Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None announced so far today, but more should be imminent.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Late yesterday, ANZ raised rates on most TDs. And today Heartland Bank raised two key savings accounts by +20 bps and +30 bps.
2021 RENT INCREASES
Housing rents rose an average of $43/week across all of NZ last year (+$2,236 per year). Auckland's North Shore has the country's most expensive rents with an average $642 a week ($33,384 per year), Invercargill the cheapest at $373 ($19,396/year).
'THE HOUSE PRICE BOOM IS DONE'
According to their long-running survey, ASB says housing confidence at a record low - for at lease 26 years since the survey began - and expectations of continuing interest rate rises are at a record high.
THE RETAIL SHUDDERS
Retail spending has been hit hard by the Omicron blues, down nearly -8% in February from January, and down almost -1% from a weak February a year ago. Statistics New Zealand says the $640 mln drop in credit and debit card spending last month was the first month-on-month drop in spending since the August 2021 lockdown.
CONWAY GETS THE GIG
BNZ's chief economist and productivity specialist, Paul Conway, has been appointed Reserve Bank Chief Economist.
STILL POPULAR
2021 Resident Visa applications continue to roll in with 68,912 applications, involving around 132,000 people, received since applications first opened on 1 December 2021. Around 45,000 of those applications, involving more than 77,500 people, have been received since Phase 2 opened on 1 March 2022 and were submitted using the enhanced Immigration Online platform.
NEW HIGH
The share of electricity generated from renewable sources hit a 26-year high in the final quarter of 2021 after sizeable increases hydro and wind generation, according to data published today by MBIE. The renewable share of electricity generation was 90.7%, 6.4% higher than a year ago.
LINING UP HIGH
Rabobank is the latest analyst to raise its 2021/2022 forecast for the milk payout by Fonterra. They see $9.70/kgMS which is at the top end of what other analysts expect and in line with what Fonterra itself is indicating. Interestingly though, Rabobank isn't brave enough to issue a forecast for 2022/203, citing 'growing uncertainties' - even as others have taken a stab.
INTERIM SOLVENCY STANDARD FOR INSURERS NEXT YEAR
The Reserve Bank says its interim solvency standard for insurers will come into force on company balance dates after January 1 next year, and be in-force for about three years. The RBNZ had planned for the interim standard to be in-force from this year, but now agrees with industry feedback that this isn't necessary. According to the RBNZ, the interim standard is needed in order to take account of upcoming changes to accounting rules, IFRS 17 specifically, and to incorporate feedback on its current solvency standards. The RBNZ wants policyholders to be comfortable that insurance companies have enough money to meet their pledges to policyholders in times of stress. The RBNZ plans to consult further on the interim standard before it's finalised in the third quarter. A final solvency standard is expected to be in force from 2025.
RBNZ CONSULTING ON PENALTIES & ENFORCEMENT TOOLS FOR INSURER OVERSIGHT
The Reserve Bank is seeking feedback on the penalties and enforcement tools available for its oversight of insurers, and on its powers to manage distressed insurers. This comes via a consultation paper, the third of five in the RBNZ's review of the 2010 Insurance (Prudential Supervision) Act. The RBNZ is seeking submissions by May 20.
ANOTHER SUCCESSFUL TENDER ON SMALLER OFFER
Half the bidders at today's two NZGB tenders won something, which is an unusually high proportion. Both tranches were well supported. Both delivered higher yields. The May 2028 $100 mln attracted $231 mln in bids from 23 parties. 11 won something. Today's average yield was 2.86% up sharply from 1.76% six months ago. The May 2032 $100 mln attracted $221 mln in bids and 18 of 33 won something. The average yield here was 2.94%, up from 2.81% two weeks ago.
ANOTHER QUARTER BILLION
The Government has come back with a "final extension" to the aviation sector support, calling its $250 mln extension "critical support" for the sector through to March 2023 "to help rebuild international connections and support New Zealand’s economic recovery". This program started in May 2020 and has so far cost $? (anyone know?). Since May 2020, government support has enabled more than 12,300 flights carrying over 235,000 tonnes of airfreight with a trade value of $18.8 billion. During the same period, nearly 105,000 people have returned to New Zealand on government-supported flights, which amounts to approximately half of all those who’ve passed through MIQ facilities.
UP AT A NINE YEAR HIGH
RBA's Governor Lowe my be the only one thinking he can be 'patient' and not move against inflation yet. The latest Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations has them up to 4.9% in one year, the highest for this survey since 2013, a survey that goes back to 1995.
DEBELLE JOINS FORREST
Separately, the RBA has lost its deputy governor. High profile Guy Debelle has announced his resignation to join Fortescue Future Industries as its chief financial office June. He aims to show that 'going green' in mining can work, or so he says.
'TOKYO, WE HAVE A PROBLEM'
Meanwhile, Japanese producer prices rose +9.3% year-on-year through to February 2022, the highest rise there in nearly 40 years.
GOLD FALLS BACK
In early Asian trading, gold is retreating sharply, now down to US$1983, down -US$58 from this time yesterday, and down -US$8 from the New York close just a few hours ago.
OIL PRICE GIVES UP SOME WAR GAINS TOO
We don't usually cover the crude oil price in this afternoon update, but it too is moving down notably. It is now under US$110/bbl in the US, down -US$4 from this morning's update. It is down -US$7 for the international Brent price, to US$111/bbl.
EQUITIES BOUNCE BACK UP
In New York, equities were sharply higher. The S&P500 ended up +2.6% in their Wednesday trade. In opening Thursday trade, Tokyo is up +3.3%, Hong Kong is up +1.9%, Shanghai is +1.8% higher at their open. In early afternoon trade, the ASX200 is up +0.9% and the NZX50 is up +1.4% in late trade.
SWAPS PUSH UP EVEN HIGHER
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to have risen yet again in a further push higher. The 90 day bank bill rate is up another +2 bps at 1.45%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is up +4 bps at 2.32%. The China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp at 2.87%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.95% (up another +3 bps) and still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.92% (up +4 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.93% and up another +8 bps from this time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR SOFTENS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this time yesterday, now at 68.3 USc although it has been higher in between. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we much -60 bps lower at 61.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 73.3 and down another -20 bps.
CAN YOU HELP?
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BITCOIN BACK UP STRONGLY
Bitcoin booked a significant rally from this time yesterday, now at US$41,825 and and up +8.1%. This was more of a relief rally after it became clear US authorities weren't going to clamp down unreasonably on the crypto sector. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.
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67 Comments
Why Omicron won and why lockdowns suck. "...The way medical scientists talk about evolution is sometimes alarmingly naive, as if random mutation is what drives it. No, no, a thousand times no: it’s selection. For example, I took a train this week, putting me at risk of catching Covid from a fellow passenger. But if two other people had been planning to travel on the same train, one with mild omicron and the other with severe delta, the latter would have been more likely to change their mind and stay home because of feeling unwell. That’s selection. The fiercest enemy of a virus is another virus. Omicron ousted delta at least partly because people with mild symptoms were more likely to go to work or parties (or not notice they were ill) than people with severe ones.
...Yet here surely there is a worrying lesson about the past two years. In the weird world of lockdown, severe strains of Covid were favoured by selection. If you tested positive but felt fine you were told to stay at home. If you fell badly sick you went to hospital, where you gave your illness to healthcare workers and other patients. So mutants that were more infectious, such as alpha and delta, paid no penalty for being just as virulent, maybe more so. The natural evolution of Covid into just another mild cold was therefore possibly delayed by at least a year."
That makes a lot of sense. Mutation, selection and replication are the three key processes of evolution. Without any one of these it wouldn't occur. I think people kind of understand mutation and replication but don't understand how powerful selection is, thinking there needs to be an intelligence behind the selection process.
When something mutates it loses genetic information. Like it or not, it's actually the opposite of 'the theory of evolution'.
"Experts" come across as fools. In light of the above fact, Covid-19 is a very unstable virus [90's Made in China styles]. As Covid-19 has mutated and propagated, Muller's ratchet has kicked in HARD.. less harmful and dying (mutating) out.
Most mutations can be reversed by subsequent mutations – a DNA base can be turned from an A to a G and then back to an A again, for instance. In fact, reverse mutation or “reversion” is common. For any mutation that results in a loss of information, logically, the reverse mutation must result in its gain. So the claim that mutations destroy information but cannot create it not only defies the evidence, it also defies logic.
Mutation is the ultimate source of all genetic variation, providing the raw material on which evolutionary forces such as natural selection can act.
All viruses contains a nucleic acid, however some have DNA, and others only have RNA. Viruses don't reproduce like bacteria, they obviously co-op cells - hence viral eclipse periods.
From an information science perspective, DNA (animal/human) has built in repair functions and yields variety (phenotype) based on its respective genome. There is no observable, additional code being added to any human or animal's genome I know of.
Viruses are pretty much RNA in a protein shell with debated origins, they are a different kind of thing/situation - even so, their mutation is the result of lose of information in the classic sense.. however that takes place. Correct me if/where I'm wrong.
While a virus will tend to move towards lower lethality and higher levels of contagiousness, its by no means guaranteed. Particularly with a virus that has a long incubation time, and high degree of variability as to nature of symptoms in different patients. So the lethality of covid doesn't preclude variants from spreading.
While its difficult to get accurate case fatality numbers (given the constantly changing circumstances) both Alpha (B.1.1.7) and Delta (B.1.617.2). were considered more lethal than preceding strains
Covered in the link? "An anomaly is the 1918 flu, which was mild until August 1918, then turned nasty. Professor Ewald thinks this exception proves the rule. In the peculiar conditions of the trenches, severe cases spread faster than mild ones because they were evacuated to field hospitals and home, infecting others along the way, while mild cases stayed put. In other words, nurses and stretcher-bearers behaved like mosquitoes. Hence Professor Ewald is relaxed about the prospect of 1918’s history repeating itself: ‘By failing to investigate the selective processes that favour increased or decreased virulence of virus strains, experts still run the risk of spending too much time and too many resources in attempts to block a 1918-type pandemic.’
Superficially convincing, but is actually disinformation.
Consider that Delta was not disappearing, despite vaccinations and restrictions on our behaviours, so the simple mechanism you report of it dying out due to sufferers feeling bad and staying home has already been shown to be wrong.
Omicron does not eliminate Delta, it merely dwarfs it in the stastics, but Delta exists and still continues to spread and present a threat, even if for the time being it is squashed down to less than 1% of cases and superficially appears to have been eliminated.
The temporary increase in immunity from catching Omicron serves best to cut down on Omicron reinfection, and has a lesser effect on our immunity to Delta.
As a medical doctor with tertiary training in statistics, the article makes sense and not just superficially. The article is not disinformation. It is a complex issue, that is multi-factorial. And the article raises points, made to myself by a virologist with specific training with RNA viruses.
Not until all sanctions are lifted.
Diplomat slams London court’s ‘outrageous’ ruling to give Guaido access to Venezuelan gold
Actually I'm always suspicious of judges rulings in certain instances and their independence is very questionable. Particularly in non criminal type verdicts. Julian Assange extradition to the US, the Chinese executive of Huawei in Canada extradition to the US come to mind. Here as well. Rejecting an expert witness in a climate change court case requiring NIWA, maybe Metservice, to reveal their core unmanipulated data.
This is hilarious, lets buy our oil from the lesser two evils. Just goes to show you that everything has a price doesn't it. The USA trying to limit the damage at the pump because lets be honest here, the average US citizen doesn't give a rats arse about Ukraine but they are really feeling the pain at the pump and will kick Biden in the teeth come mid term elections.
"If the United States is serious about this, they could come back and help us build Keystone XL," Premier Jason Kenney said at a press conference on Monday. "If President Biden had not vetoed that project, it would be done later this year – 840,000 barrels of democratic energy that could have displaced the 600,000 plus barrels of Russian conflict oil"
We found the zero carbon price from our dear leaders - "The Government has come back with a "final extension" to the aviation sector support, calling its $250 mln extension "critical support" for the sector through to March 2023".
"Stratospheric oil prices are flowing through into the plastics industry with producers reducing activity as profit margins collapse, a first sign of the demand destruction that may spread to other sectors."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/oil-shock-hitting-pl…
The rise in swaps is... noteworthy. Looks like the market believes ANZ's forecast of multiple 0.50 increases. Will be interesting to see if they're right. Personally I don't think the RBNZ has the testicular fortitude to do more than 0.25 steps, but I wouldn't mind being wrong about that.
You are never sure with Orr, all his talking will be tested in the next 3 months. The heat is really coming on RBNZ now, the inflation spiral is gaining strength, workers will be after 5 to 10 % increases just to stand still, and with strong conviction. Alot of this inflation is domestic, eg power, water, rates, all 4 to 10% increases.
I would tend to agree that Orr would like to keep raising in 0.25 increments, but the recent shifts in the 2 & 10 year inflation expectations will likely force his hand. The fact that he openly said it was a tight call on whether to do 0.50 in Feb makes me think it was preparing the market for a 0.5 rise in the following months
We would rather rely on readers' support than fickle advertisers, political public funding, or dubious multinational 'gifts'. We are not supported by the Public Interest Journalism Fund, NZ On Air, nor Google, nor Facebook's similar programs.
This is even more important now with today's announcement around the RNZ/TVNZ merger. I hope you get all the support you need (and deserve!).
Aside from turning the comments section into an echo chamber, that's probably not good for their business model as it would likely reduce views/clicks/engagement.
Without "freeloaders" there would be no reason for the advertisers to advertise.
Without advertising there would be no Interest.co.
Without Interest.co you'd be left commenting on Stuff.
ANOTHER QUARTER BILLION
The Government has come back with a "final extension" to the aviation sector support, calling its $250 mln extension "critical support" for the sector through to March 2023 "to help rebuild international connections and support New Zealand’s economic recovery". This program started in May 2020 and has so far cost $? (anyone know?).
Bernard reckons its $815 millon.
https://thekaka.substack.com/p/housing-and-food-stress-intensifies?s=r
Crazy that the government is throwing money at AIR when they are in the driving seat for the inevitable capital raise. If we're lending money to them at a reasonable interest rate, and will soon be participating in the equity raise, why on earth are we also gifting money to them?
The schemes have been used by 12 different airlines and currently supports nine airlines flying to 23 international destinations.
The nine airlines supported are: Air New Zealand, China Southern, China Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Emirates, Malaysia Airlines, Air Tahiti Nui, Korean Air and Aircalin.
Not just Air NZ.
Brierley, Bruce Judge, Alan Hawkins et al did it all the time pre 1987 crash. Any psychologist will tell you that we have totally irrational perceptions of what a share should be worth. The ones I participated in would give us a $3 share for a dollar, for each share we already owned.. Therefore we would have 2 shares. Should be worth $2 each. No. In a surprisingly short time back to the psychologically correct $3. We all did that heaps of times.
Half the bidders at today's two NZGB tenders won something, which is an unusually high proportion.
You missed the linker: Results of Inflation-Indexed Bond Tender 805
this is the link. https://debtmanagement.treasury.govt.nz/tender/inflation-indexed-bond-t…
Thanks - NZDM updated the format after I viewed the results around 2.11pm and changed the link
The swap curve maturities eligible to interpolate the swap spreads against today's government bond tender maturities are flat to inverted.
Mid 6yr = 3.1575 %, mid 7yr = 3.1625%, mid 8yr = 3.1675%, mid 9yr = 3.1675%, mid10yr = 3.1725%, mid 12yr = 3.1675%
I'm happy to increase my contribution, you provide a great journalistic service. I have a question though, you made a similar plea a few weeks back, you got several suggestions from readers to increase contributions. You said you would consider these seriously. I cannot see any of them implemented, what happened?
GOLD FALLS BACK
In early Asian trading, gold is retreating sharply, now down to US$1983, down -US$58 from this time yesterday, and down -US$8 from the New York close just a few hours ago.
Love me a Gold Update. Russia has about 2300 Tonnes of gold and currency issues lol.. I watch with interest.
That's a bit unfair.
The Nats were closing in on Labour before the tax announcements.
In many respects, Labour only have themselves to blame, they have been an incompetent shambles for the most part.
This is all bittersweet for me. I have been bitterly disappointed by Labour, who I had some hopes for back in 2017 (quickly dashed), but National do not inspire confidence either.
I will not be voting for either.
Quite a bit coming home to roost right when there looks as if there is a rat amongst the chickens. The sudden lightbulb moment to seperate covid hospitalisations from those with it, but not in hospital because of it. Those highlighted numbers were previously published to invoke fear. Now they need to be decreased to evidence covid numbers are not imperilling hospital services. Minister Hipkins should resign, over definitive claims that he has broken the law and done so wilfully so as to try and conceal the truth, that Ms Bellis had her confidentiality compromised by him. For the sake of justice, he should have his day in court. Prime Minister Adern has no idea about the vast increase in government revenue from soaring petrol prices, but thinks, it seems, stuttering, stammering obfuscation will cover it. This is a very sorry looking excuse for a government. Two recent polls reveal that at long last the majority of the electorate is waking up to the fact of that.
We were talking about RUCs for EVs the other day. RUC are now payed by 40% of the light vehicle fleet! I didn't diesel market share was still growing stong, i guess it's all the Utes.
https://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/RUC-2022-A3.pdf
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