Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank increased fixed rates. Bank of China and the Police Credit Union also raised fixed rates.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There were term deposit rate rises from Kiwibank, Rabobank, and SBS Bank today. And the Police Credit Union did too.
LISTINGS SURGE
New listings on Realestate.co.nz are almost back up to the level of a year ago - even in Auckland. And that is pushing out the time it takes to sell with 12 weeks of inventory now in the market nationally. Sellers may be sensing we may be at the top of the market price-wise.
PROFIT RECOVERY
Westpac NZ's annual profit bounces back up almost +70% from a year ago to $931 mln tax-paid, bolstered by a major reversal in loan impairments that never happened. In the year to September 2020, they reported $550 mln. In the year to September 2019 it was $964 mln. Across the ditch, Westpac shares have been sold off sharply.
CHANGING ORDER
Last week, although the overall NZX50 changed very little, there were a set of notable changes among these listed companies. Most commercial property companies rise, with Stride Property (SPG, #29) up +3.5%. But all the retirement home groups fell, with Ryman (RYM, #7) down -2.5%. The largest rise for any company in this index was Tourism Holdings which went up +5.8%. The biggest loser was A2 Milk (ATM, #11) which fell -8.5% last week.
MOMENTUM LOSS
In Australia, their property market continued to rise in October but the rate of growth has slowed dramatically since the start of the year, as a lack of affordability, less government stimulus and more listings hit the market, new figures show. The compiler of the data says things may turn lower soon.
EXPANDING AGAIN
The China Caixin PMI was a bit more positive than the retreating official one, suggesting things are not completely dire in their private manufacturing sector.
LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In Australia Delta cases in Victoria have risen to 1471 cases reported there today, and less than yesterday. There are now 21,959 active cases in the state and there were another 4 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 136 new community cases reported today with 3,495 active locally acquired cases which is lower, and they also had 4 deaths yesterday. Queensland is reporting zero new cases. The ACT has 5 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 77% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 11% have now had one shot so far. In contrast, there were four new cases in New Zealand at the border, and 162 new community cases including more in Christchurch. Now 88.2% of Kiwis nationally aged 12+ have had at least one vaccination, while the Australian rate is now also at 88.2% of all aged 16+.
GOLD STABLE
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1782/oz and minorly softer than the closing New York price.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.5% to start the week. The ASX200 is +0.6% higher in early afternoon trading there. Tokyo has opened a very strong +2.4% following the re-election of their LDP Government, albeit with a smaller majority. Hong Kong has opened -0.9% lower, and Shanghai has opened -0.2% lower in very early Monday trade. The S&P500 futures points to a modest +0.3% New York opening this evening.
SWAP & BONDS RATES FLATTEN
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They probably retreated. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.81%. It has risen further since this RBNZ fix. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is now at 1.96% and holding from this morning's open. The China Govt 10yr is now at 2.98% and down -1 bp. The New Zealand Govt 10 year rate is now at 2.56% and down -4 bps from this morning. That still leaves it above the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.54% (-7 bps). The US Govt ten year has recovered +2 bps to just under 1.58%.
NZ DOLLAR STILL STABLE & HIGH
The Kiwi dollar is now at 71.6 USc and slipping from where we opened this morning. Against the Aussie we have dropped to 95.4 AUc. Against the euro we are at 62 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 75.3, after a push up this morning and a fall back this afternoon, and still well above the top of the 72-74 range we have been in for most of the past eleven months, and settling in to a new higher band.
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BITCOIN FIRM
The bitcoin price is now at US$61,553 and +1.6% higher than where we opened this morning. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 2.0%.
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38 Comments
"New Listings on Realestate.co.nz are almost back up to the level of a year ago - even in Auckland. And that is pushing out the time it takes to sell with 12 weeks of inventory now in the market nationally. Sellers may be sensing we may be at the top of the market price-wise."
Thank you David, a sensible comment about increasing listings. interest.co.nz puts the MSM to shame. I listened to the OneRoof Podcast [strangely on newstalkzb.co.nz], their ignorance was staggering.. STAG-GER-ING !!
To answer caller's questions they were having to refer to interest.co.nz articles. They are shameless in their ignorance.
Zack Brando
A bit of information you may not have noticed:
Real Estate websites "One Roof" and "Homes.co.nz" are each trying to outdo each other's estimated values on all houses, not just houses for sale. It seems that they've each been upping them every few days. "Trademe Insights" are more down to earth; they are the laggards. Here are the current medium values that they have recently given my sister's 2 bdrm 1960's 70 square metre brick and tile home unit with carport:
Trademe Insights $930,000
One Roof $1,000,040
Homes.co.nz $1,290,000
You might deduce that anyone thinking about selling their property would jump to choose an agent advertising himself/herself on "Homes" website because it has the highest values. "Homes" is owned by 3 private entrepreneurs, whilst "One Roof" is owned by NZME (the Herald and others) and they all feature individual agents and the houses they have sold. Providing super high values, especially at the top of their ranges, which are above the medium values shown above, must create an incentive to list with the agents on that site. And of course, the agents will know this and be keen to advertise their services on "Homes".... a very slick marketing schtick'.
"Westpac’s shocker will test market’s faith" (AFR)
"Across the ditch, Westpac shares have been sold off sharply."
I guess we have an answer to the Aussie headlines already! Image what the Consolidated Results would have looked like without the profit/reduction in Provisioning that New Zealand result gave the parent.
Auckland daily Covid cases not that far behind the whole of Japan. Any connection to all the Kiwifruit they've been eating?.
https://japantoday.com/category/national/Tokyo-reports-22-new-coronavir…
https://www.globaltrademag.com/kiwi-exports-from-new-zealand-to-set-new…
It is interesting....we can’t develop a digital passport, manage our money or build an affordable house.....
yet we can win the americas cup, send a rocket or two to space and win more rugby games than any other nation.....
is it about focus?
are they really trying??
who is they I guess?
Maybe Globalists want to number us like cattle using bio-metric identification - aka the movie Gattaca.
Each "Passport" is associated with a QR code (cryptographic private/public key system) and therefore could be used as a digital wallet in a future world of CBDC.
At best; in the minds of passport advocates, this would prevent the creation of fraudulent accounts [hence Gattaca style bio-metrics].
Advocates for such a centralized system might believe humanity is beyond the mistakes of history.. but of course we're doomed to and are actually repeating history. Human knowledge is spread throughout mankind, not concentrated amongst a global, technocratic political class.
There are supposedly standards [international ??] forming around these 'Global Passports'. People and empires throughout history have tried to concur the world, unite Europe, whatever.. a modern Tower of Babel situation going on here? [see: a picture of the EU Building]
It never ends well for them.. it looks like they have control.. then it crumbles one way or another. The Babel building process ends up being horrific for the people, especially minorities as conformity [believing lies] is required for tyranny to flourish.
The above is a reasonable reflection of peoples concerns.
Thales are one company developing digital passports. A link to their promo.
What doesn’t get a mention though is what are the possible consequences that will be built in for not obeying govt rules such as mandatory vaccinations.
I tuned out a couple of weeks back when 'they lost us' with what it was they were trying to say. And I guess it's not just me. I wonder what the police think when they have to decide how to handle situations such as this?
Police urge adherence to alert level restrictions as tangi planned in Porirua for Mongrel Mob member
Weakness by government is exposed here. This slight relaxation is a political decision and self serving in itself. The vibes are telling, the next polls more likely so. Same scenario as when they buckled and opened up with Australia. Still if their political sensitivity is the motivation, outweighing in substance consideration of the protracted devastation and suffering, to business and family and society in Auckland, at least something gets to reduce the intransigence,
Yes, a 2 is finally appearing in front of a 1-year term deposit from one of the main NZ banks, for the first time after a long interval.
Mind you, the 2 will become a 3 within the next few months. I would recommend investing on a shorter term, as rates still have a long way to go up.
Yep, I also thought it was astonishing hearing Ardern say
"We don't have to be scared of Covid"
What ??? You have been playing the scary, highly transmissible, deadly virus card to terrify the masses and make them agree to whatever rules you seem fit until now and now no more ?
The fish and chip shop lady says all sorts of astonishing things:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/pm-jacinda-ardern-on-house-prices-it-just…
Worht to read - i will not be surprised if it will be promptly removed....
Morgan C Jonas - Mic drop. 🇷🇴 Romanian MEP Cristian... (facebook.com)
LOL!!! This guy (Cristian Terheș) is a real nutter and universally considered a clown. He is a failed priest. kicked out of his own Church; he is famous for his extreme homophobic comments, his ultra-nationalist and religious fundamentalist agenda, and for spreading conspiracy theories about the Deep State.
He has no idea whatsoever about what science is about, and his educational background is in theology (and I think he studied some journalism or social sciences or something like that).
And he did not hesitate to jump back and forth between the populist left and right in order to get elected. He is certainly a fun guy to be around, but to take somebody like him seriously sounds really desperate. By the way, his party has only one MEP.
The Steps versus Traffic Lights is still bamboozling me.
So, my wife works at Auckland Museum, we've been talking about it to work out what it means for them.
Under Step 2, it says public facilities are open, but with NO capacity limits.
Yet the red traffic light says public facilities like museums can have no more than 100 people.
So we might be progressing through a system that gets more restrictive on some things as we move ahead?
???????
Clear, and as logical, as mud.
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