Nick Smyth
FOMC 'dot plot' indicates two rate hikes in 2023. Immediate reaction sees bond yields and USD spike higher, equities lower. NZ GDP this morning, RBA Governor Lowe speech and Aussie employment this afternoon
17th Jun 21, 7:49am
FOMC 'dot plot' indicates two rate hikes in 2023. Immediate reaction sees bond yields and USD spike higher, equities lower. NZ GDP this morning, RBA Governor Lowe speech and Aussie employment this afternoon
Markets trade cautiously ahead of key FOMC meeting tomorrow morning. Equities slightly lower, USD higher, most commodities (ex oil) softer. US 10-year rate continues to trade around 1.50% ahead of the Fed
16th Jun 21, 7:56am
Markets trade cautiously ahead of key FOMC meeting tomorrow morning. Equities slightly lower, USD higher, most commodities (ex oil) softer. US 10-year rate continues to trade around 1.50% ahead of the Fed
US 10-year rate breaks the bottom of the range - now 1.49%. Little movement in equities or currencies ahead of US CPI, ECB tonight. NZD underperforms again - back below 0.72
10th Jun 21, 7:48am
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US 10-year rate breaks the bottom of the range - now 1.49%. Little movement in equities or currencies ahead of US CPI, ECB tonight. NZD underperforms again - back below 0.72
US nonfarm payrolls seen as a 'goldilocks' outcome - strong enough to suggest recovery on track but not too strong to trigger an imminent Fed tapering decision. Equity markets move higher, bond yields and USD lower. RBNZ reduces bond buying pace this week
8th Jun 21, 7:50am
US nonfarm payrolls seen as a 'goldilocks' outcome - strong enough to suggest recovery on track but not too strong to trigger an imminent Fed tapering decision. Equity markets move higher, bond yields and USD lower. RBNZ reduces bond buying pace this week
Firm US economic data sees higher rates and stronger USD. Equities down but pare losses. Nonfarm payrolls the focus tonight, with the market seeing this as key to Fed tapering discussions
4th Jun 21, 7:56am
Firm US economic data sees higher rates and stronger USD. Equities down but pare losses. Nonfarm payrolls the focus tonight, with the market seeing this as key to Fed tapering discussions
Equities, bond and currency moves muted as market waits on payrolls. NZD underperforms over the past 24 hours. More RBNZ-speak yesterday, with the message that rates will eventually need to rise
3rd Jun 21, 7:51am
Equities, bond and currency moves muted as market waits on payrolls. NZD underperforms over the past 24 hours. More RBNZ-speak yesterday, with the message that rates will eventually need to rise
Bond yields rebound (US 10-year back above 1.60%), equities little moved. NZD still trading around 0.73, NZD/AUD nudges up to a four-month high. NZ 5-year swap rate jumps another 8bps as market digests the RBNZ MPS
28th May 21, 7:51am
Bond yields rebound (US 10-year back above 1.60%), equities little moved. NZD still trading around 0.73, NZD/AUD nudges up to a four-month high. NZ 5-year swap rate jumps another 8bps as market digests the RBNZ MPS
Little movement in markets on Friday night; markets look through upbeat PMIs in Europe and the US. EUR falls after Lagarde seems to push back against ECB tapering. RBNZ MPS the highlight this week
24th May 21, 7:36am
Little movement in markets on Friday night; markets look through upbeat PMIs in Europe and the US. EUR falls after Lagarde seems to push back against ECB tapering. RBNZ MPS the highlight this week
Market sentiment recovers from the tapering talk in the Fed minutes. Equities bounce back, USD and bond yields lower. NZ Government announces expansionary Budget yesterday
21st May 21, 7:50am
Market sentiment recovers from the tapering talk in the Fed minutes. Equities bounce back, USD and bond yields lower. NZ Government announces expansionary Budget yesterday
Fed minutes show "a number" of members think tapering discussion might be appropriate pushing US rates and the USD higher. Commodity prices fall, seeing NZD decline over 1%. Bitcoin has a meltdown, before recovering. Eyes on NZ Budget
20th May 21, 7:52am
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Fed minutes show "a number" of members think tapering discussion might be appropriate pushing US rates and the USD higher. Commodity prices fall, seeing NZD decline over 1%. Bitcoin has a meltdown, before recovering. Eyes on NZ Budget
US equity markets recover. US 10-year rate moves back to 1.66%. Fed officials continue to claim current inflation pressures will be temporary. NZ 10-year swap rate breaks above 2% for the first time since March
14th May 21, 8:02am
US equity markets recover. US 10-year rate moves back to 1.66%. Fed officials continue to claim current inflation pressures will be temporary. NZ 10-year swap rate breaks above 2% for the first time since March
Payrolls much weaker than expected fuelling expectations the Fed will stick to its ultra-accommodative stance. Commodity prices continue to surge - copper hits record high. US 10-year breakeven inflation breaks above 2.5
10th May 21, 7:45am
Payrolls much weaker than expected fuelling expectations the Fed will stick to its ultra-accommodative stance. Commodity prices continue to surge - copper hits record high. US 10-year breakeven inflation breaks above 2.5
Equity and bond markets quiet ahead of payrolls tonight. Commodity prices remain strong; iron ore spot price trades above $200. USD weaker overnight. AUD and NZD recover overnight from yesterday's mid-afternoon sell-of
7th May 21, 7:57am
Equity and bond markets quiet ahead of payrolls tonight. Commodity prices remain strong; iron ore spot price trades above $200. USD weaker overnight. AUD and NZD recover overnight from yesterday's mid-afternoon sell-of
US equities, rates and USD track broadly sideways ahead of payrolls tomorrow night. US inflation expectations push higher. Commodity currencies outperform
6th May 21, 7:43am
US equities, rates and USD track broadly sideways ahead of payrolls tomorrow night. US inflation expectations push higher. Commodity currencies outperform
Treasury expected to issue less debt than planned, as NZ weathers the COVID-19 storm better than expected and the Government doesn't spend all it borrows
4th May 21, 6:00am
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Treasury expected to issue less debt than planned, as NZ weathers the COVID-19 storm better than expected and the Government doesn't spend all it borrows
Equities fall after reports that Biden will hike capital gains tax. Little change in global rates. ECB President Lagarde pushes back at taper talk. More cautious risk appetite sees USD stronger
23rd Apr 21, 7:56am
Equities fall after reports that Biden will hike capital gains tax. Little change in global rates. ECB President Lagarde pushes back at taper talk. More cautious risk appetite sees USD stronger
Equity markets higher overnight, rates track sideways. Bank of Canada tapers QE, expects conditions for rate hikes to be met in H2 2022. CAD up almost 1%, dragging up NZD and AUD
22nd Apr 21, 7:43am
Equity markets higher overnight, rates track sideways. Bank of Canada tapers QE, expects conditions for rate hikes to be met in H2 2022. CAD up almost 1%, dragging up NZD and AUD
Markets trade with a more cautious tone. Equities and bond yields fall, USD appreciates. NZD breaks above 0.72 yesterday, but back at 0.7170 now. NZ CPI today and Bank of Canada meeting tonight
21st Apr 21, 7:54am
Markets trade with a more cautious tone. Equities and bond yields fall, USD appreciates. NZD breaks above 0.72 yesterday, but back at 0.7170 now. NZ CPI today and Bank of Canada meeting tonight
USD remains under pressure. EUR breaks above 1.20, NZD approaches 0.72. Equities pull back, global rates drift higher
20th Apr 21, 7:53am
USD remains under pressure. EUR breaks above 1.20, NZD approaches 0.72. Equities pull back, global rates drift higher
NZD and AUD ease back on Friday after a strong week. Not much market-moving news on Friday. Equities continue to grind higher, USD lower. US rates stabilise
19th Apr 21, 7:49am
NZD and AUD ease back on Friday after a strong week. Not much market-moving news on Friday. Equities continue to grind higher, USD lower. US rates stabilise
Very strong economic data over the past 24 hours. Yet global rates tumble; US 10-year -10bps to 1.53%. Lower rates and strong data a goldilocks combination for equities; new highs for S&P500.
16th Apr 21, 7:13am
Very strong economic data over the past 24 hours. Yet global rates tumble; US 10-year -10bps to 1.53%. Lower rates and strong data a goldilocks combination for equities; new highs for S&P500.
Bond yields and USD tick up on Friday, but both still lower on the week. RBNZ Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday - not expecting any major changes from the February MPS.
12th Apr 21, 7:18am
Bond yields and USD tick up on Friday, but both still lower on the week. RBNZ Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday - not expecting any major changes from the February MPS.
Trends this month continue overnight: equities higher, rates and USD lower. No fresh insights from Powell speech. GBP underperforms as more countries restrict AstraZeneca vaccine for younger people.
9th Apr 21, 7:42am
Trends this month continue overnight: equities higher, rates and USD lower. No fresh insights from Powell speech. GBP underperforms as more countries restrict AstraZeneca vaccine for younger people.
Super strong US economic data. Equities higher but bond yields go sideways. USD weakens across the board, NZD back to 0.7060. RBA meeting today and NZ govt. announcement on Trans-Tasman bubble
6th Apr 21, 7:51am
Super strong US economic data. Equities higher but bond yields go sideways. USD weakens across the board, NZD back to 0.7060. RBA meeting today and NZ govt. announcement on Trans-Tasman bubble
No huge surprises from the Biden infrastructure package. US equities higher, led by tech stocks. US 10-year yield consolidates above 1.70%. USD weaker, NZD back towards 0.70
1st Apr 21, 8:00am
No huge surprises from the Biden infrastructure package. US equities higher, led by tech stocks. US 10-year yield consolidates above 1.70%. USD weaker, NZD back towards 0.70