Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes have been reported today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Xceda Finance (ex-Asset Finance) raised all their TD rates, some with big rises, like their 9 month TD up +70 bps to 3.65% and their 18 month up +55 bps to 4.50%
GIANT NEW JOB INSURANCE SCHEME COMING
The Government is proposing a giant new income insurance scheme, similar to the existing ACC scheme. It will cover job losses due to redundancy and sickness/disability - at a cost to both employees and employers.
PASSED IN
The sales rate at Barfoot & Thompson's Auckland auctions dropped to 38% in the last week of January even though the numbers being offered at auction were up strongly.
UNEVEN START FOR 2022 RETAIL
Overall consumer spending in January through retail stores in Worldline’s payments network was up on the same time last year but dipped in the final week of the month due to Covid influences. Core retail sold $3.06 bln in the month (excluding Hospitality), a lift of +7.1% on the same month last year and up +12.8% from January 2020. But hospo was down -5.2% on 2021 and -8.7% on 2020.
VERY FULL EMPLOYMENT
Fewer people were added to our paid labour force in the December quarter than analysts were expecting. On a seasonally adjusted basis it rose by just +3000 people from September, although more than 101,000 more people were employed in December 2021 than December 2020. +30,600 more employees were added to public administration and healthcare in the year. Despite that, in the December 2021 quarter less hours were worked overall than in the December 2020 quarter. Labour productivity turned lower. But these are relatively minor quibbles. The jobless rate slipped from 3.4% to a record low 3.2%. The employment rate went up to 69.1%, the participation rate did too, to 71.4%. And our jobless rate is the fifth best in the OECD, while our employment rate is fourth best. More here.
VERY UNPRODUCTIVE EMPLOYMENT
The Quarterly Employment Survey has shown that gross earnings paid to all employees exceeded $2.5 bln in the quarter for the first time ever, a rise of almost +11% from the same quarter in 2020. But average hourly earnings rose 'only' +3.8% year-on-year, more for the private sector (+4.1%), and less for the public sector (+3.1%). Public sector pay is higher by +28% (public sector pay averages $1684/week on an FTE basis, whereas private sector pay averages $1318/week on the same basis), but these public employees are doing less and less overtime, while private sector employees are doing more. So, overall paid earnings are up +11% but overall hours worked decreased. This doing-less-for-more trend should worry public policy makers.
FOREIGN BUYERS SCARCE AGAIN
Stats NZ reported today that there were 41,460 home transfers in the December quarter, and of those 780 (or 1.9%) were to buyers who stated an overseas tax residency, including Australians (285 transfers), Americans (114 transfers), Brits (81) and Chinese (60). They point out that tax residency is not the same as nationality. For example, an overseas tax resident may be a NZ citizen living overseas. Alternatively, a NZ tax resident could be an overseas citizen who lives in New Zealand, or a company with overseas owners. On this basis, the tiny numbers recorded in Q3-2021 went down in Q4. Most of this activity occurred in Central Auckland, Christchurch, and Queenstown.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS
The overnight dairy auction was a good one, the second one in a row, and up +4.1% this time in USD terms (+6.4% in NZD terms). That is on top of the +4.6% rise two weeks ago. From this time last year, these prices are up +23%. Also see this.
EXHUBERANT
Analysts at both Westpac and ASB each raised their 2021/2022 milk price payout estimates, in the case of these two to $9.50/kg/MS and $9.25 respectively. Westpac didn't change its 2022/23 season estimate of $7.50 but ASB chimed in with an $8.80 forecast for the next season. They follow ANZ and NZX recently. Only BNZ and Rabobank are yet to update their estimates. Full details of all analysts estimates are here.
LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In NSW, there were 11,807 new community cases reported yesterday, similar the prior day, now with 119,265 active locally-acquired cases, and 27 daily deaths. There are now 2,623 in hospital there, off their high. In Victoria they reported 14,553 more new infections yesterday. There are now 73,886 active cases in that state - and there were 25 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 9,630 new cases and 16 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1266 yesterday. The ACT has 549 new cases, and Tasmania 699 new cases. There have been 1033 cases in the Northern Territory, a big jump. Overall in Australia, about 38,000 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 54 cases stopped at the border, plus 142 new cases reported in the community.
GOLD UP
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1801 and up +US$4 from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES RISE AGAIN
In New York, the S&P500 closed up +0.7% after a late rise. Tokyo has opened up another strong +1.2% and recall that Hong Kong and Shanghai are both closed for Chinese New Year. The ASX200 is up an even stronger +1.4% in early afternoon trade, which is being matched today the NZX50 which is also up +1.4% in late trade.
SWAPS HOLD
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely unchanged. The 90 day bank bill rate is up another +2 bps at 1.17%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is up slightly at 1.93%. The China Govt 10yr is still at 2.72%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.59% (down -2 bps from this time yesterday) and still above the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.58% (down -1 bp). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.80% and back up +2 bps from this time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR TURNS HIGHER
The Kiwi dollar is up +¾c from this time yesterday to 66.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 59 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now back up at 71.1.
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BITCOIN HOLDS
Bitcoin has changed little today and is now at US$38,670 which is up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.6%.
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