AU$
An anti-Goldilocks US GDP report; weaker growth and higher inflation than expected. GDP up 1.6%, core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Rates market more focused on the inflation story, seeing a further paring of US rate cut expectations
26th Apr 24, 8:07am
An anti-Goldilocks US GDP report; weaker growth and higher inflation than expected. GDP up 1.6%, core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Rates market more focused on the inflation story, seeing a further paring of US rate cut expectations
Investor risk appetite recovers underpinning global equities as market looks ahead to earnings reports from US Big Tech. Treasury yields fell alongside the US dollar, following weaker than expected preliminary US PMIs
24th Apr 24, 7:51am
Investor risk appetite recovers underpinning global equities as market looks ahead to earnings reports from US Big Tech. Treasury yields fell alongside the US dollar, following weaker than expected preliminary US PMIs
Risk appetite higher with US equities rebounding. Commodity currencies outperform. NZD consolidating above the 0.59 mark and flat to higher on the key major cross rates
23rd Apr 24, 7:47am
Risk appetite higher with US equities rebounding. Commodity currencies outperform. NZD consolidating above the 0.59 mark and flat to higher on the key major cross rates
Roger J. Kerr takes an experienced look behind the headlines of recent economic data to distill what the essential trends are telling him
22nd Apr 24, 8:15am
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Roger J. Kerr takes an experienced look behind the headlines of recent economic data to distill what the essential trends are telling him
Investor risk sentiment recovered after Iran played down the damage following retaliatory strikes by Israel. Safe haven flows into US treasuries and defensive currencies reversed. NZD/USD recovered from 2024 lows but then lost traction
22nd Apr 24, 7:21am
Investor risk sentiment recovered after Iran played down the damage following retaliatory strikes by Israel. Safe haven flows into US treasuries and defensive currencies reversed. NZD/USD recovered from 2024 lows but then lost traction
US equities down modestly; US Treasury yields have pushed higher, with a stronger Philly Fed survey and hawkish Fed-speak not helping
19th Apr 24, 7:31am
US equities down modestly; US Treasury yields have pushed higher, with a stronger Philly Fed survey and hawkish Fed-speak not helping
Modest risk-off tone in the air; US equities weaker, US Treasury yields lower, credit spreads wider and oil prices weaker. NZD and AUD the best performers. Rates rise post-CPI
18th Apr 24, 7:50am
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Modest risk-off tone in the air; US equities weaker, US Treasury yields lower, credit spreads wider and oil prices weaker. NZD and AUD the best performers. Rates rise post-CPI
US Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for longer due to persistent inflation. 2-year US treasury yields reach 5%, the highest level since November. China set a weaker than expected daily yuan reference rate hurting commodity currencies
17th Apr 24, 8:02am
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US Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for longer due to persistent inflation. 2-year US treasury yields reach 5%, the highest level since November. China set a weaker than expected daily yuan reference rate hurting commodity currencies
Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack. US equities down about 1%; oil prices barely lower. US Treasury yields reach fresh 2024 highs
16th Apr 24, 7:51am
Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack. US equities down about 1%; oil prices barely lower. US Treasury yields reach fresh 2024 highs
Roger J. Kerr sees another bout of US dollar strength as markets re-price Fed interest rate cuts. But will the higher US inflation continue?, he asks
15th Apr 24, 7:43am
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Roger J. Kerr sees another bout of US dollar strength as markets re-price Fed interest rate cuts. But will the higher US inflation continue?, he asks
Investor risk aversion weighed on growth sensitive assets at end of last week amid concern about escalating hostilities. The S&P fell -1.5%, while US Treasuries and the US dollar rallied. The NZD was amongst the weakest developed market currencies
15th Apr 24, 7:26am
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Investor risk aversion weighed on growth sensitive assets at end of last week amid concern about escalating hostilities. The S&P fell -1.5%, while US Treasuries and the US dollar rallied. The NZD was amongst the weakest developed market currencies
US equities bounce back. US Treasury yields show only small movements, with a modestly steeper curve. Little impact from the ECB's in-line policy update
12th Apr 24, 7:50am
US equities bounce back. US Treasury yields show only small movements, with a modestly steeper curve. Little impact from the ECB's in-line policy update
Stronger than expected US CPI data prompted large moves across global asset markets. The S&P is down more than 1%. US treasury yields surged with big gains for the US dollar. The RBNZ decision had limited market reaction
11th Apr 24, 8:05am
Stronger than expected US CPI data prompted large moves across global asset markets. The S&P is down more than 1%. US treasury yields surged with big gains for the US dollar. The RBNZ decision had limited market reaction
US Treasury yields shift back from 2024 highs ahead of key US CPI report. Local QSBO revealed weak conditions consistent with recession. Focus now on RBNZ
10th Apr 24, 7:53am
US Treasury yields shift back from 2024 highs ahead of key US CPI report. Local QSBO revealed weak conditions consistent with recession. Focus now on RBNZ
US rates push up to fresh year-to-date highs as investors continue to push out the timing and scope of US Fed rate cuts this year. NZ rates follow up, with swap rate rises boosted
9th Apr 24, 7:29am
US rates push up to fresh year-to-date highs as investors continue to push out the timing and scope of US Fed rate cuts this year. NZ rates follow up, with swap rate rises boosted
Roger J Kerr notes another blockbuster US jobs rise. And looks at what is driving the rise of the USD. He also wonders if the RBNZ will push-back against market interest rate pricing
8th Apr 24, 9:18am
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Roger J Kerr notes another blockbuster US jobs rise. And looks at what is driving the rise of the USD. He also wonders if the RBNZ will push-back against market interest rate pricing
Strong US labour market suggests their economy remains resilient and intensified the debate about when the Fed might ease monetary policy. US treasuries back near the yield highs for the year while the US dollar couldn't sustain initial gains
8th Apr 24, 7:34am
Strong US labour market suggests their economy remains resilient and intensified the debate about when the Fed might ease monetary policy. US treasuries back near the yield highs for the year while the US dollar couldn't sustain initial gains
Risk appetite higher ahead of the key US employment report tonight; S&P500 up while Treasury yields show little net movement. AUD rises so that NZD/AUD fell to a 9-month low overnight
5th Apr 24, 7:46am
Risk appetite higher ahead of the key US employment report tonight; S&P500 up while Treasury yields show little net movement. AUD rises so that NZD/AUD fell to a 9-month low overnight
A softer than expected US services ISM moved markets but Powell didn't. Eurozone CPI below estimates in March; ECB might start rate cuts in June. Gold prices extend to fresh record highs having gained more than 15% since mid-February
4th Apr 24, 7:43am
A softer than expected US services ISM moved markets but Powell didn't. Eurozone CPI below estimates in March; ECB might start rate cuts in June. Gold prices extend to fresh record highs having gained more than 15% since mid-February
Global rates higher; US 10-year Treasury yield reaches fresh high for the year not helped by oil prices rising to fresh year-to-date highs. Equity investors show further signs of fatigue. Currency moves modest
3rd Apr 24, 7:41am
Global rates higher; US 10-year Treasury yield reaches fresh high for the year not helped by oil prices rising to fresh year-to-date highs. Equity investors show further signs of fatigue. Currency moves modest
The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to exceed all economist estimates. It was the first time the index moved into expansionary territory since September 2022. US treasury yields spiked higher in response and the USD rose
2nd Apr 24, 7:21am
The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to exceed all economist estimates. It was the first time the index moved into expansionary territory since September 2022. US treasury yields spiked higher in response and the USD rose
Roger J Kerr says US bond market worries about inflation should start to abate as they become more comfortable that the decline in inflation is not stalling and the Fed will be cutting interest rates in June. He also looks at US job data
1st Apr 24, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says US bond market worries about inflation should start to abate as they become more comfortable that the decline in inflation is not stalling and the Fed will be cutting interest rates in June. He also looks at US job data
Global equity markets are generally higher in the absence of economic data or fresh catalysts. Japanese policy makers huddle to seek plan to rescue the Yen
28th Mar 24, 7:47am
Global equity markets are generally higher in the absence of economic data or fresh catalysts. Japanese policy makers huddle to seek plan to rescue the Yen
Local interest rates shift up ahead of a new 2035 NZGB to be offered by syndication. US data mixed with labour market expectations tightening
27th Mar 24, 7:56am
Local interest rates shift up ahead of a new 2035 NZGB to be offered by syndication. US data mixed with labour market expectations tightening
PBoC and China state banks show support for the yuan, helping the NZD regain 0.60; NZD/AUD nudges down to a fresh four-month low near 0.9180. Market ignores Japan's top currency official's threat of intervention to support JPY
26th Mar 24, 7:45am
PBoC and China state banks show support for the yuan, helping the NZD regain 0.60; NZD/AUD nudges down to a fresh four-month low near 0.9180. Market ignores Japan's top currency official's threat of intervention to support JPY