Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None of their main rivals has followed ANZ's mortgage rate hike yet. Update: BNZ has now largely followed ANZ. But the Cooperative Bank has raised their fixed rates by about +10 bps.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
And the Cooperative Bank has raised most of its TD rates by +10 bps or +20 bps.
DOWNWARD CORRECTION
REINZ's House Price Index shows a housing market correction is now well underway.
RECORD HIGH IN NINE YEARS
Today's dairy auction saw prices rise another +4.2%, the third such rise in a row and to their highest in nine years (and their highest ever in NZ$).. This is solidifying the farm gate milk payout forecasts, and there may be an upside yet. Certainly the next season 2022/23 forecasts seem sure to be bumped up. More here, and here.
NO EVIDENCE WE ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRODUCTIVE
Statistics NZ released its 'multifactor productivity statistics' for the economy today. This one is really only for the data wonks. The analysis is complex, necessarily so because properly measuring 'productivity' is complex. One negative of this approach is that it only focuses on the 'measured sectors', rather than the whole economy, and the bits left out tend to be naturally unproductive like the many public services that have inputs and costs, but little [measurable] output. That all means that even though StatsNZ reports measured labour productivity rose +0.5% in the year to March 2021 and measured capital productivity rose +1.0% (for a weighted average of +0.7% rise), almost certainly New Zealand's overall productivity wasn't that good. This data includes the first pandemic wave, but not the impact of either Delta or Omicron. (On a simplified basis, we can work out the total number of paid hours the economy in the year to September 2021 and relate it to the volume of 'real' economic output (excluding inflation). And that broad-brush inputs-to-output analysis shows we actually got +1.1% more outputs than our labour inputs. The swings are wild however, with good q-on-q gains in Sep-20, Dec-20 and Mar-21, a huge gain in the Jun-21 quarter followed by an almost equally large retreat in the Sep-21 quarter.)
BEEN POSITIVE BUT HIT COMING
Fletcher Building (FBU, #8) today reported its half year earnings up +41% to $171 mln despite the lockdown disruptions. But they also foresee a potential Omicron hit in its New Zealand operations that could cost it up to +$50 mln.
DEMAND FOR MANAPOURI POWER BUILDING
We have noted that while aluminium prices stay high, Tiwai Point will probably want to stay open. But it will have to compete with other projects lining up for the electricity. There is a huge data center planned. And there is a world-scale green hydrogen facility making progress, with expressions of interest from four world-scale development partners with Meridian and Contact. One is Japanese, one European, and two are Australian.
CHINA NOT FACING UP TO STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES
Chinese official media can't hide the growing economic slowdown there. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has "urged efforts to gather wisdom from all sides to improve the government's work, and specified measures to bolster China's industrial economy and service sectors". They are stepping up support for sectors who are doing it hard. And some local governments have lost their land sales gravy train, resulting in sharp pay cuts for some staff, certainly layoffs. Its bad when local governments are doing that. And all this comes at a time when 10+ mln people are about to join their jobs market. The last thing they need is a restless unemployed and disillusioned population.
SOFTENING DEMAND REMOVES PRICE PRESSURE
Chinese inflation is retreating as their economy slows. Their CPI was up just +0.9% in the year to January, and well below the December rate of +1.5%. Perhaps deflation threatens them? Their producer prices are rising but also not as fast. They were up +9.1% in January, a retreat from the +10.2% in December. Month-on-month they fell, and that is two consecutive months of month-on-month falls. Expect a Chinese rate cut soon.
LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In NSW, there has been another big rise to 10,463 new community cases reported yesterday, now with 49,578 active locally-acquired cases, and another 27 daily deaths. There are now 1,478 in hospital there, now well off their high. In Victoria they reported 8,149 more new infections yesterday, little-changed. There are now 49,936 active cases in that state - but there were 18 deaths there. Queensland is reporting 6,596 new cases and 12 deaths. In South Australia, new cases have risen to 1138 yesterday and 2 more deaths. The ACT has 494 new cases and no deaths, and Tasmania 625 new cases and no deaths. Overall in Australia, more than 27,000 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 43 cases stopped at the border, plus 1160 new cases reported in the community, a new record.
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trading, gold is now at US$1852 and down -US$19 from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES REBOUND
The S&P ended the day up +1.6% on Wall Street. Tokyo has opened today up +1.9%. Hong Kong is up +0.9% at its open; Shanghai is up +0.6%. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is up a stronger +1.4% in late afternoon trade
SWAPS FIRM AGAIN
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to have risen today by about +3 bps. The two year is back to June 2016 levels now. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 1.23% from this time yesterday. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is up +6 bps from yesterday to 2.24%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.81%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.86% (up +4 bps from this time yesterday) and now below the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.88% (up +6 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 2.03%, and up +5 bps from this time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is a little firmer today at 66.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmish too at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 58.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up very slightly at 70.9.
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BITCOIN FIRMS AGAIN
Bitcoin is a little firmer today at US$44,018 and up +3.4% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/- 1.5%.
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82 Comments
Rules of Acquisition: 3rd Rule
Acquiring Peace
I think David Seymour did well today; by both meeting with protest representatives and taking a roasting from the media.
It reminded me of Quark's sage advice based on Ferengi Philosophy:
and black lives matter and stop mining and gas exploration -- in fact met and announced a ban on the steps itself -- without even consulting her own cabinet - and many others on issues she agrees with -- but wait anythign she doesnt -- i reject the premise -- and indeed will change rules to stop people protesting ....
boots way too big for -- cummupance arriving soon
Unless someone up there did something. Jacinda and Co have thrown their toys out of the cot for someone (Persons) not doing what they tell them. It just highlights to NZ more than ever that these bunch can't manage anything, but locking the borders. It really has turned into a side show of incompetence.
I think Labour have really mis-read the general mood out there quite badly. You can't just brush off the dissenting view by claiming its only a minority if you know its not. Because that's going to come back and bite you.
Maybe a timely reminder that the politicians work for all of us. In this case, not just the vaccinated.
Misread the room. They don’t read anything until after it has happened. This time they are exactly exposed fair square and centre. No amount of retrospective spin, mealy mouthed words, can obscure this one. It is sitting there in swelling numbers, right outside of the gates. A government that has been basking in self acclamation, self satisfaction & soon, if not already, self pity. A lot of puffed up academic amateurs, student politicians, without a clue as to anything either worthwhile or worldly. The whole shooting box is an absolute disgrace. The whole world is laughing at us.
I think you're right, she has completely misread the room.
I wasn't particularly supportive of them originally, but Labour/Jacinda's mismanagement has left me sympathetic to the protestors.
In interviews, Jacinda seems to think aggression and "stamp it out" will win people over. It's really not working.
Just talk over any questions you don't wish to answer, genius.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qtlue4iVLbM
The interview on AM a couple of days ago, our PM was virtually manic. Throwing arms wildly in the air, shouting down questions. Worst display by any PM I have ever witnessed, including a drunk Muldoon. That was not becoming of a Prime Minister. That is not an image that broadcasts to the world that we are being soundly and intelligently lead. An utterly disgraceful display in my opinion.
There this one too - https://youtu.be/oZKQOGy0CIg?t=741
I believe that's Barry Soper asking her about the protests during the Covid update. Her body language and hostility says it all.
"Their requests, and demands, of the New Zealand people...". Us Vs them language. Aroha indeed.
Another bullshit comment by someone (Merv from Manurewa?) with no actual knowledge of the facts.
There are consequences to dragging politicians family's into public discussion....it severely limits the pool of talent willing to go into politics. We already struggle for real talent..soon we will be like USA...choosing between idiots like Trump or Biden.
Even the booster rate is pretty high. So some boosted won't like mandates, masks, paying more for a ford ranger, etc, but most are generally in agreeance.
Otherwise if the sentiment was that strong, there'd be an overwhelming boycott of vaccines.
It sucks if someone lost their job cause they didn't want to get vaccinated.
Maybe these guys can all chip in and buy their own freedom island.
Pa1nter seems you are very scared of Omicron I know a number of people who have had it and all of them no problems if you are healthy .if you want to inject yourself with 10 boosters go ahead but each of us has choice if you don’t like it stay at home get a backbone you really don’t have to do everything the government tells you.
Im ok with it, I'm pretty low risk profile.
But I know quite a few higher risk people, as do most people I know. If we were in the States, pretty good chance one of them would be dead by now.
Some say death is the ultimate freedom but most people don't want to speed up the process if they can avoid it.
If I want to benefit from society then I accept that comes with a certain level of compliance. Otherwise I'd go live in the woods or walk the earth or something.
Without freedom you are not really living just existing, I have friends and family in UK all ok most double jab only older one have had booster but all ok. This government has used every trick from fear to tuning people against each other all i am saying is if you want to take vaccine boosters that’s fine but don’t put your fears on others most people are happy without boosters, passport are just about control from government who knows what they might mandate next.
So in my professional life, I got to choose
- live under a sometimes asinine health and safety regime, for better rates, in safer environments
Or
- be "free" to do dodgier work for less pay, around other trades that are closer to the clown end of the spectrum, because following guidelines is something they're adverse to.
This covid thing is just the same on a larger scale. An annoyance, but seemingly much more appealing than the alternative. Life's all about compromises.
People making this their hill to die on have very little comprehension of what actual tyranny is.
i work in healthcare -- at very senior level in NGO -- almost to a person we are united in our frustration and despair at how poor the information is -- how late it comes -- how confusing and that its still lying to the public - There are ZERO NONE SFA N95 masks available on teh MOH PPE portal for providers to order -- there have been ZERO Rt tests - and those of us who ordered abroad had our orders delayed -- the registration process is an appalling waste of time -- for exampe in one service where i have nine houses i had to do nine separate registration -- total of over 50 registrations for one company -- and guess what -- first close contact staff member was turned away from three separate sites today and told to go elswhere as there were none Available -- When your health providers are so angry with the MOH and Labour -- you are out on your ear!
The way the PM and the media had been carrying on, you'd think that if an MP came within earshot of these protestors the whole universe would self-implode.
On vax numbers alone, about 5% of the population are represented (to some extent at least) by the protestors. That doesn't include anyone who is vaccinated but is opposed to mandates.
That is a big enough percentage to deserve some kind of representation, or at the very least recognition. Every other protest or movement, no matter what it is, gets some recognition from MPs.
Good on Seymour for meeting with them, even if it was probably only an opportunistic play now that he's faced with rapidly declining poll numbers.
What I cannot understand in all this is Ardern's vehement refusal to acknowledge the protestors in any form other than being a bunch of imported, anti-vax domestic terrorists.
There are clearly some undesirable elements in the protest, but does she genuinely expect us to eat up every word she utters and leave it at that?
Did she not think her gleeful implementation of the mandate might have at least some people angry? She did, after all, promise prior to the last election that such a step would not be taken. Not hard to see why people might be frustrated.
Surely it would be better to acknowledge the genuine grievances, and diffuse the situation?
Did Brian Tamaki get any recognition from an MP during his earlier protests? They way the Wellington protestors have acted (illegally parking in the city from day zero with utter disregard for the local business and residents) isn't really conducive to respective dialogue if you ask me.
of which a huge number would prefer not to but have to to keep their jobs - i work in healthcare -- and almost 20% of my staff did not want to get hte vaccine but had to to keep their jobs and lifetime vocations - i lost about 2% in the end -- but it was ten times higher -- and i have around 15% who are still not boosted and very definately dont want to be - there are an awful lot of people - who are vacced and boosted -- that oppose the mandates - please do not mistake compliance with approval they are very very different things
100%
Also, what exactly is the logic behind mandating a third vaccination on people who are already double vaccinated ??
If you are double vaccinated you are protected, this is what they were parroting last year.
The International vaccination proof you can download after a double vaccination is fine anywhere in the world, except in NZ when you work in education, health. In that case they mandate a third vaccination.
Zero logic in that decision, unless they work towards loosing the next election.
First poll since the election yo show more support for National than Labour.
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2022/02/roy_morgan_poll_january_2022.html
Since their Oct/Nov poll lost year, Roy Morgan's numbers for Labour have diverged a lot from 1 News-Kantar and Newshub-Reid polls. I wonder who will end up being right?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_…
Curia, which in my opinion do the best polling appear to also be leaning the other way: https://twitter.com/henrycooke/status/1493716447746756609
Many comment on this website are bang on and also matches Bernard Hickeys' analyses - Jacinda Arden promise that under her will never ever allow house price growth to stop is at stake and now that growth is stopping, will go out of the way by pumping money or by removing all obstacle in housing ponzi growth.
https://thekaka.substack.com/p/govt-set-to-honour-housing-guarantee?tok…
HOUSE PRICE HAVE BEEN INCREASING EVERY MONTH SINCE LAST 22 MONTHS BY AS MUCH AS 60% AND APPROACH HAS BEEN WAIT AND WATCH. NOW AFTER WAIT AND WATCH OF 22 MONTHS, WHEN HOUSE PRICE HAVE FALLEN BY JUST 2% IN LAST TWO MONTHS IS PANICKING - FORGETING WAIT AND WATCH POLICY.
Really just 2% fall after 60% plus gain in two months and .....
This confirms their intend and next time should not shamelessly shed crocodile tears for FHB.
Sentences, proof reading and turning caps-lock off would make this comment far more readable.
Also, I don't recall the PM ever promising prices wouldn't fall. She made a stupid comment about more sustainable increases and a bunch of mouth breathers read too much into it.
While there will be more competition for the power, if they build all 15 modules that datacenter will use a hefty 150 MW. But that's still around a quarter of Tiwai Pt's 570 MW. It's also only projected to employ 25 people vs the aluminium smelter's 800+, so isn't going to help employment much in the region.
Interested in peoples' thoughts on the Auckland CBD / city fringe apartment market.
I'm ever so slightly 'contemplating' the potential idea of buying a 2 bedroom apartment, to live in (and sell my current place).
The main reason being convenience on several fronts for our household, but also because I think there *could* be a profound slump in the CBD market, with some good value buying possible, over the coming year.
Now, I wouldn't touch more than 90% of CBD apartments with a barge pole.
I'm talking about the high end of the middle market, 2 beddies that might currently value at about 900K, but might drop in a slump to say 700-750K.
Interested in people's thoughts on where they see this market going, there's a range of headwinds:
- It's investor dominated, and various changes might see some investors exit
- Impact of rising interest rates and CCCFA etc
- Lack of activity in the CBD for the foreseeable future, and lack of international students - plus massive university accommodation buildings finished in the last 2 years plus more coming on line
- Low/ negative net migration
- Growing homelessness issue
Some quite nice places coming up around the eden terrace area, France st etc plus close to me eden. No views on a downturn, but I think good quality city fringe apartment living will be a reality in the next few years. But I think the sort of apartment you're describing may be closer to the 1M+ range.
You can each enter - your, partner, kids. Just need email and phone that are unique got each entry.
Friend got 1 in first round.
We'd entered twice and got 2 on 15th Feb. Can register up to 25th Feb for 1st March draw. We gave 1 to friends on very limited budget. You do have to read the info carefully and click through the sold out options to change dates and ta da - not sold out. It's $100 to spend, minimum 3 people so if your activity is over $33 each you have to top it up. Seen lots if complaining from people who haven't read the 2 weeks to book but can book up to 10 weeks out, or that its all sold out as they haven't changed booking dates etc.
Wow. Tony Alexander today admits house prices falling. He previously forecasted they would rise a small amount this year, I guess we have most of the year left so we will see.
Apart from Ashley Church and CWBW is there anyone left who thinks prices will rise this year?
Labour is working hard to loose the next election with their vaccination mandate policy.
In terms of covid-19 vaccination, New Zealand is number 16 in the world already.
One of the best in the world, just behind Australia (#15).
80.27% of our total population is fully(twice) vaccinated, about 4 million people.
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