Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
In case you missed it yesterday, the Cooperative Bank reduced most of their home loan rates, settling back to a more competitive market position.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank raised two key TD rates. Rabobank increased rates across the board, mostly up by +20 bps and reclaiming industry leading levels for most terms.
MORE CHOICE PRESSURES HOUSING MARKETS
Realestate.co.nz says there are more homes on the market, with prices flattening at the start of 2022. Homes are taking longer to sell pushing up the stock of homes on the block, now up to 12 weeks from eight weeks a few months ago (mid-2021). Auckland is up to 16 weeks of inventory from 9 weeks in mid 2021.
AN OUTSIDER'S HOUSING POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
The OECD weighed in to our housing policy debates today, recommending a retargeting of how the Government develops and encourages the overall housing market - for better outcomes.
BIG PAYOUT COMING
ANZ has raised its 2021/2022 farm gate dairy price payout forecast to $9.30/kgMS which is now the highest of any analyst. (See comparisons here. Bottom of page.) Fonterra's last indication for 2021/22 is $8.90-$9.50 with a $9.20 midpoint. So ANZ's revision isn't especially adventurous. ANZ have also raised their next season 2022/23 forecast to $8.40/kg/MS.
UGLY TRADE DEFICIT
In December, 2021 the monthly trade balance was a deficit of -$477 mln. In December 2020 there was a surplus of +$75 mln and for December 2019 it was a surplus of $380 mln. For the 2021 year, the -$6.8 bln deficit is a record. Exports were up +13% to $6.1 bln in the month, but imports were up +23% to $6.7 bln. We are selling much more dairy product, meat, machinery, and aluminium. But we are importing very much more cars, machinery, fertiliser and electrical equipment.
AN UPDATE ON OUR FOUR LARGEST TRADING PARTNERS
For the 2021 year to December, we ran a +$3.4 bln surplus with China (but down from +$3.8 bln the previous year). We ran a -$93 mln deficit with Australia, a huge retreat from the +$1.2 bln surplus in 2020. We ran a +$717 mln surplus with the US, also a reversal of the +$1.2 bln surplus in 2020. And with Japan our +$329 mln surplus in 2020 turned into a -$895 mln deficit. We've gone hog-wild on buying unproductive new cars, but also much more productive machinery.
AN UGLY TRACK
Last week's NZX50 market was a shocker, with the capitalisation falling more than -4% overall. Largest falls were by Serko, Vista and Synlait which fell -10.3%, -9.9%, and -9.5% respectively. The number one stock Fisher and Paykel Healthcare continues to bleed falling another -4.6% last week alone. Only four of the 50 NZX50 index members rose. This tiny unusual set included Napier Port (up +2.8%), Restaurant Brands, EBOS (the key RAT supplier), and A2 Milk. One sector we have been following closely recently is the rest home / retirement home sector and that was dumped a painful -8.5% last week alone to be down -23% over the past year with about half of that value lost in just the past month. Ryman is taking the hardest hit. It is no longer a path to investment riches.
A SOFT END TO 2021
In Australia, retail sales dropped -4.4% month-on-month in December as Omicron variant kept consumers from spending on goods and services, posting its biggest monthly fall since April 2020. The latest reading was also the first decline in monthly retail activity in four months, reversing sharply from a +7.3% rise in November. The data fits with reports of falling consumer confidence and credit card spending in December. This December 2021 level is however +4.8% higher than December 2020 - before any inflation adjustment. All of 2021 is +5.3% higher than all of 2020, and +12% higher than all of 2019.
THE RBA UPDATE
Update: The Reserve Bank of Australia moved to end its bond purchase program, as expected. But the rest of their position remains dovish. They did the minimum markets expected. They pushed back against the expectation that official interest rates would rise any time soon. More here. The Aussie dollar fell on the news and took the NZD with it, although we strengthened on the cross rate.
LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In NSW, there were 12,818 new community cases reported yesterday, similar the prior day, now with 129,942 active locally-acquired cases, and 30 daily deaths. There are now 2,779 in hospital there, off their high. In Victoria they reported 11,311 more new infections yesterday. There are now 72,710 active cases in that state - and there were 34 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 7,588 new cases and 10 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1505 yesterday with 3 more deaths. The ACT has 522 new cases, and Tasmania 699 new cases. Overall in Australia, about 34,439 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 79 cases stopped at the border, plus 126 new cases reported in the community.
GOLD UP
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1797 and up +US$8 from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES RISE
The NZX50 is up +0.5% in late trade and a second consecutive daily rise. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in early afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened up almost +1.0%. Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed for Chinese New Year. The S&P500 ended its Wall Street session today up +1.9% after being up all day, and ended with a flourish.
SWAPS FIRM
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They likely rose. The 90 day bank bill rate is up a very sharp +5 bps at 1.15%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is still at 1.92%. The China Govt 10yr is still at 2.72%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.61% (up +3 bps from this time yesterday) and back above the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.59% (down -1 bp). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.78% and back down -2 bps from this time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDS LOW
The Kiwi dollar is up from this time yesterday at 65.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -½c at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 58.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now still at 70.6.
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BITCOIN FIRM
Bitcoin has risen today and is now at US$38,330 which is up +4.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%.
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70 Comments
Yes, almost 3% for a 2-yeat term is not too bad, as a start.
Just note that interest rates have still some significant room to go up, but this is still a decent start to the year.
All other banks will match and improve on such offers in the near future, given how current swaps are behaving.
When will NZ open it's borders?
Looks like the Taliban is more benevolent on our Kiwi girl than our government.
And the rest of the world is shocked at our cruelty and hypocrisy.
I think Charlotte might be one of the few who even wanted to get into Afghanistan - in itself a cry for attention. I am sure the Taliban have no problems keeping thousands out.
Our problem lies in the very poor state of our hospitals - they simply do not have the capacity to assess at speed those arriving at their front doors. My family has experienced this and it is frightening to sit more than 6 hours with a family member deterioriating and starting to give up before your eyes.
ER specialists are saying people are waiting many hours for assessment - even with serious conditions, such as a stroke. We have not seen how bad it will get when Omicon inevitably tips a proportion into the need for hospital treatment.
So I think the Government are being wise to keep a lid on the number of entrants to the country meantime, and I feel they are trying to allocate priority on need. It is a balancing act, as so many here are crying out for entertainment at the same time - hence some dubious decisions on a few who have arrived - such as the UK DJ.
Minister Little and to a slightly lesser extent, Deputy Prime Minister Robertson have repeatedly assured all of us, that the hospital system is fine, it has coped so far and will continue to do so. Should we not all take their word for that? Or might one suspect that they might have gone on with the proviso that the border would need to remained closed & MIQ operative. The truth of the matter is now dawning fairly speedily isn’t it.
I believe she is taking legal action for herself and other people in the same situation. Seems like she is using her profile to help others too which is probably a better outcome than saying nothing and letting others in the same position with no profile to suffer too.
Personally I am sick of this girl bleating about herself.
The Minister has said she did not do her application correctly with regards to date of travel and also that the consulate has twice offered to help her to do it properly. Perhaps if she stops talking to media and self-publicising for long enough to listen and do the application correctly, she might be home in good time.
I am sick of people running to an MP or other contact to try to circumvent for themselves the system that all NZers out of the country are using to get home. She has no more rights than anyone else - despite being a media person.
We are already up to over 100 confirmed cases per day - meaning there are probably 300-1000 cases a day in the community.
A handful of extra cases a day we would get from allowing people into the country with only testing ( or self-isolation .. ) but without an MIQ stay is pretty much nothing in comparison.
MIQ was an ugly , necessary thing at the outset of the pandemic ; it is an ugly , unnecessary thing now.
You are not alone there TK. I too gave her the benefit of the doubt, but now I doubt that there was much benefit in doing that. I even went on record here early on, several times, opining that she was of some sincerity and politics wasn’t exactly an easy fit for her. Wrong on both counts, regret to say.
The next question then is why has every potential high court action resulted in an MIQ vacancy being found prior to any hearing getting underway. There are considerably more than a few examples. That indicates rather strongly, that the government is fully aware that their MIQ enforcement is illegal and they do not want the judiciary confirming that, creating a precedent. This example here mimics what has preceded. Every New Zealander has every right to protest as loudly and strongly as they can, actions by their government that they perceive as being illegal, let alone unfair and immoral.
Generous of you to think all out of the country should be allowed back in at once. I do hope you and your family do not share our experience of finding no capacity at hospital to have even an initial assessment, despite what turned out to be a life threatening and very urgent problem after a 6 hour wait in Emergency.
The border is currently a balancing act and it would be catastrophic if all who wanted to were allowed to return, all at once, right now, just as Omnicron is taking off. I think you might find much of it is economic and wanting taxpayer assistance - which we will all also pay for, and which should be going into the hospitals' resourcing.
However, I do agree the government should not have allowed entertainers in for the meantime.
You are completely out of context and extend your viewpoint well beyond my point, and off the mark. And that is, regardless of any one particular issue, that the government is bound by our law, and not above it. If, in order to satisfy your viewpoint, you condone the government breaking the law as I have reasoned, then you are ascribing to a mindset that is opposite to that, and heading in the direction of a dictatorship.
Agreed Foxglove. At a very minimum under MIQ NZ residents should have been banned from holidaying abroad, those valuable slots should have gone to Kiwi's trying to get home to see elderly and sick loved ones rather than johnny bogan having a Fiji Bitter on Castaway Island,
This is the argument we hear all the time to keep NZ, PR out of NZ "We can't get our people back because we will overload the hospitals and kill many people". However it should be ''how can we get them back!" There are ways to keep track of suitable candidates for home isolation (the technology to monitor movement has been around for a while) or even put able bodied people in paddocks with tents. Portable toilets that could be sterilized after use. Portable container fitted to be livable for a while and these could be used for emergency accommodation at a later date. These things would free up MIQ for the vulnerable. The nonsense that we would be flocking to supermarkets is pure fear mongering (a system in place to delivery food, would stop anyone needing to). PCR tests, Rat tests, Art tests, tracing app's are what is being in the rest of the world but no the solution for NZ is a lottery and the attitude we outside a plague carriers. I hope you don't have experience of having to survive without any protection, no rights, no jobs, overstaying, watching your loved ones get sick or die and not being able to see them, separated from loved ones for months/years, loss of pensions, etc.
The majority of us who have been abandoned by our country are responsible and would do our isolation at homes where we could. A big thankyou to the posters that haven't forgot or condemned us for being out of the country and wanting to return back to our country.
What you are implying is that Kiwis in the country is more Kiwi than outside the country.
So which emergency department shall our Kiwi girl go to in Afghanistan?
The whole shambles is about popularity and vote count- the only people that matters is those in the country that can vote.
This brings us to the next question, what's the point of being a Kiwi and loving your country when the government treats you as a ticket booth to power and nothing more.
Although the Minister has been quoted as saying that consular assistance was twice offered, the fact is that New Zealand currently has no diplomatic presence in Afghanistan, either embassy or consulate. The MFAT website is explicit in this regard. MFAT is also explicit about its lack of ability to assist people in Afghanistan.
KeithW
The system is broken. It's a lottery where you cannot even buy a ticket at the moment ... so how can you win?
I don't blame her for trying to use her influence/profile to get the result she wants. We'd all be doing the same in her position (I'll put my hand up at least and admit I would). Sometimes you've got to fight dirty to win.
Or - as the saying goes - "don't hate the player, hate the game" ... especially when the game is rigged.
You are totally correct that she has no more rights than anyone else. But she does have a right to return to New Zealand. As I've said before, MIQ made sense in the early days - up until the vaccine program rolled out - but it is clearly disproportionate now.
If the government were so confident in their legal position on this, they wouldn't roll over for everyone who screams and shouts enough in the media or who mounts a legal challenge (this is probably why they have de facto "outsourced" the problem to the aviation sector, and why you will get an MIQ spot at the border if you can coax your way onto a plane)
The minster might have stuffed this one up. The process is flawed and they have no clue and quite possibly don’t actually care. If it is like any of the other processes or rules that have been created as part of this then it isn’t surprising that people aren’t applying ‘correctly’. I know of a case where the MoH was breaking the lockdown rules and only stopped when a client queried it.
That's the problem with being in the village for all their lives.
Villagers have a world view according to what the tribal chief's propagandist publishes.
Your stereotype of Afghanistan is appalling. Have you seen the photo of the Afghan girl by Steve McCurry? Has Steve been stoned recently?
December Roy Morgan Poll results were released, which the NZ media was not interested in reporting: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8889-nz-national-voting-intention-de…
The 'media' need Labour to keep giving them money so stave off mass-salary-reductions, layoffs and protentional bankruptcies.
I observed today while watching a NewsTalkZB live stream, lots of questions being asked about housing and inflation.. perhaps the-penny-has-dropped.. they're starting to realizing their rental accommodations are getting more expensive and tenure less secure. They're starting to realize like the Rose family they're up "Shitt's Creek".
Also, the word accommodations accommodates a lot of letters.
Like trying to find a story about the $5.7 billion LSAP losses. A paltry $55 million to sweep that baby under the carpet.
$5.7bn loss on LSAP offset by a $25bn gain on other equities and investments (caused in part by the LSAP).
I would say that is a shrewd investment strategy story, no? Imagine if any other investor threw $5.7 billion at the market to create a $25 billion rise in the value of their other investments...
$5.7bn loss on LSAP offset by a $25bn gain on other equities and investments (caused in part by the LSAP)
Got any documented evidence and who are the tax paying recipients of these gains? And while you are at it maybe you can state which of us gained absolutely nothing.
This outfits polls can often be a bit maverickish and agree the result for ACT looks a bit out of step. But looking at the rise of the right and still with say 20 months to go to the next election, Labour now looks like being on the slippery slope. Usually when a party in power begins to slide it is very difficult to halt it, let alone claw back uphill. This will be alarming for the Greens as their expectations of being shoe horned into cabinet next time, is now hardly a sure thing. Once things slide, infighting and blame games begin as the team starts to think about their own problems first as individuals. This could see the same sort of disintegration that occurred in the last terms of the Lange & Shipley administrations alike.
Great to see the RBA holding their rates - it really is time that we threw this tired orthodoxy out of the window. Punishing borrowers and trying to get more people on the dole in the belief that this will address off-shore, supply-side inflation is truly dumb.
Worth having a look at Hungary who are pushing up their rates to try and suppress inflation... they seem to be making it worse!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-25/hungary-raises-rates…
I hear what you're saying,. but more money printing will devalue the NZ Dollar further, therefore increasing the cost of ALL the goods you mentioned above.
If the money printing stops people will have to compete for NZ Dollars, aka agreeing to pay higher interest rates.. especially if you're deemed a risky bet.
Our cash rate is significantly higher than other countries, has been raised a couple of times and several more rises have been signalled - and yet our currency is weakening.
Lifting the OCR might be a factor in helping to limit the NZD falling, but I suspect it won't make a huge difference.
When the fed starts to make and signal rate rises, capital rushes back into dollarised financial assets and the US dollar strengthens. NZ is like a toddler on a trampoline with a big fat bouncing uncle Sam.
So let's just track the US rate + 200 puts for the cash rate and adjust minimum mortgage rates using a mortgage levy? Pretending that domestic policy controls NZD exchange rates with the USD is dumb.
And just when things are starting to get on an even keel National come out with their starve the poor elderly by putting up the super age, because some overseas nutters say that it is unaffordable
Super has long been said to be affordable as it is - but with tightening of migrant eligibility - but the same old people love to jump out of the woodwork to shout it down.
The people who shout loudest of course are the people who gave never experienced 65, or hospital waiting lists.
National, it seems also want to spend less - which is code for starve the health system AGAIN and have people die earlier.
Woke Labour have at least learned from NZ First and have said they have no plans to increase the eligibility age of super - but do of course subscribe to starving the Health system
New Zealand the way you like it?
Sounds like a good thing, but only due to my value base. I'm sure others will disagree.
The finance model applied to enable people to buy cars they can't afford has always made me quite uncomfortable. I realised recently they are doing it in jewellery too. Seems wrong. Noone "needs" jewellery. And the fees and interest rates that accompany these arrangements are a bit disturbing.
Like I have said before, some people need protection from themselves. The assumption that everyone is financially literate and can cope with their spending habits is a big mistake and one that's finally been rectified. All that remains now is to find out if it was too little too late. Hopefully not, house prices will plateau and not crash.
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