What happened Monday

Business / news

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; many rate changes, Yuong Ha leaving, service sector in pain, NZGIF stumps up another $40 mln, swaps soft, NZD unchanged, & more

15th Nov 21, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank raised its two year fixed rate, up +16 bps to 4.15%. Bank of Baroda, and Unity (see below) also both raised home loan rates.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank, Bank of Baroda and Unity raised some TD rates too.

PERSONAL LOAN SPECIAL
Kiwibank has launched a less expensive personal loan special, starting at 9.95%. That is down from 12.99%.

ANOTHER DEPARTING
The Reserve Bank’s Head of Economics and Chief Economist, Yuong Ha, who is also an inaugural member of the Monetary Policy Committee will leave next year after 25 years with RBNZ.

ENDURING SIGNIFICANT PAIN
The services sector stepped further into contraction during October, according to the BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI), with segments "enduring significant pain". Wellington and Canterbury are still expanding, but Otago (Queenstown) and Auckland especially are in a sour place. So far, employers are not shedding jobs however. Larger firms (100+ employees) are doing ok, but small ones are in dire positions.

UNIFIED
Credit Union Baywide has changed its name to Unity Credit Union, trading as Unity. This means that NZCU Baywide, NZCU South, NZCU Central and Aotearoa Credit Union will all now trade under the Unity brand.

VANISHED
There was a net migration gain of just under +800 in the 12 months to September this year, down from gain of +65,000 in year to September 2020. Migration turned negative in May 2013 after being negative for 30 months, and perhaps we are heading back to negative territory again.

CHEAP UNSECURED FUNDING
Vector (VCT, #33) has now launched its $300 mln unsecured, unsubordinated fixed rate 6 year bond offer. It will be priced at the 6 year swap rate plus a margin of between 0.95 – 1.10%. The net proceeds of the offer of Bonds will be used to refinance existing debt and for general corporate purposes.

RAMPING UP PPAs
NZ Green Investment Finance (NZGIF) says it is financing of up to $40 mln for commercial-scale solar installations, in partnership with solar energy services provider solarZero (previously Solar City). Building on an earlier $10 mln facility for financing residential solar, NZGIF will now also provide a senior debt facility to solarZero to finance Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) for solar installations on commercial buildings. The investment includes a $10 mln facility to finance solar installations and up to $30 mln in additional funds held in reserve to scale up the facility, enabling the deployment of up to 40MW of solar generation over time. NZGIF calls itself "New Zealand’s green investment bank" but it isn't a bank and the RBNZ appears not to mind it using that descriptor.

A TOUGH WEEK FOR SOME
Last week, the capitalisation of the NZX50 fell -1.3% over the week, taking it down to $131.4 bln. That leaves it only +1.1% higher than a year ago. The big loser last week was Pushpay (PPH, #24) which fell an eye-watering -22% and it fell two spots in the ranking as a result. A2 Milk (ATM, #11) fell a rather chunky -6.7% too. Going the other way, Heartland Group (HGH, #26) rose +3.7%.

LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In Australia Delta cases in Victoria have slipped to 860 cases reported there today, and a noticeable easing. There are now 17,518 active cases in the state (an increase) and there were another 5 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 165 new community cases reported today, another drop, with 2,906 active locally acquired cases (an increases), and they had another death yesterday. Queensland is reporting zero new cases. The ACT has 10 new cases. Overall in Australia, just over 81% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 8% have now had one shot so far. In contrast, there was one new case in New Zealand at the border, and 173 new community cases and more that for NSW today. Now 90.2% of Kiwis nationally aged 12+ have had at least one vaccination, and the Australian rate is now also at 89.3% of all also aged 12+.

GOLD SOFT
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1859/oz and down another -US$6 from where we opened this morning.

EQUITIES GENERALLY FIRMER
The NZX50 has started the week up +0.4 in late trade today. The ASX200 has started up +0.4% too in early afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.5%, Hong Kong has opened flat, and Shanghai has opened down -0.2%. The S&P500 futures index is currently up +1.1%.

SWAP & BONDS RATES LOWER
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are probably lower. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 0.85%.The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is now at 1.77% and down -3 bps. The China Govt 10yr is now at 2.95% and unchanged. The New Zealand Govt 10 year rate is now at 2.60% and also down -3 bps and now well below the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.66% (+2 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.55% and down -2 bps.

NZ DOLLAR UNCHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is now at 70.5 USc and marginally firmer than this morning. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 96 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 61.5 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now back down to 74.6 and the same as where we started this morning.

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BITCOIN RANGEBOUND
The bitcoin price is now at US$65,926, up +3.5% from this morning but almost exactly the same as this time Friday.. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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55 Comments

by GV 27 | 15th Nov 21, 4:10pm 1636945806

So Waikato moves straight to L2, while Auckland grapples with Level 3, Step 2, sub-section 5 paragraph i) or whatever shit we're on now.

Meanwhile, the announcement about the Auckland border date isn't happening until Wednesday.

by HouseMouse | 15th Nov 21, 5:21pm 1636950068

The government HATES Auckland. At the very least, they don't understand us at all. Trust me, I've worked in government on contract in Auckland and had to deal with the army of bureaucrats in the capital.

And Ardern is NOT an Aucklander - she's hardly spent any of her 40 odd years on this earth living here.

And her hubby is a country bumpkin from East Cape.

by frazz | 15th Nov 21, 4:16pm 1636946166

Windy in Wellington today but warm

by HouseMouse | 15th Nov 21, 5:21pm 1636950108

Full of hot air, as usual.

by CWBW | 15th Nov 21, 4:17pm 1636946251

Looks like the market is predicting a stagflation through the NZ10 yield curve.

by Audaxes | 15th Nov 21, 6:24pm 1636953895

Hmmmm...The RBNZ claims the 20/09/30 inflation linked bond trades at 0.5% - more like potential stagnation.

Irving Fisher was among the first to seriously scrutinize interest rates as being related to money and economy. He deconstructed them into discrete pieces; a single rate contains a real interest rate plus inflation expectations (on top of which modern statisticians have added “term premiums”). The real rate is independent of anything but perceived conditions in the real economy – and is therefore the absolutely most crucial component (the flat curves of today demonstrating this with perfect clarity).

In this view, the answer is pretty simple – no need to appeal to a rotten labor force of drug addicts and Baby Boomers.

Thus, if the real rate is close to zero, it must be that, under this hypothesis, expected inflation is close to zero as well. The solution to low inflation in this context is to increase the nominal interest rate.

If the real rate is close to zero, pace Keynes, the economy must be awful. Therefore, the solution is to make the economy not awful – via inflationary policies. I know what you are thinking, the St. Louis Fed of all outfits bringing this up ten years after the crisis, then what the hell was QE? Link

by Audaxes | 15th Nov 21, 4:22pm 1636946521

Massive losses, for nothing, just got bigger.

Crown Indemnity for Large Scale Asset Purchase Programme - $5.668 billion

by Jonny.Foe | 15th Nov 21, 5:25pm 1636950355

Michael has a tendency to focus on the one row in the balance sheet that makes his point, which is always 'hopeless Govt interfering with our lives, RBNZ clueless since I left etc'

by chebbo | 15th Nov 21, 4:25pm 1636946759

Boosters announced for over 18s today.

Why aren't we staggering, and prioritising high-risk and high-exposure individuals, as per the initial rollout, rather than just "encouraging" those groups? There is no way this can be about public health any more.

by VTHO | 15th Nov 21, 4:32pm 1636947174

Announcing a booster shot and I only got my second dose 1 month ago. Whatever your belief on vaccines, how can that not sound like a joke? Are we going to be in 2023 and required to get our 5th booster shot? I understand the science and am happy to be vaccinated but am honestly unsure about how I feel sticking this vaccine into my body multiple times in a short (as far as vaccines go) timeframe with each does getting less effective. Surely the line needs to be drawn somewhere where you say there is so little benefit it getting anymore booster shots, I'm not going to bother.

by Rob Reid | 15th Nov 21, 4:46pm 1636947968

I think the line for me will be when I start to get COVID anyway. Might be some additional benefit to a booster as well as getting sick and getting over it, but that would not be enough to convince me unless govt and employer imposed vaccine requirements backed me into a corner.

by nigelh | 15th Nov 21, 4:48pm 1636948111

This going to be tricky. Based on flu jab its once a year and the flu is updated every year for the last known variant. For covid19 who knows. Don't think enough known about the next variant right now so in 6 months more known. Whatever it turns out for the general population my at risk profile >70<80 with some cardio vascular co-morbidity I'll take the 6 month one around end Jan22

by dumbthoughts | 15th Nov 21, 4:52pm 1636948366

Do you think that they will skip the 13th booster shot as it is an unlucky number?

by southmotian | 15th Nov 21, 4:58pm 1636948697

I'm guessing there was a complete lack of info on how boosters effect the vaccine certificates, when/if your certificate will expire without a booster etc?

by dumbthoughts | 15th Nov 21, 5:02pm 1636948924

Either:

a) They haven't thought that far ahead

b) They have thought that far ahead, and don't want to say because the answer will put people off (i.e. you are on the booster treadmill forever and ever amen, and the goalposts of what defines "fully vaxxed" will be shifted out of the stadium)

I'm taking all bets.

by Noncents | 15th Nov 21, 5:06pm 1636949191

We can't shift the definition of fully vaxxed, because we never had one in the first place.

by Carlos67 | 15th Nov 21, 7:52pm 1636959153

Not correct. Fully vaxxed is 2 shots but what the government is not telling you that the booster will also be mandated. I'm amazed at how clueless Kiwis are really and how they cannot see past next week. This government do everything by stealth, very clever really, they never announce any long term plans in fact they really have no plans. Get everyone stoked up on fear and expect them to get a booster shot every 6 months for the rest of their lives. What did you guys think it would be 2 shots and that's the end of it ? What do you think the initial vax uptake would have been if you knew in advance you would be pumping that shit in your arm every 6 months ?

by alexil | 15th Nov 21, 8:27pm 1636961255

It's worse than be drug addicted. At least drug addicted get high, and they will get just blood clots or face paralysis.

by jerry_NZ | 16th Nov 21, 1:55am 1636980910

Finally someone sees what is happening!

by southmotian | 15th Nov 21, 6:16pm 1636953367

That's a tough bet to pick a side on

by dumbthoughts | 16th Nov 21, 6:30am 1636997449

My money is on option B.

If the government was honest (which - like all governments - they are fundamentally incapable of being) they would come out and say "by the time winter 2022 rolls around, you'll have to get your booster or else you'll be treated as unvaccinated". Do remember that this is the same government that declared last year that nobody would face any consequence for choosing not to be vaccinated in the first place ... does anyone think for a nanosecond they meant that?

However, being up-front about the boosters would put a whole load of people off right now (especially younger people who are more ambivalent to the vaccine but have bought into the 'two shots for summer' marketing line).

By this stage the precedent will have been set via mandates; so if you don't go back for your booster you'll inevitably risk losing your job, or being excluded from events, hospitality venues, travel etc.

Presumably the triple-vaxxed will start demanding they are kept safe from the filthy double-vaxxed, and so on.

Overseas, the narrative on boosters is shifting fast. The same thing will happen there. At the moment Covid is a 'pandemic of the unvaccinated' and soon it will become a 'pandemic of the under-vaccinated'.

This headline from Bloomberg's Twitter sums it up: "It may turn out that the term "booster" is a bit of a misnomer, and that the correct number of shots for maximum efficacy isn’t yet known" https://twitter.com/business/status/1459872728752738313 

Before anyone says "big deal, we get annual flu shots" - tell me the last time a whole segment of the workforce was turfed out for not taking their flu shot? Have you ever been asked to show your proof of flu shot to board a domestic flight, or to go out for a beer?

by Noncents | 15th Nov 21, 5:02pm 1636948930

You got it.

PM obivously doesn't know, and not one single journalist even remotely thought to ask anything along those lines.

by bender | 15th Nov 21, 5:07pm 1636949240

Said +/- booster will not effect the cert.

by Galloleous | 15th Nov 21, 11:06pm 1636970817

2 months later......

Are people so brain dead they can not see where all this shit is heading!?!?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09maaUaRT4M

by Nifty1 | 15th Nov 21, 6:41pm 1636954916

I got pretty ill after the second vaccine with reactionary heart issues, no way I'm getting a booster - especially made by Pfizer....

by the Joneses | 15th Nov 21, 7:15pm 1636956940

Maybe they simply have plenty of vaccines, so don't have to ration them anymore?

by chebbo | 15th Nov 21, 8:52pm 1636962754

Perhaps, but it still makes sense to prioritise the most vulnerable, just like we did at the start of the pandemic, and do with every other public healthcare strategy. There is no reason for an 18yo to be getting a shot unless they are in a high risk group.

by alexil | 15th Nov 21, 9:06pm 1636963612

Maybe some element of corruption is here. It's all about money and profit. Not about saving lifes.

by jo147 | 15th Nov 21, 9:35pm 1636965339

Hi Chebbo

I think you've missed a step.

Booster eligibility kicks in 6 months after your 2nd dose. So healthy 18 year old only became eligible for 1st vaccine from Sept 21. Will be up for booster starting early april 22.

There are 450,000 people eligible from 1st December to Xmas. Border and Healthcare workers and elderly group 3. Everyone who got a shot from February to early June. When only vulnerable people were eligible.

Waitemata had 3 staff on covid ward got infected (mildly) in last 4 weeks despite PPE because they were vaccinated in Feb/March.

The 6 months after 2nd dose means the same prioritization as inital roll out will apply.

We now have capacity to do a huge number of doses per day and have supply so less need to ration as well. 2 million doses available last time I looked.

by alexil | 15th Nov 21, 4:39pm 1636947597

What will you do when vaxx is not safe and not effective? Right, you do booster shots! If it did not work 2 times, maybe 3rd one is lucky!

by alexil | 15th Nov 21, 4:53pm 1636948436

when people were not vaccinated we had ~100 per day. now we have 70% fully jabbed and 200 per day. I'm scarred what we will have on 90%! get a list of countries with lowest vaccination and how many cases do they have per capita. and compare with vaccinated countries.

by northman46 | 15th Nov 21, 5:27pm 1636950444

Look at you, dangling your line in the water with some Covid bait on the hook.

Nice try!

by Noncents | 15th Nov 21, 4:54pm 1636948461

How are we getting more cases than NSW?

We have a higher vaccination rate, lower population and Auckland is still in a strict lockdown?

NSW numbers smell a bit fishy.

by alexil | 15th Nov 21, 5:03pm 1636948995

don't be heretic! of course because we did not reach 90%! go and get a jab. if you have already then booster shot for you.

by Albert2020 | 15th Nov 21, 5:59pm 1636952390

Because they reached their peak several weeks ago and have significantly more acquired immunity

by JohnfromtheTron | 15th Nov 21, 5:09pm 1636949379

Does the booster = 6G???

Sorry...just a little bit happy in The Tron today. Aroha to everyone in Auckland.

by alexil | 15th Nov 21, 5:14pm 1636949691

some people reported personality change after jab. just google it - personality change after vaxx.

some freaking experiment on people

by the Joneses | 15th Nov 21, 7:28pm 1636957702

The personality change in people who become anti-vax can be very profound.

by alexil | 15th Nov 21, 8:35pm 1636961709

https://principia-scientific.com/pro-jab-professors-quick-death-after-c…

It's what happens with pro-vaccine

by alexil | 15th Nov 21, 8:36pm 1636961795

And another one

https://vaccineimpact.com/2021/cardiologist-medical-doctor-who-wanted-t…

by the Joneses | 15th Nov 21, 11:35pm 1636972531

Yes, you are right, this is exactly the sort of thing they do.. Trawl the news for stories of successful people who die relatively young and blame their death on the vaccine without offering any proof that they were vaccinated recently, or that vaccination was likely the cause of death. And then point to this (worse than anecdotal) evidence as being more important information than the vast amount of official worldwide medical statistics and studies for people to consider when getting vaccinated.

by alexil | 16th Nov 21, 9:23am 1637007810

You can do it. Make a booster and ask someone to make report if you will die.

I think the chance to die is about 0.05% and get face paralisys is 1/35000.

Chance to get headache about 70%.

How many boosters will you need to have some nasty surprise?

You may say that chances are low, but it is not low if this 0.05% is you.

Most people who died from Covid had something else like diabetes and so on. But from vaccine can die almost anyone. Even without underline conditions.

If you will not die, you still can be disabled. And no one will go to jail for it, just nothing. Pfizer has no responsobility for you. and if it is ACC you have to prove that it is from vaccine, they will deny it.

In USA was paid 0 (zero) compensations for Covid death and injuries(was created special fund for it). Knowing this, will you do it?

by jerry_NZ | 15th Nov 21, 5:44pm 1636951470

So,

Austria is doing lockdown for unvaccinated. They say it is to protected unvaccinated .... yeah right.

Our fantastic PM is saying now that we need to get booster shots as what supposed to work - is not really working so, boosters are the best way to full protection (i thought you have full protection after 2nd shot...).

Now people after 2nd dose have to get their booster so they can be protected. Gov says It is even more important now as vaccinated people are asymptomatic. And now they say confirm that actually you can still get a virus and you can transmit it.... LIES, LIES and more LIES.

Spoken with the friend from South Africa. Life is pretty much back to normal. Vaccination rate there 20%, number of cases 300 / per day. Population 60m. That means that we have 10x more cases per million with 4x higher vaccination rate.

YOU WILL NOT HEAR THIS IN THE NEWS! but check the stats on the internet.

And where are those thousands people that supposed to get covid in various demonstrations across NZ few weeks back?

You draw conclusions from that.

I'm sick and tire of propaganda from our goverment.

WAKE UP NZ BEFORE IT WILL BE TOO LATE!

by Albert2020 | 15th Nov 21, 6:02pm 1636952576

This is a caps free zone my friend. Please rant somewhere else.

by Albert2020 | 15th Nov 21, 5:56pm 1636952181

I thought the Aussies were only vaccinating from 16 and above?

by jo147 | 15th Nov 21, 9:38pm 1636965506

They are focused on counting 16+ because they started with Astra zeneca and haven't updated when added Modera and pfizer. They are vaccinating 12+

Great summary site if australia is if interest

https://covidlive.com.au/

by Firstclass | 15th Nov 21, 6:28pm 1636954085

Number 27 today in the world.

69% of the population fully vaccinated as per this source

by northman46 | 15th Nov 21, 7:10pm 1636956616

nice

by printer8 | 15th Nov 21, 7:35pm 1636958159

Seeing you raise the issue . . . NZ 69.2% fully vaccinated is old data. Currently 81.1% would put us 6th.

by HouseMouse | 15th Nov 21, 7:37pm 1636958228

And one of the most locked down....

by printer8 | 15th Nov 21, 8:06pm 1636959990

Melbourne nearly nine months (262 days) and in many aspects a lot more restrictive.

by HouseMouse | 15th Nov 21, 8:19pm 1636960753

My point is how still restricted we are NOW even with high vax rates.

by jo147 | 15th Nov 21, 9:42pm 1636965758

Not comparing apples with apples

It's 81% of eligible population (over 12 yrs)

We are 68% of total population double dosed today. These sites only use total population as different countries vaccinating different age groups. So we are doing well at 27th but not 6th yet.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-no…

by Firstclass | 16th Nov 21, 5:10pm 1637035808

@printer8

I think you are misreading that data.

Percent of total population, that data is current.

by MortgageBelt | 15th Nov 21, 7:51pm 1636959102

The regions outside of Auckland about to lose their current semi-economic freedom shortly as they are marched from Level 2 (old system) to the red/orange Lights system. No one can buy or sell except that they show the digital certificate.

.

Also: Roll up for your booster shot (3rd) in January, 4th booster in July, etc etc to maintain your full citizenship.

.

Will there be any unvaccinated special living dormitories?

Meanwhile Tairawhiti & Northland back into lockdown or border restrictions.

And so it goes on. And quietly the central govt has taken over control of all your regions local Polytechnics, Water assets, Health Boards, etc