A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; Many retail rate changes, house listings surge, Westpac's profits recover, swaps lower, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank increased fixed rates. Bank of China and the Police Credit Union also raised fixed rates.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There were term deposit rate rises from Kiwibank, Rabobank, and SBS Bank today. And the Police Credit Union did too.

LISTINGS SURGE
New listings on Realestate.co.nz are almost back up to the level of a year ago - even in Auckland. And that is pushing out the time it takes to sell with 12 weeks of inventory now in the market nationally. Sellers may be sensing we may be at the top of the market price-wise.

PROFIT RECOVERY
Westpac NZ's annual profit bounces back up almost +70% from a year ago to $931 mln tax-paid, bolstered by a major reversal in loan impairments that never happened. In the year to September 2020, they reported $550 mln. In the year to September 2019 it was $964 mln. Across the ditch, Westpac shares have been sold off sharply.

CHANGING ORDER
Last week, although the overall NZX50 changed very little, there were a set of notable changes among these listed companies. Most commercial property companies rise, with Stride Property (SPG, #29) up +3.5%. But all the retirement home groups fell, with Ryman (RYM, #7) down -2.5%. The largest rise for any company in this index was Tourism Holdings which went up +5.8%. The biggest loser was A2 Milk (ATM, #11) which fell -8.5% last week.

MOMENTUM LOSS
In Australia, their property market continued to rise in October but the rate of growth has slowed dramatically since the start of the year, as a lack of affordability, less government stimulus and more listings hit the market, new figures show. The compiler of the data says things may turn lower soon.

EXPANDING AGAIN
The China Caixin PMI was a bit more positive than the retreating official one, suggesting things are not completely dire in their private manufacturing sector.

LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In Australia Delta cases in Victoria have risen to 1471 cases reported there today, and less than yesterday. There are now 21,959 active cases in the state and there were another 4 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 136 new community cases reported today with 3,495 active locally acquired cases which is lower, and they also had 4 deaths yesterday. Queensland is reporting zero new cases. The ACT has 5 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 77% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 11% have now had one shot so far. In contrast, there were four new cases in New Zealand at the border, and 162 new community cases including more in Christchurch. Now 88.2% of Kiwis nationally aged 12+ have had at least one vaccination, while the Australian rate is now also at 88.2% of all aged 16+.

GOLD STABLE
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1782/oz and minorly softer than the closing New York price.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.5% to start the week. The ASX200 is +0.6% higher in early afternoon trading there. Tokyo has opened a very strong +2.4% following the re-election of their LDP Government, albeit with a smaller majority. Hong Kong has opened -0.9% lower, and Shanghai has opened -0.2% lower in very early Monday trade. The S&P500 futures points to a modest +0.3% New York opening this evening.

SWAP & BONDS RATES FLATTEN
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They probably retreated. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.81%. It has risen further since this RBNZ fix. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is now at 1.96% and holding from this morning's open. The China Govt 10yr is now at 2.98% and down -1 bp. The New Zealand Govt 10 year rate is now at 2.56% and down -4 bps from this morning. That still leaves it above the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.54% (-7 bps). The US Govt ten year has recovered +2 bps to just under 1.58%.

NZ DOLLAR STILL STABLE & HIGH
The Kiwi dollar is now at 71.6 USc and slipping from where we opened this morning. Against the Aussie we have dropped to 95.4 AUc. Against the euro we are at 62 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 75.3, after a push up this morning and a fall back this afternoon, and still well above the top of the 72-74 range we have been in for most of the past eleven months, and settling in to a new higher band.

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BITCOIN FIRM
The bitcoin price is now at US$61,553 and +1.6% higher than where we opened this morning. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 2.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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