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Walmart and Home Depot earnings reports help support risk sentiment. But mixed US data, with a plunge in housing starts and stronger industrial production. Global rates higher, reversing previous day's fall
17th Aug 22, 7:53am
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Walmart and Home Depot earnings reports help support risk sentiment. But mixed US data, with a plunge in housing starts and stronger industrial production. Global rates higher, reversing previous day's fall
Weaker Chinese economic data and surprise PBoC rate cut drive a weaker yuan. NZD and AUD are collateral damage. Much weaker US second-tier data. Global rates fall; oil prices down
16th Aug 22, 7:41am
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Weaker Chinese economic data and surprise PBoC rate cut drive a weaker yuan. NZD and AUD are collateral damage. Much weaker US second-tier data. Global rates fall; oil prices down
Risk appetite continues to improve amid signs of less pessimism in global economy. Fed officials continue to beat the drum that the job on inflation is not done yet. Big move higher in NZ rates as the market awaits this week's RBNZ MPS
15th Aug 22, 7:37am
Risk appetite continues to improve amid signs of less pessimism in global economy. Fed officials continue to beat the drum that the job on inflation is not done yet. Big move higher in NZ rates as the market awaits this week's RBNZ MPS
Markets digest the downside surprise to US CPI. Big move higher in 10-year rates and sharp steepening of curves with the market paring back rate cut expectations for next year
12th Aug 22, 7:56am
Markets digest the downside surprise to US CPI. Big move higher in 10-year rates and sharp steepening of curves with the market paring back rate cut expectations for next year
US CPI for July much lower than expected; headline inflation past the peak. Modest net reaction in rates market, after earlier plunge in yields, but equities and currencies sustain strong reactions
11th Aug 22, 7:52am
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US CPI for July much lower than expected; headline inflation past the peak. Modest net reaction in rates market, after earlier plunge in yields, but equities and currencies sustain strong reactions
Higher US Treasury rates and further curve flattening, driving the 2s10s spread deeper into negative territory. Market nerves ahead of key US CPI data tonight
10th Aug 22, 7:53am
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Higher US Treasury rates and further curve flattening, driving the 2s10s spread deeper into negative territory. Market nerves ahead of key US CPI data tonight
Some reversal of Friday's price action, with US Treasury yields lower and USD lower. Further inversion of US 2s10s curve signaling recession ahead, but US equities unfazed
9th Aug 22, 7:53am
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Some reversal of Friday's price action, with US Treasury yields lower and USD lower. Further inversion of US 2s10s curve signaling recession ahead, but US equities unfazed
Roger J Kerr says the markets are potentially under-estimating how quickly inflation could reduce over the second half of the year and, in turn, prompt central banks to ease their foot off the tight monetary policy brake a lot sooner than most imagined
8th Aug 22, 8:25am
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Roger J Kerr says the markets are potentially under-estimating how quickly inflation could reduce over the second half of the year and, in turn, prompt central banks to ease their foot off the tight monetary policy brake a lot sooner than most imagined
US nonfarm payrolls report blows market expectations out of the water. Market moves to price high chance of 75bps Fed hike in September. USD stronger, equity markets surprisingly resilient
8th Aug 22, 7:43am
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US nonfarm payrolls report blows market expectations out of the water. Market moves to price high chance of 75bps Fed hike in September. USD stronger, equity markets surprisingly resilient
Investors wait on US nonfarm payrolls. BoE hikes 50bps, economic projections make for grim reading: inflation to peak above 13% and UK economy to contract for 5 quarters in a row
5th Aug 22, 7:50am
Investors wait on US nonfarm payrolls. BoE hikes 50bps, economic projections make for grim reading: inflation to peak above 13% and UK economy to contract for 5 quarters in a row
Risk appetite higher - Pelosi leaves Taiwan, good US earnings reports and US ISM services index shows a surprising lift. US Treasuries curve inverts further, supported by more hawkish Fed-speak
4th Aug 22, 7:57am
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Risk appetite higher - Pelosi leaves Taiwan, good US earnings reports and US ISM services index shows a surprising lift. US Treasuries curve inverts further, supported by more hawkish Fed-speak
Fed speakers stick to the party line on much more policy work to do to reduce inflation. Market wakes up and drives US rates a lot higher, up 17-23bps across much of the curve. Higher rates drive USD higher
3rd Aug 22, 7:48am
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Fed speakers stick to the party line on much more policy work to do to reduce inflation. Market wakes up and drives US rates a lot higher, up 17-23bps across much of the curve. Higher rates drive USD higher
US ISM manufacturing weaker, but not as weak as feared; Still, components are consistent with a developing economic recession. As a further indicator of recession, US 2s10s fall deeper into negative territory, now minus 30bps
2nd Aug 22, 7:48am
US ISM manufacturing weaker, but not as weak as feared; Still, components are consistent with a developing economic recession. As a further indicator of recession, US 2s10s fall deeper into negative territory, now minus 30bps
Risk-on mood continues post the FOMC meeting. Wall Street up strongly, capping off best month since 2020. Equity markets supported by lower bond rates
1st Aug 22, 8:36am
Risk-on mood continues post the FOMC meeting. Wall Street up strongly, capping off best month since 2020. Equity markets supported by lower bond rates
Roger J Kerr says instead of harking for an independent enquiry into past RBNZ past decisions, our energy and intellectual horsepower is better off addressing changes we could make that result in us being less vulnerable to boom/bust cycles
1st Aug 22, 8:29am
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Roger J Kerr says instead of harking for an independent enquiry into past RBNZ past decisions, our energy and intellectual horsepower is better off addressing changes we could make that result in us being less vulnerable to boom/bust cycles
GDP data shows US economy contracted for second quarter in a row. Markets react by further paring back Fed rate hike expectations. US rates fall sharply, US 10-year hits lowest level since April
29th Jul 22, 7:59am
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GDP data shows US economy contracted for second quarter in a row. Markets react by further paring back Fed rate hike expectations. US rates fall sharply, US 10-year hits lowest level since April
Fed hikes by 75bps but Chair Powell not as hawkish as feared. Dotplot showing 100bps over remaining 3 meetings this year. US equities extend rally, US Treasury rates fall, USD weakens as Powell speaks
28th Jul 22, 7:46am
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Fed hikes by 75bps but Chair Powell not as hawkish as feared. Dotplot showing 100bps over remaining 3 meetings this year. US equities extend rally, US Treasury rates fall, USD weakens as Powell speaks
Negative economic news flow continues with weaker US data and IMF global growth outlook downgrade. EU agrees to cut gas consumption by 15%; gas prices surge again
27th Jul 22, 7:45am
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Negative economic news flow continues with weaker US data and IMF global growth outlook downgrade. EU agrees to cut gas consumption by 15%; gas prices surge again
Gasprom to cut Nordstream gas supply to 20% of capacity from Wednesday. EUR unperturbed and weak Germany business confidence data has little impact as well. US Treasury yields higher, reversing some of Friday's fall
26th Jul 22, 7:49am
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Gasprom to cut Nordstream gas supply to 20% of capacity from Wednesday. EUR unperturbed and weak Germany business confidence data has little impact as well. US Treasury yields higher, reversing some of Friday's fall
Roger J Kerr says the reversal in US bond yields is telling us that the sentiment and expectations from both bond investors and borrowers is that they see lower inflation and lower interest rates in the future
25th Jul 22, 8:10am
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Roger J Kerr says the reversal in US bond yields is telling us that the sentiment and expectations from both bond investors and borrowers is that they see lower inflation and lower interest rates in the future
Recession concerns come back to the fore after very weak US and European PMIs. Big falls in global rates as markets pare back rate hike expectations
25th Jul 22, 7:28am
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Recession concerns come back to the fore after very weak US and European PMIs. Big falls in global rates as markets pare back rate hike expectations
ECB hikes rates 50bps, unveils new anti-fragmentation tool. Draghi's Italian govt collapses. Big fall in US rates helped by lower oil prices, tentative signs of a shift in the US labour market
22nd Jul 22, 7:48am
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ECB hikes rates 50bps, unveils new anti-fragmentation tool. Draghi's Italian govt collapses. Big fall in US rates helped by lower oil prices, tentative signs of a shift in the US labour market
US equities push higher again while US 10-year pushes up above 3%. Putin says EU gas flows will restart at 20% capacity
21st Jul 22, 7:57am
US equities push higher again while US 10-year pushes up above 3%. Putin says EU gas flows will restart at 20% capacity
Equities rally strongly overnight - S&P500 +2.5%, Dax +2.7%. EUR continues to recover, breaking 1.02, after reports ECB will consider 50bps hike this week
20th Jul 22, 8:04am
Equities rally strongly overnight - S&P500 +2.5%, Dax +2.7%. EUR continues to recover, breaking 1.02, after reports ECB will consider 50bps hike this week
US equities down, global rates and commodities higher. EUR strengthens ahead of key risk events later this week. NZ short-end rates higher yesterday post the CPI data - market pricing slightly better-than-even chance of RBNZ 75bps hike next month
19th Jul 22, 7:49am
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US equities down, global rates and commodities higher. EUR strengthens ahead of key risk events later this week. NZ short-end rates higher yesterday post the CPI data - market pricing slightly better-than-even chance of RBNZ 75bps hike next month