A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; a hot 2yr home loan rate, household living costs higher than CPI, non-performing loans up swaps stable, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). It's a skinny edition today.

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Unity Money has launched a 2 year fixed rate 'special' for first home buyers of 6.45%. This is the lowest 2 year rate in the market, lower than any bank 'special'.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union has raised its bonus rater rate to 4%.

THE 'REAL' LIVING COST CHANGE
Household living costs increased +7.0% in the past year. Stats NZ said its household living-cost price indexes show that all household groups in the country faced higher cost increases in the 2023 year than the +4.7% indicated by the CPI, the official measure of inflation.

NOW $1.5 BLN IN NON PERFORMING MORTGAGES
Latest RBNZ figures show non-performing housing loans rose by almost 80% in the past year - but the stress levels are still much lower than they were after the global financial crisis.

HALF RATIONS
The Government will increase the minimum wage by +2%, or half the rate of inflation, to $23.15/hr which the Council of Trade Unions says is a cut in real terms.

NZX50 UPDATES
We have added the full profiles for the three new entrants to the NZX50. They are Channel Infrastructure (CHI, #44), the business that was known as NZ Refining. Hallenstein Glasson (HLG, #49), and Vulcan Steel (VSL, #37).

MILK COLLECTION UPDATES
Fonterra said its New Zealand milk collections in December were 176.6 million kgMS, +1.5% ahead of December last season. But their Australia milk collections in December were 10.8 million kgMS, -1.3% behind December last season.

COST OF DOING BUSINESS WITH GAMBLERS
SkyCity (SKC) has revised its provision for penalties relating to its Adelaide casino operation's AML/CFT breaches up sharply, from $49 mln to $79 mln. The Australian court will hand down its decision on the actual level on June 7, 2024.

BUILDING CONSENTS RETREAT
In Australia, residential building consent levels are falling and quite hard in some places. Overall they were down -9.5% in December. They fell in Victoria (-18.4%), South Australia (-11.8%), and Tasmania (-2.7%). Meanwhile, they rose in Queensland (+8.2%), Western Australia (+7.9%), and New South Wales (+2.0%). It was approvals for apartments that were hardest hit. 

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will probably be little-changed again today. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.67%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down another -7 bps at 4.02%. The China 10 year bond rate is down a further -5 bps at 2.44% and a new 20 year low with a sharp daily fall. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -14 bps at 4.61%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.66% and unchanged from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.95% and down -7 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2yr is at 4.29% and so that key inversion is out to -34 bps now.

EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late trade today. The ASX200 is down -1.1% in early afternoon trade, undermined by China, the Fed, and their own lower CPI. Tokyo has opened down -0.8% in early trade. Hong Kong has opened unchanged at its open but Shanghai is down -0.9% in their opening trade today. That means their index is now -5.1% lower for the 3+ days of this week so far. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. The S&P500 closed on Wall Street in Wednesday trade down -1.6% after the Fed signals late in their trading session.

OIL EASES
Oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday at just over US$76/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$81/bbl.

GOLD FIRMS FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2040 and up another +US$4 from this time yesterday. Chinese bought 30% more gold in 2023 than 2022. Not only did their central bank buy more but investors did too as great-power rivalry intensified - and the Chinese economy hit some road bumps.

NZD FIRMER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is now just on 61.2 USc and little-changed from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are more than +½c firmer again at 93.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 56.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at just over 70.6 today and up a bit less than +20 bps.

BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price fell -2.2% today, down to US$42,009. There's been moderate volatility over the past 24 hours of just over +/- 2.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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