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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; TD rates rise, household inflation higher, NZGBs very popular, swaps on hold, NZD rises, & more

Economy / news
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; TD rates rise, household inflation higher, NZGBs very popular, swaps on hold, NZD rises, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ raised their rate card to match BNZ and Kiwibank. That has been followed by Westpac. More here. And here.

INFLATION BITES HOUSEHOLDS HARDER
Statistics NZ says the cost of living for households rose +7.2% in the year to June 2023, while food prices increased by some +12.7% for the average household.

NO SHORTAGE OF DEMAND
More than $1.7 bln was bid today in 148 separate bids for the $500 mln offered in the latest NZ Government Bond tenders. There were three tenors, all popular and all achieved yields very similar to the tender of the same tenors two weeks ago. More than $1.2 bln went unsatisfied today so there is no shortage of demand.

STUCK IN A ZOMBIE RUT
China industrial profits data has been released for June showing them falling -8.3% from June a year ago. This is better than anticipated because the decline for the first half of the year rolls up to -16.8%. That indicates the profit pressures are receding somewhat. That said, "operating income" has been bouncing along at break even for every month of 2023 and that is indicative of a zombie situation. Given the companies tracked in this data series are large state-owned enterprises mainly, that isn't a good thing.

22 YEAR HIGH
The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 5.5%, in line with market expectations and to the same level as the RBNZ OCR. It takes American benchmark borrowing costs to the highest level since January 2001.

SWAPS ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.66% and now +16 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 3.95%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.68%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged from yesterday at 4.69%, but still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which was down -2 bps at 4.64%. The UST 10 year yield is down -4 bps at 3.86% today.

EQUITIES UP EXCEPT WALL STREET
The NZX50 is marginally firmer late in its Thursday session, now up +0.1% near the close. The ASX200 is up +0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.2% in morning trade. Hong Kong is up +1.5% today in early trade. Shanghai is up +0.5%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session essentially unchanged.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1980/oz and up +US$18 from yesterday. It closed earlier in New York at US$1972/oz and earlier still at US$1966/oz in London.

NZD STABLE
The Kiwi dollar is up more than +½c from this time yesterday, now at just on 62.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmish at 92 AUc. Against the euro we also firm at 56.4 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up to 70.1.

BITCOIN STILL STUCK
The bitcoin price is little-changed again from this time yesterday at US$29,359 which was up only +0.6%. Volatility has been low at just over +/- 0.9%. 

Daily exchange rates

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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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64 Comments

There were three tenors, all popular

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"clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right..."

Te Pāti Māori proposes suite of changes in new tax policies | RNZ News

 

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Iwi will be getting hit with the 8% wealth tax stick too, right? Right??? 

 

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TPM's tax policy is absolutely the closest to what the majority of commentors here have been advocating. A serious wealth tax on property, land and empty houses in favour of a significant tax-free threshold. Perhaps take your hood of and critique it? I'm not in favour of it, but that's not the point.

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I doubt that "...the majority of commentors here...:(not including the repetitive echo chamber of the few usual suspects) will support blatant envy theft of private property rights if they take the time to consider where it could never end.

But, then again: "The theory of Communism may be summed up in one sentence: Abolish all private property." Karl Marx.

 

 

 

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The company tax rate will hit foreign resident investors the most.

However, our FDI figures shows NZ has barely attracted new investments since 2009 anyways, so this tax is probably designed to claw back some of the big margins from the Big-4 banks and Woollies - which I am all for (as are the sheer majority of Kiwis).

Foreign direct investment in New Zealand continues to increase | Stats NZ

I read some of their policies, social justice and co-governance aside (easier said than done, these being huge ideological barriers for most) their socioeconomic policies aren't all that bad.

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Lol, 90% of investment in NZ is in commercial and residential property (almost all existing). The most innovative investment at scale in NZ in last 20 years has been in converting garages to bedrooms.

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Haha true. Every time the idea of wealth taxes is floated, some commenters here and on other media platforms foresee an exodus of the wealthy from NZ.

Good time to scare foreign investors away then as they will be getting less in capital gains out of the housing market than they would've a year ago.

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Coincidentally I have today confirmed my final account setup access for my new Australian bank.

I used to be a cub scout 60 odd years ago so never forgot "Be Prepared".

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Any policy that makes 60-something Kiwis threaten to leave the country instead of 20-somethings is a step in the right direction. 

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The party said this would mean a person earning $60,000 would keep an extra $6520 a year, and a person on $90,000 would keep an extra $6220 a year. They suggested take-home pay would increase for 98 percent of people.

Seems a good idea..unless of course you earn over $300K a year?

 

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For context, NZ has the 4th highest threshold to be in the wealthiest 1% of the nation, https://www.businessinsider.com/top-one-percent-monaco-us-uk-china-rich… 

This distribution is grotesque - you can point the finger squarely at our lack of capital gains tax and property friendly taxes. I don't advocate for TPM's tax policies, but if I'm a young pakeha from a working class family you better believe I'm voting for them.

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You are right. I personally would get stung massively but for the vast majority of the population this tax policy would be a no brainer.  

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It's a tried and true strategy for a fringe party, ask for twice what you want and then give concessions to form a coalition. You end up with what you want.

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Great graph, thanks Te Kooti

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...and another reason not to get of your butt and get a job if your unemployed. Nice pay rise for staying at home!!!

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Come again?

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That's a bit harsh. Not all landlords are lazy people!

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I think he’s referring to the 800,000 boomers on old age benefit, the only benefit which isn’t means tested, and which is sending the country bankrupt

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Without disclosing too much, I earn a very reasonable amount from my primary job, and I ran TPM's policy over my income for last year. I was surprised to find that under their proposal I would still have a few hundred more in the hand.

I'm supporting a wife, two children, a decent mortgage, and an assortment of animals on that income. I very much acknowledge and appreciate the lifestyle my income affords, but it seems almost generous for TPM's policy to give me a bit more.

While I'm not keen on the wealth and business tax side of things, the income tax regime at least seems eminently reasonable of they can balance the books on it.

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Paid for by a wealth tax of 4% on >$5m and 8% >$10m. Those aren't realistic, they should have toned it down and they would have had the makings of a credible alternative to the Greens.

 

 

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So where is the wealthy Iwi taxation bracket ?

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So if you own a nice house, a holiday home, a boat, and a couple of cars you're probably getting caught. 

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Even if all but the nice house are kept overseas?

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"clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right..."

Great song

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👍😉

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Frank likes it. A lot. It’s all sensible tax options which have been proven to be feasible overseas. A good first step in getting the country back on its feet.
It’s only the kiwi inertia and “know-best” isolation mindset which has stopped this in the past. 

Next step, levelling up the super industry with Australia. Look at their investment and infrastructure funded by compulsory super. No wonder their economy is booming

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The household living costs index up again. Over the last two years, nearly a fifth of the increases in the cost of living have been due to higher interest rates. Now add in the pass-through from the extra $10 billion in interest being paid by businesses (about 5% of consumer expenditure). 

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No shortage of demand for Govt bonds paying chunky risk free returns for many years. Imagine that. 

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I know and zero capital risk weights for bank buyers. Nonetheless:

Low nominal interest rates help reduce debt servicing costs while a high incidence of negative real interest rates liquidates or erodes the real cost of government debt. Thus, financial repression is most successful in liquidating debts when accompanied by a steady dose of inflation. Inflation need not take market participants entirely by surprise and, in effect, it need not be very high (by historic standards). Link 

Bottom line - you need to own a lot of them to make the risk free aspect overcome inflation concerns in one's own life time, but they never ring up asking to unblock the dunny. 

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Historical moment. Last night, the House Financial Services Committee of the U.S. Congress passed two pieces of legislation—with bipartisan support—that provide robust consumer protections and legislative clarity for the digital asset ecosystem. These are the “Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act” and the “Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act,"

We're a step closer to digital assets being properly regulated in the U.S. A harbinger of things to come. 

https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID…

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Time to buy more bitcorn?

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He should have an automated script to double down on it at any mention of it in the press. 

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Time to buy more bitcorn?

Only you can make that decision. But consensus among the U.S. govt and their agencies has been that BTC is a commodity anyway. So this will just go some way to bringing that into law.  

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Only you can make that decision

True.

But if you don't, you're a dumb dumb normie.

No pressure though.

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Interesting charts for anyone who is interest in sharemarket prices relative to central bank fund rate movements:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F2AXom0aIAMRJKz?format=jpg&name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F19Utj5aYAAwIB6?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

In recent recessions, the majority of asset price destruction occurs as the funds rate falls - not as the rates are rising.

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No Buyer at any price.

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I think this is confusing correlation with causation. Post GFC both tanked. This time around we won’t see a tanking of rates.

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This time around we won’t see a tanking of rates

Big call there. Central bankers have limited imaginations and fewer tools.

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"Investors should keep a close eye on the 10-year Treasury yield The last 2 moves above 4% resulted in blowups in financial markets: UK pension fund and US regional bank"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1368mXakAEyOwv?format=jpg&name=large

https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1683824425622474754?s=20

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Is it just me or is TPM and Greens becoming so extreme that Labour's perhaps not so obvious coalition partner is National is a center party like TOP or even National...?

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Just you. Nothing extreme in their tax policy if you look outside our borders

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Its not just you, I made the identical comment in another forum earlier today.

It's time for playschool to be shutdown & the adults back in the room.

 

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What particularly do you find juvenile about it? What specific elements?

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Kiwikids has made his problem clear in an earlier post - the idea is socialist, communist, Marxist...

And people believe only lefties love their labels!

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Just for the record the Effective Fed Funds rate tomorrow will be 5.33%.

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Lower GST on food is putting straight away a cost on lots of SME business. They need new accounting software. At who knows what cost. We should keep it simple.

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Its completely virtue signalling nonsense, ultimately adding back into the major supermarket chains profit margins.

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? You just select nil GST when entering in a bag of spuds...not rocket science.

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It's about the added step, not the complexity of it.

A 15 minute daily safety meeting is braindead stuff, but it costs $5000 per year, per person in productivity (or more, or less depending on role). Someone pays, and it's usually the customer. 

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Death by a thousand cuts.

Lack of understanding of opportunity costs.

Maybe nz compartive lack of productivity improvement is in fact:

productivity gains made minus productivity losses = treading water.

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Mmmm, productivity losses, plus the disencentive to any additional growth or investment.

The government has told industry that the future is constant re-calibration and increases of rules and procedures. No business model is safe, and anything you invest can go just like that.

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And what food. 

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More complex than that. You have to adjust the gst claimable on the inputs, such as transport power etc. The fridge has exempt and non exempt items - so you can’t claim the gst on all of it, same with delivery truck etc etc. bloody nightmare of compliance. 

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Don't agree. The fridge only has to pass the test that "it is essential for your business".

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.

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The rules are not written.  And if that is the rule created then the tax effect is even worse. 

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That's FUD...it's only the cost of fruit and vege sold...not all the input costs. Some very poor commentary on this, just check Ozis system

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Nothing to see there, everything is hokey dokey, no recession forthcoming there nor here!!!

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More than $1.7 bln was bid today in 148 separate bids for the $500 mln offered in the latest NZ Government Bond tenders.

The associated interpolated mid swap yield for the 1.5%, 15/05/31 (7.7918yr) tender issue is quoted at -8.55bps to the note yield, indicating dealer reluctance to extend balance sheet capacity for those seeking to be in receipt of fixed unless a premium is extracted.  

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What's the matter with our bond tender systme? If $1.2b went home uninvested, why isn't that used to bid down the rates until equilibrium?

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On our planet earth – as opposed to the very different planet that economists seem to be on – all markets are rationed. In rationed markets a simple rule applies: the short side principle. It says that whichever quantity of demand or supply is smaller (the ‘short side’) will be transacted (it is the only quantity that can be transacted). Meanwhile, the rest will remain unserved, and thus the short side wields power: the power to pick and choose with whom to do business. Examples abound. For instance, when applying for a job, there tend to be more applicants than jobs, resulting in a selection procedure that may involve a number of activities and demands that can only be described as being of a non-market nature (think about how Hollywood actresses are selected), but does not usually include the question: what is the lowest wage you are prepared to work for?

Thus the theoretical dream world of “market equilibrium” allows economists to avoid talking about the reality of pervasive rationing, and with it, power being exerted by the short side in every market. Thus the entire power dimension in our economic reality – how the short side, such as the producer hiring starlets for Hollywood films, can exploit his power of being able to pick and choose with whom to do business, by extracting ‘non-market benefits’ of all kinds. The pretense of ‘equilibrium’ not only keeps this real power dimension hidden. It also helps to deflect the public discourse onto the politically more convenient alleged role of ‘prices’, such as the price of money, the interest rate. The emphasis on prices then also helps to justify the charging of usury (interest), which until about 300 years ago was illegal in most countries, including throughout Europe.

However, this narrative has suffered an abductio ad absurdum by the long period of near zero interest rates, so that it became obvious that the true monetary policy action takes place in terms of quantities, not the interest rate.

Thus it can be plainly seen today that the most important macroeconomic variable cannot be the price of money. Instead, it is its quantity. Is the quantity of money rationed by the demand or supply side? Asked differently, what is larger – the demand for money or its supply? Since money – and this includes bank money – is so useful, there is always some demand for it by someone. As a result, the short side is always the supply of money and credit. Banks ration credit even at the best of times in order to ensure that borrowers with sensible investment projects stay among the loan applicants – if rates are raised to equilibrate demand and supply, the resulting interest rate would be so high that only speculative projects would remain and banks’ loan portfolios would be too risky.

The banks thus occupy a pivotal role in the economy as they undertake the task of creating and allocating the new purchasing power that is added to the money supply and they decide what projects will get this newly created funding, and what projects will have to be abandoned due to a ‘lack of money’.

It is for this reason that we need the right type of banks that take the right decisions concerning the important question of how much money should be created, for what purpose and given into whose hands. These decisions will reshape the economic landscape within a short time period.

Moreover, it is for this reason that central banks have always monitored bank credit creation and allocation closely and most have intervened directly – if often secretly or ‘informally’ – in order to manage or control bank credit creation. Guidance of bank credit is in fact the only monetary policy tool with a strong track record of preventing asset bubbles and thus avoiding the subsequent banking crises. But credit guidance has always been undertaken in secrecy by central banks, since awareness of its existence and effectiveness gives away the truth that the official central banking narrative is smokescreen. Link

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