The Opening Bell: Where currencies start for Monday, November 19, 2012

By Dan Bell

The NZD/USD opens at 0.8115 this morning with markets still concerned about risk, pointing largely at Greece and the Middle East.

An ECB member has suggested Greece needs even more than the agreed bailout amount, talk of the Grexit up again.

Middle East tensions are high again, and the Fiscal-Cliff talks continue, adding to the potential for near term risk-aversion.

Stock markets closed on Friday: Dow Jones +0.37%, S&P +0.48%, FTSE -1.27%.

The NZD opens the crosses - 0.7850 AUD, 0.6370 EUR, 0.5110 GBP, 66.05 JPY, 0.8125 CAD.

NZ PPI numbers this morning at 10.45am, the rest of the week quiet domestically, data heavy for US and EUR.


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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here

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We also have Australian Fiscal Cliff in the mining sector that with the continuing slow down in China and cost of mining in Australia expensive many projects are going to get cancelled and some sectors will stop production by 2017.  The big issue for Australia is how it is going to maintain competitiveness when already it looks expensive this will drag on the economy over the next 5 years.  The Middle East looks like the problems can get a lot worse.  If Israel does a ground operation in Gazza. Will the Pally's get support from Turkey ?Things could get quite ugly quickly.  Additionally how many years of this before Saudi Arabai turns the same way resulting in high oil prices globally and added inflation globally.  Greece should have exited Europe 5 years ago and still they want to keep them in Europe. This will not work. Greece will exit, then Italy, then Spain etc.   Time will tell.