A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Barfoot's sales volumes very low, Du Val loses in court, ANZ sets pref share margin, Aussie data impresses, swap rates tumble, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ launched a "Good Energy home loan" at 1% fixed for 3 years to a maximum of $80,000. They say there is no limit to what they will lend under this offer program, and no end date for the offer has been announced. BNZ now offers a 1% cash-back to a maximum of $20,000 (at the max. that would be a $2 mln loan!). See and compare all non-rate incentives here. The Cooperative Bank, Kookmin Bank, and TSB all raised some fixed home loan rates.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Kookmin Bank raised term deposit rates today.

VERY SLIM PICKINGS
Dominant Auckland real estate agency Barfoot & Thompson's June sales were at a 12 year low for a June, with the average price down by -$120,000 from the December peak. Barfoots sold just 684 properties in the month. They have 80 offices and "over 1,600 residential, lifestyle, rural, and commercial salespeople".

FMA 2, DU VAL 0
In October 2021 the FMA directed Du Val to remove advertising materials likely to mislead or deceive investors, considering they contravened ‘fair dealing’¹ provisions in the Financial Markets Conduct (FMC) Act. The FMA said the statements created the impression investing in financial products connected to property development was low risk when, in fact, property development, including associated finance, is inherently risky. The statements also claimed there were “no fees”, despite Du Val retaining any profit on projects above the return to investors. Du Val’s offers used the wholesale investor exclusion in the FMC Act. Du Val's court appeal of the FMA position has now failed on all counts.

SLIDING
Update: June vehicle registrations slid somewhat. There were 12,049 registrations of new vehicles for the month of June showing the market is weakening in the face of raising costs of living, high fuel prices, continued vehicle supply constraints and a weakening overall economy. Of those, 9563 were cars. more than -7% fewer than in June 2021.

SEVEN PERCENT FUNDING?
ANZ perpetual preference share offer of $250 mln (and unlimited oversubscriptions) is now open. They say it will be priced at the 6 year swap rate on July 7, plus an indicative margin of 3.25% to 3.45% pa. The six year swap rate was 3.92% the last time we looked, but it is retreating. In any event it will probably be funds that will cost them more than 7% pa for the next six years at least (and is quite the contrast to their 1% "Good Energy home loan offer". Borrow at 7%, lend at 1% ?!! Just a 'fun' contrast - obviously ANZ's treasurer knows what they are doing for the overall mix of cost of funds.)

NZX50 UPDATES
We have updated a number of NZX50 company profiles to incorporate their recent March 2022 annual report changes. Updated are Infratil, Ryman Healthcare, Goodman Property Trust, Kiwi Property, Pushpay Holdings, Argosy Property, Stride Property and Oceania Healthcare. Last week the overall capitalisation of the NZX50 dipped by -$665 mln (-0.6%) to %109.9 bln. F&P Healthcare (FPH, #1) fell -0.9%, Pushpay (PPH, #25) fell -7.6%, but Air NZ (AIR, #38) was up +8.3% to bookend the changes.

CASINOS CONDUCT & CULTURE CRISIS
SkyCity’s Adelaide casino will be scrutinised via an independent review as part of a widening Australian crackdown on the gambling industry.

INSURANCE INFLATION FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
One of Australia's largest insurers, Suncorp, says costs are rising from 'the material hardening of the global reinsurance market following elevated natural hazard activity in recent years.’. Their focus might be Australia, but Kiwi premium payers probably won't be forgotten in insurance repricing for rising natural hazard claims.

NO RECESSION FEAR IN AUSTRALIA
And staying in Australia, there was a big and unexpected jump in the number of residential building consents issued in May, up almost +10% from April when a -2% fall was expected. It is unclear how analysts could get that so wrong. Also rising is bank mortgage lending, up more than +2% in May from April, when a -2% fall was expected.

SWAP RATES DROP HARD
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet but they are falling sharply again today on top of last weeks retreat. Expect -10 bps falls just today alone. The 90 day bank bill rate slipped -2 bps to 2.83% today. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.49% and up +2 bps from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 2.87% and +3 bps higher today. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 3.63%, down -8 bps from this morning and still lower than the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond which was down -12 bps to 3.67%. The UST 10 year is now at 2.89% and down -9 bps from this time Saturday, but little-changed today.

EQUITY PRICES RISE
The NZX50 is up +0.8% in last trade today. The ASX200 is up +1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.6% today. Hong Kong has opened down -0.7%. Shanghai has opened flat.

GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$3 from this morning at US$1810/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed if slightly softer from this time this morning at 62 USc. Against the AUD we have firmed marginally to 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 59.5 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now just over 70.3.

BITCOIN STABLE
Bitcoin is now at US$19,164 and virtually unchanged from where we opened this morning. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/-2.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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