The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Wednesday, January 31, 2019

The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Wednesday, January 31, 2019

The NZDUSD opens at 0.6614 (mid-rate) this morning.

The NZD is treading water with a slight bias to the downside ahead of tomorrow morning’s FOMC when the Fed are widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.

The overnight US economic data again surprised to the upside with both consumer confidence and pending home sales exceeding expectations.

The US Conference Board reported its consumer confidence index spiked up to 135.7 in July after tumbling to a revised 124.3 in June. The index had been forecast to rise to 125.0 from the 121.5 originally reported for the month of June.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported its pending home sales index jumped up by 2.8% to 108.3 in June after increasing by 1.1% to 105.4 in May. Economists had expected pending home sales to inch up by 0.5%.

The Euro-zone data releases sent mixed signals to investors with economic confidence weakening to a 40-month low while Germany’s consumer price inflation accelerated to a three-month high in July.

The European Commission reported its economic confidence index fell from 103.3 in June to 102.7 in July, its lowest level since March 2016, when the reading was 102.3.

Preliminary data from Destatis showed the consumer price index rose to 1.7% year-on-year following a 1.6% increase in June. Economists had expected the index to dip to 1.5%.

European equity markets were sharply lower on trade war fears after President Trump once again let loose on Twitter. Mr Trump said China’s economy was “doing very badly” and added negotiators “just don’t come through” on agreements, including promises to buy US farm goods.

Direction for the NZD during our trading day will come from this afternoon’s business confidence report while Australia’s inflation data will need to print on or ahead of expectations to stop the AUD from falling further. Market expectations are for the consumer price index to have risen from 1.3% to 1.6% in Q2 with the trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred inflation measure) to inch down to 1.5% from 1.6% in Q1.

Global equity markets remain mixed, - Dow +0.01%, S&P 500 -0.13%, FTSE -0.52%, DAX -2.18%, CAC -1.61%, Nikkei +0.43%, Shanghai +0.39%.

Gold prices are up 0.6% trading at $1,422 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices are sharply higher, up 2.4% trading at $58.31 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD 0.6614 -0.3%
NZDEUR  0.5929 -0.3%
NZDGBP 0.5434 0.2%
NZDJPY 71.84 -0.3%
NZDAUD 0.9618 0.1%
NZDCAD 0.8701 -0.2%
GBPNZD 1.8403 -0.2%

Upcoming Data releases (NZST):

  • 13.00 - ANZ Business Confidence
               - CNY Manufacturing PMI
  • 13:30 AU CPI q/q

 

 

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at xe money transfer in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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USD 
NZD
End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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