be competitive. Particularly if we're being paid in US dollars!

We would get more growth with lower rates - so unless there is a good chance of excessive inflation, then why not lower rates? Should we be content with 2-3% growth even though we could get more? How long can the RBNZ predict inflation just around the corner and be wrong? How long can they stall our growth before heads start to roll?

Why the obsession with "growth"?
And is a 2.75% OCR “stalling” the growth?

It's stalling MY growth :) Won't someone think of the Exporters?

I assume you mean because of our relatively high interest rate effect on the exchange rate, in which case I agree with you. Deep down we seem to perpetually pursue a high NZD monetary policy, which does seem destructive to any industry competing in any way with foreign suppliers, which is nearly all industries one way or another.. However there are ways to manage or at least encourage a competitive currency, than dropping interest rates from an already historically very low level.

And excluding "Jawboning," what is that? We are in a global race to the bottom. If the only reason not to drop it is idiots using it as an excuse to over leverage on housing, then why not make it less attractive to buy houses AND help exporters? The deals I'm involved in are worth hundreds of new, well paid jobs in New Zealand. There's more to an economy than houses. Not that national seem to think so.

Other matters may be stalling your growth potential. US dollar funding is in short supply and may give cause to prohibit your importer customers' ability to fund inventory purchases from you.

The US dollar premium in FX swap markets widened substantially – in particular vis-à-vis the Japanese yen – after the odds of Fed tightening reached 70%. At the end of November, the basis swap spread of the Japanese yen versus the US dollar was minus 90 basis points, possibly reflecting in part the more than $300 billion US dollar funding gap at Japanese banks. Read more

Well, given that I work in film/media, the number one cause was National being hell bent on destroying the industry before James Cameron (literally, so I heard) kicked them into touch! Which I always found strange, as surely digital exports must be one of NZ's easiest revenues streams as distance is irrelevant?

An uneasy calm over financial markets
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35023696

That's some gourmet Orange Juice, would you be thinking differently if you had a cheese sandwich?