What happened Wednesday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; housing market lifts, food prices jump, rents up sharply, NZSF stars again, fewer scams, swaps stable, NZD soft, & more

13th Sep 23, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
HSBC has completely withdrawn from the local mortgage market.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union raised most of rates today. Separately, HSBC confirmed is no longer taking retail deposits, even the very short ones it had for a while. SBS Bank got rid of all its tier levels in its Prospector Call account. And they raised TD rates for all terms to 9 months.

CONFIDENCE RETURNING
The REINZ said the national median house price dropped slightly in August, but sales lifted, days to sell decreased, and both Auckland and Wellington saw month-on-month rises in median prices. ANZ economists say the housing market has 'convincingly turned a corner'.

A CURIOUS (BIG) DIFFERENCE
Grocery food prices rose +10.6% in August from a year ago. Overall food prices were up +8.9% in the same period according to Stats NZ. What is interesting is that the Infometrics tracking recorded costs to Foodstuffs were up +6.6%. So what happened to the 4% difference between Foodstuffs +6.6% cost increase, and overall grocery price increases of +10.6%? Sure, supermarkets sell more than food items, but it does make up the great bulk of their activity.

SAVING FOR FUTURE LIABILITIES
The NZ Super Fund rode another global share market wave with +11.9% return in the year to June 2023. Its portfolio value increased by +$9.7 bln to a record high $64.5 bln. This is a lot for a fund that started in 2001, pays full taxes on all its results, and had to suffer through a nine-year period when the [National] government made no contributions. For comparison, KiwiSaver funds cumulatively now have a portfolio value of $100.8 bln (T43) where contributions are high and earnings relatively much lower. Between these two programs, that is now $31,600 per person. Five years ago it was $18,400. Ten years ago it was $9,100 per person.

RENTS ON MOVE UP, SOME EYE-WATERING
Nationally, rents were up for new rental agreements by +6.2% in August from a year ago. Apart from the unusual April 2022 spike, this is the fastest rise in rents since 2007. Rents in Auckland (+8.3%), Christchurch (+8.7%), and regional South Island (+7.1%) are leading the charge. Including existing tenancies, rents were up +4.1% and that was the most since 2008.

CLIMATE-AWARE SHEEP
At a Pāmu farm near Taupo, Landcorp, MPI, Focus Genetics, and AgResearch have joined forces on a 7-year ‘Sheep of the Future’ program. The goal is sheep with finer wool, greater tolerance for hot weather, top meat quality traits, and lower methane emissions. Various breeds are in the program, adding genetic diversity. The control flock is Romney.

FEWER SCAMS & FRAUD INCIDENTS
CERT NZ was involved in 1950 "incident reports" about individuals and businesses and their problems with bad actors on the internet. This is less than the the two-year average. Also lower were scams and fraud incidents (down by -24% from Q1), and Denial of Service attacks (there were none in Q2). But there was a big increase in phishing (including smishing) and credential harvesting. Phishing is where a bad actor tries to induce a disclosure of personal data/codes via email. Smishing is shere that is done via text messaging. (There is also a rising trend among those affected to blame others when they are caught, including even after they have been warned. TV shows encourage this blame-shifting.)

'BANKS ARE NOT OUR FRIEND'
Farmers want an inquiry into rural banking. As interest rates rise, so does pressure on rural businesses and Fed Farmers members want to find someone to blame for the extra stress and uncertainty. They are also suspicious of the banks using sustainability initiatives like the Net-Zero Banking Alliance to drive lower emissions through lending conditions. Fed Farmers is framing this as 'anti-competitive'. Their May 2023 banking survey showed that a majority of the 1017 respondents remain satisfied with their banks, with 56% very satisfied or satisfied, but this was down three points from the November survey. It probably hasn't improved since May.

MUCH NEW POLICY RELEASED
There was a large amount of party political policy released today and uploaded to our policy comparison tool. There is too much to summarise here, but the parties who pitched new policy include ACT, the Greens, TOP, and Te Pati Maori. We also started getting NZ First policy releases, some full length, some just bumper-sticker type.

JAPANESE PPI EASES AGAIN
In Japan, producer prices rose by 3.2% in the year to August, slowing slightly from a downwardly revised 3.4% gain in July. It was the lowest rise since March 2021. The latest figure also marked the eighth consecutive month of a slowdown in producer inflation in Japan.

JAPANESE BUSINESS MOOD IMPROVES
Meanwhile, business sentiment in Japan rose its most in August of any month in 2023, especially large businesses.

FULL EMPLOYMENT RECORD
And in South Korea, their jobless rate fell to its lowest ever to 2.4% of their workforce (or 2.0% on an unadjusted basis).

SWAPS ON HOLD AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates were probably little-changed again today across the whole curve. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.67%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp to 4.16%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged 5.04%, but still above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 4.99% which was also unchanged today. The UST 10 year yield is unchanged at 4.29%.

EQUITIES SHINE IN TOKYO, SINK IN AUSTRALIA
The NZX50 is down -0.2% near today's close in lackluster trade. But the ASX200 is down -0.9% in early afternoon trade. Hong Kong is down -0.2% at its open, as is Shanghai. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday trade up +0.9%. And the S&P500 ended down -0.6% in Tuesday trade on Wall Street.

GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1909/oz and down -US$13 from this time yesterday. Earlier in New York it closed at US$1913/oz also, and earlier still in London at US$1908/oz.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar has fallen -¼c to 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -¼c at 54.8 euro cents. The TWI-5 is down to just over 68.2.

BITCOIN REVERSES YESTERDAY'S FALL
The bitcoin price is much higher, holding its overnight gains and now at US$25,921 and up +3.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.6%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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134 Comments

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 4:02pm 1694577721

Big rent rises - low quality mass immigration, the gift that keeps giving!!!!!

by Nifty1 | 13th Sep 23, 4:17pm 1694578660

BAU for our Government... time & time again they do what they can to save the property market whilst screwing over your average kiwi.

by Baywatch | 13th Sep 23, 4:34pm 1694579684

Don't worry about it, we are creaming it!

New Zealand's national average salary reached

reached $70,000 for the first time, according to the latest Trade Me Jobs data. The average salary of $70,069 in the second quarter of 2023 was 6.1 per cent higher than the same period last year.11/07/2023

by Jamin | 13th Sep 23, 5:38pm 1694583480

Hmm ….. so the average salary is now in the high income tax bracket? They probably won’t adjust the income brackets, just rename them.

by dumbthoughts | 13th Sep 23, 4:39pm 1694579955

Ok so what party do you vote for to even so much as take a stand against the madness?

Labour - "You can totally trust us this time around, it's not like we've made this mess worse than ever"
National - A party that exists to represent the interests of businesses and investors that profit from your aforementioned 'gift that keeps on giving'? Pull the other one, it plays that song that says "go on and fool me".
ACT - Same as above, but with guns.
Greens - Somehow they haven't worked out that saving the environment is a heck of a lot harder when you're flooding the country with new inhabitants (the less economically viable the better) placing demand on resources.
NZ First - The party you could always depend on to at least talk about immigration seems to have no reference to it whatsoever on their policy page (but hey at least Dargaville will get an aerodrome and you won't have to worry about accidentally sharing the toilets with a man)
TOP - Wasn't the cat hater opposed to mass immigration - what's changed under Raf's stewardship? Oh well it's all academic anyway as I'd have a better chance of travelling back in time and beating Muhammad Ali in a 15 round title fight than TOP has of getting 5%.

by Nifty1 | 13th Sep 23, 4:48pm 1694580497

Clearly there's no good options...

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 5:00pm 1694581233

Exactly.

by Rob Reid | 13th Sep 23, 10:58pm 1694602736

Consolation is they barely matter now anyway. We've borrowed up a storm on land speculation so have put the Fed in charge.

by Foxglove. | 13th Sep 23, 5:36pm 1694583401

Where are the Serious McGillicuddy Party then, when you need ‘em?

by Hamish | 13th Sep 23, 6:25pm 1694586318

We're past that now. They would have to rebrand as the sensible party.

by tis i | 13th Sep 23, 6:35pm 1694586913

#bringbackMcGillicuddy

by redcows1 | 13th Sep 23, 6:55pm 1694588125

Their call was for the Great Leap Backwards. The Lard had to quit when it was obvious the main parties had already achieved his dream for him.

by Foxglove. | 13th Sep 23, 7:25pm 1694589932

Final showdown, a pub brawl on election day resulting in the ejection of the Laird. Followed by an unenlightened judge ruling, ignoring the ruinous consequences on a budding political career.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 7:12pm 1694589160

I have decided today I am not going to vote. All options are dire. No thanks and piss off to all of them.

by tis i | 13th Sep 23, 7:41pm 1694590860

Yeah. I’m tempted to cross every candidate and every party out and draw a big c&b across the whole paper.

by Pa1nter | 13th Sep 23, 6:23pm 1694586213

You really need some sort of party that has its policy endorsed by an online voting base, that only has a small amount of very specific policy. That would hold the reins of power under MMP and you'd have its policy enacted under urgency.

by Nzdan | 13th Sep 23, 6:27pm 1694586435

Structure the election promises into key performance indicators. Political parties must present promises with measurable outcomes. Tie their salary to meeting the key milestones of each promise.

I would go one step further and deduct points using a score weighting system should a party seek to be re-elected and not fulfil previous term promises but that would interfere with a democratic voting process.

by WellingtonInvestor | 13th Sep 23, 4:50pm 1694580645

I feel NZ is repeating the mistakes the UK made in the last 3 decades.

by kiwikidsnz | 13th Sep 23, 4:03pm 1694577782

"So here's my question - GDP growth up to June 2024 is forecast to be just over 1% (the forecast has been raised slightly from 1.0 to 1.3%). On the other hand, it is also stated immigration is now running at 100,000 a year, corresponding to an increase in 2% of our entire population. But if total GDP is only growing at a bit over 1% and the population is growing at 2%, then GDP per capita must be declining (since GDP per capita equals total GDP over population size)."

ROB MacCULLOCH: NZ's Big News Story should be ... (bassettbrashandhide.com)

by RCD | 13th Sep 23, 4:09pm 1694578159

You only counted IMmigration, if you take away the EMmigration then it might make more sense

by kiwikidsnz | 13th Sep 23, 4:44pm 1694580297

Not my article however net migration is running ~100kpa

NZ experienced record net migration gain in July year, Statistics NZ says | interest.co.nz

Plus natural increase (births minus deaths) ~20kpa

by sparrow | 13th Sep 23, 4:44pm 1694580260

Natural population growth for the year was only 19,100. (Births minus deaths.)

That will only keep decreasing, not many can afford to pay for housing and raise a family.

by kiwikidsnz | 13th Sep 23, 4:45pm 1694580351

Snap, i edited as you posted. Thanks.

by blobbles | 13th Sep 23, 4:27pm 1694579226

This is why GDP is a stupid indicator unless its per capita. And growth rates should also be expressed in GDP per capita. But apparently "its too hard to understand" or something.

by J.C. | 13th Sep 23, 4:44pm 1694580293

This is why GDP is a stupid indicator unless its per capita. And growth rates should also be expressed in GDP per capita. But apparently "its too hard to understand" or something.

Yes indeed. Aussie is in a per cap recession already and Mad Albo continues on his path of destruction with the mental immigration policy.

Indirectly related, former immigration minister Tuariki Delamere looks like he was looking at fattening his wallet through a 'game of mates' business to get people visas.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/former-nz-first-immigration-minister-tuar…;

by sparrow | 13th Sep 23, 4:46pm 1694580390

Even worse if you consider all the infrastructure that hasn't been built to accommodate the extra 100,000.

And I notice the hospitality labour shortage is over, while the healthcare crisis is worse than ever.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 5:10pm 1694581829

Our healthcare system was at breaking point even before this stupidity of mass immigration.

Absurd, and effectively treating existing citizens and residents of this country with disdain.

But all very calculated - prop up big business and the property market.

To hell with all the sick people on long waiting lists.

by Pa1nter | 13th Sep 23, 6:25pm 1694586359

Our healthcare system is clogged up with ailing old people.

Someone working needs to pay for it.

What's the average age of our migrants (don't actually know, are they mostly retirees?)?

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 7:00pm 1694588439

From my recent visits lots of younger people from a particular part of the world.

Our healthcare system could be resourced properly if we had our priorities right. Much fewer bureaucrats and much fewer roading projects. And much fewer vanity projects (of which there are many)

by Pa1nter | 13th Sep 23, 7:13pm 1694589208

Checking out the Ministry of Health stats, 40% of Hospital admissions were over 65s. 17% were Maori. I believe you live in one of the most desirable areas in Auckland for Asians to live, so id expect them to feature heavily at your medical facilities.

Anything can be resourced properly if given priority. In the case of our health system, it probably needs hundreds of percent more resources. I'm not sure there's enough fat to trim.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 7:22pm 1694589730

Lots of 30-something people from the subcontinent at the A&E. In each of 3 recent visits.

by Pa1nter | 13th Sep 23, 7:25pm 1694589959

They make up 5% of hospital stays (all Asians) and their average stay is 50% of the average stay.

Although it sounds like white dudes in their 40s make lots of visits too......

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 7:41pm 1694590901

There is more to the healthcare system than hospitals...

I have relayed my frustrations before on the time it takes in getting to see a GP, and then getting to see a psychiatrist (for my daughter).

There’s a huge amount of mental health issues amongst our young people. As a part time university lecturer I see it every week.

by Gracey | 13th Sep 23, 7:50pm 1694591441

I'm so sorry your daughter is struggling. So many young people are. No-one will listen. I am on the front line of healthcare and the lack of concern from people not involved is driving me nuts. I KNOW where the issues are, and young people are one of the issues. I hope you all come through this ok. I hope everyone comes through this ok. Health issues do, and will, come to everyone. I am tired of the 'I didn't know how bad it was until I/my family member/friend' was affected. Maybe people should listen to us, those affected and those trying to help with horrendously limited resources, because we know.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 8:03pm 1694592191

Thank you 🙏

Yes unless you directly experience it, I think most people are oblivious to how serious and dire this situation is.

It’s a massive issue and a ‘ticking time bomb’ for this country.

by Pa1nter | 13th Sep 23, 8:28pm 1694593711

Teenage suicide rates are fairly atrocious. More worryingly, amoung young females.

There is unfortunately an epidemic of mental health issues in our society. We lack the resources, but more importantly an understanding about why this has become so prevalent, and how to alter society to create happier children (and adults), instead of scared and depressed ones. I feel the foundation lies in the lack of real social interaction. But there could also be other environment factors at play.

Having had several close encounters in this realm, my heart goes out to your daughter and family. Very hard if someone is in the middle of a personal crisis, but often it's good to count off the basics (enough sleep/fresh air/time away from social media/some sort of constructive distraction).

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 8:38pm 1694594292

Thank you 🙏

And while it’s hardest on our daughter, it also takes its toll and my wife and I.

Times this by hundreds of thousands across the country…

by meh | 13th Sep 23, 9:33pm 1694597587

Yep the support needs to include any affected caregivers too.

I hope the situation works out for your family.

Many do struggle to access basic support and I think for many there is still a shame stigma which can prevent them from reaching out.

by meh | 13th Sep 23, 9:26pm 1694597164

And NZ already had shocking youth suicide statistics.

I've had my own personal experiences in this realm and the level of support is quite horrendous. Not only is there the waiting times but the industry itself and the knowledge is quite dysfunctional, and much of it seems beholden to big pharma. In most cases you're merely a file number.

I've been following the epidemic for some time. There's almost and overload of information not only in healing modalities but also the causes. Everything from adverse effects in childhood to the alienation and narcissism prevalent in our economic model of competition, greed etc. In addition there's the financial and environmental stresses. Two income homes and less quality family time and bonding is probably the biggest issue along with the influence of social media. I believe there are many people more sensitive to many of the issues and it affects them in many ways. In many ways our focus on the material, getting ahead, money, economic productivity, technology driven entertainment etc has separated us from the true values we need as humans. We have created a very unnatural environment.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 9:33pm 1694597590

I have also been reading around the increasing scientific evidence of the link between inflammation and depression. And the modern lifestyle is very inflammatory- diet, increasing prevalence of allergies, stress and, dare I say it, all the vaccinations people have to have may have an impact too.

by Pa1nter | 13th Sep 23, 9:51pm 1694598699

There likely isn't one single cause and instead an interplay between physiology and behaviour. But you can obviously improve baseline wellbeing via diet, lifestyle and exercise.

Definitely no easy answer, you want to be helping your daughter, while at the same time not making a big deal about it (to her).

by Pa1nter | 13th Sep 23, 9:57pm 1694599041

I've been following the epidemic for some time. There's almost and overload of information not only in healing modalities but also the causes. Everything from adverse effects in childhood to the alienation and narcissism prevalent in our economic model of competition, greed etc.

The narcissism is a product of our increasingly individualised lives than our economic model (the latter just exploits it). One theory is that such pathologies used to be useful for tribal war parties, but anyone not towing the groups' line usually got the short sharp shift. Now someone can be a douche their whole lives without any serious ramifications.

It would seem though the underlying driver is cultural.

by meh | 13th Sep 23, 10:09pm 1694599741

I agree the narcissism is definitely extenuated by the model. One could say only a narcissist wants to rule the world and have power over others and gets to write the rules for their subjects. Many studies suggest that many CEO's etc are closer to sociopaths/narcissists in order to achieve their position. It would seem many now have to develop narcissistic traits just to get by in this world.

by Pa1nter | 13th Sep 23, 10:35pm 1694601317

Certain roles are going to attract a disproportionate number of pathological narcissists. It does seem like our leadership roles are going to increasingly be dominated by them.

There are some areas though that are still primarily rewarded based on outcome over all. Sorting out the wheat from the chaff is easier said than done though.

by singautim | 13th Sep 23, 10:03pm 1694599419

I was an immigrant and now I'm a retiree. My wife will retire in three years. Should INZ request the medical exam to identify immigrants likely to die before 65? That would make sense if immigration is only about positive tax contribution.

by Mr_Jolly | 15th Sep 23, 6:28am 1694716110

Our health-care system is also clogged up with fat people and that's going to get worse.

by dumbthoughts | 13th Sep 23, 6:30pm 1694586626

The hospitality industry etc should have been told "on yer bike". It's not exactly like it's a high value industry and let's not pretend its skilled work in the sense that actually matters (compared with nurses, doctors etc).

What do we have to show now for the government caving in to the demands? Like yay, I can pay $50 per head for a passable meal and drink ... my problems are solved.

Life doesn't end if you have to wait another five minutes for your takeaway flat white, or if you can't get a chicken kebab on Uber Eats after a night on the Stellas.

Life does end for somebody if they can't get seen in time in A&E because it's over capacity with all this extra introduced demand. But hey, at least the pizza place stayed open.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 7:02pm 1694588528

Exactly. If they can’t survive because they don’t want to pay kiwis properly too bad. There’s far too many restaurants, bars and cafes anyway.

by JimboJones | 13th Sep 23, 7:24pm 1694589863

GDP and GDP per capita are both useful indicators of different things. For example Luxembourg has a higher GDP per capita than the US, but that doesn’t make it a more powerful country than the US. It’s almost like revenue and profit for a business, both very useful measures.

But yeah when it comes to GDP growth, per capita is probably a more useful statistic.

by Te Kooti | 13th Sep 23, 4:17pm 1694578654

Wholesale swap rates were probably little-changed again today across the whole curve. But the real reaction will come at the close

Not sure I understand this. There is very little trade in any product on the NZ close, trying to influence where the market closes has been a jailable offence for nearly a decade.

by CrispyKahawai | 13th Sep 23, 4:26pm 1694579167

Is David going to Jail? :(

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Sep 23, 4:24pm 1694579073

Taking away interest deductibility and high interest rates mean rents were going to go up. Math, its just not friendly sometimes.

As for banks screwing the farming sector, another shock! Everyone lines up on that sector - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvPugcb7QGE

by Zack Brando | 13th Sep 23, 4:47pm 1694580464

Taking away interest deductibility is fine in a declining housing market, where the goal is to lower house prices and force people to sell their properties for less than the original purchase price.

Stupid policy in a rising housing market, IF the goal is for people to retain their properties.

by WellingtonInvestor | 13th Sep 23, 4:52pm 1694580747

But the Finance Minister said that this wouldn't necessarily occur when he introduced this change.

by malamah | 13th Sep 23, 5:08pm 1694581716

Conversely reintroducing interest deductibility and lower interest rates will not bring rents down, just ask those who lead by example.

No matter how the coin flips, the country loses. Vote with our feet I guess?

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Sep 23, 5:12pm 1694581952

Yes, sadly I think you have the right answer.

Serviceability will hold prices from racing away but the reintroduction of interest deductibility and the immigration will ensure they don't fall too far. Who would stay and be assured of renting for ever when they could take a 4 hour flight and live a real life?

by E46 | 14th Sep 23, 1:38am 1694612317

We can also see in Australia, where they still have full fat negative gearing and tax rinsing, that the rental increases are even worse than here.

Really our rental increases aren't that wild and I definitely remember rents still going up even when interest rates were trending downwards, it seems the main influencing factor on rents is demand.

by Murray Falconer | 13th Sep 23, 11:27pm 1694604471

it seems the main influencing factor on rents is demand

Exactly, and demand is from population growth which is why I have been advocating TOP bring back Gareths original immigration policy: (1) Facebook

by TommyYank-old | 14th Sep 23, 5:07am 1694624828

Kiwis can be happy that they don't have Biden's immigration policy. Over 7000 per day walking across the Southern Border-that's a rate of near 2.5 million a year-and that doesn't count the "got aways". Border Patrol set ‘bookout’ targets to bring migrant custody numbers to ‘manageable’ levels amid new surge (foxnews.com)

by Murray Falconer | 14th Sep 23, 9:21am 1694640100

NZ is lucky to be an Island alright. Everything we do, we do to ourselves. We're also hurting those that pay for jobs that never existed by having stupid policy which I find equally disgusting.

by Jamin | 13th Sep 23, 5:48pm 1694584133

Love that aeroplane clip. Just laughed my arse off.

by vman | 13th Sep 23, 4:36pm 1694579765

"The NZ Super Fund rode another global share market wave with +11.9% return in the year to June 2023. Its portfolio value increased by +$9.7 bln to a record high $64.5 bln. This is a lot for a fund that started in 2001, pays full taxes on all its results, and had to suffer through a nine-year period when the [National] government made no contributions.

On a Newshub debate with the Tamaki candidates in a quickfire question round at the end,they were asked their policy on Superfund contributions Brooke Van V said ACT would 'pause' them,

Simon O'Connor said "I think we want to restart them when we can..."

It was then pointed out to him that contributions were in fact in place currently...he didn't seem to know what was going on.See around the 16:20 mark below;

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/09/election-2023-hot-seats…

by sparrow | 13th Sep 23, 4:49pm 1694580559

It was National under Key and English that stopped contributions and missed a huge bull run that would have left us a lot better off.

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Sep 23, 5:09pm 1694581788

Yes that was when I started to doubt John new what he was doing, JBird was the promise of new that I was looking for in 2017 but unfortunately what she wanted and what she delivered were orthogonal.

by Nzdan | 13th Sep 23, 6:08pm 1694585292

The same National Party that in 1975 garnered an almost majority vote from the Boomers to scrap compulsory Super, which if it had continued to this day would (using 2007's estimated value) have fully funded our non-means tested Super with $10b to spare using the most recent returns of 11.9%.

by Frank Sobotka | 13th Sep 23, 7:55pm 1694591705

Yep, National “good for the economy”.

Sam Stubbs covered it well, the worst decision made by a NZ politician EVER

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300327451/the-worst-decision-by-a-…

by Baywatch | 13th Sep 23, 9:08pm 1694596087

Simon O'Connor is more interested in controlling women's health options than a silly superfund.

by John from Bunnings | 13th Sep 23, 4:36pm 1694579783

Rents are actually dropping in real terms because the increase is lower than infla...

by J.C. | 13th Sep 23, 4:52pm 1694580768

Aussie property developer Tim Gurner hitting out at productivity and the need for unemployment to go higher. But what he really wants is more low-cost wage slaves to build his properties so that he can sell more investment properties.

“I’m surprised [at talk of cuts to migration] because the problem is productivity and efficiency to deliver apartments,” he said. “We’ve lost all the Eastern Europeans [and Chinese] who were all of our plasterers and ... painters ... We absolutely have to have immigration.”

The level of migration was a significant source of debate at the Summit on Tuesday. Net overseas migration is expected to have been about 400,000 in the 12 months to June 30 and 315,000 this financial year, far surpassing Australia’s pre-pandemic annual migrant intake of about 235,000.

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/big-jump-in-unemployment-neede…

by Murray Falconer | 13th Sep 23, 11:41pm 1694605263

We’ve lost all the Eastern Europeans [and Chinese] who were all of our plasterers and ... painters ... We absolutely have to have immigration.

Pity no one thought to make notes while they were still in the country so they could train existing residents to do these impossibly difficult crafts. Guess they can't teach it over the internet either.

by Kiwisaint | 13th Sep 23, 5:01pm 1694581285

Does anyone else find that 11.9% return not particularly impressive? Even my S&P 500 ETF tracker is up 13.46% over the last year...

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Sep 23, 5:14pm 1694582060

Agreed, but the measures are fixed income not equities.

by Te Kooti | 13th Sep 23, 5:14pm 1694582077

Still benchmarking against the NZ t-bill which is ridiculous. In 21/22 a third of their portfolio was either Level 3 or not measured at fair value - So mark-to-make-believe.

by Grattaway | 13th Sep 23, 5:16pm 1694582162

after tax though

So Robbo could have balanced the books by borrowing another 100 billion and chucking it into the super fund

Opportunity lost!

by J.C. | 13th Sep 23, 5:33pm 1694583228

It's only slightly higher than gold in the past 12 months so arguably not particularly impressive. Nevertheless, don't be surprised if equities go nowhere for an extended period of time.

by Nzdan | 13th Sep 23, 6:12pm 1694585559

Would have been impressive if we kept contributing since 1975. By 2007 the scheme would have been worth an estimated $240b. What's 11.9% of $240b? Well it's $10b more than our annual non-means tested Superannuation spend that all over 65 who were alive to vote in 1975 feel so entitled to receive.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ibrian-gaynori-how-muldoon-threw-aw…

by Frank Sobotka | 13th Sep 23, 8:03pm 1694592217

Here’s an update from 2021

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300327451/the-worst-decision-by-a-…

by Te Kooti | 13th Sep 23, 9:46pm 1694598378

Sorry, that's a load of bollox. We could have invested in infrastructure which would be worth today 3x what it cost in 2005 and be increasing our productivity. A second harbour bridge or tunnel, new motorway North, better rail network - it would all be worth a lot more today and make us way more productive.

The idea that Super Fund is some amazing alpha factory is just so far from the truth. Oh look, we had the Harbour Bridge revalued and it's gone up 11.9%, let's pay someone a bonus.

Instead, we are paying hedge funds and private equity 2% & 20% to invest in other countries infrastructure, what a debacle.

by mills | 13th Sep 23, 11:14pm 1694603694

And you really believe the billions of dollars built up in a fund run exclusively by government plus investment income, would be still available today to pay to those contributors now retiring? I'll sell you a bridge?

A majority of voters at the time thought not! In the interim period we have had many hundreds of politicians each with imaginative uses for this large piggy bank,...flood relief/pandemic issues, or even just using the fund's colossal credit to borrow widely for all manner of other foolish state spending.

The Kiwisaver, being administered by the individual's choice is a much better scheme, (albeit it lacks complulsion) although it is still too new to be confident that foolishness or corruption might eat away individuals' retirement nest eggs.

by Frank Sobotka | 13th Sep 23, 8:02pm 1694592125

Yup, franks 401k is up 30.3%. No woke-ESG for this working class man

by Te Kooti | 13th Sep 23, 9:48pm 1694598506

Utes and houses for us Frank, keep it simple eh.

by NoRegrets | 13th Sep 23, 5:12pm 1694581967

Surprised there isn’t more comment about Supermarket margins growing. They are making a fortune by screwing Suppliers and Consumers.The more the Government meddles with this duopoly the more money the supermarkets make!

by JustAnOpinion | 13th Sep 23, 5:15pm 1694582106

"Release the mighty ComCom!!!"

by Frank Sobotka | 13th Sep 23, 8:05pm 1694592351

Coming soon with a wet bus ticket to slap them with

by Audaxes | 13th Sep 23, 5:14pm 1694582046

WARNING: The Banking Crisis Is NOT Over

What banking crisis? The one from just a few months back might as well has been decades ago as far as most people today are concerned. But there is a lot happening in and around the banking sector as key markets price growing trouble and the possibility for much more.

Americans Are Making 'Huge Mistake' to Believe Certain 'Booming' Economy Narratives: Jamie Dimon

by Galloleous | 13th Sep 23, 5:17pm 1694582277

Rent wise, what else do you expect property owners to do when you remove interest deductibility, and jack up interest rates hundreds of percent?

My house has gone from renting to my mates for $470 a week, to being accepted on the open market for $590 a week.

Thats a massive jump, but my interest rate has also gone from 2.5% to 4.3% and soon to ~7% and I have an extra $5k in tax to pay each year which alone removes the extra income from the rent increase. Not to mention I now have agent fees to pay as well.

by J.C. | 13th Sep 23, 5:39pm 1694583551

Rent wise, what else do you expect property owners to do when you remove interest deductibility, and jack up interest rates hundreds of percent?

I expect more of them to fill the property up with subcontinent migrant workers and jack up the rent accordingly.

That's 'behaving rationally' in Nu' Zillun. Not my cup of tea Gally but each to their own.

by James Thrace | 13th Sep 23, 6:11pm 1694585461

Why do you not fix your mortgage long term?

by Galloleous | 13th Sep 23, 6:39pm 1694587168

I was on a lower income at the time which limited my options, and I didnt want to fix for 5 years.

Now that I am in Australia my financial situation allows me some more wiggle room.

I am still only going to do 2 years again this time as I dont think there will be an increase in rates over that time period. If anything there is likely to be a decrease coming, but the drop required to make the 1 year attractive is too much. So happy middle ground with 2.

Will consider splitting a chunk into floating and another into long term but havent done the maths yet.

Overall this rent increase is not going to cover my increased costs but it is a good asset that will do well in the long term so I dont intend to sell.

by James Thrace | 13th Sep 23, 7:53pm 1694591611

Fair. I would fix long, given interest rates do need to rise further in order to allow heavily indebted governments (USA) the ability to pay down their debts.

Unless governments grow a pair and start imposing progressive taxes at the rates that existed in the 1960s (i.e. 66% over $500k adjusted for todays values) they aren’t going to pay their way back to surpluses.

my pick is for higher interest rates for longer. Not lower. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get back to 18% rates as history has a funny way of repeating itself.

just like now where NZ is finally on a path out of the mess it was left in after 2008-2017 and NZ voters want to stop that incremental path of progress and leap into the fire, but with sub machine guns.

by Yvil | 13th Sep 23, 8:15pm 1694592945

I would fix long, given interest rates do need to rise further in order to allow heavily indebted governments (USA) the ability to pay down their debts.

Whaaat ??? higher interest rates help pay down debt ???

Maybe you mean that high inflation rate helps to reduce debt over time but certainly not higher interest rates.

by Galloleous | 14th Sep 23, 8:44am 1694637895

As Yvil pointed out, I think you might have your wires crossed a little bit.

Governments need high inflation rates so that their debt looses value in real terms and they can repay it in devalued currency.

Globally, governments are trapped between crazy high debt to GDP values and high inflation. They literally can not raise rates much more than we are at already, because they will not be able to afford the interest on their debt. So given the option of going bankrupt and defaulting on their debt obligations, or just stealing the wealth of their citizens through inflation, they will ALWAYS choose to print.

It is only a matter of time before a bond auction fails, and the government forces the central bank to print money to buy their bonds.

Have a read of this, the US St Louis Fed is saying exactly this in a paper published on their webpage:

https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/kite-or-board

Or you can go straight to the paper:

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2023/06/0…

So all in all, the debt based fiat currency system needs low interest rates so that the trillions in global debt can roll over onto lower rates, which allows governments to live beyond their means and perpetually borrow money. But we have deviated from the 40 year down trend in interest rates, so I do also think what used to work (60:40 Stock:Bond portfolio) will no longer work as well going forward.

by TommyYank-old | 14th Sep 23, 4:08pm 1694664514

You have to understand that the 60's for Western Countries was Pre Abortion, and for the most part-pre the pill. Therefore each country had natural birth rates that far exceed the native population increases of the last 20 years. To expect the growth of the 60's which brought with it tremendous annual GNP growth is not likely. Today there is no domestic industrial production to act as a driver either. Therefore no huge growth to drive taxes. In the 60's fifty per cent of the population wasn't being supported by the governments either. Most were actually paying taxes as they had jobs that allowed them to pay their way in life, and housing was affordable.

by tis i | 13th Sep 23, 6:50pm 1694587826

If it doesn’t work for you, sell it.

by redcows1 | 13th Sep 23, 7:05pm 1694588742

Sounds fair I guess. Especially as landlords dropped their rent when interest rates were dropping.

Sarc

by JimboJones | 13th Sep 23, 7:31pm 1694590287

When interest rates went down all those years you were dropping the rent? And you plan to drop it when National reintroduces interest deduction? Or is it a one way thing?

by Murray Falconer | 13th Sep 23, 11:47pm 1694605624

Spoilsport!

by Galloleous | 14th Sep 23, 8:49am 1694638141

I brought it as my first home in Dec 2020.

I lived in it with borders until June last year when I moved to Aus.

And yes, as long as I can cover my costs I would consider dropping the rent as I would rather help out my tenants than make a few extra $ per week.

Or at least leave it the same.

by Sluggy | 14th Sep 23, 7:00am 1694631620

It is such a flawed business model. If you have a stack of debt propping up the "business" you are probably introducing capital on the monthly because income from the "business" doesn't cover costs. The hope is the "business" grows in price (can't call it value) and inflation makes the debt look smaller as you slowly approach death.

It's gambling, but here we call it negatively geared investing. One day when you have paid off the debt, you get to lie back as your passive investment pays out big. You will still die, it's not a cool work story.

by K.W. | 13th Sep 23, 5:37pm 1694583476

So what happened to the 4% difference between Foodstuffs +6.6% cost increase, and overall grocery price increases of +10.6%?

Retail theft. We all pay for the current lawlessness of this country.

https://www.foodstuffs.co.nz/news-room/2023/GROCERS-REPORT-59-PER-ANNUM…

And for those who are still deluded by Labour into believing that NZ is no different from everywhere else, and that retail theft is not a problem, can ponder this statistic

"Michael Hill has 165 stores in Australia, of which only one has been broken into, New Zealand has thirty-six stores with 44 break-ins"

https://www.bassettbrashandhide.com/post/alex-holland-labour-s-failures

by J.C. | 13th Sep 23, 5:41pm 1694583700

And for those who are still deluded by Labour into believing that NZ is no different from everywhere else, and that retail theft is not a problem, can ponder this statistic

It doesn't seem to happen on a regular basis across ASEAN, Korea, China, Japan. But I can't confirm that.

by vman | 13th Sep 23, 7:20pm 1694589631

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/record-retail-theft-puts-pressure-…

SYDNEY, March 2 (Reuters) - Retail theft has hit record levels in Australia, government statistics show, putting pressure on grocery giants Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW.AX) and Coles Group Ltd (COL.AX) that are already struggling with soaring supply costs and freight blockages.

Store theft rose 23.7% in New South Wales, the home state of a third of Australians, from 2021 to 2022, state government figures showed on Thursday, the fastest year-on-year increase since records began in 1995.

by vman | 13th Sep 23, 7:24pm 1694589887

Young thieves ram-raid businesses outside Brisbane | 9 News Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zazHpgwhnWE

Masked thieves target bottle shop in Melbourne's south | 9 News Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OANl5UA5Xs

by tis i | 13th Sep 23, 6:53pm 1694588024

Don’t worry. National will be along pronto to ‘fix it’.

Hahahhahahhahah aaahhhhhahaha.

by Squishy | 13th Sep 23, 5:45pm 1694583912

The REINZ said the national median house price dropped slightly in August, but sales lifted, days to sell decreased, and both Auckland and Wellington saw month-on-month rises in median prices. ANZ economists say the housing market has 'convincingly turned a corner'.

Headache for RBNZ though as the last thing they need right now is a resurgent housing market adding back to inflation right now. Are we on track for a third year of above-target inflation?

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 5:59pm 1694584760

(Slight) rise in house prices, big rise in rents, a still big rise in food prices and fuel is going to the moon.

Clearly the OCR needs to be hiked several more times.

by JimboJones | 13th Sep 23, 7:36pm 1694590619

You seem to have changed tune! I don’t think it’s clear at all, inflation seems to be tracking down which should mean no OCR changes required, but i don’t think we can say that for certain yet.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 7:45pm 1694591111

Changed my tune? Yes because it’s obvious from the data that high inflation is incredibly persistent, more so than I or anyone else expected.

How on earth can you say inflation is tracking down with today’s data? And soaring fuel costs.

by powerdownkiwi | 13th Sep 23, 8:35pm 1694594154

Not 'than anyone else'.

Parts of the planet are getting scarcer by the minute, and population is rising by the minute; only one result possible; ultimate scarcity.

Not taught in economics.

by TronMVP | 13th Sep 23, 9:49pm 1694598542

The population is still rising, but in many places the birth rate is plummeting, and this will cause huge social and economic problems. Read the novel "Children of Men" for a view of a dystopian future that many have not considered because MSM is focused on sea levels rising and more cyclones.

by JimboJones | 13th Sep 23, 9:51pm 1694598715

Food prices up 0.4% last month, that seems like a good month in comparison to 6 months ago. Fuel is going to be a problem due to the subsidy ending, but that is a one off. To me it appears to be going in the right direction, hard to say for sure but I think there are plenty of signs inflation is decreasing.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 10:25pm 1694600755

Rent? Fuel is climbing higher and higher, and is an input in to so many things…

by nz-it-worker | 13th Sep 23, 6:35pm 1694586910

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/497920/couple-sentenced-over-falsified-visas-underpaying-workers

That wet bus ticket will show ‘em.

by Nzdan | 13th Sep 23, 6:44pm 1694587475

I guess it's how they paid for their 5 bedroom 5 bathroom house on 1200 sqm of land in Dannemora.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 7:10pm 1694589059

Lol

And yet our ‘kind’ government has opened the gates! To support these ‘productive businesses’

by vman | 13th Sep 23, 7:18pm 1694589511

I think Luxon & Seymour can hear the shark music from Jaws...or perhaps visions of Jack Nicholson in 'The Shining'...Heeere's Winny...

The 1News-Varien Poll also has NZ First and Winston Peters back in Parliament.

Party support:

National: 39% (up 2 percentage points)
Labour: 28% (down 1)
Green Party: 10% (down 2)
ACT: 10% (down 3)
NZ First: 5% (up 1)
Te Pāti Māori: 3% (steady).

by vman | 13th Sep 23, 7:34pm 1694590444

https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/13/poll-more-opposition-than-support-fo…

The latest 1News Verian poll shows more Kiwis oppose National's foreign buyers plan than support it.

Of those polled, 39% supported National's plan while 46% opposed it. The rest didn't know or preferred not to say.

by realterms | 13th Sep 23, 7:52pm 1694591559

Looks totally daft to me as a (centre) marginal voter. I guess maybe it defends their other flank from ACT?

by TonyBarnett | 13th Sep 23, 8:40pm 1694594421

Not sure you should trust the Verian poll - why is it so different to Newshub-Reid Research poll’s results? (See below)

‘In our latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, we asked, should New Zealand let overseas buyers purchase homes over $2 million if they pay a tax?

More than half - 53 per cent - said yes, while 36 percent said no.’

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/09/election-2023-christoph…

by Nzdan | 14th Sep 23, 12:45am 1694609107

Which poll is more accurate and why?

by IT GUY | 13th Sep 23, 8:07pm 1694592431

Winnie has worked hard to collect up the crazies

by tis i | 13th Sep 23, 7:59pm 1694591950

https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/business/350069873/mega-landlord-who-predic…

Fuck me I’m over listening to landlords pissing and moaning about how hard their lives are.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 8:06pm 1694592414

Tom Sainsbury did a great pisstake of a ‘struggling’ landlord with 25 properties. That guy is a national treasure.

by Yvil | 13th Sep 23, 8:22pm 1694593339

Thanks for the link "tis", great article, we need morre of these!

by TronMVP | 13th Sep 23, 9:30pm 1694597409

The investor in the interview is not "pissing and moaning", and actually gives a measured view of the current situation. He does say that he will move to Australia if Labour gets in, which is what many have done already due to what Labour has done to the economy.

by tis i | 13th Sep 23, 9:44pm 1694598247

Lol. Like fuck he isn’t. He’s a spoiled little brat throwing his toys out the cot.

by TronMVP | 13th Sep 23, 10:00pm 1694599236

I'm happy to hear a reasoned argument from you.

by tis i | 14th Sep 23, 7:07am 1694632046

No you’re not.

And not only is he pissing and moaning, it’s a hollow cowardly threat. He knows full well that Labour aren’t getting back in.

by meh | 13th Sep 23, 9:57pm 1694599058

Yeah nah he's pissing and moaning - “There will be people like me who go, ‘I am just not prepared to continue to live in a society where it’s going to be so unjust and unfair’"

His measured view highlights everything wrong with the residential property investor class and why homes should never have been allowed to be corrupted in this way. Maybe it was meant to happen this way as a lesson and we're just very slow learners.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 10:38pm 1694601524

‘So unjust and unfair’ 😂😂😂😂😂

by E46 | 13th Sep 23, 9:59pm 1694599164

It's hardly measured, he's going on about how great the "wealth effect" is with zero critical thought for the negative externalities presented by skyrocketing housing costs. That isn't free, that money hasn't come from nowhere. Those higher costs get passed onto everyone, wages have to go up, food costs go up, money is sucked out of the productive economy leaving less room for other businesses.

And all the money that's been poured into housing has mostly been borrowed, that wealth is debt, and a country can't run off debt forever, you actually have to do some work at some point which becomes harder when the majority of capital is directed towards non-productive assets like housing rather than into productive assets.

by Sluggy | 14th Sep 23, 7:15am 1694632512

So the value of his assets has gone up in price markedly under labour, however rather than adjusting to the new tax situation by selling a few of the aforementioned assets to lower his debt levels and make his business work, if he doesn't see an immediate reversal he will sell all his stuff and run away. This is definitely a toy throwing exercise, and for some reason he feels he has leverage ? Marginally narcissistic.

by HouseMouse | 13th Sep 23, 8:53pm 1694595211

Australia is blessed to have Macrobusiness and a few others to call out the debacle that is mass immigration, and its impact on housing amongst other things.

Our media is too lazy / corrupted / woke to even question it.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/09/shane-oliver-rapid-immigration…

by Murray Falconer | 14th Sep 23, 12:13am 1694607181

It is time to stop scapegoating a ‘lack of supply’ and start acknowledging the immigration elephant driving Australia’s housing shortage.

Sure, but we all know how racist those Aussies can be HM.