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Global asset markets struggled for direction as investors looked ahead to key central bank meetings this week. Some see the Bank of Japan raising rates and ending curve control. US 10-year treasury yields move higher
18th Mar 24, 7:30am
Global asset markets struggled for direction as investors looked ahead to key central bank meetings this week. Some see the Bank of Japan raising rates and ending curve control. US 10-year treasury yields move higher
US PPI inflation comes in hot; US retail sales weaker than expected, consistent with a shift down in consumer spending. US Fed rate cut expectations pushed back. Oil prices at new four-month high as IEA now looking for a supply deficit through the year
15th Mar 24, 7:48am
US PPI inflation comes in hot; US retail sales weaker than expected, consistent with a shift down in consumer spending. US Fed rate cut expectations pushed back. Oil prices at new four-month high as IEA now looking for a supply deficit through the year
Global equity markets consolidate near record highs in the absence of first-tier economic data. There is growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will exit from its negative interest rate policy next week, on rising wages
14th Mar 24, 7:53am
Global equity markets consolidate near record highs in the absence of first-tier economic data. There is growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will exit from its negative interest rate policy next week, on rising wages
US CPI data a touch higher than expected, providing no fuel for those looking for an imminent Fed rate cut. US Treasury yields up 5-6bps across the curve; USD modestly higher. BoJ speculation on imminent rate hike continues
13th Mar 24, 7:47am
US CPI data a touch higher than expected, providing no fuel for those looking for an imminent Fed rate cut. US Treasury yields up 5-6bps across the curve; USD modestly higher. BoJ speculation on imminent rate hike continues
US Treasury yields push higher, with supply factors weighing on the market and caution ahead of tonight's key US CPI report. Currency markets well contained but yen continues to outperform on speculation of a hawkish BoJ pivot as soon as next week
12th Mar 24, 7:39am
US Treasury yields push higher, with supply factors weighing on the market and caution ahead of tonight's key US CPI report. Currency markets well contained but yen continues to outperform on speculation of a hawkish BoJ pivot as soon as next week
US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week
11th Mar 24, 7:31am
US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week
Powell: Fed "not far" from having the confidence to cut rates. ECB on hold, with a June rate cut signal. Wage data and commentary raise chance of BoJ ending negative policy rate stance as soon as March. US and European equities up 1% to fresh record highs
8th Mar 24, 7:49am
Powell: Fed "not far" from having the confidence to cut rates. ECB on hold, with a June rate cut signal. Wage data and commentary raise chance of BoJ ending negative policy rate stance as soon as March. US and European equities up 1% to fresh record highs
Fed Chair Powell faces lawmakers; reiterates that easier policy is likely at some point this year. US ADP employment and JOLTS data in line. US Treasury yields down. USD broadly weaker with DXY index down to it lowest in over a month
7th Mar 24, 7:47am
Fed Chair Powell faces lawmakers; reiterates that easier policy is likely at some point this year. US ADP employment and JOLTS data in line. US Treasury yields down. USD broadly weaker with DXY index down to it lowest in over a month
US data print weaker again; ISM services index lower alongside more market-friendly inflation measures. Weaker equities backdrop supports US Treasuries; yields down 4-6bps for the day. China's 5% GDP growth target seen as optimistic
6th Mar 24, 7:45am
US data print weaker again; ISM services index lower alongside more market-friendly inflation measures. Weaker equities backdrop supports US Treasuries; yields down 4-6bps for the day. China's 5% GDP growth target seen as optimistic
US treasury yields are higher set against the backdrop of heavy corporate supply. Currency markets subdued. Nikkei225 at record high. Eyes on China’s National People’s Congress
5th Mar 24, 8:06am
US treasury yields are higher set against the backdrop of heavy corporate supply. Currency markets subdued. Nikkei225 at record high. Eyes on China’s National People’s Congress
US manufacturing ISM weaker than expected. New orders, production and employment all contracted suggesting the manufacturing sector is struggling to gain momentum. Preliminary Eurozone CPI data for February continued to fall
4th Mar 24, 8:08am
US manufacturing ISM weaker than expected. New orders, production and employment all contracted suggesting the manufacturing sector is struggling to gain momentum. Preliminary Eurozone CPI data for February continued to fall
Market relieved that US PCE deflators were bang in line with expectations; US 10-year rate well down from its overnight high. BoJ board member sows the seed for exit strategy from current ultra-easy policy stance, supporting JPY
1st Mar 24, 7:59am
Market relieved that US PCE deflators were bang in line with expectations; US 10-year rate well down from its overnight high. BoJ board member sows the seed for exit strategy from current ultra-easy policy stance, supporting JPY
Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again
29th Feb 24, 8:04am
Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again
Market ignores chunky downside misses to US consumer confidence and durable goods orders data. Pricing of rate hike chance fades leading into RBNZ MPS today, now just priced at a 20% chance; strong analyst consensus for no-change
28th Feb 24, 7:43am
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Market ignores chunky downside misses to US consumer confidence and durable goods orders data. Pricing of rate hike chance fades leading into RBNZ MPS today, now just priced at a 20% chance; strong analyst consensus for no-change
Global rates push higher, driven by Europe and heavy US bond supply; US 10-year rate up 6bps from NZ close. Long NZD positions pared ahead of RBNZ MPS; market pricing for near-term rate hikes eased back a little
27th Feb 24, 7:36am
Global rates push higher, driven by Europe and heavy US bond supply; US 10-year rate up 6bps from NZ close. Long NZD positions pared ahead of RBNZ MPS; market pricing for near-term rate hikes eased back a little
Equity markets consolidated after a week where major indices in Japan, Europe and North America reached record highs. Data dependency and inflation sustainability the key policy drivers before lower rates
26th Feb 24, 7:20am
Equity markets consolidated after a week where major indices in Japan, Europe and North America reached record highs. Data dependency and inflation sustainability the key policy drivers before lower rates
Record breaking equity markets across Japan, euro area and US; Nvidia's blockbuster earnings report propels the stock higher and drives S&P500 up 2%. Market continues to pare back expectations of Fed easing
23rd Feb 24, 7:41am
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Record breaking equity markets across Japan, euro area and US; Nvidia's blockbuster earnings report propels the stock higher and drives S&P500 up 2%. Market continues to pare back expectations of Fed easing
There were limited catalysts for global asset markets overnight in the absence of first-tier economic data or fresh guidance from policy makers. But eyes are on both the Fed minutes, and the keenly awaited Nvidia corporate results
22nd Feb 24, 8:31am
There were limited catalysts for global asset markets overnight in the absence of first-tier economic data or fresh guidance from policy makers. But eyes are on both the Fed minutes, and the keenly awaited Nvidia corporate results
US equities lower, led by tech, US Treasury yields lower and USD broadly weaker. Market unperturbed by surprise cut to China's 5-year prime loan rate, scepticism that it will achieve much. NZD outperforms
21st Feb 24, 7:49am
US equities lower, led by tech, US Treasury yields lower and USD broadly weaker. Market unperturbed by surprise cut to China's 5-year prime loan rate, scepticism that it will achieve much. NZD outperforms
China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
20th Feb 24, 7:43am
China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024
19th Feb 24, 7:53am
US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024
Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
16th Feb 24, 7:47am
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Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
15th Feb 24, 7:45am
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
14th Feb 24, 7:29am
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Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
13th Feb 24, 7:48am
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher