A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Fonterra cuts milk payout; Tower tightens hazard coverage, NZGB bond yields up, ComCom says shopping around can save big, swaps up, NZD down, & more

In short, it means interest rates will be lower in 2024.

Yes agreed but these big inversions are very accurate at predicting recession and recession always kills inflation, at least in the short term.

Yes this time could be different but every single time the curve inverts people say "this time is different" and it never is. Recession follows. After going through 2008 and 2009 i have learnt to pay close attention to the yield curve 

Well, I did say "A few on this site will understand what this means" and many comments above confirm that most don't get it.

We shall find out in 1 year!

I had a good discussion about this with some business associates this morning over an increasingly-expensive-by-the-week breakfast. Most are right-of-centre, as you'd expect, and many are traditionally "two ticks blue".

However, a quick show of hands of the half dozen of us around the table indicated that ACT/Seymour will be getting those formerly National votes, primarily because National seems so listless at present.

National, and particularly Luxon, don't seem to stand for anything any more (jokes about worshipping landlords aside) Everything is so reactionary - they drop a policy, or a response to a Labour policy, and then backtrack if there is any hint of criticism. Wanting to roll back the development changes that you voted for is just a more extreme example of this. I personally think that Luxon's corporate background is a contributing factor here, as corporates are the foundries of meaningless platitudes and focus group-shaped opinions. 

We all agreed that at least with David Seymour and ACT you typically know where they stand. Seymour doesn't spend much time pandering to those who will never consider voting for him, nor does he apologise when they don't like what he has to say. He's a scrapper, and therefore in with a puncher's chance as it were.

A vision is set out - you might love it, or hate it, that's not the point - and you can vote accordingly. I can respect that and I think many others can too.

It almost feels that National is so concerned about losing their base - but also concerned about trying to win the middle that is somewhat at odds with the base and donors - that the party and leader are stuck in this kind of "No Man's Land" of endless backtracks, u-turns, mis-speakings and apologies.

Hipkins doesn't play for the landlords, or the business community, as they won't vote go to Labour. Team Red is smart enough to know that their core base will never abandon them (because "my father voted Labour, and his father voted Labour, and his father's father" and all that jazz). Hell will freeze over before places like Hornby or Otara stray from Labour ... and if some of the more socialist voters feel disappointed they can always vote Green or TPM.

If National took the same approach, they could formulate policies better for the middle because how likely is it that their traditional base (not the floating middle) is going to jump sides to Labour? Are the wealthy inhabitants of Fendalton or Remuera, for example, suddenly going to decide that Labour is a better bet just because National hasn't given them everything they want? If anything, they'd just go to ACT. 

Instead, National seems to want to be everything to everyone and in doing so is now nothing to nobody. The last two weeks have truly reinforced that. 

ACT tends to hide all their candidates except Seymour, as they can be a bit embarrassing 

I agree. I’m increasingly concerned about who to vote for.

Don’t mind Chris Hipkins but am very concerned about policies of the labours coalition partners …… oh yes and I nearly forgot they totally messed up with their covid fiscal policies.

I feel the same about National as others they offer nothing and seem to cater to a tiny group.

I like David Seymour, but have serious worries about the calibre of the other ACT members, the few I have heard have scared me. Hopefully the waters will clear in the next few months.

Translated:  Make a bunch of promises appealing to as wide an audience as possible, with little intent on actually following through with those promises unless donations are involved.  Sole purpose to a) get voted in and b) line pockets.  

We pretend we are not a poor country, but we certainly are.

The Nats need to cut out our ridiculous list of 'nice to haves' sothat money goes back to the pockets of the people.

Move the non productives into productive roles.  (Wellington, yes you).  Communication consultant becomes drain layer etc.

Move to nil government advertising et al.

Could be a vote catcher if the squeals of those on the gravy train don't drown out the message.

We have almost free milk, we have great cheese makers, but Fonterra has gone out of their way to FU^K over anyone small artisan, but why Font will never make artisan cheese.   Actually Font has gone out of there way to try to F7%k over anyone making cheese why limit it to those who are good at it.     They are the Wilson Parking of international diary.

Reframing Whitney.  Tatua is good at what it does, but small, so that's bad.  On the other hand Fronterra is bad at what it does, but big, so that's good.

I disagree 

Or does he mean the cards that reward a few cents per litre off per 40c you spend - oh unless your regular fill is multiples of $40, so you either have to pansy about with multiple and/or frequent tiny fills per stop, or suck it up.

Maybe they have a great new chip out soon

I got a brand new welder 50% off, massive load of makita skins recently...    almost got my drop swa... yeah its a great time to be buying tools, i will get a digger in the next 6 months knock down...  near new  ford ranger etc by the end of the year!!!   best deals off trademe people wanting cash...     CARNAGE is coming....     This is the time you can set up a business at cost with no goodwill....     i love recessions