Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None announced so far today, but more should be imminent.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Late yesterday, ANZ raised rates on most TDs. And today Heartland Bank raised two key savings accounts by +20 bps and +30 bps.
2021 RENT INCREASES
Housing rents rose an average of $43/week across all of NZ last year (+$2,236 per year). Auckland's North Shore has the country's most expensive rents with an average $642 a week ($33,384 per year), Invercargill the cheapest at $373 ($19,396/year).
'THE HOUSE PRICE BOOM IS DONE'
According to their long-running survey, ASB says housing confidence at a record low - for at lease 26 years since the survey began - and expectations of continuing interest rate rises are at a record high.
THE RETAIL SHUDDERS
Retail spending has been hit hard by the Omicron blues, down nearly -8% in February from January, and down almost -1% from a weak February a year ago. Statistics New Zealand says the $640 mln drop in credit and debit card spending last month was the first month-on-month drop in spending since the August 2021 lockdown.
CONWAY GETS THE GIG
BNZ's chief economist and productivity specialist, Paul Conway, has been appointed Reserve Bank Chief Economist.
STILL POPULAR
2021 Resident Visa applications continue to roll in with 68,912 applications, involving around 132,000 people, received since applications first opened on 1 December 2021. Around 45,000 of those applications, involving more than 77,500 people, have been received since Phase 2 opened on 1 March 2022 and were submitted using the enhanced Immigration Online platform.
NEW HIGH
The share of electricity generated from renewable sources hit a 26-year high in the final quarter of 2021 after sizeable increases hydro and wind generation, according to data published today by MBIE. The renewable share of electricity generation was 90.7%, 6.4% higher than a year ago.
LINING UP HIGH
Rabobank is the latest analyst to raise its 2021/2022 forecast for the milk payout by Fonterra. They see $9.70/kgMS which is at the top end of what other analysts expect and in line with what Fonterra itself is indicating. Interestingly though, Rabobank isn't brave enough to issue a forecast for 2022/203, citing 'growing uncertainties' - even as others have taken a stab.
INTERIM SOLVENCY STANDARD FOR INSURERS NEXT YEAR
The Reserve Bank says its interim solvency standard for insurers will come into force on company balance dates after January 1 next year, and be in-force for about three years. The RBNZ had planned for the interim standard to be in-force from this year, but now agrees with industry feedback that this isn't necessary. According to the RBNZ, the interim standard is needed in order to take account of upcoming changes to accounting rules, IFRS 17 specifically, and to incorporate feedback on its current solvency standards. The RBNZ wants policyholders to be comfortable that insurance companies have enough money to meet their pledges to policyholders in times of stress. The RBNZ plans to consult further on the interim standard before it's finalised in the third quarter. A final solvency standard is expected to be in force from 2025.
RBNZ CONSULTING ON PENALTIES & ENFORCEMENT TOOLS FOR INSURER OVERSIGHT
The Reserve Bank is seeking feedback on the penalties and enforcement tools available for its oversight of insurers, and on its powers to manage distressed insurers. This comes via a consultation paper, the third of five in the RBNZ's review of the 2010 Insurance (Prudential Supervision) Act. The RBNZ is seeking submissions by May 20.
ANOTHER SUCCESSFUL TENDER ON SMALLER OFFER
Half the bidders at today's two NZGB tenders won something, which is an unusually high proportion. Both tranches were well supported. Both delivered higher yields. The May 2028 $100 mln attracted $231 mln in bids from 23 parties. 11 won something. Today's average yield was 2.86% up sharply from 1.76% six months ago. The May 2032 $100 mln attracted $221 mln in bids and 18 of 33 won something. The average yield here was 2.94%, up from 2.81% two weeks ago.
ANOTHER QUARTER BILLION
The Government has come back with a "final extension" to the aviation sector support, calling its $250 mln extension "critical support" for the sector through to March 2023 "to help rebuild international connections and support New Zealand’s economic recovery". This program started in May 2020 and has so far cost $? (anyone know?). Since May 2020, government support has enabled more than 12,300 flights carrying over 235,000 tonnes of airfreight with a trade value of $18.8 billion. During the same period, nearly 105,000 people have returned to New Zealand on government-supported flights, which amounts to approximately half of all those who’ve passed through MIQ facilities.
UP AT A NINE YEAR HIGH
RBA's Governor Lowe my be the only one thinking he can be 'patient' and not move against inflation yet. The latest Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations has them up to 4.9% in one year, the highest for this survey since 2013, a survey that goes back to 1995.
DEBELLE JOINS FORREST
Separately, the RBA has lost its deputy governor. High profile Guy Debelle has announced his resignation to join Fortescue Future Industries as its chief financial office June. He aims to show that 'going green' in mining can work, or so he says.
'TOKYO, WE HAVE A PROBLEM'
Meanwhile, Japanese producer prices rose +9.3% year-on-year through to February 2022, the highest rise there in nearly 40 years.
GOLD FALLS BACK
In early Asian trading, gold is retreating sharply, now down to US$1983, down -US$58 from this time yesterday, and down -US$8 from the New York close just a few hours ago.
OIL PRICE GIVES UP SOME WAR GAINS TOO
We don't usually cover the crude oil price in this afternoon update, but it too is moving down notably. It is now under US$110/bbl in the US, down -US$4 from this morning's update. It is down -US$7 for the international Brent price, to US$111/bbl.
EQUITIES BOUNCE BACK UP
In New York, equities were sharply higher. The S&P500 ended up +2.6% in their Wednesday trade. In opening Thursday trade, Tokyo is up +3.3%, Hong Kong is up +1.9%, Shanghai is +1.8% higher at their open. In early afternoon trade, the ASX200 is up +0.9% and the NZX50 is up +1.4% in late trade.
SWAPS PUSH UP EVEN HIGHER
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to have risen yet again in a further push higher. The 90 day bank bill rate is up another +2 bps at 1.45%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is up +4 bps at 2.32%. The China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp at 2.87%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.95% (up another +3 bps) and still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.92% (up +4 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.93% and up another +8 bps from this time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR SOFTENS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this time yesterday, now at 68.3 USc although it has been higher in between. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we much -60 bps lower at 61.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 73.3 and down another -20 bps.
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BITCOIN BACK UP STRONGLY
Bitcoin booked a significant rally from this time yesterday, now at US$41,825 and and up +8.1%. This was more of a relief rally after it became clear US authorities weren't going to clamp down unreasonably on the crypto sector. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
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