Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No more today, so far.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised its RapidSave bonus saver by +25 bps to now give a potential rate of 0.70%.
JUST GETTING GOING?
Dairy prices continued their winning run in the GDT auction this morning, up +5.1% in USD terms, although up only +3.1% in NZD terms as the Kiwi dollar firms. Overall these prices have risen +19% in just the first nine weeks of 2022. More upside is expected.
TOPPING OUT?
CoreLogic says rising property values may have peaked and are likely to start falling soon. The average value of Auckland homes passed $1.5m for the first time in January.
TAKING A BREATHER
Building consents issued for new apartments took a dive in January but townhouse and house consent numbers rose. At these levels residential construction should stay buoyant for a while yet.
WEAK NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSENT LEVELS
The value of non-residential building consents fell -7.3% in January from a year prior, due to a particularly weak month for education consents and other public sector work. This was made up partially by an increase in private sector activity.
A -$9 bln TURNAROUND - FROM A SURPLUS TO A DEFICIT IN SERVICES
New Zealand fell from a +$3.8 bln surplus in 2019 to a +$1.0 bln surplus in international trade in services in 2020 to a -$5.4 bln deficit in 2021. Interestingly, we ran still ran a +$91 mln surplus with China in our services trade in the December 2021 quarter, and a much more significant +$254 mln surplus with the US in Q4-2021, but we had a huge $688 mln deficit with the EU on top of a -$62 mln deficit with the UK, and a -$506 mln deficit with Australia (dividends from banks and insurers make up part of that). The UK one is lowish in our stats because they funnel much of their takings via havens, more so than the others. Singapore (-$846 mln in Q4-2021) and Bermuda (-$72) are favourites. (Singapore is also where Visa and Mastercard shelter their earnings from the NZ tax authorities. Of course, they aren't the only ones)
TAKING THE GLOSS OFF
Our overseas terms of trade weakened slightly in Q4-2021 after running up very quickly for most of 2021. It was the late fast rise in the cost of imports that took the gloss off the still-rising export performance.
DEMAND UP BUT PROCESSING CONSTRAINED
NZ cattle farmers are facings good international demand for their product, but processing delays due to the Omicron spread means that many will not be able to take advantage.
SELECTIVE GOUGING
Consumer NZ says they have found big price differences on Rapid Antigen Tests for sale. A price check found they varied greatly among retailers, with prices ranging from $6.50 to $19 per test.
ASB APPOINTS COLIN MACDONALD TO BOARD
ASB has named Colin MacDonald as a director, effective Wednesday (today). MacDonald was chief operating officer at ANZ between 1995 and 2002, and is now principal of MacDonald Consulting. He's also a former CEO of the Department of Internal Affairs and government chief digital officer, and was CEO of Land Information NZ.
CLEANUP TIME FOR A DISEASED CESSPIT
Parliament grounds are currently being cleared, finally. As someone else noted, it is weird watching a bunch of 'protesters' denying a disease they all currently have!
RECOVERED
In Australia, their economic activity expanded by +3.4% in Q4-2021 from the prior quarter on the reopening from delta lockdowns (which were centred in NSW, Victoria and the ACT). This follows a -1.9% contraction in Q3-2021. Year-on-year Q4 was up +4.2%. For all of 2021 it is up +4.7%. After falling -2.2% in 2020 from 2019, it is back up to AU$2.05 tln in the year, but only from AU$2.0 tln in 2019. This data had no reaction in markets.
GOLD UP
In early Asian trading, gold is now at US$1941/oz and up +US$37 from this time yesterday but down -US$4 from the close earlier today in New York.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
Wall Street ended its Tuesday session down -1.6%. Tokyo has opened down -1.8%. Hong Kong is down -1.2% at their open. Shanghai is down -0.6% at its open today. However the ASX200 is flat in early afternoon trade there. The NZX50 is down -0.5% near its close
SWAPS LOWER
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to be about -3 bps lower. But the 90 day bank bill rate is up to 1.32%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is down -7 bps from this time yesterday to 2.10%. The China Govt 10yr is up +3 bps at 2.84%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.78% (up +2 bps) and now well above the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.69% (down -4 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.75%, an -11 bps fall from this time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed than this time yesterday, now at 67.7 USc despite the strong dairy result. Against the Aussie we are also little-changed at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +½c at 60.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is firmer at 72.5.
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BITCOIN FIRM
Bitcoin is up again today, now at US$44,071 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
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112 Comments
You clearly haven't been paying enough attention to the fringe because a few of the Wellington "protestors" have indeed been denying it as a disease - and there are heaps of such people on the internet not to mention in US EDs. The run on tinfoil at the local supermarket because they were getting sick from "EMF radiation" was a particular low point for the protest. Sure, maybe some were being ironic, but there are definitely quite a few living in an alternate reality.
I'm currently studying full time so finances don't extend to directly funding websites atm.
I had been considering contributing when I re-enter the workforce full time as there is some good useful content here, but the editorial direction of late means I definitely won't be.
I've just signed up for another ad-free year as a patron, in part because David on occasion allows himself a view - shared by many generally, but drowned out by the libertarian drivel some of you espouse as god-given truth. Hopefully post-Covid a few of you will get back in your boxes and we'll go back to the type of informed and well-meaning banter that drew me and others to I.Co in the first place. Be kind people, be kind.
I’ve been avoiding comments for this very reason. From the very start of the pandemic, it was clear that compelling paranoid narratives were going to dominate certain commentators with their own bias and axe to grind.
I live in Wellington, I’ve seen people wearing actual_tin_foil_hats, throwing_poo at police and attacking mask wearers as they try to go about their lives, just walking to work. I’m not prepared to waste my time arguing with brainwashed “freeeeeeedom” libtards, who claim to be “protestors” in the name of Jesus or “energies” or aliens or whatever fantastical, paranoid, unimaginable victimisation they have constructed. There are no words for how self indulgent, spoiled and selfish these people are. It’s cult level delusion.
We have all smelled the level of alcohol and cannabis at the protest, its more like a festival and yet they want you to believe that somehow this is a serious political movement to protect our freedom? Yeah. Go and speak to people of Ukraine about freedom.
Totally agree, Chaston's job is not to throw stones at protesters.
Yes violence was totally unacceptable, but Adern claims she speaks for all NZer's, she does not. Her spin machine tried to paint all who oppose her mandates and refusal to debate as conspiracy nutters. Clearly that is just not the case, there is a core group of genuine sensible Kiwis who have had a gutful of Adern and Co running our lives.
There was a small group of crazies in there that spoiled it for a load of genuine folk who are very concerned at loss of jobs from mandates and riding roughshod over democratic rights. I many ways what happened yesterday was death of democratic protest in NZ. Just Sad
What's also weird is the use of extremely dangerous rubber bullets to disperse a legitimate and lawful protest in New Zealand. What's weird is that NZ now appears to be a militarised police state. The Chinese gave the Tiananmen protest 3 months from April until June, but Jacinda only tolerated the protesters for 23 days. What's weird is the total groupthink that's beset the New Zealand media. The media's inability to use google scholar to do some basic research for themselves to discover that the covid vaccines are practically useless for healthy fit people and children. Yes this is all very weird.
Things are heating up in Wellington. Watch live:
Exactly the same experience Rhumline! Friends and colleagues have been abused just walking down the street by the “protestors”. One was actually physically attacked. I guess the freedom from abuse and violence is not justified unless it agrees with whatever deranged narrative they believe on that particular day?
Let’s all tattoo “freedom” on our foreheads and invent fantastical stories about the government being a fascist Nazi regime in utter DISRESPECT to the MILLIONS of human beings that have been murdered by real fascists regimes. Or those people who have family who were murdered in the holocaust and are utterly disgusted by the cheap use of this insult. Whilst actual fascist regimes make mass graves and people live in utter terror…. this “anti-regime” protest has food trucks and constant party music?
The “protestors” fulfil every possible grotesque cliche and yet irrational political allegiances mean that formally sensible people are readily sympathising with the farce.
Comparatively, the police have been calm, professional and civil every time anyone has observed them, and the “protestors” are acting like they are at a festival, aside from when they looking for an excuse to cause mayhem and escalate violence (whilst using their children as human shields and chanting “love and peace”). It’s stomach churningly perverse.
I wonder if the surge of police action (violent and destructive) has anything to do with the end of their peaceful chill vibe?
I think it has more to do with the distraction of the Ukraine conflict. The window of opportunity to crush the protest was narrow, but the government took it. There's an ugly psychological element to all of this too. When the PM, opposition parties, and media are all contemptuous and vilifying a particular group then that serves as a green light to brutalise that group of people without consequence. It's almost encouraged.
I didn't realise Parliament had been demolished?
But in all seriousness, you only need to watch the Facebook live streams (not the NZ Herald/Stuff ones that are a bit distant) to see that the majority of people left are there for trouble.
Makes for an unproductive afternoon of livestream viewing, however.
The clown show that got vindicated by Justice Cooke.
"...The Court then considered whether this limitation upon fundamental rights was reasonable, and demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society as is required by s 5 of the New Zealand Bill of Rights. Having considered the relevant factors it found that it was not.
...He concluded that Omicron did pose a threat to the continuity of workforces, including Police and Defence Force workforces because it was so transmissible, but that this was the case for the vaccinated as well as the unvaccinated."
https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1990/0109/latest/DLM225501.h…
This is a good stream -
Point one has been achieved, and point two is clearly not working (record daily cases just about every day, anybody?)
The mandates worked, from an "end justifies the means" perspective.
Why keep them around a day longer than is needed if they aren't working any longer? They don't seem to be providing any benefit going-forward, apart from fuelling protests and disruption.
What, exactly, are the mandates doing right now that is beneficial for us?
I actually agree with the other restrictions/rules in place at the moment. Keeping event sizes smaller, wearing masks, WFH if you can etc all makes perfect sense right now. I'd go further and say we should be discouraging activities like extreme sports, driving etc that may increase risk of hospitalisation until the peak has passed.
But it's abundantly clear that Omicron has "out-smarted" the vax pass system (which was really a proxy to boost vaccinate uptake).
It's done what it needed to do, which is get the vast, overwhelming majority of the population vaccinated.
What benefit is showing your vax pass serving now? Nobody who isn't yet vaccinated is going to be convinced at this stage (I guess maybe now that the new Novavax option is here ... but that seems unlikely) and they are going to be exposed one way or another so will get sick regardless.
So no, I don't disagree with the restrictions. But I do believe the mandate/pass system has outlived its usefulness relative to the potential harm and disruptions now being caused by protests etc.
Multiple studies suggest mandates make no difference to infection rates.
It's only use is to blackmail or coerse people into vaccination. So it's job was done months ago.
Govt policy is to double down on its decisions sighting evidence that it never references.
The sheeple just lap it up like good little puppies
The government should have been building up health service for last two years rather than pushing up house prices giving money to friends,all over the world restrictions and mandates are being dropped Albert if you think they have done a good service for population you are mistaken.
We can denigrate the protesters, call them names and I’m sure there are reasons given to do so. But if we do not look deeply at the circumstances that bought about this protest in the first place I fear our NZ society will be much worse off for it.
A family friend walked through the protest area last week while down in Wellington. He wore a mask the whole time, wasn’t harassed, said it was one of the most peaceful environments he’d ever encountered. So the broad brush of disgust and loathing that has been used to paint these protesters is one I find totally abhorrent.
I'll be honest; I'm actually glad to see the protest coming to an end. The legacy media in this country have done such a good job of demonising the protesters that their ongoing presence at parliament was starting to do more harm than good to their cause. Anyone opposed to the government's COVID-19 response now risks being "lumped in with the crazies", and having their opinions summarily ignored.
When we ignore legitimate concerns just because we don't happen to hold them ourselves, and marginalise those who do, we create rifts in society which often have disasterous consequences. Diplomacy is the art of reconciling these concerns, and it seems to me that today this art has been lost. We are seeing the same ignorant approach being taken in eastern Europe - demonise those we disagree with, and ignore their legitimate concerns. I just hope we manage to rediscover diplomacy in time to prevent things escalating over there, since the consequences will be far worse than what we've seen down in Wellington.
It's actually funny how much our Govt look and sound like Russia right now.
Agressive Police, shutting down "far right" protesters, protesting a govt action. All while the Govt "Request" media only portray the events in a certain way.
Not saying they are the same. But close enough to be uncomfortable.
Been a hell of a ride for almost the first quarter of the 21st Century. Only thing missing is a WW3. Undoubtedly someone somewhere is working on that. As PDK would avow, the pressure for resources & enrichment and space to live normally, is approaching a crescendo. Still can visualise, have never forgotten, back on the farm when small, the evening disaster when the lid on the pressure cooker came off too soon, and dinner ended up on the ceiling. I was just old enough to have an inkling of the trauma of the wharfie strike, Holland’s government. Fast forward to 1981 the ill fated Springbok tour. And today at parliament, the same. Regardless the rights and wrongs, the sides, the cause, whatever justification claimed the fact is watching New Zealanders fighting New Zealanders is appalling, shocking. And so I say Ms Prime Minister deny it or not, ignore it or not, nonetheless this shameful event has happened on your watch. Look in the mirror, and utter two words. Why me.
Luxon's siding with the protesters last week was miscalculated - claiming that the protest was just the tip of the iceberg - that protesters were just raising concerns shared by many ordinary New Zealanders.
Of course, Luxon has since changed his tune following criticism from Audrey Young and others that his speech reeked of opportunism and bad faith .
Imo the protest is all bad news for National - not many will support planned protests from Groundswell for example.
'Snooty' showing disapproval or contempt towards others especially those considered to belong to a lower social class.
The protesters looked a little rough after a few days on the road and 3 weeks camping. Its awful listening to the commentators denigrating these folk who have just fought for our rights. The snooty brigade look out of touch with reality. No matter anyones thoughts on the mandates and jabs, these people have been treated very poorly by their representatives to parliament. Yes they hit parliament with a hiss and a roar which was very confronting. But there was no Zelenksky to front up and listen and take responsibility for their plight. There was a Putin buried in her bunker, getting others to do the dirty work. While she kept her hands pristine clean.
Very well stated. The media have shown themselves to be the puppets of the Government.
I like debate and even though I am double vaxed, I am not quite due for my booster. I have read the manufacturer's recommend-ation that this should be taken 5 months after the 2nd jab, so I for one, would like to know why our MoH is saying 3 months. I suspect it is because NZ was behind on the start of the vaccine process. Why isn't the media asking these questions?
Agree. Time to start looking carefully at the role of outrage-stoking content fed to people by tech platforms' algorithms that aim to monopolise attention. Very much playing a part in sending folk down rabbit holes and radicalising them through feeding them ever more outrage-inducing content.
There are folk with genuine concerns and reasonable approaches to expressing them, and unfortunately they get drowned out by the folk being dragged down by tech platforms' attention-based business models. Have seen this happen to multiple folk before and during the pandemic.
We need to start looking at elements of Participatory Democracy such as Citizens' Select Committees or the like to deeply engage citizens with others and the issues outside of the online environments that only result in ever more angry yelling.
NZ cattle farmers are facings good international demand for their product, but processing delays due to the Omicron spread means that many will not be able to take advantage.
That's a bit of an exaggeration, prices have been consistently good all season with no major drops forecast, and while the delays have been a pain (and likely to get worse while we ride the Omicron wave) most people are in reasonable shape to hang on through it.
I still can't work out why so many people want the government to control what they put in their bodies rather than make their own decisions.
Virtually every medication advises you to seek advice from your doctor, but this one that only has emergency use approval must be taken by everyone, and if you are injured by the first dose you should take some more near a crash cart. WTF?
Obviously at some point there is a need for government control. What if it was Ebola and there was a vaccine that would stop it spreading, should that vaccine be optional? Would you want everyone to die just so 5% can make bad decisions?
The only question really is whether covid was serious enough for these mandates.
I see parallels between the Protest and Invasion.
Both gone too far.
Both can be understood and explained, and to a certain extent sympathized with.
Both are to a certain extent the product of the actors with the most power not understanding or trying to understand the protagonists, or setting the scene to some extent for the protagonists.
Here here, exactly right.
Neither should have got to this point, had the people on both sides, in both situations, been sensible rational actors. It's like we are going through a period of self validated extremism, based on irrational/emotional responses to issues. Jacinda calling all the protestors "crazy" when it was only a small section of them. The protestors calling the government nazis/tyrants. NATO calling Russias security fears unfounded. Putin invading a country as a reaction to fear.
We need more people sitting at tables across from each other expressing their views with the powerful listening to each other. Not more direct action to try and justify their views.
Yep. We seem to have moved to a world where binary thought dominates, there's little room for nuance and recognition that there might be at least some legitimacy from what the polar view promotes.
We see this from both sides of the fence, I would say the protestors are guilty of this as well as the government.
This seems something that has really developed over the past 20 years.
No - this repo funding arrangement is not an emergency facility. Collateral generally in the form of residential mortgage backed securities is sold by the bank in question to the RBNZ to replace prior funding arrangements, presumably at a cheaper rate. The securities have to be be repurchased at a later date.
ANZ announced their savings account rate would go to 0.7% on Feb 27 effective Mar 1 for the start of a savings month. BNZ still at 0.45 on Mar 2 finally raised theirs today Mar 3 to 0.7%. Well handled by ANZ, poorly handled by BNZ. I shifted my on call savings to ANZ on the 1st.
How do you know it wasn't ANZ who got the latest 1 billion+ from the RBNZ. Someone having cash-flow problems? I thought the banks were cutting back on their residential mortgage lending.
It was recently revealed that the top earning banks in Australia were the CBA (owns ASB) and the NBA (owns BNZ) by a country mile. I don't know where ANZ and BNZ stand but, by all accounts not even close. I would take into account the security of your funds as well as your interest rate. These are unpredictable times.
Maybe not have all your eggs in one basket. I would diversify a sizeable term deposit between 2 or more of the big banks.
Low interest rates post-2001 made leverage too cheap so hedge funds, banks and pension funds used that leverage to speculate on commodities. When the bubble burst they unwound their positions which exacerbated the underlying economic crash.
Luckily Reserve Banks had learned their lesson about setting appropriate interested rates for the cyclical economic phase and...oh, hang on...
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