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Market relieved that US PCE deflators were bang in line with expectations; US 10-year rate well down from its overnight high. BoJ board member sows the seed for exit strategy from current ultra-easy policy stance, supporting JPY
1st Mar 24, 7:59am
Market relieved that US PCE deflators were bang in line with expectations; US 10-year rate well down from its overnight high. BoJ board member sows the seed for exit strategy from current ultra-easy policy stance, supporting JPY
Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again
29th Feb 24, 8:04am
Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again
Market ignores chunky downside misses to US consumer confidence and durable goods orders data. Pricing of rate hike chance fades leading into RBNZ MPS today, now just priced at a 20% chance; strong analyst consensus for no-change
28th Feb 24, 7:43am
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Market ignores chunky downside misses to US consumer confidence and durable goods orders data. Pricing of rate hike chance fades leading into RBNZ MPS today, now just priced at a 20% chance; strong analyst consensus for no-change
Global rates push higher, driven by Europe and heavy US bond supply; US 10-year rate up 6bps from NZ close. Long NZD positions pared ahead of RBNZ MPS; market pricing for near-term rate hikes eased back a little
27th Feb 24, 7:36am
Global rates push higher, driven by Europe and heavy US bond supply; US 10-year rate up 6bps from NZ close. Long NZD positions pared ahead of RBNZ MPS; market pricing for near-term rate hikes eased back a little
Roger J Kerr says the Australia-US exchange rate is likely to surge higher faster and further than the NZ dollar-US dollar rate over coming months
26th Feb 24, 8:08am
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Roger J Kerr says the Australia-US exchange rate is likely to surge higher faster and further than the NZ dollar-US dollar rate over coming months
Equity markets consolidated after a week where major indices in Japan, Europe and North America reached record highs. Data dependency and inflation sustainability the key policy drivers before lower rates
26th Feb 24, 7:20am
Equity markets consolidated after a week where major indices in Japan, Europe and North America reached record highs. Data dependency and inflation sustainability the key policy drivers before lower rates
Record breaking equity markets across Japan, euro area and US; Nvidia's blockbuster earnings report propels the stock higher and drives S&P500 up 2%. Market continues to pare back expectations of Fed easing
23rd Feb 24, 7:41am
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Record breaking equity markets across Japan, euro area and US; Nvidia's blockbuster earnings report propels the stock higher and drives S&P500 up 2%. Market continues to pare back expectations of Fed easing
There were limited catalysts for global asset markets overnight in the absence of first-tier economic data or fresh guidance from policy makers. But eyes are on both the Fed minutes, and the keenly awaited Nvidia corporate results
22nd Feb 24, 8:31am
There were limited catalysts for global asset markets overnight in the absence of first-tier economic data or fresh guidance from policy makers. But eyes are on both the Fed minutes, and the keenly awaited Nvidia corporate results
US equities lower, led by tech, US Treasury yields lower and USD broadly weaker. Market unperturbed by surprise cut to China's 5-year prime loan rate, scepticism that it will achieve much. NZD outperforms
21st Feb 24, 7:49am
US equities lower, led by tech, US Treasury yields lower and USD broadly weaker. Market unperturbed by surprise cut to China's 5-year prime loan rate, scepticism that it will achieve much. NZD outperforms
China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
20th Feb 24, 7:43am
China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar does appear to have more opportunity for upside over coming weeks and break above the temporary shackle at 0.6150
19th Feb 24, 8:05am
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Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar does appear to have more opportunity for upside over coming weeks and break above the temporary shackle at 0.6150
US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024
19th Feb 24, 7:53am
US producer price inflation was higher than expected and contributed to a weak tone across bond and equity markets. US treasury yields reached the highest level in 2024
Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
16th Feb 24, 7:47am
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Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
15th Feb 24, 7:45am
Global equity and bond markets rebounded from the losses triggered by the surprisingly strong US inflation data. NZD/USD edged upwards as the US dollar retraced from 2024 highs aligned with the fall in treasury yields
Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
14th Feb 24, 7:29am
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Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
13th Feb 24, 7:48am
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
12th Feb 24, 8:35am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
12th Feb 24, 7:33am
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The S&P500 closed at a record high. US CPI revisions received greater attention than usual but were unchanged. The NZD advanced despite a generally stable US dollar backdrop amid a sharp repricing of RBNZ expectations
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
9th Feb 24, 7:41am
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike
8th Feb 24, 7:49am
S&P is closing in on the 5,000 level. US treasury yields stable. ECB official pushed back against chance of near-term rate cuts. Stronger NZ labour market data contributed to higher yields and the market pricing a small chance of a hike
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
7th Feb 24, 7:53am
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
5th Feb 24, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
5th Feb 24, 7:46am
A large upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls prompts a further scaling back of market pricing for near term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields and the US dollar surge higher in response to the labour market data
US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
2nd Feb 24, 7:50am
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US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar
1st Feb 24, 7:49am
Weaker technology stocks and renewed concerns about regional banks in the US weigh on risk sentiment. Softer than expected US labour market data supported a fall in US treasury yields and weaker US dollar