US equities end the month on a positive note. Key futures markets were impacted by a technical outage. Silver prices surge 6% to a record high. Limited movement across global FX and rates markets

US equities made modest gains into month-end with investors having to contend with a technical issue at CME Group that disrupted futures trading including for stock indices, treasuries, gold and oil contracts. The S&P closed 0.5% higher on the day and ended a volatile month near unchanged. Little over a week ago, the index had been down close to 5%. Other global stock indices were also near flat. The US dollar was broadly stable against G10 currencies and treasury yields edged higher.

Silver surged to a record high with spot prices gaining almost 6% to $56.50 an ounce. The precious metal has been supported by inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds and ongoing tight supply. Prices have increased almost 90% this year amid demand for alternative assets. Precious metals have been the standout performer amongst commodity and broader markets through 2025 with gold and platinum prices also significantly higher since January.

US treasuries edged higher in yield across the curve. 10-year notes increased 2bp to 4.01% in a quiet session. Month end rebalancing flows appeared muted despite the larger-than-average duration extension for the Treasury index. Mixed regional inflation data within the euro area had limited impact on market pricing for the ECB and European bond markets.

French inflation remained subdued and came in below consensus estimates at 0.8% y/y. The decline was supported by easing services inflation. Meanwhile CPI was surprisingly strong in Germany climbing to 2.6% y/y from 2.3% in October. However, the pickup is expected to be short-lived. Preliminary euro area CPI is released this week with headline inflation expected to match the October reading of 2.1%.

The US dollar was little changed against the major pairings in offshore trade on Friday. However, commodity currencies were firmer. The Canadian dollar gained after Q3 GDP easily surpassed economists’ expectations. The data reinforced the case that the Bank of Canada easing cycle is complete. After an initial dip, NZD/USD recovered to trade to a fresh high for the month near 0.5740. The NZD made modest gains on the major crosses and was confined to a narrow range against the AUD.

Chinese official PMIs remained subdued. The manufacturing index edged higher to 49.2 but remained below 50 for the eighth consecutive month. The non-manufacturing PM index fell to 49.5 and dipped into contractionary territory for the first time since the economy reopened in 2023.

The squeeze on market positioning in the NZ fixed income market continued in the local session on Friday alongside further weakness in Australian markets. NZ swap rates had another lurch upwards extending the post-RBNZ selloff. 2-year rates closed 7bp higher at 2.87% and the belly of the curve underperformed with 5-year rates increasing 9bp to 3.42%. After the selloff in recent sessions, there seems to be more two-way activity at current levels suggesting the repricing may be complete.

The government curve saw a similar underperformance in the belly. Bonds continued to outperform relative to swaps in longer maturities. 10-year yields increased 2bp to 4.36% with month end rebalancing flows supporting the sector after the tap syndication during November. 10-year matched maturity swap spreads declined to 37bp, the tightest level in more than a year.

Building permits for October is the only domestic data of note today. The market will be focused on Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s speech which will help assess the likelihood of a hike this month. The market is pricing around 14bp of tightening for the meeting. Manufacturing surveys are scheduled in China and the US. The ISM survey will provide a fresh read on US activity after the resilient PMI.

Stuart Ritson is a Markets Strategist at BNZ Markets.